Every season, there are pitchers who seem to be unable to buy a win. No matter how well they pitch, they seem to end up on the short end of a game more often than not. Other pitchers pitch exceptionally well and still end up with a mediocre winning percentage. Occasionally the are pitchers that have historically frustrating seasons, in which their record belies their quality pitching. Nolan Ryan's 1987 season (8-16 2.76) is a famous example. One easy way that I have found to find such seasons is to compare a pitcher's winning percentage with his ERA+. A low ratio of WL%:ERA+ indicates that a pitcher has suffered through the agony of losing a lot more than we would have expected.
Here are the leaders among ERA qualifiers for 2009:
| Rk |
|
W |
L |
W-L% |
ERA+ |
Ratio |
Age |
Tm |
Lg |
G |
GS |
SV |
IP |
H |
R |
ER |
BB |
SO |
ERA |
| 1 |
Randy Wells |
12 |
10 |
.545 |
147 |
.00371 |
26 |
CHC |
NL |
27 |
27 |
0 |
165.1 |
165 |
67 |
56 |
46 |
104 |
3.05 |
| 2 |
Jonathan Sanchez |
8 |
12 |
.400 |
103 |
.00388 |
26 |
SFG |
NL |
32 |
29 |
0 |
163.1 |
135 |
82 |
77 |
88 |
177 |
4.24 |
| 3 |
Wandy Rodriguez |
14 |
12 |
.538 |
139 |
.00387 |
30 |
HOU |
NL |
33 |
33 |
0 |
205.2 |
192 |
77 |
69 |
63 |
193 |
3.02 |
| 4 |
Tim Lincecum |
15 |
7 |
.682 |
176 |
.00388 |
25 |
SFG |
NL |
32 |
32 |
0 |
225.1 |
168 |
69 |
62 |
68 |
261 |
2.48 |
| 5 |
John Lannan |
9 |
13 |
.409 |
108 |
.00379 |
24 |
WSN |
NL |
33 |
33 |
0 |
206.1 |
210 |
100 |
89 |
68 |
89 |
3.88 |
| 6 |
Clayton Kershaw |
8 |
8 |
.500 |
141 |
.00355 |
21 |
LAD |
NL |
31 |
30 |
0 |
171.0 |
119 |
55 |
53 |
91 |
185 |
2.79 |
| 7 |
Jair Jurrjens |
14 |
10 |
.583 |
158 |
.00369 |
23 |
ATL |
NL |
34 |
34 |
0 |
215.0 |
186 |
71 |
62 |
75 |
152 |
2.60 |
| 8 |
Aaron Harang |
6 |
14 |
.300 |
102 |
.00294 |
31 |
CIN |
NL |
26 |
26 |
0 |
162.1 |
186 |
82 |
76 |
43 |
142 |
4.21 |
| 9 |
Zack Greinke |
16 |
8 |
.667 |
205 |
.00325 |
25 |
KCR |
AL |
33 |
33 |
0 |
229.1 |
195 |
64 |
55 |
51 |
242 |
2.16 |
| 10 |
Matt Garza |
8 |
12 |
.400 |
114 |
.00351 |
25 |
TBR |
AL |
32 |
32 |
0 |
203.0 |
177 |
93 |
89 |
79 |
189 |
3.95 |
| 11 |
Doug Davis |
9 |
14 |
.391 |
111 |
.00352 |
33 |
ARI |
NL |
34 |
34 |
0 |
203.1 |
203 |
101 |
93 |
103 |
146 |
4.12 |
I have added the ratios to the original list. If you click on "ratio", it will sort the list in order.
.
The top two pitchers on the list were clearly in different categories, but both were robbed of wins. Aaron Harang had a decent season and typically an ERA+ of 102 would produce a winning percentage in the .520s. Harang however, was not nearly that lucky, posting W-L record of 6-14. Zack Greinke produced a stellar season in 2009 and, as the Cy Young voters understood, his 16-8 record clearly did not represent the quality of his performance. A .750 winning percentage would have been more typical.
While he was tops in '09, Harang was no where near the all time leaders.
| Rk |
Player |
Year |
W |
L |
W-L% |
ERA+ |
Ratio |
Tm |
Lg |
G |
GS |
SV |
IP |
H |
R |
ER |
BB |
SO |
ERA |
| 1 |
Ned Garvin |
1904 |
5 |
16 |
.238 |
158 |
.00151 |
TOT |
ML |
25 |
24 |
0 |
193.2 |
155 |
85 |
37 |
80 |
94 |
1.72 |
| 2 |
Joe Harris |
1906 |
2 |
21 |
.087 |
78 |
.00112 |
BOS |
AL |
30 |
24 |
2 |
235.0 |
211 |
130 |
92 |
67 |
99 |
3.52 |
| 3 |
Walt Dickson |
1912 |
3 |
19 |
.136 |
92 |
.00148 |
BSN |
NL |
36 |
20 |
1 |
189.0 |
233 |
123 |
81 |
61 |
47 |
3.86 |
| 4 |
Frank Allen |
1913 |
4 |
18 |
.182 |
116 |
.00157 |
BRO |
NL |
34 |
25 |
2 |
174.2 |
144 |
75 |
55 |
81 |
82 |
2.83 |
| 5 |
Jack Nabors |
1916 |
1 |
20 |
.048 |
82 |
.00059 |
PHA |
AL |
40 |
30 |
1 |
212.2 |
206 |
110 |
82 |
95 |
74 |
3.47 |
| 6 |
Tom Sheehan |
1916 |
1 |
16 |
.059 |
77 |
.00077 |
PHA |
AL |
38 |
17 |
0 |
188.0 |
197 |
111 |
77 |
94 |
54 |
3.69 |
| 7 |
Dutch Henry |
1930 |
2 |
17 |
.105 |
94 |
.00112 |
CHW |
AL |
35 |
16 |
0 |
155.0 |
211 |
116 |
84 |
48 |
35 |
4.88 |
| 8 |
Eddie Smith |
1937 |
4 |
17 |
.190 |
120 |
.00158 |
PHA |
AL |
38 |
23 |
5 |
196.2 |
178 |
100 |
86 |
90 |
79 |
3.94 |
| 9 |
Art Houtteman |
1948 |
2 |
16 |
.111 |
94 |
.00118 |
DET |
AL |
43 |
20 |
10 |
164.1 |
186 |
101 |
85 |
52 |
74 |
4.66 |
| 10 |
Don Larsen |
1954 |
3 |
21 |
.125 |
82 |
.00152 |
BAL |
AL |
29 |
28 |
0 |
201.2 |
213 |
106 |
98 |
89 |
80 |
4.37 |
| 11 |
Ken Reynolds |
1972 |
2 |
15 |
.118 |
84 |
.00140 |
PHI |
NL |
33 |
23 |
0 |
154.1 |
149 |
76 |
73 |
60 |
87 |
4.26 |
| 12 |
Matt Keough |
1979 |
2 |
17 |
.105 |
81 |
.00130 |
OAK |
AL |
30 |
28 |
0 |
176.2 |
220 |
115 |
99 |
78 |
95 |
5.04 |
| 13 |
Jose DeLeon |
1985 |
2 |
19 |
.095 |
77 |
.00123 |
PIT |
NL |
31 |
25 |
3 |
162.2 |
138 |
93 |
85 |
89 |
149 |
4.70 |
I have added the ratios to the original list. If you click on "ratio", it will sort the list in order.
.
The 1916 Phillidelphia A's were historically bad with a terrible offense, and so it is no surprise that the two pitchers who top the list were both from that team. Jack Nabors and Tom Sheehan combined to go 2-36 for that dreadful bunch.
The list above seems to favor pitchers who had subpar seasons with historically bad W-L records. It might be more interesting to look at the pitchers with the lowest ratios that had ERA+ of 125 or higher. Here are the leaders:
| Rk |
Player |
Year |
W |
L |
ERA+ |
W-L% |
Ratio |
Tm |
Lg |
G |
GS |
SV |
IP |
H |
R |
ER |
BB |
SO |
ERA |
| 1 |
Ed Siever |
1902 |
8 |
11 |
196 |
.421 |
.00215 |
DET |
AL |
25 |
23 |
1 |
188.1 |
166 |
73 |
40 |
32 |
36 |
1.91 |
| 2 |
Dummy Taylor |
1902 |
8 |
18 |
132 |
.308 |
.00233 |
TOT |
ML |
30 |
29 |
0 |
234.2 |
231 |
115 |
57 |
63 |
95 |
2.19 |
| 3 |
Ned Garvin |
1904 |
5 |
16 |
158 |
.238 |
.00151 |
TOT |
ML |
25 |
24 |
0 |
193.2 |
155 |
85 |
37 |
80 |
94 |
1.72 |
| 4 |
Gene Schott |
1937 |
4 |
13 |
125 |
.235 |
.00188 |
CIN |
NL |
37 |
17 |
1 |
154.1 |
150 |
69 |
51 |
48 |
56 |
2.97 |
| 5 |
Hal Newhouser |
1942 |
8 |
14 |
161 |
.364 |
.00226 |
DET |
AL |
38 |
23 |
5 |
183.2 |
137 |
73 |
50 |
114 |
103 |
2.45 |
| 6 |
Sammy Stewart |
1981 |
4 |
8 |
156 |
.333 |
.00213 |
BAL |
AL |
29 |
3 |
4 |
112.1 |
89 |
33 |
29 |
57 |
57 |
2.32 |
| 7 |
Nolan Ryan |
1987 |
8 |
16 |
142 |
.333 |
.00235 |
HOU |
NL |
34 |
34 |
0 |
211.2 |
154 |
75 |
65 |
87 |
270 |
2.76 |
| 8 |
Joe Magrane |
1988 |
5 |
9 |
160 |
.357 |
.00223 |
STL |
NL |
24 |
24 |
0 |
165.1 |
133 |
57 |
40 |
51 |
100 |
2.18 |
| 9 |
Jim Abbott |
1992 |
7 |
15 |
144 |
.318 |
.00221 |
CAL |
AL |
29 |
29 |
0 |
211.0 |
208 |
73 |
65 |
68 |
130 |
2.77 |
| 10 |
Brandon Webb |
2004 |
7 |
16 |
129 |
.304 |
.00236 |
ARI |
NL |
35 |
35 |
0 |
208.0 |
194 |
111 |
83 |
119 |
164 |
3.59 |
I have added the ratios to the original list. If you click on "ratio", it will sort the list in order.
.
There is Ryan '87. Certainly a travesty of a season, but not the biggest. In fact, in 1904 Ned Garvin had a better ERA+ than Ryan and a much worse record.
.
On the flip side of this are pitchers whose record was much better than their ERA + would suggest. You can read about them here.