In tonight’s game against the Twins,  AJ Burnett  threw 3 wild pitches in 1 game.  While this stat is not that uncommon, Burnett became the first pitcher since 1954 to do it 3  times in 1 season.  As for the career record, Burnett now has 4 such career games. Here were the leaders (1954-2009) before tonight’s games.

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Most teams have played half their season now so it’s a good time to predict playoff winners.

I’m going to make a few posts over the next few days to show you some of the indicators I use to determine which teams have the best shot of making the playoffs.

The best indicator is, of course, those teams that are leading their divisions right now. They have the best shot of making the playoffs, and odd are that at least half the current division leaders will win their division.

The first thing I like to look at is run-scoring differential.

Let’s start in the the American League. Click that link to see the standings, and go down to the “AL East Detailed Standings” as well as the sections that follow for the other divisions.

Focus in on the following columns:

Tm      W      L      R      RA      pythWL      Luck
BOS     49    32    5.3    4.3    48-33     0
NYY     48    33    5.6    4.8    46-35     1
TBR     44    39    5.4    4.5    48-35     -4
TOR     42    41    5    4.5    45-38     -3
BAL     36    46    4.7    5.5    35-47     0

Sorry about the formatting.

Here I’ve reproduced actual Wins and Losses, average Runs scored per game and average Runs Against per game, as well as the projected W-L record and something called “Luck”.

The projected W-L uses the R and RA values to determine what the team’s record should be. This was developed by (you guessed it) Bill James and is described here. Turns out that it is amazingly accurate in almost all cases. I’ve been using it the last several years and nearly 100% of the time at this point of the season, a team that is ahead or behind in its actual record as compared to the projected record catches up in the second half, in other words has its luck reversed. That Luck column shows the difference in actual wins from projected wins. So the Red Sox are right where they are supposed to be, the Yankees have 1 more win than expected, the Rays and Jays have fewer wins, and the Orioles are spot on. A number as large as 3 or 4 (positive or negative) is quite unusual and is very unlikely to be maintained.

So what does this mean? If you take away one victory from the Yankees and give 4 to the Rays, it is Tampa Bay and not New York that should be in second place. Either way you look at it, Boston deserves its 1-game lead.

Look at the AL Central, Detroit should have 1 fewer win while Minnesota should have 2 more. That would give the Twins a 2-game lead as opposed to the same lead held by the Tigers right now.

All of the teams in the AL West currently above .500 have had some luck and it should be Texas with a 1-game lead.

Over in the National League, here is the story:

The Phillies are the only NL East team outscoring their opponents and deserve to have a whopping 6-game lead right now. The Phillies are a pretty good team while nobody else is a serious playoff contender. This race is actually over already, in my opinion.

In the NL Central, the top 3 teams all have matching records with the projections. The Reds have luck to the tune of +4 and are absolutely done for the year. They deserve to be 11.5 games behind and have 3 teams ahead of them. They have no chance to win the division.

The NL West is the only division that doesn’t need this analysis to be crystal clear. The Dodgers are by far the best team.

So, by this method, here are my playoff predictions for 2009:

AL East: Red Sox
AL Central: Twins
AL West: Rangers
AL Wildcard: Rays
NL East: Phillies
NL Central: Cardinals
NL West: Dodgers
NL Wildcard: Giants

Tomorrow I’ll look at a different indicator and the predictions might be a little different too.

In my post yesterday I discussed 2 games that involved 14 run first innings.  In the comments of that post, reader ImAShark noted that aside from those 2 there have been very few times when a team scored 14+ runs in any inning.  I didn’t realize it at the time, but ImAShark is quite correct. In fact, unless I’m missing something, there have only been 2 other 14+ run innings since 1954. One is famous for being  so large and the other for happening this season. However, just to   round things out, I will post those games as well. (EDIT- For a more complete list, please see whiz’s comment here)

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It was announced today, that Red Sox veteran Tim Wakefield would be included among the players participating in the All Star Game on July 14. Wakefield, who has never pitched in an All Star Game, will be 18 days shy of his 43rd birthday for the grandiose exhibition game. This would make him the second oldest pitcher in All Star Game history.  Here are the oldest pitchers to date :

  Cnt AgeY.D                   Date          Tm  Lg GmReslt App,Dec    IP   H  R ER BB SO HR GmSc IR IS BF AB 2B 3B IBB HBP SH SF GDP SB CS Pk BK WP   ERA
+----+------+-----------------+-------------+---+--+-------+---------+----+--+--+--+--+--+--+----+--+--+--+--+--+--+---+---+--+--+---+--+--+--+--+--+------+
    1 47.007 Satchel Paige     1953-07-14    SLB AL L  1-5   8-8f      1    3  2  2  1  0  0       0  0  6  5  0  0   0   0  0  0   0  0  0  0  0  0  18.00
    2 42.342 Roger Clemens     2005-07-12    HOU NL L  5-7   5-5       1    0  0  0  0  0  0       0  0  3  3  0  0   0   0  0  0   0  0  0  0  0  0   0.00
    3 42.161 Nolan Ryan        1989-07-11    TEX AL W  5-3   2-3  ,W   2    1  0  0  0  3  0       0  0  7  7  0  0   0   0  0  0   0  1  0  0  0  0   0.00
    4 41.344 Roger Clemens     2004-07-13    HOU NL L  4-9  GS-1  ,L   1    5  6  3  0  2  2   27        9  9  1  1   0   0  0  0   0  0  0  0  0  0  27.00
    5 41.243 Kenny Rogers      2006-07-11    DET AL W  3-2  GS-2       2    3  1  1  0  1  1   47        8  8  1  0   0   0  0  0   1  0  0  0  0  0   4.50
    6 40.345 Roger Clemens     2003-07-15    NYY AL W  7-6   3-3       1    0  0  0  0  2  0       0  0  3  3  0  0   0   0  0  0   0  0  0  0  0  0   0.00
    7 40.307 Randy Johnson     2004-07-13    ARI NL L  4-9   3-3       1    3  0  0  0  1  0       0  0  6  6  0  0   0   0  0  0   0  0  0  0  0  0   0.00
    8 40.305 Gaylord Perry     1979-07-17    SDP NL W  7-6   6-6       0    3  1  1  0  0  0       0  0  3  3  1  0   0   0  0  0   0  0  0  0  0  0   inf
    9 40.244 Kenny Rogers      2005-07-12    TEX AL W  7-5   7-7       1    3  2  2  0  1  1       0  0  5  5  0  0   0   0  0  0   1  0  0  0  0  0  18.00
   10 40.239 Jamie Moyer       2003-07-15    SEA AL W  7-6   4-4  ,H   1    0  0  0  0  1  0       0  0  3  3  0  0   0   0  0  0   0  0  0  0  0  0   0.00
   11 40.189 Early Wynn        1960-07-13    CHW AL L  0-6   4-5       2    0  0  0  0  2  0       0  0  6  6  0  0   0   0  0  0   0  0  0  0  0  0   0.00
   12 40.079 Warren Spahn      1961-07-11    MLN NL W  5-4  GS-3       3    0  0  0  0  3  0   62        9  9  0  0   0   0  0  0   0  0  0  0  0  0   0.00
   13 40.058 Dennis Martinez   1995-07-11    CLE AL L  2-3   5-6  ,H   2    1  1  1  0  0  1       0  0  7  7  0  0   0   0  0  0   0  0  0  0  0  0   4.50
   14 40.056 Rick Reuschel     1989-07-11    SFG NL L  3-5  GS-1       1    3  2  2  0  0  2   39        6  6  0  0   0   0  0  0   0  0  0  0  0  0  18.00

Nobody mentioned it, but we recently passed the second birthday for this blog (I’m referring to the Stat of the Day blog, which has now been folded together with the main B-R.com blog.)

Would you believe we’ve made over 1800 posts on here? Not too shabby.

A quick run through the PI inning summary tool reveals that on 4 occasions since 1954 a team has scored 13 or more runs in the first inning.  Using the Batting Event Finder, it’s pretty easy to isolate them. Here’s a quick look at  each of those innings:

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A quick follow-on to my article earlier today about David Ortiz about what Albert Pujols has done in his last 162 games.

Here are the numbers that would be career highs for Pujols if they were for one full calendar season:

HR: 52
RBI: 153
BB: 113
OPS: 1.160

Yeah…nice.

Mlb.com is reporting that with his first inning single tonight, Omar Visquel passed Luis Aparicio as the alltime hits leader among players born in Venezuela. These were the leaders before tonight’s game:

  Cnt Player              **H**  From  To   Ages   G    PA    AB    R   2B  3B  HR  RBI  BB  IBB  SO  HBP  SH  SF GDP  SB   CS   BA   OBP   SLG   OPS  Positions Teams       Birthplace
+----+-----------------+--------+----+----+-----+----+-----+-----+----+---+---+---+----+----+---+----+---+---+---+---+----+---+-----+-----+-----+-----+---------+-----------+---------------+
    1 Omar Vizquel        2677   1989 2009 22-42 2707 11153  9811 1370 430  73  77  899  968  25  986  47 241  86 192  389 156  .273  .338  .355  .693 *6/549    SEA-CLE-SFG-TEX Caracas, Venezuela
    2 Luis Aparicio       2677   1956 1973 22-39 2601 11230 10230 1335 394  92  83  791  736  22  742  27 161  76 184  506 136  .262  .311  .343  .654 *6        BAL-CHW-BOS Maracaibo, Venezuela
    3 Andres Galarraga    2333   1985 2004 24-43 2257  8916  8096 1195 444  32 399 1425  583 106 2003 178   1  58 179  128  81  .288  .347  .499  .846 *3/D5     MON-STL-COL-ATL-TOT-MON-SFG-ANA Caracas, Venezuela
    4 Dave Concepcion     2326   1970 1988 22-40 2488  9640  8723  993 389  48 101  950  736  93 1186  21  74  86 266  321 109  .267  .322  .357  .679 *645/381  CIN         Ocumare de la Costa, Venezuela
    5 Bobby Abreu         2016   1996 2009 22-35 1863  8026  6725 1205 468  55 245 1124 1199 101 1448  29   6  67 124  334 105  .300  .404  .495  .899 *9/78D    HOU-PHI-TOT-NYY-LAA Maracay, Venezuela
    6 Magglio Ordonez     1891   1997 2009 23-35 1600  6751  6083  961 384  18 270 1117  563  34  742  44   3  58 210   90  48  .311  .370  .513  .883 *9/D8     CHW-DET     Caracas, Venezuela
    7 Ozzie Guillen       1764   1985 2000 21-36 1993  7133  6686  773 275  69  28  619  239  25  511   7 141  60 114  169 108  .264  .287  .338  .625 *6/5347   CHW-TOT-ATL-TBD Ocumare Del Tuy, Venezuela
    8 Manny Trillo        1562   1973 1989 22-38 1780  6573  5950  598 239  33  61  571  452  35  742  34  88  49 143   56  57  .263  .316  .345  .661 *45/36    OAK-CHC-PHI-TOT-SFG-CHC-CIN Caripito, Venezuela
    9 Cesar Tovar         1546   1965 1976 24-35 1488  6177  5569  834 253  55  46  435  413  23  410  88  73  34  58  226 108  .278  .335  .368  .703 87549/D6321 MIN-PHI-TEX-TOT Caracas, Venezuela
   10 Edgardo Alfonzo     1532   1995 2006 21-32 1506  6108  5385  777 282  18 146  744  596  22  617  41  31  55 110   53  17  .284  .357  .425  .782 *54/6D3   NYM-SFG-TOT Santa Teresa, Venezuela

Giants corner-man Pablo Sandoval is following up his impressive rookie season with another excellent year. Through yesterday’s games Sandoval was hitting .336  in 241 AB. In fact Sandoval can become just the second player since WWII (with 1 player doing it around the war) to hit at least .330 with at least 100 PA in each of his first 2 big league seasons. Here are all the players since 1901:

 Pablo Sandoval    2008 2009 21-22       2 Ind. Seasons
 Wade Boggs        1982 1983 24-25       2 Ind. Seasons
 Johnny Pesky      1942 1946 22-26       2 Ind. Seasons
 Earl Averill      1929 1930 27-28       2 Ind. Seasons
 Chuck Klein       1928 1929 23-24       2 Ind. Seasons
 Lloyd Waner       1927 1928 21-22       2 Ind. Seasons
 Paul Waner        1926 1927 23-24       2 Ind. Seasons
 Riggs Stephenson  1921 1922 23-24       2 Ind. Seasons
 Patsy Dougherty   1902 1903 25-26       2 Ind. Seasons

Of course, a lot of players only have a few PA in their first season. Here are the overall leaders in BA after 2 seasons (min. 300 PA)

  Cnt Player              **BA**    PA  From  To   Ages   G    AB    R    H   2B  3B  HR  RBI  BB  IBB  SO  HBP  SH  SF GDP  SB   CS  OBP   SLG   OPS  Positions Teams
 ----+-----------------+---------+-----+----+----+-----+----+-----+----+----+---+---+---+----+----+---+----+---+---+---+---+----+---+-----+-----+-----+---------+-----------
    1 Benny Kauff          .368     681 1912 1914 22-24  159   582  124  214  44  13   8   97   75   0   55   8  16   0   0   76   0  .447  .529  .976 /987      NYY-IND
    2 Jim Bottomley        .361     748 1922 1923 22-23  171   674  108  243  42  19  13  129   51   0   57   6  17   0   0    7   7  .410  .537  .947 *3        STL
    3 Paul Waner           .360    1327 1926 1927 23-24  299  1159  215  417  77  40  17  210  126   0   33   7  35   0   0   16   0  .426  .539  .965 *9/37     PIT
    4 Wade Boggs           .357    1066 1982 1983 24-25  257   920  151  328  58   8  10  118  127   6   57   1   7  11  24    4   3  .431  .470  .901 *5/37     BOS
    5 Chuck Klein          .357     954 1928 1929 23-24  213   869  167  310  59  10  54  179   68   0   83   1  16   0   0    5   0  .404  .634 1.038 *9/8      PHI
    6 Johnny Mize          .349    1090 1936 1937 23-24  271   974  179  340  70  15  44  206  106   0   89   6   4   0   9    3   0  .416  .587 1.003 *3/9      STL
    7 Al Simmons           .349    1340 1924 1925 22-23  305  1248  191  436  74  21  32  231   65   0  101   3  24   0   0   23  29  .383  .519  .902 *8/7      PHA
    8 Earle Combs          .346     712 1924 1925 25-26  174   628  127  217  41  13   3   63   69   0   45   4  11   0   0   12  14  .414  .467  .881 *8/79     NYY
    9 Lloyd Waner          .345    1403 1927 1928 21-22  302  1288  254  444  39  20   7   88   77   0   36  10  28   0   0   22   0  .386  .422  .808 *8/74     PIT
   10 Dick Porter          .344     766 1929 1930 27-28  190   672  126  231  59  13   5   81   72   0   45   4  18   0   0    6   8  .410  .493  .903 *9/47     CLE
   11 Pablo Sandoval       .339     416 2008 2009 21-22  106   386   53  131  32   3  11   58   21   5   51   4   0   5  10    2   2  .375  .523  .898 /*532D    SFG
   12 Maurice Archdeaco    .339     437 1923 1924 25-26  117   375   82  127  14   4   0   29   46   0   38   4  12   0   0   13  10  .416  .397  .813 /*89      CHW
   13 Fred Lynn            .338     656 1974 1975 22-23  160   571  108  193  49   9  23  115   68  12   96   4   6   7  11   10   5  .408  .576  .984 *8/79     BOS
   14 Al Bumbry            .338     406 1972 1973 25-26  119   367   78  124  15  12   7   34   34   0   49   3   1   1   5   24  11  .398  .501  .899 /*79D8    BAL
   15 Wally Moses          .338    1028 1935 1936 24-25  231   930  158  314  56  14  12  101   87   0   50   5   6   0   0   15  10  .397  .467  .864 *8/9      PHA
   16 Ichiro Suzuki        .336    1466 2001 2002 27-28  314  1339  238  450  61  16  16  120   98  37  115  13   7   9  11   87  29  .385  .441  .826 *9/D8     SEA

Everything can change with a dip of a few percentage points, but as he stands today Sandoval (#11)  is still second only to Boggs since 1940.

I’m not trying to evaluate Sandoval here . Aside from the obvious problem of just using batting average as a measure, there are certainly players who have done better in more chances in their first season alone. However, I did notice Sandoval’s numbers in Andy’s post today and was struck by his double .330.

These are posted on my personal blog…all extracted from the Play Index

• Who are the 3 pitchers since 1981 with 7 career shutouts and 70 career saves?
• Who has the worst OBP in a season with at least 25 caught-stealings?
• Who had the most saves from 1992 to 2000?
• Which 3 players appeared in every season from 1989 to 2009?
• Who has the worst OPS+ among players with 5000 at-bats since 1989?

Every card entry on the blog has a PI stat to go with it.