Everyone loves projected standings at this time of the year, since it gives us another baseball-related topic to argue about before the games start to count for real in a few weeks. With that in mind, I thought I'd throw another batch of projections out there to join the great work by Sean Smith, Baseball Prospectus, and others. The projection system of choice? Marcel the Monkey, of course, since it's completely open-source, surprisingly accurate given its simplicity, and at the very least should provide a decent sanity check against other, more sophisticated methods.
The other component of any team-projection method is allocating playing time, and for that I used a great site that's only been around for a year or so, called MLB Depth Charts. They offer downloadable depth charts in spreadsheet form, updated every day, so you should definitely check them out (the set I used was from last Thursday, 3/11/2010). I allocated playing time based on how teams over the past 3 years had used their players: AL teams gave 90% of their outs to their 9 starting batters and top 4 bench players, NL teams gave 84% of their outs to their top 8 hitters and top 5 bench players, teams in both leagues gave 31% of their pitching outs to their top 7 relievers, etc. This method isn't perfect, but it's also fairly accurate without me having to introduce any biases into the process, which was important if this was going to be done in the spirit of the Marcels (motto: the "dumbest" possible projections).
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