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Bloops: CAIRO Early Projected 2011 Standings

Posted by Neil Paine on February 11, 2011

In an annual tradition for the Replacement-Level Yankees Weblog, they plugged their CAIRO projections into depth charts from the terrific MLBDepthCharts.com, and came up with some early expectations for the upcoming season:

Replacement Level Yankees Weblog - CAIRO v0.6 and Still Too Early 2011 MLB Projected Standings

8 Comments | Posted in Bloops, Sabermetrics, Season Preview

More on Jim Edmonds

Posted by Andy on April 23, 2010

Jim Edmonds is off to a fast start with the Brewers after sitting out all of 2009. Not that long ago we had a good debate about his HOF candidacy. With more than 500 votes, the poll that went with that HOF post has him at 56-to-42 against his deserving the HOF.

Anyway, in looking more at Edmonds numbers I have concluded that he has had a really weird career. I'm going to post a long list here, of all players since 1901 to play in 1900 to 2000 games. Bear with me for putting a long table here, but pick up my commentary at the bottom.

Rk Player H G From To PA AB R 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS Pos Tm
1 Al Lopez 1547 1950 1928 1947 6607 5916 613 206 43 51 652 556 538 .261 .326 .337 .663 *2/453 BRO-BSN-TOT-PIT-CLE
2 Alfredo Griffin 1688 1962 1976 1993 7330 6780 759 245 78 24 527 338 664 .249 .285 .319 .604 *6/45 CLE-TOR-OAK-LAD
3 Amos Otis 2020 1998 1967 1984 8246 7299 1092 374 66 193 1007 757 1008 .277 .343 .425 .768 *8/79D5 NYM-KCR-PIT
4 Andruw Jones 1786 1930 1996 2010 7889 6935 1115 357 35 392 1181 795 1555 .258 .338 .489 .827 *89/D73 ATL-LAD-TEX-CHW
5 Benito Santiago 1830 1978 1986 2005 7515 6951 755 323 41 217 920 430 1270 .263 .307 .415 .722 *2/37D SDP-FLA-CIN-PHI-TOR-CHC-SFG-KCR-PIT
6 Billy Herman 2345 1922 1931 1947 8641 7707 1163 486 82 47 839 737 428 .304 .367 .407 .774 *4/53 CHC-TOT-BRO-PIT
7 Bob Bailey 1564 1931 1962 1978 7043 6082 772 234 43 189 773 852 1126 .257 .347 .403 .750 *573/D689 PIT-LAD-MON-CIN-TOT-BOS
8 Bob Elliott 2061 1978 1939 1953 8190 7141 1064 382 94 170 1195 967 604 .289 .375 .440 .815 *59/8764 PIT-BSN-NYG-TOT
9 Bobby Abreu 2128 1967 1996 2010 8488 7120 1277 488 56 258 1196 1258 1530 .299 .403 .492 .895 *9/D78 HOU-PHI-TOT-NYY-LAA
10 Bobby Murcer 1862 1908 1965 1983 7718 6730 972 285 45 252 1043 862 841 .277 .357 .445 .802 98/D7564 NYY-SFG-CHC-TOT
11 Brad Ausmus 1566 1951 1993 2010 7034 6220 714 269 34 80 605 627 1019 .252 .325 .345 .670 *2/3456 SDP-TOT-HOU-DET-LAD
12 Buddy Myer 2131 1923 1925 1941 8187 7038 1174 353 130 38 850 965 428 .303 .389 .406 .795 *465/79 WSH-TOT-BOS
13 Chet Lemon 1875 1988 1975 1990 7872 6868 973 396 61 215 884 749 1024 .273 .355 .442 .797 *89/D547 CHW-DET
14 Claudell Washington 1884 1912 1974 1990 7367 6787 926 334 69 164 824 468 1266 .278 .325 .420 .745 *978/D OAK-TEX-TOT-CHW-ATL-NYY-CAL
15 Clyde Milan 2100 1982 1907 1922 8312 7359 1004 240 105 17 617 685 197 .285 .353 .353 .706 *87/9 WSH
16 Dave Bancroft 2004 1913 1915 1930 8244 7182 1048 320 77 32 591 827 487 .279 .355 .358 .714 *6/457 PHI-TOT-NYG-BSN-BRO
17 Dave Kingman 1575 1941 1971 1986 7429 6677 901 240 25 442 1210 608 1816 .236 .302 .478 .780 37D59/1 SFG-NYM-TOT-CHC-OAK
18 Dave Martinez 1599 1919 1986 2001 6480 5795 795 238 72 91 580 567 893 .276 .341 .389 .730 8937/1D CHC-TOT-MON-CIN-SFG-CHW-TBD-ATL
19 Dave Philley 1700 1904 1941 1962 7000 6296 789 276 72 84 729 594 551 .270 .334 .377 .710 9873/5 CHW-TOT-PHA-CLE-PHI-BAL-BOS
20 Del Ennis 2063 1903 1946 1959 7940 7254 985 358 69 288 1284 597 719 .284 .340 .472 .812 *79/83 PHI-STL-TOT
21 Devon White 1934 1941 1985 2001 8080 7344 1125 378 71 208 846 541 1526 .263 .319 .419 .739 *89/7D CAL-TOR-FLA-ARI-LAD-MIL
22 Dick Groat 2138 1929 1952 1967 8179 7484 829 352 67 39 707 490 512 .286 .330 .366 .696 *6/543 PIT-STL-PHI-TOT
23 Dixie Walker 2064 1905 1931 1949 7666 6740 1037 376 96 105 1023 817 325 .306 .383 .437 .820 *987/3 NYY-TOT-CHW-DET-BRO-PIT
24 Donie Bush 1804 1945 1908 1923 8734 7210 1280 186 74 9 436 1158 346 .250 .356 .300 .656 *6/54 DET-TOT-WSH
25 Edd Roush 2376 1967 1913 1931 8156 7363 1099 339 182 68 981 484 260 .323 .369 .446 .815 *8/7394 CHW-IND-NEW-TOT-CIN-NYG
26 Edgar Renteria 2201 1997 1996 2010 8527 7654 1146 414 27 133 871 678 1085 .288 .345 .401 .746 *6/D3 FLA-STL-BOS-ATL-DET-SFG
27 Ellis Burks 2107 2000 1987 2004 8176 7232 1253 402 63 352 1206 793 1340 .291 .363 .510 .874 *89D7 BOS-CHW-COL-TOT-SFG-CLE
28 Fred Lynn 1960 1969 1974 1990 7923 6925 1063 388 43 306 1111 857 1116 .283 .360 .484 .845 *897/D BOS-CAL-BAL-TOT-DET-SDP
29 Gabby Hartnett 1912 1990 1922 1941 7297 6432 867 396 64 236 1179 703 697 .297 .370 .489 .858 *2/3 CHC-NYG
30 George Foster 1925 1977 1969 1986 7812 7023 986 307 47 348 1239 666 1419 .274 .338 .480 .818 *789/D3 SFG-TOT-CIN-NYM
31 Hal Chase 2158 1919 1905 1919 7939 7417 980 322 124 57 941 276 306 .291 .319 .391 .710 *3/4876195 NYY-TOT-BUF-CIN-NYG
32 Jack Clark 1826 1994 1975 1992 8225 6847 1118 332 39 340 1180 1262 1441 .267 .379 .476 .854 *93D/875 SFG-STL-NYY-SDP-BOS
33 Jason Giambi 1872 1959 1995 2010 8155 6638 1159 376 9 409 1331 1268 1395 .282 .405 .526 .931 *3D7/59 OAK-NYY-TOT-COL
34 Jason Kendall 2103 1981 1996 2010 8269 7247 993 379 35 75 709 687 646 .290 .369 .383 .752 *2/79D PIT-OAK-TOT-MIL-KCR
35 Jim Bottomley 2313 1991 1922 1937 8355 7471 1177 465 151 219 1422 664 591 .310 .369 .500 .869 *3/4 STL-CIN-SLB
36 Jim Edmonds 1896 1937 1993 2010 7759 6656 1218 421 25 383 1181 980 1679 .285 .377 .528 .906 *8/739D CAL-ANA-STL-TOT-MIL
37 Jim Fregosi 1726 1902 1961 1978 7402 6523 844 264 78 151 706 715 1097 .265 .338 .398 .736 *635/D74 LAA-CAL-NYM-TOT-TEX-PIT
38 Jim Gilliam 1889 1956 1953 1966 8321 7119 1163 304 71 65 558 1036 416 .265 .360 .355 .715 *457/983 BRO-LAD
39 Jim Sundberg 1493 1962 1974 1989 6898 6021 621 243 36 95 624 699 963 .248 .327 .348 .674 *2/7D TEX-MIL-KCR-CHC-TOT
40 Jim Wynn 1665 1920 1963 1977 8010 6653 1105 285 39 291 964 1224 1427 .250 .366 .436 .802 *897/D65 HOU-LAD-ATL-TOT
41 Joe Adcock 1832 1959 1950 1966 7304 6606 823 295 35 336 1122 594 1059 .277 .337 .485 .822 *37 CIN-MLN-CLE-LAA-CAL
42 Joe Medwick 2471 1984 1932 1948 8142 7635 1198 540 113 205 1383 437 551 .324 .362 .505 .867 *7/983 STL-TOT-BRO-NYG
43 Joe Sewell 2226 1903 1920 1933 8329 7132 1141 436 68 49 1055 842 114 .312 .391 .413 .804 *65/4 CLE-NYY
44 Lance Parrish 1782 1988 1977 1995 7797 7067 856 305 27 324 1070 612 1527 .252 .313 .440 .753 *2D/397 DET-PHI-CAL-TOT-CLE-PIT-TOR
45 Larry Gardner 1931 1923 1908 1924 7685 6688 867 301 129 27 934 654 282 .289 .355 .384 .739 *54/6 BOS-PHA-CLE
46 Larry Walker 2160 1988 1989 2005 8030 6907 1355 471 62 383 1311 913 1231 .313 .400 .565 .965 *9/387D45 MON-COL-TOT-STL
47 Lenny Harris 1055 1903 1988 2005 4289 3924 460 161 21 37 369 279 337 .269 .318 .349 .667 5497/36D81 CIN-TOT-LAD-NYM-MIL-FLA
48 Leo Cardenas 1725 1941 1960 1975 7402 6707 662 285 49 118 689 522 1135 .257 .311 .367 .679 *6/54D CIN-MIN-CAL-CLE-TEX
49 Lloyd Waner 2459 1993 1927 1945 8326 7772 1201 281 118 27 598 420 173 .316 .353 .393 .747 *87/945 PIT-TOT-PHI
50 Maury Wills 2134 1942 1959 1972 8304 7588 1067 177 71 20 458 552 684 .281 .330 .331 .661 *65/4 LAD-PIT-TOT
51 Mike Piazza 2127 1912 1992 2007 7745 6911 1048 344 8 427 1335 759 1113 .308 .377 .545 .922 *2D/3 LAD-TOT-NYM-SDP-OAK
52 Moises Alou 2134 1942 1990 2008 7913 7037 1109 421 39 332 1287 737 894 .303 .369 .516 .885 *798/D TOT-MON-FLA-HOU-CHC-SFG-NYM
53 Nap Lajoie 2521 1988 1901 1916 8256 7498 1083 510 101 50 1141 457 74 .336 .382 .451 .833 *43/657 PHA-TOT-CLE
54 Ozzie Guillen 1764 1993 1985 2000 7133 6686 773 275 69 28 619 239 511 .264 .287 .338 .626 *6/5347 CHW-TOT-ATL-TBD
55 Paul Blair 1513 1947 1964 1980 6673 6042 776 282 55 134 620 449 877 .250 .302 .382 .684 *8/97456 BAL-NYY-TOT
56 Pie Traynor 2416 1941 1920 1937 8293 7559 1183 371 164 58 1273 472 278 .320 .362 .435 .797 *5/63 PIT
57 Ray Durham 2054 1975 1995 2008 8423 7408 1249 440 79 192 875 820 1201 .277 .352 .436 .788 *4/D8 CHW-TOT-SFG
58 Reggie Smith 2020 1987 1966 1982 8050 7033 1123 363 57 314 1092 890 1030 .287 .366 .489 .855 983/5D47 BOS-STL-TOT-LAD-SFG
59 Richie Hebner 1694 1908 1968 1985 7016 6144 865 273 57 203 890 687 741 .276 .352 .438 .790 *53/D974 PIT-PHI-NYM-DET-TOT-CHC
60 Rick Monday 1619 1986 1966 1984 7162 6136 950 248 64 241 775 924 1513 .264 .361 .443 .804 *89/73 KCA-OAK-CHC-LAD
61 Shawn Green 2003 1951 1993 2007 7962 7082 1129 445 35 328 1070 744 1315 .283 .355 .494 .850 *93/87D TOR-LAD-ARI-TOT-NYM
62 Stan Hack 2193 1938 1932 1947 8506 7278 1239 363 81 57 642 1092 466 .301 .394 .397 .791 *5/3 CHC
63 Tim McCarver 1501 1909 1959 1980 6206 5529 590 242 57 97 645 548 422 .271 .337 .388 .725 *23/75D STL-PHI-TOT
64 Tommy Davis 2121 1999 1959 1976 7739 7223 811 272 35 153 1052 381 754 .294 .329 .405 .733 *7D58/394 LAD-NYM-CHW-TOT-OAK-BAL
65 Tommy Leach 1991 1996 1901 1918 8401 7383 1260 255 164 57 737 762 278 .270 .341 .372 .712 85/7694 PIT-TOT-CHC-CIN
66 Tony Pena 1687 1988 1980 1997 7073 6489 667 298 27 107 708 455 846 .260 .309 .364 .673 *2/395 PIT-STL-BOS-CLE-TOT
67 Will Clark 2176 1976 1986 2000 8283 7173 1186 440 47 284 1205 937 1190 .303 .384 .497 .880 *3/D SFG-TEX-BAL-TOT
Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 4/23/2010.

I've set the default sorting to name, but remember that you can click any column heading to re-sort the list.

So we have here 67 players who played in between 1900-2000 games, excluding further games that active players will appear in. Plus, two players (Lajoie and Leach) played some before 1901 and those years are not included here.

You can play along at home at re-sort the table above in the following ways:

  • Sorting by hits, Edmonds is in the bottom half of the pack at #38 out of 67. His hit total is similar to those of Claudell Washington, Chet Lemon, and Benito Santiago. Those guys were not bad players, but it's certainly not HOF company. Incidentally, the guy with the fewest hits in this group is Lenny Harris, who of course appeared in many games as a pinch-hitter. He had a similar number of games and similar BA to Jack Clark but almost 800 fewer hits than Clark due to a much smaller number of plate appearances. Many of the other players towards the bottom of the list were catchers, whose game totals may have been boosted by coming in as a late-inning defensive replacement without getting a full game's worth of PAs. Paul Blair fits that bill as well.
  • Sorting by OPS, Edmonds is 4th overall, behind only Walker, Giambi, and Piazza. This isn't too meaningful, though, as its partially a product of the era in which Edmonds played. After all, the top 8 guys all played as recently as 2000. This sort of search doesn't calculate OPS+ which is too bad because I suspect Edmonds would be further down the list.
  • Sorting by strikeouts, Edmonds and Dave Kingman are way out in the lead. Interesting, in fact, that in a similar number of games and PAs, Edmonds and Kingman have similar RBI totals, despite Edmonds playing in a higher-offense era.
  • Looking at triples, do you believe that in a similar number of games, Edmonds has fewer triples than Lance Parrish, Tony Pena, Brad Ausmus, and Jim Sundberg? Wow.

9 Comments | Posted in Season Preview

An Oldie but a Goodie

Posted by Andy on April 1, 2010

Jamie Moyer has been named the Phillies fifth starter and that gives him a very good shot at being the oldest player to start a game in a long time.

Here are the oldest players (age as of June 30th of that year) to start at least one game in a season since 1901:

Rk GS Year Age Tm
1 Satchel Paige 1 1965 58 KCA
2 Phil Niekro 26 1987 48 TOT
3 Jack Quinn 1 1931 47 BRO
4 Phil Niekro 32 1986 47 CLE
5 Jack Quinn 6 1930 46 PHA
6 Hod Lisenbee 3 1945 46 CIN
7 Satchel Paige 4 1953 46 SLB
8 Phil Niekro 33 1985 46 NYY
9 Tommy John 10 1989 46 NYY
10 Nolan Ryan 13 1993 46 TEX
11 Charlie Hough 21 1994 46 FLA
12 Jamie Moyer 25 2009 46 PHI
Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 3/31/2010.

I took the list as far as Moyer himself last year. Assuming that Moyer does actually start a game this year (which now seems very likely barring an injury) he'll jump to the third oldest guy to start a game. Since he probably won't start in the first couple of weeks, he'll likely be about 47 years and 140 days old when he does start.

Check out the oldest pitchers in individual games (as with all box score searches these days, this is 1920-1939 and 1952-present). The full list is here. Moyer should slot in around #42 or so depending on exactly when he starts. If he sticks in the rotation for the whole season, he could place as high as 28th, as he'll be a bit older than Jack Quinn was in his 1931 start.

I got curious about possible matchups Moyer could have this season against other older starting pitchers. His best shots, Randy Johnson and John Smoltz, are not likely to pitch this year. (Johnson definitely not and Smoltz probably not.) There's a remote possibility Moyer could faceoff with 43-year-old Tim Wakefield. Other outside shots include Paul Byrd and Pedro Martinez. Too bad he's teammates with 38-year-old Jose Contreras.

14 Comments | Posted in Game Finders, Season Preview

2010 Marcel Projected Standings: American League West & MLB Playoffs

Posted by Neil Paine on March 19, 2010

NOTE: This is my attempt to predict the standings for the 2010 MLB season using Tom Tango's Marcel projection system. For NL East projections and more background info on how these projections work, go here. Other division projections: NL Central, NL West, AL East, AL Central.

Rk Team Div W L Plyff wLDS wLCS wWS
1 TEX AL-W 82.3 79.7 38.0% 15.5% 6.6% 3.2%
2 ANA AL-W 80.7 81.3 26.9% 10.6% 4.4% 1.9%
3 SEA AL-W 80.3 81.7 24.0% 9.0% 3.7% 1.7%
4 OAK AL-W 78.9 83.1 16.7% 6.1% 2.3% 0.8%

1. Texas Rangers

Lineup BA OBP SLG wOBA
1 CF Julio Borbon 0.293 0.361 0.438 0.351
2 3B Michael Young 0.293 0.349 0.440 0.346
3 2B Ian Kinsler 0.276 0.349 0.476 0.361
4 LF Josh Hamilton 0.284 0.349 0.486 0.355
5 DH Vladimir Guerrero 0.291 0.353 0.484 0.346
6 RF Nelson Cruz 0.261 0.332 0.483 0.346
7 1B Chris Davis 0.267 0.320 0.486 0.341
8 C Jarrod Saltalamacchia 0.260 0.330 0.405 0.318
9 SS Elvis Andrus 0.280 0.346 0.410 0.336
Bench
C Taylor Teagarden 0.252 0.315 0.440 0.322
1B/3B Matt Brown 0.251 0.328 0.402 0.321
IF Joaquin Arias 0.268 0.332 0.407 0.323
OF David Murphy 0.273 0.335 0.458 0.337
Starting Rotation ERA K/9 BB/9 HR/9
1 RHP Scott Feldman 4.50 5.5 3.3 1.1
2 RHP Rich Harden 3.41 10.0 4.0 1.1
3 RHP Colby Lewis 4.85 6.9 3.5 1.4
4 RHP Tommy Hunter 4.54 6.2 2.8 1.2
5 RHP Brandon McCarthy 4.50 6.2 3.4 1.1
Bullpen
CL RHP Frank Francisco 4.02 8.8 3.5 1.1
SU LHP C.J. Wilson 3.95 8.5 4.0 0.8
SU RHP Neftali Feliz 3.51 8.3 2.9 0.9
MID LHP Darren Oliver 3.65 6.9 3.0 0.9
MID RHP Darren O'Day 3.51 7.3 3.1 0.8
MID RHP Chris Ray 5.17 7.5 3.8 1.3
LR RHP Dustin Nippert 4.73 7.0 3.8 1.0
Win Scan Prob
<=65 0.4%
66-70 2.4%
71-75 10.7%
76-80 25.2%
81-85 30.6%
86-90 21.0%
91-95 7.9%
96-100 1.6%
101-105 0.2%
>=106 0.0%

What a typical Texas World Championship season looks like:

Team Div W L Team Div W L Team Div W L
MIN AL-C 85 77 NYA AL-E 94 68 TEX AL-W 88 74
DET AL-C 81 81 BOS AL-E 91 71 ANA AL-W 79 83
CHA AL-C 79 83 TBA AL-E 87 75 SEA AL-W 79 83
CLE AL-C 77 85 BAL AL-E 76 86 OAK AL-W 78 84
KCA AL-C 71 91 TOR AL-E 73 89
Team Div W L Team Div W L Team Div W L
SLN NL-C 90 72 ATL NL-E 88 74 LAN NL-W 86 76
CHN NL-C 87 75 PHI NL-E 87 75 COL NL-W 83 79
MIL NL-C 83 79 NYN NL-E 81 81 ARI NL-W 82 80
CIN NL-C 75 87 FLO NL-E 80 82 SFN NL-W 82 80
HOU NL-C 73 89 WAS NL-E 73 89 SDN NL-W 76 86
PIT NL-C 70 92

2. Los Angeles Angels de Anaheim

Lineup BA OBP SLG wOBA
1 SS Erick Aybar 0.291 0.338 0.407 0.321
2 RF Bobby Abreu 0.279 0.365 0.434 0.352
3 1B Kendry Morales 0.294 0.350 0.527 0.360
4 CF Torii Hunter 0.277 0.340 0.473 0.347
5 DH Hideki Matsui 0.270 0.353 0.464 0.352
6 LF Juan Rivera 0.270 0.318 0.454 0.329
7 2B Howie Kendrick 0.298 0.339 0.443 0.338
8 C Mike Napoli 0.266 0.353 0.493 0.358
9 3B Brandon Wood 0.239 0.295 0.385 0.296
Bench
C Jeff Mathis 0.224 0.299 0.357 0.281
IF Maicer Izturis 0.281 0.344 0.408 0.329
IF/OF Robb Quinlan 0.253 0.314 0.360 0.296
OF Reggie Willits 0.259 0.346 0.341 0.307
Starting Rotation ERA K/9 BB/9 HR/9
1 RHP Jered Weaver 4.03 7.4 2.9 1.1
2 LHP Joe Saunders 4.21 5.4 3.0 1.2
3 LHP Scott Kazmir 4.17 8.6 3.7 1.1
4 RHP Ervin Santana 4.41 7.8 2.7 1.3
5 RHP Joel Pineiro 4.04 5.1 1.9 0.8
Bullpen
CL LHP Brian Fuentes 3.97 7.9 3.5 0.9
SU RHP Fernando Rodney 4.57 7.7 4.4 1.1
SU RHP Kevin Jepsen 4.58 7.5 3.2 0.8
MID RHP Jason Bulger 4.27 8.1 3.8 1.1
MID RHP Scot Shields 4.28 7.7 4.3 0.9
MID RHP Brian Stokes 4.36 6.3 3.9 1.0
LR RHP Matt Palmer 4.36 5.7 4.0 1.0
Win Scan Prob
<=65 0.6%
66-70 4.4%
71-75 15.6%
76-80 27.9%
81-85 29.1%
86-90 16.2%
91-95 5.2%
96-100 1.0%
101-105 0.0%
>=106 0.0%

What a typical Angels World Championship season looks like:

Team Div W L Team Div W L Team Div W L
MIN AL-C 85 77 NYA AL-E 94 68 ANA AL-W 87 75
DET AL-C 81 81 BOS AL-E 91 71 TEX AL-W 79 83
CHA AL-C 80 82 TBA AL-E 86 76 SEA AL-W 78 84
CLE AL-C 77 85 BAL AL-E 76 86 OAK AL-W 78 84
KCA AL-C 70 92 TOR AL-E 73 89
Team Div W L Team Div W L Team Div W L
SLN NL-C 90 72 ATL NL-E 88 74 LAN NL-W 85 77
CHN NL-C 87 75 PHI NL-E 88 74 COL NL-W 82 80
MIL NL-C 82 80 FLO NL-E 80 82 ARI NL-W 82 80
CIN NL-C 75 87 NYN NL-E 80 82 SFN NL-W 82 80
HOU NL-C 74 88 WAS NL-E 74 88 SDN NL-W 76 86
PIT NL-C 69 93

3. Seattle Mariners

Lineup BA OBP SLG wOBA
1 RF Ichiro Suzuki 0.319 0.365 0.418 0.340
2 3B Chone Figgins 0.290 0.376 0.382 0.343
3 LF Milton Bradley 0.281 0.389 0.465 0.366
4 CF Franklin Gutierrez 0.271 0.331 0.425 0.326
5 DH Ken Griffey, Jr 0.238 0.337 0.423 0.324
6 2B Jose Lopez 0.277 0.312 0.436 0.316
7 1B Casey Kotchman 0.277 0.345 0.421 0.331
8 SS Jack Wilson 0.266 0.315 0.387 0.299
9 C Adam Moore 0.270 0.341 0.429 0.336
Bench
C Rob Johnson 0.235 0.307 0.368 0.294
1B Ryan Garko 0.272 0.345 0.428 0.338
IF Jack Hannahan 0.233 0.316 0.364 0.300
OF Eric Byrnes 0.248 0.311 0.415 0.319
OF Ryan Langerhans 0.226 0.324 0.380 0.306
Starting Rotation ERA K/9 BB/9 HR/9
1 RHP Felix Hernandez 3.17 8.2 2.9 0.8
2 LHP Cliff Lee 3.34 7.1 2.1 0.7
3 RHP Ian Snell 4.83 6.6 4.3 1.0
4 LHP Ryan Rowland-Smith 3.87 6.1 3.2 1.0
5 LHP Erik Bedard 3.60 8.8 3.5 1.1
Bullpen
CL RHP David Aardsma 4.09 8.6 4.2 0.8
SU RHP Mark Lowe 4.18 7.6 3.7 1.0
SU RHP Brandon League 4.23 7.8 3.1 1.0
MID RHP Shawn Kelley 4.31 7.3 2.8 1.3
MID LHP Jason Vargas 4.74 6.1 2.8 1.4
LR LHP Garrett Olson 5.58 6.1 4.0 1.4
Win Scan Prob
<=65 0.9%
66-70 5.1%
71-75 16.1%
76-80 29.0%
81-85 28.3%
86-90 15.3%
91-95 4.6%
96-100 0.7%
101-105 0.0%
>=106 0.0%

What a typical Seattle World Championship season looks like:

Team Div W L Team Div W L Team Div W L
MIN AL-C 84 78 NYA AL-E 94 68 SEA AL-W 88 74
DET AL-C 81 81 BOS AL-E 90 72 ANA AL-W 80 82
CHA AL-C 79 83 TBA AL-E 85 77 TEX AL-W 79 83
CLE AL-C 76 86 BAL AL-E 76 86 OAK AL-W 78 84
KCA AL-C 71 91 TOR AL-E 73 89
Team Div W L Team Div W L Team Div W L
SLN NL-C 90 72 ATL NL-E 89 73 LAN NL-W 86 76
CHN NL-C 86 76 PHI NL-E 87 75 COL NL-W 83 79
MIL NL-C 82 80 NYN NL-E 81 81 ARI NL-W 83 79
CIN NL-C 75 87 FLO NL-E 80 82 SFN NL-W 81 81
HOU NL-C 74 88 WAS NL-E 73 89 SDN NL-W 76 86
PIT NL-C 70 92

4. Oakland Athletics

Lineup BA OBP SLG wOBA
1 LF Rajai Davis 0.277 0.335 0.403 0.332
2 CF Coco Crisp 0.262 0.335 0.397 0.323
3 RF Ryan Sweeney 0.289 0.350 0.411 0.333
4 DH Jack Cust 0.242 0.367 0.452 0.357
3 C Kurt Suzuki 0.273 0.332 0.404 0.323
6 3B Kevin Kouzmanoff 0.260 0.310 0.429 0.317
7 1B Daric Barton 0.259 0.354 0.418 0.333
8 2B Mark Ellis 0.254 0.318 0.405 0.316
9 SS Cliff Pennington 0.273 0.346 0.412 0.331
Bench
C Landon Powell 0.253 0.321 0.434 0.326
IF Adam Rosales 0.241 0.320 0.366 0.304
IF/OF Jake Fox 0.263 0.326 0.453 0.331
OF Gabe Gross 0.240 0.333 0.400 0.323
Starting Rotation ERA K/9 BB/9 HR/9
1 RHP Ben Sheets 3.49 7.1 2.7 0.9
2 LHP Brett Anderson 4.01 7.7 2.6 1.0
3 RHP Justin Duchscherer 3.66 6.5 2.8 1.0
4 LHP Dallas Braden 4.26 6.0 3.0 0.8
5 RHP Trevor Cahill 4.41 5.6 3.4 1.2
Bullpen
CL RHP Andrew Bailey 3.09 8.5 3.0 0.8
SU RHP Brad Ziegler 3.31 6.2 3.4 0.7
SU RHP Michael Wuertz 3.65 8.6 3.3 0.9
MID LHP Craig Breslow 3.60 7.1 3.6 1.0
MID RHP Joey Devine 3.30 7.8 3.3 0.9
MID LHP Jerry Blevins 4.28 7.7 3.2 0.9
LR LHP Brad Kilby 3.65 7.5 3.2 1.0
Win Scan Prob
<=65 1.7%
66-70 7.5%
71-75 20.4%
76-80 30.4%
81-85 25.0%
86-90 12.1%
91-95 2.7%
96-100 0.3%
101-105 0.0%
>=106 0.0%

What a typical Oakland World Championship season looks like:

Team Div W L Team Div W L Team Div W L
MIN AL-C 85 77 NYA AL-E 94 68 OAK AL-W 88 74
DET AL-C 80 82 BOS AL-E 89 73 TEX AL-W 80 82
CHA AL-C 79 83 TBA AL-E 86 76 ANA AL-W 79 83
CLE AL-C 76 86 BAL AL-E 76 86 SEA AL-W 79 83
KCA AL-C 71 91 TOR AL-E 74 88
Team Div W L Team Div W L Team Div W L
SLN NL-C 89 73 ATL NL-E 88 74 LAN NL-W 85 77
CHN NL-C 88 74 PHI NL-E 88 74 SFN NL-W 82 80
MIL NL-C 82 80 FLO NL-E 82 80 COL NL-W 81 81
CIN NL-C 75 87 NYN NL-E 80 82 ARI NL-W 81 81
HOU NL-C 74 88 WAS NL-E 73 89 SDN NL-W 75 87
PIT NL-C 70 92

2010 Playoff Projections
Standings:

Rk Team Div W L Rk Team Div W L Rk Team Div W L
1 MIN-x AL-C 85 77 1 NYA-x AL-E 94 68 1 TEX-x AL-W 82 80
2 DET AL-C 81 81 2 BOS-y AL-E 91 71 2 ANA AL-W 81 81
3 CHA AL-C 80 82 3 TBA AL-E 87 75 3 SEA AL-W 80 82
4 CLE AL-C 76 86 4 BAL AL-E 76 86 4 OAK AL-W 79 83
5 KCA AL-C 70 92 5 TOR AL-E 73 89
Rk Team Div W L Rk Team Div W L Rk Team Div W L
1 SLN-x NL-C 90 72 1 ATL-x NL-E 88 74 1 LAN-x NL-W 86 76
2 CHN NL-C 87 75 2 PHI-y NL-E 87 75 2 COL NL-W 83 79
3 MIL NL-C 82 80 3 NYN NL-E 81 81 3 SFN NL-W 82 80
4 CIN NL-C 75 87 4 FLO NL-E 80 82 4 ARI NL-W 82 80
5 HOU NL-C 74 88 5 WAS NL-E 74 88 5 SDN NL-W 76 86
6 PIT NL-C 70 92

ALDS:
Yankees over Rangers
Red Sox over Twins
NLDS:
Cardinals over Phillies
Braves over Dodgers
ALCS:
Yankees over Red Sox
NLCS:
Cardinals over Braves
World Series:
Yankees over Cardinals

6 Comments | Posted in Season Preview

2010 Marcel Projected Standings: American League Central

Posted by Neil Paine on March 18, 2010

NOTE: This is my attempt to predict the standings for the 2010 MLB season using Tom Tango's Marcel projection system. For NL East projections and more background info on how these projections work, go here. Other division projections: NL Central, NL West, AL East.

Rk Team Div W L Plyff wLDS wLCS wWS
1 MIN AL-C 84.9 77.1 53.4% 23.1% 10.0% 4.7%
2 DET AL-C 81.2 80.8 25.8% 10.2% 4.0% 1.5%
3 CHA AL-C 79.5 82.5 17.9% 6.3% 2.6% 1.0%
4 CLE AL-C 76.4 85.6 8.1% 2.8% 1.0% 0.3%
5 KCA AL-C 70.5 91.5 1.4% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0%

Comments Off | Posted in Season Preview

2010 Marcel Projected Standings: American League East

Posted by Neil Paine on March 17, 2010

NOTE: This is my attempt to predict the standings for the 2010 MLB season using Tom Tango's Marcel projection system. For NL East projections and more background info on how these projections work, go here. Other division projections: NL Central, NL West.

Rk Team Div W L Plyff wLDS wLCS wWS
1 NYA AL-E 94.2 67.8 84.1% 55.8% 34.2% 20.9%
2 BOS AL-E 90.6 71.4 66.0% 39.8% 21.5% 12.2%
3 TBA AL-E 86.5 75.5 34.5% 19.1% 9.1% 4.8%
4 BAL AL-E 75.7 86.3 2.5% 1.2% 0.5% 0.2%
5 TOR AL-E 73.0 89.0 0.7% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0%

1. New York Yankees

Lineup BA OBP SLG wOBA
1 SS Derek Jeter 0.305 0.374 0.429 0.355
2 DH Nick Johnson 0.274 0.399 0.411 0.357
3 1B Mark Teixeira 0.293 0.386 0.540 0.387
4 3B Alex Rodriguez 0.286 0.387 0.548 0.396
5 C Jorge Posada 0.281 0.363 0.477 0.359
6 CF Curtis Granderson 0.270 0.345 0.483 0.356
7 2B Robinson Cano 0.297 0.337 0.469 0.342
8 RF Nick Swisher 0.245 0.359 0.454 0.348
9 LF Brett Gardner 0.265 0.337 0.383 0.325
Bench
C Francisco Cervelli 0.284 0.340 0.427 0.325
1B/OF Marcus Thames 0.246 0.304 0.471 0.324
IF/OF Ramiro Peña 0.281 0.341 0.430 0.335
OF Randy Winn 0.276 0.334 0.396 0.323
Starting Rotation ERA K/9 BB/9 HR/9
1 LHP CC Sabathia 3.38 8.0 2.4 0.8
2 RHP A.J. Burnett 4.18 8.6 3.9 1.1
3 LHP Andy Pettitte 4.47 6.7 3.2 1.0
4 RHP Javier Vazquez 3.68 9.0 2.5 1.0
5 RHP Phillip Hughes 4.00 8.3 3.2 1.0
Bullpen
CL RHP Mariano Rivera 3.05 8.4 2.2 1.0
SU RHP Joba Chamberlain 4.03 8.5 3.8 1.0
SU LHP Damaso Marte 4.74 8.1 3.6 0.9
SU RHP Dave Robertson 4.14 9.4 3.8 0.9
MID RHP Chan Ho Park 4.22 7.3 3.6 0.9
MID RHP Alfredo Aceves 3.82 6.9 2.6 1.1
LR RHP Chad Gaudin 4.57 7.7 3.9 1.0
Win Scan Prob
<=65 0.0%
66-70 0.0%
71-75 0.1%
76-80 1.6%
81-85 6.7%
86-90 18.8%
91-95 30.5%
96-100 26.8%
101-105 12.5%
>=106 2.9%

What a typical Yankees World Championship season looks like:

Team Div W L Team Div W L Team Div W L
MIN AL-C 85 77 NYA AL-E 96 66 TEX AL-W 82 80
DET AL-C 81 81 BOS AL-E 90 72 ANA AL-W 81 81
CHA AL-C 79 83 TBA AL-E 86 76 SEA AL-W 80 82
CLE AL-C 76 86 BAL AL-E 76 86 OAK AL-W 79 83
KCA AL-C 70 92 TOR AL-E 73 89
Team Div W L Team Div W L Team Div W L
SLN NL-C 90 72 ATL NL-E 88 74 LAN NL-W 86 76
CHN NL-C 87 75 PHI NL-E 88 74 COL NL-W 83 79
MIL NL-C 82 80 NYN NL-E 80 82 SFN NL-W 82 80
CIN NL-C 75 87 FLO NL-E 80 82 ARI NL-W 82 80
HOU NL-C 74 88 WAS NL-E 74 88 SDN NL-W 76 86
PIT NL-C 70 92

2. Boston Red Sox

Lineup BA OBP SLG wOBA
1 LF Jacoby Ellsbury 0.295 0.352 0.419 0.349
2 2B Dustin Pedroia 0.308 0.374 0.465 0.365
3 C Victor Martinez 0.287 0.361 0.452 0.350
4 1B Kevin Youkilis 0.294 0.387 0.511 0.383
5 DH David Ortiz 0.264 0.363 0.493 0.360
6 RF J.D. Drew 0.269 0.377 0.472 0.362
7 CF Mike Cameron 0.241 0.328 0.435 0.332
8 3B Adrian Beltre 0.265 0.318 0.430 0.324
9 SS Marco Scutaro 0.266 0.348 0.378 0.324
Bench
C Jason Varitek 0.225 0.321 0.385 0.306
1B/3B Mike Lowell 0.282 0.339 0.456 0.340
IF/OF Bill Hall 0.229 0.293 0.387 0.293
OF Jeremy Hermida 0.269 0.350 0.434 0.340
Starting Rotation ERA K/9 BB/9 HR/9
1 RHP Josh Beckett 3.96 8.4 2.3 1.0
2 LHP Jon Lester 3.56 8.4 3.0 0.9
3 RHP John Lackey 3.82 7.1 2.5 1.1
4 RHP Daisuke Matsuzaka 4.25 8.2 4.2 1.1
5 RHP Clay Buchholz 4.74 7.4 3.7 1.2
Bullpen
CL RHP Jonathan Papelbon 3.00 9.1 2.7 0.8
SU LHP Hideki Okajima 3.63 7.5 3.2 1.2
SU RHP Daniel Bard 3.96 8.6 3.4 1.1
MID RHP Ramon S. Ramirez 3.63 7.4 3.8 0.8
MID RHP Manny Delcarmen 4.06 7.5 3.9 0.9
MID RHP Scott Atchison 4.32 7.2 3.6 1.1
LR RHP Tim Wakefield 4.66 5.5 3.4 1.1
Win Scan Prob
<=65 0.0%
66-70 0.1%
71-75 0.9%
76-80 4.8%
81-85 15.3%
86-90 28.1%
91-95 29.0%
96-100 16.3%
101-105 4.7%
>=106 0.7%

What a typical Boston World Championship season looks like:

Team Div W L Team Div W L Team Div W L
MIN AL-C 85 77 BOS AL-E 94 68 TEX AL-W 82 80
DET AL-C 81 81 NYA AL-E 93 69 SEA AL-W 80 82
CHA AL-C 80 82 TBA AL-E 85 77 ANA AL-W 80 82
CLE AL-C 77 85 BAL AL-E 76 86 OAK AL-W 79 83
KCA AL-C 71 91 TOR AL-E 73 89
Team Div W L Team Div W L Team Div W L
SLN NL-C 90 72 ATL NL-E 88 74 LAN NL-W 86 76
CHN NL-C 87 75 PHI NL-E 87 75 COL NL-W 83 79
MIL NL-C 82 80 NYN NL-E 81 81 SFN NL-W 82 80
CIN NL-C 75 87 FLO NL-E 80 82 ARI NL-W 81 81
HOU NL-C 74 88 WAS NL-E 74 88 SDN NL-W 76 86
PIT NL-C 69 93

3. Tampa Bay Rays

Lineup BA OBP SLG wOBA
1 SS Jason Bartlett 0.287 0.351 0.408 0.337
2 LF Carl Crawford 0.293 0.346 0.437 0.348
3 3B Evan Longoria 0.284 0.362 0.523 0.372
4 1B Carlos Peña 0.247 0.369 0.520 0.371
5 2B Ben Zobrist 0.272 0.365 0.487 0.366
6 DH Pat Burrell 0.239 0.349 0.442 0.343
7 CF B.J. Upton 0.269 0.357 0.425 0.346
8 RF Matt Joyce 0.259 0.339 0.477 0.346
9 C Kelly Shoppach 0.246 0.337 0.451 0.338
Bench
C Dioner Navarro 0.255 0.309 0.377 0.295
1B Hank Blalock 0.257 0.312 0.471 0.331
IF Willy Aybar 0.260 0.335 0.422 0.327
OF Gabe Kapler 0.264 0.330 0.450 0.336
Starting Rotation ERA K/9 BB/9 HR/9
1 RHP James Shields 4.01 7.0 2.2 1.2
2 LHP David Price 4.20 7.2 3.5 1.1
3 RHP Matt Garza 3.95 7.6 3.3 1.1
4 RHP Jeff Niemann 4.11 6.6 3.1 1.0
5 RHP Wade Davis 4.15 7.6 3.2 0.9
Bullpen
CL RHP Rafael Soriano 3.52 9.4 3.4 1.0
SU LHP J.P. Howell 3.71 9.0 3.8 0.9
SU RHP Dan Wheeler 4.05 7.4 2.7 1.4
MID RHP Grant Balfour 4.15 8.9 4.0 0.8
MID RHP Lance Cormier 4.25 5.6 3.5 1.0
MID LHP Randy Choate 4.19 6.9 3.3 1.0
LR RHP Andy Sonnanstine 5.21 6.2 2.5 1.3
Win Scan Prob
<=65 0.0%
66-70 0.6%
71-75 3.5%
76-80 12.6%
81-85 26.7%
86-90 29.9%
91-95 18.5%
96-100 6.9%
101-105 1.2%
>=106 0.1%

What a typical Tampa World Championship season looks like:

Team Div W L Team Div W L Team Div W L
MIN AL-C 85 77 TBA AL-E 93 69 TEX AL-W 82 80
DET AL-C 81 81 NYA AL-E 92 70 ANA AL-W 81 81
CHA AL-C 80 82 BOS AL-E 88 74 SEA AL-W 80 82
CLE AL-C 76 86 BAL AL-E 76 86 OAK AL-W 78 84
KCA AL-C 70 92 TOR AL-E 73 89
Team Div W L Team Div W L Team Div W L
SLN NL-C 90 72 ATL NL-E 88 74 LAN NL-W 86 76
CHN NL-C 87 75 PHI NL-E 88 74 COL NL-W 83 79
MIL NL-C 82 80 NYN NL-E 81 81 SFN NL-W 82 80
CIN NL-C 76 86 FLO NL-E 80 82 ARI NL-W 81 81
HOU NL-C 74 88 WAS NL-E 74 88 SDN NL-W 76 86
PIT NL-C 69 93

4. Baltimore Orioles

Lineup BA OBP SLG wOBA
1 2B Brian Roberts 0.281 0.360 0.437 0.353
2 CF Adam Jones 0.277 0.331 0.442 0.334
3 RF Nick Markakis 0.297 0.370 0.473 0.364
4 3B Miguel Tejada 0.287 0.327 0.426 0.322
5 C Matt Wieters 0.290 0.350 0.428 0.339
6 LF Nolan Reimold 0.278 0.358 0.461 0.356
7 DH Luke Scott 0.254 0.337 0.471 0.342
8 1B Garrett Atkins 0.267 0.330 0.425 0.329
9 SS Cesar Izturis 0.258 0.311 0.338 0.291
Bench
C Craig Tatum 0.246 0.322 0.384 0.307
IF Robert Andino 0.249 0.310 0.365 0.293
IF Ty Wigginton 0.271 0.328 0.442 0.330
OF Felix Pie 0.262 0.328 0.412 0.321
Starting Rotation ERA K/9 BB/9 HR/9
1 RHP Kevin Millwood 4.50 6.1 3.2 1.2
2 RHP Jeremy Guthrie 4.45 5.7 2.8 1.4
3 RHP Brad Bergesen 3.76 5.8 2.7 0.9
4 LHP Brian Matusz 4.39 7.5 3.1 1.1
5 RHP Chris Tillman 4.65 6.5 3.2 1.5
Bullpen
CL LHP Mike Gonzalez 3.41 9.0 3.8 1.0
SU RHP Jim Johnson 3.90 6.3 3.4 0.8
SU RHP Koji Uehara 4.35 6.6 2.7 1.1
MID LHP Alberto Castillo 4.24 6.9 3.4 1.1
MID RHP Kam Mickolio 4.09 7.4 3.5 0.8
MID RHP Cla Meredith 4.15 6.2 3.0 0.8
LR LHP Mark Hendrickson 4.94 5.8 3.1 1.2
Win Scan Prob
<=65 5.2%
66-70 15.2%
71-75 28.3%
76-80 28.9%
81-85 16.1%
86-90 5.5%
91-95 0.8%
96-100 0.0%
101-105 0.0%
>=106 0.0%

What a typical Baltimore World Championship season looks like:

Team Div W L Team Div W L Team Div W L
MIN AL-C 84 78 BAL AL-E 89 73 TEX AL-W 84 78
CHA AL-C 80 82 NYA AL-E 88 74 ANA AL-W 81 81
DET AL-C 79 83 BOS AL-E 85 77 OAK AL-W 80 82
CLE AL-C 78 84 TBA AL-E 85 77 SEA AL-W 80 82
KCA AL-C 70 92 TOR AL-E 74 88
Team Div W L Team Div W L Team Div W L
SLN NL-C 89 73 PHI NL-E 89 73 LAN NL-W 85 77
CHN NL-C 86 76 ATL NL-E 88 74 COL NL-W 84 78
MIL NL-C 84 78 FLO NL-E 79 83 ARI NL-W 81 81
HOU NL-C 76 86 NYN NL-E 78 84 SFN NL-W 80 82
CIN NL-C 75 87 WAS NL-E 71 91 SDN NL-W 77 85
PIT NL-C 69 93

5. Toronto Blue Jays

Lineup BA OBP SLG wOBA
1 RF Jose Bautista 0.243 0.333 0.413 0.323
2 2B Aaron Hill 0.281 0.332 0.463 0.341
3 LF Adam Lind 0.286 0.344 0.494 0.354
4 CF Vernon Wells 0.262 0.316 0.424 0.319
5 1B Lyle Overbay 0.259 0.350 0.428 0.337
6 3B Edwin Encarnacion 0.259 0.342 0.443 0.343
7 RF Travis Snider 0.270 0.346 0.447 0.341
8 C John Buck 0.236 0.310 0.413 0.311
9 SS Alex Gonzalez 0.251 0.304 0.403 0.300
Bench
C Jose Molina 0.235 0.291 0.339 0.275
1B Randy Ruiz 0.277 0.347 0.475 0.351
IF John McDonald 0.241 0.283 0.354 0.273
OF Jeremy Reed 0.259 0.318 0.366 0.298
Starting Rotation ERA K/9 BB/9 HR/9
1 LHP Ricky Romero 4.29 7.2 3.7 1.0
2 RHP Shaun Marcum 3.99 7.2 3.1 1.4
3 RHP Brandon Morrow 4.13 8.5 4.6 1.1
4 LHP Marc Rzepczynski 4.05 7.8 3.7 1.1
5 LHP Brian Tallet 4.69 6.9 3.9 1.0
Bullpen
CL RHP Jason Frasor 3.97 7.8 3.7 0.9
SU LHP Scott Downs 3.44 7.5 3.3 0.8
SU RHP Kevin Gregg 4.09 8.2 4.1 1.1
MID LHP Jesse Carlson 4.15 7.1 3.2 1.0
MID RHP Jeremy Accardo 3.92 6.7 3.7 0.9
MID RHP Josh Roenicke 4.61 7.7 3.7 0.9
LR RHP Shawn Camp 4.30 6.8 3.4 0.9
Win Scan Prob
<=65 11.7%
66-70 23.0%
71-75 30.8%
76-80 22.7%
81-85 9.7%
86-90 2.0%
91-95 0.2%
96-100 0.0%
101-105 0.0%
>=106 0.0%

What a typical Toronto World Championship season looks like:

Team Div W L Team Div W L Team Div W L
MIN AL-C 83 80 NYA AL-E 92 70 OAK AL-W 85 78
CLE AL-C 80 83 TOR AL-E 91 72 TEX AL-W 83 80
DET AL-C 78 84 BOS AL-E 86 77 SEA AL-W 82 80
KCA AL-C 72 90 TBA AL-E 78 84 ANA AL-W 78 85
CHA AL-C 71 92 BAL AL-E 76 86
Team Div W L Team Div W L Team Div W L
SLN NL-C 93 70 ATL NL-E 88 74 SFN NL-W 86 77
CHN NL-C 87 75 PHI NL-E 83 80 ARI NL-W 85 78
MIL NL-C 87 76 FLO NL-E 79 84 LAN NL-W 81 81
HOU NL-C 82 81 WAS NL-E 79 84 COL NL-W 79 83
PIT NL-C 77 86 NYN NL-E 75 87 SDN NL-W 78 85
CIN NL-C 65 97

5 Comments | Posted in Season Preview

2010 Marcel Projected Standings: National League West

Posted by Neil Paine on March 16, 2010

NOTE: This is my attempt to predict the standings for the 2010 MLB season using Tom Tango's Marcel projection system. For NL East projections and more background info on how these projections work, go here. For NL Central projections, go here.

Rk Team Div W L Plyff wLDS wLCS wWS
1 LAN NL-W 85.7 76.3 47.6% 23.4% 12.1% 5.5%
2 COL NL-W 83.0 79.0 29.1% 12.9% 6.0% 2.6%
3 SFN NL-W 81.8 80.2 21.1% 9.7% 4.2% 1.8%
4 ARI NL-W 81.5 80.5 20.3% 9.2% 4.1% 1.6%
5 SDN NL-W 75.8 86.2 4.4% 1.7% 0.6% 0.2%

4 Comments | Posted in Season Preview

2010 Marcel Projected Standings: National League Central

Posted by Neil Paine on March 15, 2010

NOTE: This is my attempt to predict the standings for the 2010 MLB season using Tom Tango's Marcel projection system. For more background info on how these projections work, go here.

Rk Team Div W L Plyff wLDS wLCS wWS
1 SLN NL-C 90.1 71.9 70.8% 38.9% 21.5% 10.6%
2 CHN NL-C 86.7 75.3 46.2% 22.7% 11.1% 5.3%
3 MIL NL-C 82.0 80.0 18.0% 8.3% 3.6% 1.5%
4 CIN NL-C 75.3 86.7 2.6% 0.9% 0.2% 0.1%
5 HOU NL-C 74.0 88.0 1.6% 0.5% 0.2% 0.0%
6 PIT NL-C 69.5 92.5 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%

2 Comments | Posted in Season Preview

2010 Marcel Projected Standings: National League East

Posted by Neil Paine on March 14, 2010

Everyone loves projected standings at this time of the year, since it gives us another baseball-related topic to argue about before the games start to count for real in a few weeks. With that in mind, I thought I'd throw another batch of projections out there to join the great work by Sean Smith, Baseball Prospectus, and others. The projection system of choice? Marcel the Monkey, of course, since it's completely open-source, surprisingly accurate given its simplicity, and at the very least should provide a decent sanity check against other, more sophisticated methods.

The other component of any team-projection method is allocating playing time, and for that I used a great site that's only been around for a year or so, called MLB Depth Charts. They offer downloadable depth charts in spreadsheet form, updated every day, so you should definitely check them out (the set I used was from last Thursday, 3/11/2010). I allocated playing time based on how teams over the past 3 years had used their players: AL teams gave 90% of their outs to their 9 starting batters and top 4 bench players, NL teams gave 84% of their outs to their top 8 hitters and top 5 bench players, teams in both leagues gave 31% of their pitching outs to their top 7 relievers, etc. This method isn't perfect, but it's also fairly accurate without me having to introduce any biases into the process, which was important if this was going to be done in the spirit of the Marcels (motto: the "dumbest" possible projections).

9 Comments | Posted in Season Preview