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# Archive for the 'Sabermetrics' Category

## How Many Players Would Have 95 RBI in Ryan Howard’s Opportunities?

16th August 2011

Here's a fun exercise to follow up on Sean's NYT piece about Ryan Howard (and his radio interview today)...

It seems to me that the core question in the Howard debate is this: how many RBIs would other players have if they got to hit behind players who got on base as frequently as Howard's teammates do?

Well, a quick and dirty way to answer that is to look at how many RBIs a player has relative to the number of baserunners (BR) aboard when he's at the plate. Based on their 2011 rates of RBI per BR (and min. 350 PA), here are players who would also have 95 RBI if afforded Howard's 375 BR:

Posted in Insane ideas, Sabermetrics | 112 Comments »

25th April 2011

I have to admit that I find it very hard to follow all of the great research that people people are producing every day on the web. Just for baseball, culling through the good stuff on Baseball Prospectus, Hardball Times and FanGraphs is hard enough, but when you add in team blogs, other stathead blogs and everything else, it becomes impossible. This doesn't even include trying to locate recent research in hockey, basketball, football and soccer.

So we've decided to do something about it. Every weekday, the Stathead blog will summarize the best research-related studies, news, conferences, and resources for baseball, basketball, football, hockey and soccer.

The blog will primarily be edited by Neil Paine and will typically feature 20-30 links to analytic content around the internet. We've been working out the format over the last two weeks, and we think you'll soon appreciate our concise summaries for all of the articles we write about.

Feedback as always is welcome.

## Bloops: A method for determining the probability that a given team was the true best team in some particular year

25th April 2011

In January 2004, Tangotiger posted this at his site:

http://www.tangotiger.net/archives/stud0268.shtml

It linked to a very cool mathematical method for determining the probability that any team was the "true" best team in a season. Unfortunately, though, webpages sometimes have a tendency to disappear over the course of 7 years. That's just what happened here -- the original link is now dead.

However, I contacted the creator of the methodology, Dr. Jesse Frey (Professor of Mathematical Science at Villanova), and he was gracious enough to re-upload the original study to his current site:

http://www19.homepage.villanova.edu/jesse.frey/BestTeam/forprimer.htm

Now sabermetricians can once again estimate the probability of any team truly being baseball's best. And for what it's worth, here are the current results from a very simplified version:

1 PHI NL 15 6 0.714 0.099 0.558 0.051 16.4%
2 COL NL 14 7 0.667 0.103 0.542 0.052 10.8%
3 TEX AL 14 7 0.667 0.103 0.542 0.052 9.9%
4 NYY AL 12 6 0.667 0.111 0.538 0.053 9.1%
5 FLA NL 13 7 0.650 0.107 0.536 0.052 7.9%
6 CLE AL 13 8 0.619 0.106 0.529 0.052 6.2%
7 LAA AL 12 10 0.545 0.106 0.511 0.052 3.5%
8 STL NL 12 10 0.545 0.106 0.511 0.052 3.2%
9 KCR AL 12 10 0.545 0.106 0.511 0.052 3.2%
10 DET AL 12 10 0.545 0.106 0.511 0.052 3.1%
11 MIL NL 11 10 0.524 0.109 0.506 0.053 2.6%
12 LAD NL 12 11 0.522 0.104 0.505 0.052 2.4%
13 OAK AL 11 11 0.500 0.107 0.500 0.052 2.3%
14 TBR AL 11 11 0.500 0.107 0.500 0.052 2.2%
15 WSN NL 10 10 0.500 0.112 0.500 0.053 2.1%
Rank Tm Lg W L WPct Stdev BayesW% Stdev p(best)
16 CIN NL 11 11 0.500 0.107 0.500 0.052 1.8%
16 SFG NL 10 11 0.476 0.109 0.494 0.053 1.8%
18 BOS AL 10 11 0.476 0.109 0.494 0.053 1.8%
19 ATL NL 11 12 0.478 0.104 0.495 0.052 1.7%
20 CHC NL 10 11 0.476 0.109 0.494 0.053 1.6%
21 TOR AL 9 12 0.429 0.108 0.483 0.052 1.0%
22 PIT NL 9 12 0.429 0.108 0.483 0.052 1.0%
23 MIN AL 9 12 0.429 0.108 0.483 0.052 0.8%
24 NYM NL 9 13 0.409 0.105 0.478 0.052 0.8%
25 BAL AL 8 12 0.400 0.110 0.477 0.053 0.8%
26 ARI NL 8 12 0.400 0.110 0.477 0.053 0.7%
27 HOU NL 8 14 0.364 0.103 0.465 0.052 0.5%
28 CHW AL 8 14 0.364 0.103 0.465 0.052 0.3%
28 SDP NL 8 14 0.364 0.103 0.465 0.052 0.3%
30 SEA AL 8 15 0.348 0.099 0.459 0.051 0.3%

Posted in Bloops, Sabermetrics | 18 Comments »

## 2011 WAR Now Updated

19th April 2011

2011 Wins Above Replacement data is now live on the site and will be updated daily throughout the season. This includes the league pages, player pages, team pages, and Play Index, among other locations.

Position Players

1 Matt Kemp 1.5 2011 LAD NL 17 61 13 28 5 0 3 13 9 9 8 2 .459 .529 .689 1.217 *8
2 Joey Votto 1.4 2011 CIN NL 16 56 16 24 4 1 2 8 14 7 3 1 .429 .535 .643 1.178 *3
3 Troy Tulowitzki 1.4 2011 COL NL 16 58 12 20 3 1 7 14 14 7 0 0 .345 .466 .793 1.259 *6
4 Adrian Beltre 1.0 2011 TEX AL 16 64 11 17 4 0 5 16 1 8 0 0 .266 .288 .563 .850 *5
5 Howie Kendrick 1.0 2011 LAA AL 16 66 11 21 3 1 5 8 7 14 0 0 .318 .392 .621 1.013 *4/3
6 Jose Bautista 1.0 2011 TOR AL 13 49 9 15 1 0 3 6 12 12 2 0 .306 .443 .510 .953 *9
7 Pablo Sandoval 1.0 2011 SFG NL 16 54 8 18 1 0 4 10 7 10 0 1 .333 .410 .574 .984 *5
8 Maicer Izturis 1.0 2011 LAA AL 14 64 7 25 7 0 1 7 2 10 2 2 .391 .409 .547 .956 *6/D45
9 Jose Tabata 1.0 2011 PIT NL 16 63 14 20 4 0 3 4 11 13 8 1 .317 .427 .524 .950 *7/8
10 Asdrubal Cabrera 1.0 2011 CLE AL 16 66 9 19 2 1 4 14 5 13 1 0 .288 .342 .530 .873 *6
11 Jeff Francoeur 1.0 2011 KCR AL 15 61 11 20 4 1 2 11 4 8 2 0 .328 .358 .525 .883 *9
12 Colby Rasmus 1.0 2011 STL NL 16 66 15 24 5 2 2 5 9 14 1 0 .364 .440 .591 1.031 *8
13 Dustin Pedroia 1.0 2011 BOS AL 15 57 10 18 4 0 2 6 8 10 0 0 .316 .409 .491 .900 *4
Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 4/19/2011.

Pitchers

1 Dan Haren 1.4 2011 LAA AL 5 4 0 0 31.0 1.16 339 .164 .179 .245 .424 19
2 Roy Halladay 1.3 2011 PHI NL 3 2 0 0 22.0 1.23 329 .210 .247 .235 .482 34
3 Gio Gonzalez 1.2 2011 OAK AL 3 2 0 0 19.0 0.47 855 .182 .308 .258 .565 62
4 Jered Weaver 1.1 2011 LAA AL 4 4 0 0 27.2 1.30 303 .137 .219 .221 .440 27
5 Brett Myers 1.1 2011 HOU NL 4 1 0 0 26.1 2.39 162 .253 .306 .444 .750 111
6 CC Sabathia 1.0 2011 NYY AL 4 0 1 0 25.0 2.52 165 .263 .327 .326 .653 82
7 Tim Lincecum 1.0 2011 SFG NL 4 2 1 0 27.0 1.67 244 .175 .245 .258 .503 40
8 Derek Lowe 1.0 2011 ATL NL 4 2 2 0 24.2 1.82 215 .225 .281 .270 .551 55
9 Jaime Garcia 0.9 2011 STL NL 3 2 0 0 20.0 1.35 291 .225 .286 .254 .539 53
10 Josh Beckett 0.9 2011 BOS AL 3 2 1 0 20.0 1.80 236 .147 .234 .206 .440 23
11 Matt Cain 0.9 2011 SFG NL 3 2 0 0 19.0 1.42 288 .206 .260 .294 .554 52
12 Jhoulys Chacin 0.9 2011 COL NL 3 3 0 0 22.0 1.64 284 .231 .291 .269 .560 48
13 Matt Harrison 0.9 2011 TEX AL 3 3 0 0 22.0 1.23 342 .187 .247 .267 .514 43
14 Trevor Cahill 0.9 2011 OAK AL 4 2 0 0 25.1 2.49 162 .177 .233 .250 .483 37
Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 4/19/2011.

## Bloops: Get Your Last-Minute Sabermetric Predictions Here

31st March 2011

Before you take in the Opening Day action, here are some last-minute sabermetric predictions to chew on:

Posted in Bloops, Sabermetrics | Comments Off on Bloops: Get Your Last-Minute Sabermetric Predictions Here

## Bloops: A Saber Seminar to Benefit the Jimmy Fund

23rd March 2011

In May, Harvard will be hosting a sabermetric seminar to raise money for the Dana-Farber Cancer Institute:

"Sabermetrics, Scouting, and the Science of Baseball is a 2 day baseball-centric seminar at Harvard's Pfizer Lecture Hall on May 21 and 22. All proceeds from this event will benefit the Jimmy Fund. Speakers include Jared Porter, Dan Brooks, Tom Tippett, Andy Andres, Dr. Alan Nathan, Jeremy Greenhouse, David Gassko, Mitchel Lichtman, David Sheinberg, Michael Richmond, and Chuck Korb. ESPN writer Jonah Keri will be MC'ing one of the days, and there may be one or two others folks added, as well.

Planned seminars include an explanation of linear weights and WPI/LI, a discussion of pitch f/x, the bio-mechanics of a baseball swing, the visuomotor aspects of the game - getting information into your brain, how fast players make decisions, the psychophysics of hitting, etc., what the most advanced defensive stats entail and where they are going, forecasting player performance, modern technologies for tracking the baseball, how the spin of a ball affects its flight (i.e., why a ball curves), and question and answer sessions with Tom Tippett and Jared Porter."

Sounds like a great way to learn more about baseball research, and to contribute to an extremely worthy cause in the process. All of the money from the seminar will go to the Jimmy Fund, since the speakers have donated their time and Harvard is letting them use their facilities gratis.

Posted in Bloops, Sabermetrics | Comments Off on Bloops: A Saber Seminar to Benefit the Jimmy Fund

## Bloops: Beware the ‘Bases Fallacy’

22nd March 2011

Over at The Book Blog, Tangotiger offers another friendly reminder about the required reading out there regarding the dreaded Bases Fallacy. Although it can happen to the best of us (one of my most embarrassing moments to be sure), once you know about the bases fallacy, you must do everything in your power to prevent the bases fallacy from happening again.

Posted in Bloops, Sabermetrics, Stats | 17 Comments »

## Bloops: Sabermetric Cartoons!

17th March 2011

Curious about the role of luck in pitching statistics? Then prepare yourself for a series of sabermetric cartoons courtesy of DRaysBay's Bradley Woodrum...

Posted in Bloops, Sabermetrics, Videos | 6 Comments »

## MLB EloRater: Who Are the Best Players in MLB History?

11th March 2011

Over at Basketball-Reference.com, the Player Elo Rater has been up and running for several weeks, and I'm now pleased that we have it up and running on Baseball-Reference.com as well.

Justin Kubatko put together the guts for the system and I don't have much to add beyond his introduction to the method. Please let me know if you have any suggestions.

I have also just added the player's current rank to their player pages where they appear just below the player newsfeed. I'll be rolling out rankings to franchise, year and the front page, next week probably.

## Bloops: CAIRO Early Projected 2011 Standings

11th February 2011

In an annual tradition for the Replacement-Level Yankees Weblog, they plugged their CAIRO projections into depth charts from the terrific MLBDepthCharts.com, and came up with some early expectations for the upcoming season:

Replacement Level Yankees Weblog - CAIRO v0.6 and Still Too Early 2011 MLB Projected Standings

Posted in Bloops, Sabermetrics, Season Preview | 8 Comments »