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Mini-Bloops: When Will Jeter Hit #3,000?

Posted by Neil Paine on February 2, 2011

B-R reader Mark writes in with this estimate of which specific game Derek Jeter will notch hit #3,000 in:

"When will Jeter get his 74th hit in 2011? For any Yankees season subscriber, this is a very important question to figure out before selling unwanted 2011 games.

  • Based on career H/G average (1.27) , game #58 on 6/3 (assumes he plays every game in 2011)
  • Based on historical record of his 74th hit every season: game 60 or 65 (6/5 or 6/11) depending on whether you consider historical Team G#s or Player G#s of each year's H# 74.

The first was simple math based on career stats.

The second was culled from b-r's Game Logs, copied as CSV into Excel, and derived from there by adding a cumulative H column for each season to the game records."

Nice to see someone using the site tools for their own mini-research projects. Of course, I would add that it's probably unrealistic to expect Jeter to hit at his career norms next season, so if we use last year's rates we get:

Based on this extremely simple analysis, you should probably expect Jeter's 3000th hit sometime in the first 2 weeks of June.

This entry was posted on Wednesday, February 2nd, 2011 at 5:46 pm and is filed under Bloops, Mailbag. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. Both comments and pings are currently closed.

36 Responses to “Mini-Bloops: When Will Jeter Hit #3,000?”

  1. I haven't checked the stats on it, but it seems to me that players get a bit nerved and struggle a few games to get that 3000th hit. So it might be a good idea to add a couple games, to the game #65 estimation?

  2. Also if they are on the road when he's getting close, they might sit him down a few games.

    I remember the year Hank Aaron was closing in on Babe Ruth's 714 homer record.
    I think they announced they were going to sit him down and wait until the Braves got home.

    If memory serves, there was a hue and cry about it and he played and I believe he hit the tying 714th homer in Cincinnati.

    Then they went home to Atlanta and I believe he homered first game back off of Al Downing of the Dodgers for # 715.

    I should look it up on this great site for stuff like this, but am going to rely on my fading memory...

  3. Looks like the Yankees play the Red Sox June 7th,8th,9th in NYC. That looks like it will be a realllllll hard ticket.

  4. @2

    You're absolutely right. Atlanta was going to sit him for the whole Cincinnati series, but the commish said he had to play at least two of the games. He did, in fact, hit #714 in that series, and hit the record-breaker the very next series. Good memory.

  5. Speaking of Henry Aaron's pursuit of #715 in early '74, two questions:

    1. By what right -- ethical, if not legal -- did Bowie Kuhn presume to dictate that Aaron must play at least 2 games of the opening 3-game set in Cincinnati? And if Aaron had not managed to set the record during Atlanta's first homestand, how long might Kuhn have continued to dictate when Aaron must play? Aaron was 40 years old in 1974; he'd played 120 games the year before, hadn't played 140 games since 1970. If he had sat out that opening series, so what?

    2. Where was Kuhn's intervention when the 1974 schedule was being drawn up? With Aaron sitting on 713, could not MLB have granted the Braves the tiny favor of opening the season with that 10-game homestand that followed the series in Cincinnati? I suppose there could have been a scheduling conflict with their home park, but sheesh -- putting Aaron on the road to start the season just seems like a colossal (but typical) oversight by MLB in that era.

    In my opinion, Kuhn was a tone-deaf, foot-dragging, meddlesome, pompous jackass. His unwarranted intrusion into Aaron's chase is just one of many blots on his abominable tenure as Commissioner, and his election to the Hall of Fame was a disgrace. Meaning no unkindness to his family, I am glad that at least it happened after he passed.

  6. Also, Jeter is unlikely to perform at his career average this year. He'll probably play at a lower level, pushing the 3000th hit further back than when we use career averages.

  7. On a couple of guys who didn't quite make it to 3,000 hits:

    -- Sam Crawford left MLB at age 37 with 2,961 hits, which was 4th in MLB history to that point (behind Wagner, Lajoie and Anson). He had been very productive through age 36 and had amassed 2,943 hits, but at 37 he got just 18 hits in 104 AB (.173). It's a pretty safe bet that Crawford would have stuck around the majors to get to 3,000 hits, had it been considered a major milestone at the time. Over the next 4 years, playing for Los Angeles in the PCL, Wahoo Sam racked up 781 hits (239 in both 1919 and '20). In 1919, he led that circuit in hits and total bases, and was 2nd in BA (.360) and triples 18 triples. In 1920, at age 40 -- the oldest batter in the league -- he was 1st with 21 triples, 3rd in total bases, 4th in SLG, 5th in hits, and 9th in BA. In '21, his final season in pro ball, Crawford had 199 hits, including 44 doubles and 10 triples.

    -- Sam Rice retired in 1934 at #7 on the all-time hits list with 2,987. Rice didn't really get going in the majors until age 27 (he had 62 hits before that), then missed all but 7 games of his age-28 season. But from age 29 on, Rice amassed 2,740 hits -- more than any player in history except Pete Rose (2,929). In his final season, age 44, Rice was a starting of for 3rd-place Cleveland, hitting .293 -- a career low -- with just 9 strikeouts in 335 AB. Rice almost surely would have made it to 3,000 had he stayed in the lineup in September. Through Aug. 28, he was 18 hits shy of 3,000 with 32 games left on the schedule, having averaged 0.76 hits per team-game to that point. But he was limited to PH duty the rest of the way, starting just one more game in his career. He went out with a bang, going 3 for 5 with a double, 2 RBI and a run.

  8. Dragging myself back on topic:

    -- Of the 27 current members of the 3,000-hit club, only 4 averaged more hits per game than Jeter's current figure of 1.275: Cobb, Lajoie, Gwynn and Anson.

  9. Aaron hit the tying home run on the first pitch that he swung at for the year. And he hit #715 on the first pitch he swung at in Atlanta.

    @5., Fans who buy tickets have a right to see both teams trying their best. Can you imagine if a team that had a 10 game lead with 11 games to go played all scrubs in the last game of a road trip in the 2nd place team's city? Sure, the home town fans want to see them clinch. But that's not cricket, or baseball.

  10. Oh, and except for including Aaron, I agree with "In my opinion, Kuhn was a tone-deaf, foot-dragging, meddlesome, pompous jackass. His unwarranted intrusion into Aaron's chase is just one of many blots on his abominable tenure as Commissioner, and his election to the Hall of Fame was a disgrace. Meaning no unkindness to his family, I am glad that at least it happened after he passed." Kuhn was the first commissioner I remember and he lasted forever. I got so used to the commissioner being a pompous ass that on the rare occasions since when it hasn't been true, I've felt quite disoriented.

  11. @2 The Yankees are unlikely to anything more than light gerrymandering in order to get Jeter to be very likely to get #3000 at home.The Yankees aren't going to sit Jeter a series or even two of three games of a series. I'd be very surprised if an uninformed observer could review Jeter's gamelogs at a later date and notice any notable difference in his starts compared to the rest of his career or the rest of 2011.

    If things line up right, though, and I were the Yankees and we have a game or three left on the road trip and it's as likely or more likely that Jeter would get it before the homestand, and we are fortuitous to be early into a lopsided game, I'd probably pull Jeter and maybe sit him one game.

    But I think that's the difference between things lining up to do a little manipulation to force it to happen at home and saving an aging vet's milestone for the home park. The former may happen but I'd put money on that the latter will not.

  12. Someone want to research the big milestones; (3000 hits, 500 HR, 300 Wins for a pitcher), and see how often they were reached at home? Maybe putting those who had spent all/most of their careers for one team in a separate category?

  13. 300 wins is pretty easy, since it's only got 24 members.

    Pud Galvin - if we use the October 5, 1888 date provided by MLB.com - ROAD
    Tim Keefe - June 4, 1890 - HOME
    Mickey Welch - July 28, 1890 - ROAD
    Old Hoss Radbourn - June 2, 1891 - ROAD
    John Clarkson - September 21, 1892 - HOME
    Kid Nichols - July 7, 1900 - ROAD
    Cy Young - July 12, 1901 - HOME
    Christy Mathewson - June 13, 1912 - HOME
    Eddie Plank - if we use the September 11, 1915 date provided by MLB.com - HOME
    Walter Johnson - May 14, 1920 - HOME
    Grover Cleveland Alexander - September 20, 1924 - ROAD
    Lefty Grove - July 25, 1941 - HOME
    Warren Spahn - August 11, 1961 - HOME
    Early Wynn - July 13, 1963 - ROAD
    Gaylord Perry - May 6, 1982 - HOME
    Steve Carlton - September 23, 1983 - ROAD
    Tom Seaver - August 4, 1985 - ROAD
    Phil Niekro - October 6, 1985 - ROAD
    Don Sutton - June 18, 1986 - HOME
    Nolan Ryan - July 31, 1990 - ROAD
    Roger Clemens - June 13, 2003 - HOME
    Greg Maddux - August 7, 2004 - ROAD
    Tom Glavine - August 5, 2007 - ROAD
    Randy Johnson - June 4, 2009 - ROAD (I was there!)

    HOME 11, ROAD 13
    Only 45.8% reached at home.

  14. There's always a possibility of an injury like Jason Kendall in 1999

  15. Jeter probably won't even perform at last year's level (in terms of repeating when he reached hit #74 in 2010 - game 57). Jeter actually got off to a hot start early last season, which means his drop-off last year was even more drastic than you would think even looking at his final numbers.

    He finished April @ .330 and was hitting .300 as late as June 6th.

  16. Lawrence Azrin Says:

    @1/... Devon & His 1982 Topps blog Says:
    " I haven't checked the stats on it, but it seems to me that players get a bit nerved and struggle a few games to get that 3000th hit... "

    Devon, it's only anectdotal, but I remember Yaz struggling a lot before his 3,000th hit, which he got on 9/24/79 (a grounder past Willie Randolph), going something like 0-for-14 between #2999 and #3000. The 0-fer was at Fenway, which I'm sure increased the pressure.

    @5/ @10... I agree with your assessment of Bowie Kuhn; he was the first Commissioner I remember (after I understood what a "Commissioner" was) and he was around forever, so I just assumed whoever held the office would be clueless.

    It's a _disgace_ that Kuhn is in the HOF, while Marvin Miller has yet to be elected.

  17. @12, Kds -- With all due respect, breaking Ruth's career HR record cannot be compared even with such enormous milestones as 3,000 hits or 300 wins.

    The only comparables I can think of are (a) Rose breaking Cobb's hits record, and (b) Ripken breaking Gehrig's consecutive games record. Both of those were accomplished at home. Obviously, Ripken did not skip any games in order to make it happen; but I suspect the schedule makers made sure that he would be at home when the time came.

  18. #8: batting leadoff probably helps with that--I would assume Jeter also has more PAs per game than most of the other guys in the club. This is also thanks to playing in a higher-scoring era.

  19. @9, Dvd Avins:

    1. "Fans who buy tickets have a right to see both teams trying their best."

    In a broad sense, yes. But that principle does not reach within ten miles of whether or not one specific player appears in one specific game or series in April. Or do you think MLB should dictate each team's starting lineup and usage of relief pitchers? What about September games when a team is out of the race and starts a lot of minor-league call-ups? What about the 2nd game of a double-header?

    Aaron was 40 years old in 1974, and played in 112 games. Do you think that fans who bought tickets to Atlanta's other 50 games should get their money back? Or that the pennant race was somehow compromised because Aaron played in 16 of 18 games against the Dodgers (who finished 1st), but just 11 of 18 against the Reds (who finished 4 games back)? What about fans of the last-place Padres fans, who got to see Aaron in just 8 of 18 games? Should Aaron have been forced to play more games just because fans wanted to see him?

    And if Kuhn was right to order Aaron to play in Cincinnati, then why didn't he order Aaron to play all three games?

    Kuhn's ruling was absurd on its face. It set a precedent that could not possibly have been applied with any sort of consistency.

    2. "Can you imagine if a team that had a 10 game lead with 11 games to go played all scrubs in the last game of a road trip in the 2nd place team's city?"

    Actually, I can imagine that team doing anything they darn well please with their starting lineup. No one has the right to dictate a team's player usage in such situations unless their actions amount to a clear and convincing violation of fair play.

    Fans who buy tickets have every right to be disappointed when stars do not play. But they have zero actual say in the matter, which is as it must be.

  20. "Devon, it's only anectdotal, but I remember Yaz struggling a lot before his 3,000th hit, which he got on 9/24/79 (a grounder past Willie Randolph), going something like 0-for-14 between #2999 and #3000. The 0-fer was at Fenway, which I'm sure increased the pressure."

    I think we often look too far into instances like this. How many other times in his career did Yaz have an 0-for-14 (or worse) streak? Is it possible he was pressing? Yea. But it's also possible he simply had a bad series or lined up against 3 tough pitchers. Outside of a player admitting he's pressing (as ARod did recently on the eve of a HR milestone), an absurdly prolonged streak, or evidence of a change in approach (swinging from the heals for a batter who normally has a smooth stroke), I try to stay away from such conjecture.

    JA-

    I thought the same thing and agree with you wholeheartedly. If I was the Braves, I would have started him batting in the 8th hole (to almost assure he doesn't bat in the 1st) and then bench him after one out is recorded. The commissioner should have no say in how a team constructs its team or lineup, unless there is evidence of collusion. I understand that we want to ensure the competitive spirit of the game, but it's not like the Braves were forfeiting games.

  21. More about Hank --

    I'm born and raised in Atlanta - so there are 2 interesting things that happened the day I was born 1. -- The Beatles played Atlanta Stadium, which was basically a AAA park that year, while lawyers kept the Braves in Milwaukee.

    2. Hank hit a HR in St. Louis but was called out for being out of the batters box. I have still never heard of that happening since. I think it's pretty wild to think that he may have been TIED going into the '74 season. Does anybody out there know if he hit any HR's in games that were PPD in progress --- or how many games he may have missed because the game ended up being scrubbed from the schedule because the Braves were too far out for the game to be important enough to be made up. I also know that each team had approx 6 games lost due to the strike of '72 which brings up a whole new can of worms on what was missed due to the long strike of '81 and the lockout of 94 and late start of 95. The '81 strike makes me think of how many more hits Rose would have had - the 94-95 thing makes me think that Ripken would have set the record sooner.

    I'm sure there are several circumstances such as this --maybe if we (bb ref nation) are bored we could run some scenarios on whatifsports.com?

    Thanks

    PS - if anyone cares --- the date I was mentioning above --- 8-18-1965 - maybe someone can share what happened in that game?

  22. @21, Mikeyjax -- Thanks for that note. I did not know about the HR Aaron lost on that out-of-the-batter's-box ruling.

    Here's a first-person account that I found online at http://www.tommcmahon.net/2007/02/the_night_i_saw.html :

    Simmons had been one of the 1950 Philadelphia Phillies Whiz Kids who won the pennant that year, but now nearing the end of his career with his fastball gone, he relied on his skill and experience as a pitcher. That is to say, he threw a lot of junk. ...

    [In the 6th inning], Simmons threw one ssllllowwwwwww curve ball after another to Aaron. ... Aaron was pouncing on them, almost cartoon-style, fouling one off after another until he flied out to center. The crowd was going nuts, it was a terrific show by two great ball players.

    But all that was nothing compared to what was in store when Aaron came to bat with the score tied 3-3 in the 8th inning. The whole crowd was completely mesmerized by the show Simmons was putting on. One slow curve after another. It was almost as if he were placing the ball on a T-ball standing and daring Aaron to try to hit it. Aaron was fouling off pitch after pitch. ... Finally on one pitch Aaron did kind of a hop, skip, and double shuffle, lunging at the ball and with a flick of his quick wrists, powering the ball over the right field roof. ...

    But home plate umpire Chris Pelekoudas ruled that Aaron had violated rule 6.06(a), which as you know states that a batter must keep both feet within the batter's box (some say that Cardinals catcher Bob Uecker pointed this out to Pelekoudas). So instead of a home run, Aaron was ruled out. And yes, he was out of the batter's box, no doubt about it. Everyone in the park knew it. In fact, Aaron had stepped out of the batter's box on the previous at-bat, but Pelekoudas hadn't called it because he had flied out anyway.

    So that's the story, pretty much. Milwaukee ended up winning the game on a 9th-inning pinch-hit home run (his only home run of the year, I might add) by a fellow from South Carolina named Don Dillard, playing in his last major league season. [Note: It was Dillard's only HR that year, but he only had 19 AB.]

    Here's the box score & play-by-play from B-R. Note that Aaron's 8th-inning AB is recorded as a flyout to the catcher.
    http://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/SLN/SLN196508180.shtml

  23. Addressing Mikeyjax's question @21 re: "how many games [Aaron] may have missed because the game ended up being scrubbed from the schedule because the Braves were too far out for the game to be important enough to be made up."

    In his entire career, Aaron lost just 2 potential games to postponements that were not made up -- one with the Braves in '73, and one with the Brewers in '76, his final year (when he played just 85 games and batted .229 with 10 HRs).

    In 1972, the Braves played 154 games, but I can't tell whether all 8 lost games were due to the strike, or if there was a postponement or two. Every team in MLB played between 154 and 156 games that year.

  24. Thanks John -

    What kind of search did you use to find that?

  25. @24, Mikeyjax -- If you mean, how did I find Tom McMahon's first-person account of that Aaron HR that was reversed, here's how:

    1. I googled "hank aaron + hr out of batter's box" (without the quotes). I checked the first 5 hits or so and learned that the umpire who made the call was Chris Pelekoudas, but I didn't get many other details.

    2. I googled "hank aaron + pelekoudas" (without the quotes). McMahon's account was the 6th hit.

  26. Duh -- simple enough especially in today's google society!

    Thanks again

  27. Lawrence Azrin Says:

    @7... Bill James once had a note in one of his BJHA books about determining when 3,000 hits became a noteworthy milestone. He concluded that it was between 1934, when Sam Rice retired 13 hits short, and 1941, when Paul Waner got publicity for approaching/reaching 3,000 hits. If 3,000 hits meant anything to Rice, I imagine he would have hung around for another season, to get another 13 hits. Also, there was some talk in the early 40s about Al Simmons (2927) sticking around to reach the 3,000-hit mark.

    It was also a big deal in late 1941 when Lefty Grove got win #300 (after six failed attempts), so I imagine this was the time frame when baseball started paying attention to "round-number" career milestones.

  28. @27, Lawrence -- It makes a certain kind of sense that the baseball world started paying attention to "milestones" right around the time that the Hall of Fame opened for business....

  29. Besides the game that @22 John Autin found where Hank Aaron had a homer taken down, there was a very famous game on May 26, 1959 where Hank Aaron of the Milwaukee Braves at the time, caused a team mate, Joe Adcock, to lose a homer in the 13th inning inning of a game when Harvey Haddox of Pittsburgh had a perfect No Hitter through 12 innings.

    BB-Ref.com Box & Recap of the game:

    http://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/MLN/MLN195905260.shtml

    In the bottom of the 13th. inning:
    Felix Mantilla reached on an E-5 to break up the perfecto, but the no hitter was still intact.
    Eddie Matthews bunted Mantilla to 2nd.
    Hank Aaron was Intentionally walked.
    Joe Adcock hit an apparent homer to center. Mantilla scored, but Hank Aaron according to reports thought it was a ground rule double and left the field after touching 2nd. and never touched 3rd. There was a lot of Milwaukee players on the field streeming out of the dugout for Aaron to go back to 3rd.

    Once Adcock touched 3rd. The umpires ruled Adcock out for passing Aaron.
    At first the score was ruled 2-0 but the National League changed it to 1-0 the next day and declared Adcock out for passing Aaron. Aaron had never scored and Adcock was credited with a Double.

    Mainly Hard Luck Harvey Haddox Lost the game, Lost the No Hitter and Lost the Perfect game.
    Hank Aaron cost a team mate a homer.
    Joe Adcock was the team mate who lost the homer.

  30. The Yankees schedule looks kind to Jeter getting his 3,000th hit at home, to the point where the Yankees could sit him a game here or there to assure #3000 happens in the Bronx.

    They play on the road May 27th through June 5th, and then are back for a ten-game home stand through June 16th. They then go on the road for six games, returning for a six-game homestand in the Bronx. So that's 16 of their final 22 games in June are at home. If it takes him to the end of June to get 74 hits, that means he's limping in and will be a very bad sign, yet even at his absolute worst in 2010, during the June, July and August days when he was only hitting .240, he was still averaging a hit per game. Game 74 is on the road, but only two games short of returning to the Stadium. They'd sit him for two games, and more likely will have already sat him for a few games, so chances look slim that he won't get the hit at home. It'll probably happen somewhere in the June 7-16th homestand, which are games 61-70. Good luck trying to figure out the exact game!

  31. Sean Rogers Says:

    As much as I was not a fan of Bowie Kuhn I understand him intervening. It's about respect for the game. The game should not be played any different, regardless of significant milestone, a team clinching or any other event. Above all else, respect The Game.

  32. "With all due respect, breaking Ruth's career HR record cannot be compared even with such enormous milestones as 3,000 hits or 300 wins."

    How are 3,000hits /300 wins "enormous milestones" and surpassing a career total that only one of the greatest players in the game had ever accomplished (and still a milestone that only Ruth and Aaron have achieved, or even come close to, without drugs) not comparably enormous?

    It seems to me that 3,000 bhits and 300 wins are milestones that are far more achievable, therefore less enormous (though only by comparison to the far less achieved 714 home run milestone).

  33. "Can you imagine if a team that had a 10 game lead with 11 games to go played all scrubs in the last game of a road trip in the 2nd place team's city?"

    Sure. In fact, I'm pretty sure I have seen games where at least 5 or 6 position players were not regulars. What's the big deal?

  34. I'm with Bowie on this one and I'm sure the Reds' pennant race rivals appreciated the decision not to allow the Braves to field their second best team, even for just a couple of games.

    In the big picture BK was a fan's commissioner. He wanted people to believe that baseball had an obligation to the fans who had traditionally made the game grow to greatness. That more than anything, explains many of his best known actions (Bouton, Aaron, the Finley fire sale). He was not perfect. He could have stood up to the TV networks more. The inflation of players' salaries has hurt the game's future more than anything else, but the influence of TV on the postseason schedule is a close second.

  35. Frank @32 -- I think you got my intention backwards; maybe I didn't word it quite right. I meant that Aaron breaking Ruth's record was far more historic than any player reaching 3,000 hits or 300 wins. In this, we seem to agree.

  36. @34 -- And what did Kuhn ever do to halt the influence of TV on the postseason schedule? He's the boob who sat in the stands without a coat during a frigid night game in the World Series, as if that would somehow convince people that it wasn't cold.

    In fact, what positive actions of Kuhn can you cite, period?

    Blocking Finley's attempted sale of star players was short-sighted and probably vindictive towards Finley, who was a thorn in Kuhn's side. How was his ruling "in the best interest of baseball"? Finley was going to lose those players to free agency and get nothing in return; at least the sale would have helped him start the rebuilding process. Not only was Kuhn going against ample historic precedent -- ever heard of Babe Ruth, or of Connie Mack's "fire sale" of stars from his two dynasties? -- but subsequent history has also gone against Kuhn; we now have regular "fire sales" involving not only the trading of stars for prospects, but the releasing (or trading at a discount) of players whose guaranteed contracts have become onerous to their teams.

    Finley was hard to like, so it's no surprise that his ideas didn't get much of a hearing from the hidebound clique of baseball management. But he was prescient in his thinking on how the owners' negotiating of limits on free agency (6 years' service, etc.) would backfire by driving up the price for a limited talent supply. Finley argued that they should all be free agents, every year.

    By the way, every major prediction about the impact of free agency has been proven wrong, conclusively. It has not reduced the number of stars who spend their entire careers with one team; it has not significantly eroded fan loyalty to their home team; it has obviously not reduced the number of cities able to support a major league team. It has not even driven up ticket prices. If ticket prices are somewhat higher than they were in the early '70s (and they are not as much higher, in inflation-adjusted dollars, as some people think), that is mainly because the owners realized there was a market for higher-priced tickets -- as is true of almost every form of live entertainment.

    Kuhn spent his entire term fighting a rear-guard action against inevitable changes. Maybe it was not easy to foresee how the game would prosper despite the upheaval of free agency; but it's undeniable that Kuhn's pinched vision of the future provided no leadership.