Posted by Neil Paine on February 2, 2011
B-R reader Mark writes in with this estimate of which specific game Derek Jeter will notch hit #3,000 in:
"When will Jeter get his 74th hit in 2011? For any Yankees season subscriber, this is a very important question to figure out before selling unwanted 2011 games.
- Based on career H/G average (1.27) , game #58 on 6/3 (assumes he plays every game in 2011)
- Based on historical record of his 74th hit every season: game 60 or 65 (6/5 or 6/11) depending on whether you consider historical Team G#s or Player G#s of each year's H# 74.
The first was simple math based on career stats.
The second was culled from b-r's Game Logs, copied as CSV into Excel, and derived from there by adding a cumulative H column for each season to the game records."
Nice to see someone using the site tools for their own mini-research projects. Of course, I would add that it's probably unrealistic to expect Jeter to hit at his career norms next season, so if we use last year's rates we get:
- Game #65 of the season based on hits per game
- Game #56 or 57 of the season based on last season's game logs
Based on this extremely simple analysis, you should probably expect Jeter's 3000th hit sometime in the first 2 weeks of June.