Comments on: Does the W-L record matter for closers? http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/archives/9664 This and that about baseball stats. Tue, 16 Jul 2013 17:01:55 +0000 hourly 1 https://wordpress.org/?v=4.6 By: Bob M. http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/archives/9664/comment-page-1#comment-82967 Tue, 18 Jan 2011 01:30:59 +0000 http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/?p=9664#comment-82967 Adjusted ERA and save percentage, taken into consideration the skill level of the fielders behind the pitcher should only matter. W-L record is not accurate because that is a team accomplishment.

]]>
By: Highest WPA in a blown save » Baseball-Reference Blog » Blog Archive http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/archives/9664/comment-page-1#comment-82562 Sat, 15 Jan 2011 13:44:31 +0000 http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/?p=9664#comment-82562 [...] Autin recently pointed out that Mariano Rivera once earned 0.307 Win Probability Added for his blown save appearance in game 5 [...]

]]>
By: John Autin http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/archives/9664/comment-page-1#comment-82515 Sat, 15 Jan 2011 05:30:14 +0000 http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/?p=9664#comment-82515 P.S. to #82 -- In that "blown save" charged to Mariano Rivera in game 5 of the 2004 ALCS, his WPA for the game was positive 0.307 -- higher than 12 of the 13 other pitchers who appeared in that game. (Tim Wakefield, who earned the extra-inning win with 3 scoreless innings, had a 0.468 WPA.)

]]>
By: Dave V. http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/archives/9664/comment-page-1#comment-82514 Sat, 15 Jan 2011 05:30:08 +0000 http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/?p=9664#comment-82514 @82 John Autin - that Red Sox-Yanks game has always stuck out in my mind as well. It really irritates me when some people say Rivera choked by blowing two games in a row there. Anyone who knows anything knows that Tom Gordon blew that game.

]]>
By: John Autin http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/archives/9664/comment-page-1#comment-82512 Sat, 15 Jan 2011 05:22:06 +0000 http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/?p=9664#comment-82512 I normally wouldn't cite a single game to make the point that not all "blown saves" are equally bad, but this one has always stuck in my mind so here it is -- one of the four blown saves charged to Mariano Rivera's postseason account (out of 46 tries):

-- 2004 ALCS, game 5: Yankees open the 8th with a 4-2 lead, but Ortiz cuts it to 1 run with a leadoff HR against Gordon; a walk and a single put runners on the corners with nobody out. And here comes Mariano! All he has to do to earn a save is (a) retire the side in the 8th without letting that runner score from 3rd, and (b) pitch a 2nd full inning ... after going 2 IP the night before. He couldn't do it; Varitek hit a sac fly to plate the tying run.

In fact, as many of you know, all four of Mariano's postseason blown saves featured both a 1-run lead and Rivera entering the game in the 8th inning with 0 or 1 out.

]]>
By: Kingturtle http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/archives/9664/comment-page-1#comment-82497 Sat, 15 Jan 2011 03:06:39 +0000 http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/?p=9664#comment-82497 wins do not have solid meaning for relievers. a reliever could lose a lead and then win the game. but just about every loss a reliever earns is his, and his alone.

]]>
By: Dvd Avins http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/archives/9664/comment-page-1#comment-82483 Sat, 15 Jan 2011 00:49:26 +0000 http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/?p=9664#comment-82483 If all managers used their closers the same way and if closers spent their whole relieving career in that role, then save percentage would be a very important indicator, as some folks above are saying it is. But in the world as it exists, I doubt it's has an acceptable signal/noise ratio.

]]>
By: birtelcom http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/archives/9664/comment-page-1#comment-82478 Sat, 15 Jan 2011 00:01:30 +0000 http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/?p=9664#comment-82478 DavidJ: I'd even go further than arguing that WPA is good for telling the story of the game or season and that it is a good, objective measure (not the only one, but an important one) of the performance by relievers of their tasks. Such a large percentage of the role of a relief pitcher (in contrast to starting pitchers and everyday players) is caught up in the game context of his performance that WPA seems like one of the best ways to truly measure their value. Starting pitchers and everyday players engage in large numbers of plate appearances a season in a wide variety of game contexts, so WPA is less important in measuring their performance. but relief pitchers take on a relatively small number of PAs a season and a lot of their value depends on their level of success in high leverage situations.

]]>
By: DavidJ http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/archives/9664/comment-page-1#comment-82469 Fri, 14 Jan 2011 23:23:45 +0000 http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/?p=9664#comment-82469 #68 Birtelcom:

Ah, ok, I see what you're saying. Sorry I misread your post. And I agree: WPA is a nice stat for telling the "story" of a game (or even a season)--really, it's a great measure of how well a pitcher "pitched to the score"--but you're right that it's not a great tool for comparing starters with relievers, in that it doesn't account for the extra value that starters provide in their ability to pitch a lot of innings.

]]>
By: Johnny Twisto http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/archives/9664/comment-page-1#comment-82406 Fri, 14 Jan 2011 17:01:44 +0000 http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/?p=9664#comment-82406 Sorry for being unclear. I posted 14 after seeing Bark's 7: People just so cavalierly say "W-L is irrelevant". It cracks me up. I guess a lot of my posts here are attempts to bridge the so-called divide between saber-inclined fans and traditionalists, either by explaining what the new stats mean and measure, or showing how the sides are not necessarily so far apart. I thought it was great on that other thread how Bark seemed to have his mind blown by the concept of BABIP and wanted to read more about it. But then he sees everyone writing here that "wins and losses don't matter" and it seems like the kind of thing which will drive him back away. So I was crudely trying to say that of course they matter, on the team level. And since team wins and losses are credited to individual pitchers, the pitcher's record matters, in the sense that it reflects how well the team has played. Is it an important component in evaluating how well the pitcher himself has performed? No, especially for relievers.

]]>