Comments on: My head just exploded… http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/archives/9063 This and that about baseball stats. Tue, 16 Jul 2013 17:01:55 +0000 hourly 1 https://wordpress.org/?v=4.6 By: Cabriael http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/archives/9063/comment-page-2#comment-72129 Wed, 17 Nov 2010 07:03:06 +0000 http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/?p=9063#comment-72129 Jeter can't be compared with your beloved stupid umpires, who should be banned just like Joe Jackson.

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By: Johnny Twisto http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/archives/9063/comment-page-2#comment-71745 Mon, 15 Nov 2010 19:25:35 +0000 http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/?p=9063#comment-71745 Maddux --he was rather un-clutch in the playoffs.

But he had a stretch of postseason starts in which he pitched more IP than Duque did in his whole career, with a lower ERA. Why don't those count, simply because he didn't pitch as well before and after that? You are assuming if Duque had another 100 postseason IP he would have pitched just as well as he did in his first 100. There's no way to prove that, because it will never happen, but I think it's extraordinarily unlikely. Cliff Lee was "unbeatable" in the postseason, until he lost twice in a row.

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By: Matt Y http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/archives/9063/comment-page-2#comment-71447 Sat, 13 Nov 2010 23:20:12 +0000 http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/?p=9063#comment-71447 With that said Alicia, you are selling the complex stats waaaay tooooo short. They are indeed more "true" than perception, however, complex stats fall waaay flat when they're weighed on tooooo heavily.....as some like to do to an absofreakinlutely ridiculous level --so, your points are not lost on me. There is indeed more to the game than the complex stats, but you are kidding yourself if you don't think they have tremendous value. Jeter clearly was a joke of a choice for GG, and perception or complex stats support that.

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By: Matt Y http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/archives/9063/comment-page-2#comment-71443 Sat, 13 Nov 2010 22:56:33 +0000 http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/?p=9063#comment-71443 Point taken JT, but I'd take El Duque over Maddux in a Game 7. Clutch does actually exist, and El Duque had pixie dust (or a huge heart given his life experiences). Conclusion, El Duque was clutch and would find a way to beat Maddux in a Game 7. It be 1-1 in the 7th and Maddux would 9 out of 10 times be the one to give up homer to lose 2-1. It's the way it was for Maddux --he was rather un-clutch in the playoffs. That's Context that's lost with complex stats!...and it's context that matters!!!!!!!

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By: Johnny Twisto http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/archives/9063/comment-page-2#comment-71336 Sat, 13 Nov 2010 04:07:58 +0000 http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/?p=9063#comment-71336 I quite clearly said El Duque did what he did and it matters.

"El Duque was better in the playoffs" is NOT the same as saying you would take him over Maddux for this hypothetical game 7. I know the Maddux/Duque argument was not yours originally, but you are shifting what I was arguing against. I agree, Duque was better in the playoffs. I don't interpret that to mean he had special playoff pixie dust and Maddux didn't.

"Hasn't" is not the same as "can't."

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By: Matt Y http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/archives/9063/comment-page-2#comment-71321 Sat, 13 Nov 2010 01:52:48 +0000 http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/?p=9063#comment-71321 ....and, save the argument about sample size. It might be a small sample size, but the games actually mean the most....and, to act like playoffs don't matter is just straight-up foolish and will be seen no differently until sabermetricians actually start using some type of pWAR...and, also save the argument about it not mattering for most players. Just do it, it matters today, especially with the expanded playoff format.

Yes, any season I'd take Maddux, perhaps even in a few playoff games, but El Duque was better in the playoffs.

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By: Matt Y http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/archives/9063/comment-page-2#comment-71320 Sat, 13 Nov 2010 01:47:30 +0000 http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/?p=9063#comment-71320 And lets boil the context out the game some more. Sorry, Maddux was great and going to the Hall, El Duque was a better playoff pitcher though. Leave it at that.

El Duque: 9-3 2.55 3 WS championships (107IP)

Greg Maddux: 11-14 3.27 1 WS championships (197 IP)

Sorry, leave it alone, El Duque was actually better in the playoffs. Enough said.

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By: John DiFool http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/archives/9063/comment-page-2#comment-71053 Fri, 12 Nov 2010 01:35:21 +0000 http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/?p=9063#comment-71053 "I'll take professional observation any day over some nonsense about Chances, Assists and Putouts."

Professional observers would undoubtedly _agree_ with the stats.

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By: Alicia http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/archives/9063/comment-page-2#comment-71016 Thu, 11 Nov 2010 22:52:13 +0000 http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/?p=9063#comment-71016 ...and all these silly artificial statistics are excellent predictors of performance. Until they aren't.

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By: Johnny Twisto http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/archives/9063/comment-page-2#comment-70996 Thu, 11 Nov 2010 20:47:56 +0000 http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/?p=9063#comment-70996 El Duque had all of 14 postseason starts. Greg Maddux had a stretch of 19 games, 17 starts from 1995-1999 when he put up an ERA of 1.89. If he had been on worse teams before and after that and those games comprised the entirety of his postseason career, you'd be talking about him as the guy with "icewater" in his veins. It's ridiculous. Remember when Josh Beckett was one of the all-time great postseason pitchers, until he wasn't? Remember when Cliff Lee couldn't be beaten in October, until he was? Or when A-Rod was a big choker, until he destroyed all pitchers in his path last year? Now you probably pick out Matt Cain as the guy with that special something which raises him to another level in the playoffs (but wait, look at his regular season W-L records, maybe he doesn't know how to win.....)

To say that Duque had the special something to raise his game in the postseason, and Jimmy Rollins doesn't, is foolish. All you know is what happened. You have no idea what is inside these players, and unless you do, projecting their postseason play to differ from their overall performance is a rather risky proposition. All we know is that El Duque, in sample of 100 IP, did pitch extremely well. It happened and he deserves to be remembered for that, but I don't assume that he would perform any better than the pretty good pitcher he was in some additional, hypothetical start. The bigger the sample, the more these guys will revert to their career norms.

The question would also depend on what Maddux and what Duque you're talking about. I'd take the Maddux of 1994-5 over pretty much anyone at any time -- game 7, game 1, opening day, whatever.

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