Comments on: SH with a 3-0 Count http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/archives/9028 This and that about baseball stats. Tue, 16 Jul 2013 17:01:55 +0000 hourly 1 https://wordpress.org/?v=4.6 By: Tmckelv http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/archives/9028/comment-page-1#comment-96018 Mon, 21 Feb 2011 20:14:20 +0000 http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/?p=9028#comment-96018 I was also surprised at only one guy being a pitcher.

But I was more surprised that in 4 of the instances the situation was a man on 1st only or men on 1st and 2nd (since a walk would have given the desired effect with another base runner plus no additional outs). Obviously the only job these guys (via manager's direction) was to advance the runner and they used the assumption is that the 3-0 pitch would be the best pitch they would see (to bunt). A "bunting sneak attack", as it were.

There have been discussions on this board about whether a sac bunt is EVER a good play (I remember it being discussed after Aubry Huff's sac bunt in the last game of the WS, which I thought was the best bunt I had ever seen given the circumstances and it was pointed out to me that the WPA was still negative), so characterizing any of these individual bunts as "a good play" is very unlikely.

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By: DoubleDiamond http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/archives/9028/comment-page-1#comment-96007 Mon, 21 Feb 2011 18:18:23 +0000 http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/?p=9028#comment-96007 @10, @1 - The first thing I did was to look to see how many of these games took part in NL ball parks, since I figured that some of these guys would be pitchers. I found three. One name, Jerry Hairston (the only one in an interleague game), was familiar to me as a non-pitcher. I then looked up Josh Fogg and Omar Quintanilla to see if either one was/is a pitcher. It turns out that Fogg was. So, yes, I was suprised to find that only one was/is a pitcher.

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By: ken http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/archives/9028/comment-page-1#comment-95925 Mon, 21 Feb 2011 05:04:39 +0000 http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/?p=9028#comment-95925 Pitchers rarely work the count to 3-0! 😉

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By: John Autin http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/archives/9028/comment-page-1#comment-95920 Mon, 21 Feb 2011 04:12:25 +0000 http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/?p=9028#comment-95920 One more thing -- is anyone else here surprised that only 1 of the 6 players listed above is a pitcher?

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By: John Autin http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/archives/9028/comment-page-1#comment-95918 Mon, 21 Feb 2011 04:09:34 +0000 http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/?p=9028#comment-95918 Just following through ... The '90s also had 6 sac bunts known to have come on a 3-0 count. The count is known for the vast majority of the sac bunts of the '90s.

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By: John Autin http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/archives/9028/comment-page-1#comment-95917 Mon, 21 Feb 2011 04:06:29 +0000 http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/?p=9028#comment-95917 @2 / @4 -- I, too, would have guessed that a 3-0 sac bunt was at least somewhat more common in, say, the '80s.

But I just did a search with the Event Finder for 1980-89. Now, pitch-count data are spotty, even for such relatively recent years. Of the 15,646 sac bunts in that decade, the count is known for only 3,178 of them.

But of those 3,178 for which the count is known, not a single one occurred on a 3-0 count.

P.S. On a tangent, I was surprised to find that sac bunts in the '80s were almost twice as frequent when the team was ahead as when they were behind. And there were also more sac bunts when the team was ahead than when they were tied.

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By: John Autin http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/archives/9028/comment-page-1#comment-95916 Mon, 21 Feb 2011 03:53:40 +0000 http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/?p=9028#comment-95916 I think bunting there was bad strategy -- not because of the 3-0 count, but because of the game situation.

In the 9th inning, a 1-run strategy might be appropriate if you are either tied or down by 1 run. Playing for 1 run when you're ahead is poor percentage ball.

I'm speculating, but I have a feeling that Girardi's decision was colored by the fact that Mariano had pitched 2 full innings the day before, in a 13-inning loss. My guess is that with Girardi was trying to keep Mariano out of this game, and would have felt comfortable giving the 9th-inning save chance to someone else if he could bump the lead from 1 to 2 runs.

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By: Joe Garrison http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/archives/9028/comment-page-1#comment-95872 Sun, 20 Feb 2011 21:23:20 +0000 http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/?p=9028#comment-95872 And we have yet another sign that we are all getting a little anxious for the new season to start!

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By: John H. http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/archives/9028/comment-page-1#comment-95867 Sun, 20 Feb 2011 20:14:49 +0000 http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/?p=9028#comment-95867 Wow, that Cervelli bunt was incredibly stupid. But I saw something once at a college softball game that was worse. The score was tied in the 7th inning with the home team batting. The bases were loaded, no outs, and the batter had a 3-0 count. The batter was given the squeeze bunt sign and she popped it up into a double play! A walk would have driven in a run and put them ahead!

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By: Xander http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/archives/9028/comment-page-1#comment-95860 Sun, 20 Feb 2011 19:35:30 +0000 http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/?p=9028#comment-95860 I watched that game.
What is absolutely maddening about it is that Cervelii, who is not a great hitter, had reached base safely EIGHT CONSECUTIVE TIMES before that PA. Six walks and two singles. And he is instructed to make an out, on a 3-0 count.

Oh, and the Yanx dont score.
Oh, and Mariano blows the save, giving up the winning run on a hit by pitch.

I think the terrorists won on this past 9.11

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