Comments on: Great 1-2-3 Rotation Combos In a Best-of-7 Series http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/archives/8682 This and that about baseball stats. Tue, 16 Jul 2013 17:01:55 +0000 hourly 1 https://wordpress.org/?v=4.6 By: Georgie Sweney http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/archives/8682/comment-page-1#comment-62019 Wed, 20 Oct 2010 08:47:37 +0000 http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/?p=8682#comment-62019 your blog is very good!!! registry first aid keythanks i love your !!!

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By: Mike Felber http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/archives/8682/comment-page-1#comment-60916 Fri, 15 Oct 2010 06:09:56 +0000 http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/?p=8682#comment-60916 I agree Zachary. Though the question of whether the #3 pitcher is disproportionately important, or taking the top 2 is more predictive remains. regardless, the conventional wisdom tends to way more towards good pitching being decisive Alex. I do not see why that should be true, EXCEPT in a short series when you can pitch your best guys more often than the regular season-you cannot do so with position players.

To prove this true, we could take teams with nearly = overall strength, but reversed in offense & defensive value. Or just about = overall, but 1 team markedly better in pitching. The latter team should win somewhat more often.

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By: Alex Remington http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/archives/8682/comment-page-1#comment-60805 Thu, 14 Oct 2010 19:35:06 +0000 http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/?p=8682#comment-60805 Good pitching beats good hitting. And vice versa.

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By: DoubleDiamond http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/archives/8682/comment-page-1#comment-60568 Thu, 14 Oct 2010 01:50:47 +0000 http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/?p=8682#comment-60568 1997. I was trying to remember who the Braves faced in that year's World Series. And then I remembered playing around with a potential newspaper headline summarizing the NLCS:

Atlanta gave them all their aces, but all they heard was "Go Fish!"

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By: Zachary http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/archives/8682/comment-page-1#comment-60504 Wed, 13 Oct 2010 21:39:26 +0000 http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/?p=8682#comment-60504 I think you can generalize regular season performance as indicative of post-season performance. Individual circumstances may change the individual odds, but I think that the overrate/underrate situations will even out over the long run and the generalization works for the most part.

Predictions of this kind can't be exact, and they should be modified on a case-by-case basis. But to do that you need a baseline, and the WAR combo is a perfectly reasonable one to start with.

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By: BSK http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/archives/8682/comment-page-1#comment-60480 Wed, 13 Oct 2010 20:24:04 +0000 http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/?p=8682#comment-60480 JayT and JT-

That is the point I was getting at in my post. For the season, Sanchez and Lincecum brought similar value. But looking at what they are likely to contribute at this point, differences emerge. Obviously, we can go too far with this and say, "Well, hey, I know Pedro Martinez didn't pitch this year, but I mean, you want to compare Phil Hughes to him???" But, we might want to find a way to get a better sense of where pitchers are at this point than just looking at them over the previous 6 months. I don't know that going back historically is necessarily the best bet, unless there is a specific reason to believe that this regular season was a major abberation but that the post-season won't be. Rather, perhaps we use some sort of weighted WAR, putting more stock into more recent performances? I don't necessarily know the best way to do this, but I'm sure there are both simple and complex ways that might correct for issues such as this.

Of course, there is also the possibility that pitchers with lesser reputations are just as good, if not better, than those with greater reputations. So we shouldn't ALWAYS assume that regular season WAR tells us nothing about the postseason. We just need to look at each case individually and determine whether a guy's seasonal production is the best tool to predict his post-season performance.

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By: JayT http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/archives/8682/comment-page-1#comment-60476 Wed, 13 Oct 2010 20:11:42 +0000 http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/?p=8682#comment-60476 @Johnny: The flaw is that Lincecum's "true" level of talent (ie, what he could bring to any given game) isn't well represented by one season's worth or WAR data, and even moreso, his WAR was dragged down by two bad months this season. In fact, in the last three seasons, he's only had three months with an over 4 ERA.

So while Sanchez might have been about as good as Lincecum this season on the whole, Lincecum is still the better bet to pitch one great game when you look at his whole body of work.

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By: Johnny Twisto http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/archives/8682/comment-page-1#comment-60443 Wed, 13 Oct 2010 18:30:56 +0000 http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/?p=8682#comment-60443 What's the glaring flaw? You hardly need WAR to show you that this season Sanchez was about as good as Lincecum.

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By: Jason http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/archives/8682/comment-page-1#comment-60440 Wed, 13 Oct 2010 18:17:05 +0000 http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/?p=8682#comment-60440 I do see a glaring flaw with this, and that's that while Jonathan Sanchez is a good pitcher, he's by no means the same pitcher as Tim Lincecum, as WAR would suggest.

"The Freak" is much more on par with Roy Halladay (or at the very least Cole Hamels) than he is with Sanchez.

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By: WilsonC http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/archives/8682/comment-page-1#comment-60437 Wed, 13 Oct 2010 18:04:52 +0000 http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/?p=8682#comment-60437 Defense could be a little bit of a confounding factor for something like this.

While it makes sense to try and factor out defense when directly comparing pitchers, for the purpose of this type of study, it would make sense to look at how a rotation does including the defense played behind it.

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