Comments on: Impactful Midseason Managerial Changes http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/archives/8416 This and that about baseball stats. Tue, 16 Jul 2013 17:01:55 +0000 hourly 1 https://wordpress.org/?v=4.6 By: Doug B http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/archives/8416/comment-page-1#comment-54560 Thu, 30 Sep 2010 17:29:00 +0000 http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/?p=8416#comment-54560 percentages seem a little mis-leading for the smaller samples. I probably would have gone with games above/below .500

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By: BCK http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/archives/8416/comment-page-1#comment-54151 Wed, 29 Sep 2010 08:50:18 +0000 http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/?p=8416#comment-54151 Sorry, let me qualify my last statement about O'Neill...

I shoudl have said he was 10th among managers who managed at least 1000 games after 1900.

The "exclusively" qualifier was misleading, as it eliminated McGraw and Clarke, both of whom managed mostly in the 1900's, but who I had ruled out by virtue of a couple years of managing pre-1900.

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By: BCK http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/archives/8416/comment-page-1#comment-54150 Wed, 29 Sep 2010 08:46:31 +0000 http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/?p=8416#comment-54150 The master of the midseason turnaround?

Steve O'Neill

Check this out:

1935 Indians
Under Walter Johnson: 46-48 (.489)
Under Steve O'Neill: 36-23 (.610)
Difference: +.121

1950 Red Sox
Under Joe McCarthy: 31-28 (.525)
Under Steve O'Neill: 63-32 (.663)
Difference: +.138

1952 Phillies
Under Eddie Sawyer: 28-35 (.444)
Under Steve O'Neill: 59-32 (.648)
Difference: +.204

Total, 3 teams
Under other managers: 105-111 (.486)
Under O'Neill: 158-87 (.645)
Difference: +.159

Three teams, three spectacular improvements. And all three would fall under the revised guidelines of 50 games in both directions (before and after the change). This guy was, for all intents and purposes, a midseason miracle worker.

For those of you who don't know, O'Neill is one of only 2 managers to manage in at least 5 (even partial)seasons and never have a losing record. The other is McCarthy. He won the World Series with the 1945 Tigers, but never made the postseason other than that in 14 seasons total of managing (he came in 2nd with the Tigers in '44, '46, and '47). His overall winning percentage of .559 is 15th among skippers who managed at least 1000 games in the majors and 8th among those who managed 1000 games exclusively after the 1900.

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By: MikeD http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/archives/8416/comment-page-1#comment-54132 Wed, 29 Sep 2010 07:26:53 +0000 http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/?p=8416#comment-54132 @20, Hubert -- If you are going to up the stakes to Managers fired and Manager hired need min 50 games all 10 fail. Does this mean the O's make the WS by default.
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That's right. They all fail, except for Showalter. What we'd get, though, if we ran a new list with 50-game minimums is an entirely new list, which would have less spectacular percentage swings, but one that I think would have a bit more meaning in determining the impact the new manager has had on the team.

Ummm, no World Series for the O's...yet

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By: Neil L http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/archives/8416/comment-page-1#comment-54084 Wed, 29 Sep 2010 02:27:19 +0000 http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/?p=8416#comment-54084 @18
Thomas, good post about the Jays' record against the O's in the pre-Showalter era vs. currently. Buck has definitely injected something tangible into an under-preforming Orioles roster this year. Point conceded.
@23 @24
BCK, thanks for the searches. It will take me a while to digest the significance of the info you've uncovered.
@26
But, Jim, you would have to concede that Showalter's short-term impact on the Orioles is an exception!

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By: Jim McLennan http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/archives/8416/comment-page-1#comment-54011 Tue, 28 Sep 2010 21:03:18 +0000 http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/?p=8416#comment-54011 Curiously, the same day as this piece, I did a report on mid-season managerial changes over the past decade, looking at the records of a team the season before the change, before and after the switch, and the season after.

In the season prior to a firing, the 34 examples had an average W% of .480. That dropped to .441 before the change, and improved only fractionally to .457 afterward. The year beyond that, it improved, but again only slightly, to .465. It all seems more evidence that a manager generally has very little impact on a team's results.

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By: Tuesday Links (28 Sep 10) – Ducksnorts http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/archives/8416/comment-page-1#comment-53992 Tue, 28 Sep 2010 19:51:47 +0000 http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/?p=8416#comment-53992 [...] Impactful Midseason Managerial Changes (Baseball Reference). Check out Jack McKeon and the ‘88 Padres. [...]

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By: BCK http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/archives/8416/comment-page-1#comment-53975 Tue, 28 Sep 2010 18:52:10 +0000 http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/?p=8416#comment-53975 OK, here are the 10 worst instances of teams that got significantly worse after changing managers midseason (not including changes in the first or last 20 games):

#1: 1902 Giants
Under Horace Fogel: 18-23 (.439)
Under Heine Smith (who was subsequently replaced): 5-27 (.156)
Difference: -.283

#2: 1978 Athletics
Under Bobby Winkles: 24-15 (.615)
Under Jack McKeon: 45-78 (.366)
Difference: -.249

#3: 1937 Reds
Under Chuck Dressen: 51-78 (.395)
Under Bobby Wallace: 5-20 (.200)
Difference: -.195

#4: 1987 Cubs
Under Gene Michael: 68-68 (.500)
Under Frank Lucchesi: 8-17 (.320)
Difference: -.180

#5: 1969 Athletics
Under Alvin Dark: 52-69 (.4298)
Under Luke Appling: 10-30 (.250)
Difference: -.1798

#6: 1902 Orioles
Under John McGraw: 26-31 (.456)
Under Wilbert Robinson: 24-57 (.296)
Difference: -.160

#7: 2001 Red Sox
Under Jimy Williams: 65-53 (.551)
Under Joe Kerrigan: 17-26 (.395)
Difference: -.156

#8: 1908 Highlanders
Under Clark Griffith: 24-32 (.429)
Under Kid Elberfeld: 27-71 (.276)
Difference: -.153

#9: 1966 Indians
Under Birdie Tebbetts: 66-57 (.537)
Under George Strickland: 15-24 (.385)
Difference: -.152

#10: 1977 Athletics
Under Jack McKeon: 26-27 (.491)
Under Bobby Winkles: 37-71 (.342)
Difference: -.149

I love that the 1977 A's went from average under McKeon to terrible under Winkles, but kept Winkles as manager the next season. They were doing quite well under Winkles in '78, but Charlie Finley (even crazier than normal at the end of his tenure) went back to McKeon, and the team tanked again.

I found only 8 other instances in which a team was at least .100 in winning percentage worse under a midseason managerial replacement:

1909 Naps
1948 Phillies
1971 Indians
1975 Braves
1981 Yankees
1988 Yankees
1996 Angels
2004 D-backs

Also, it's worth mentioning 2 other teams, although the situations were slightly different.

1988 Reds - Pete Rose was suspended 30 days for pushing Dave Pallone, and the Reds were -0.116 under his replacement, Tommy Helms

1999 Astros - Larry Dierker missed 4 weeks after brain surgery, and the Astros were -0.149 under his replacement, Matt Galante

I haven't run all the numbers yet to see whether a midseason change is, on average, a good or bad move. But in general, it looks like most midseason managerial changes have little impact one way or the other. You can't usually get a leopard to change its spots.

But there are definitely more examples of teams improving significantly than of teams regressing significantly, which is the allure. If you haven't got anything to lose, it's worth a shot.

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By: BCK http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/archives/8416/comment-page-1#comment-53920 Tue, 28 Sep 2010 15:17:20 +0000 http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/?p=8416#comment-53920 Here are their performances the following season:

1989 Blue Jays
Total: 89-73 (.549)
Next year: 86-76 (.531), 2nd place (of 7)
Next year improvement: -.018

1940 Cardinals
Total: 84-69 (.549)
Next year: 97-56 (.634), 2nd place (of 8)
Next year improvement: +.085

1912 Indians
Total: 75-78 (.490)
Next year: 86-66 (.566), 3rd place (of 8)
Next year improvement: +.076

1999 Angels
Total: 70-92 (.432)
Next year: 82-80 (.506), 3rd place (of 4)
Next year improvement: +.074

2009 Rockies
Total: 92-70 (.568)
Next year (so far): 83-73 (.532), 3rd place (of 5)
Next year improvement (so far): -.036

1988 Padres
Total: 83-78 (.516)
Next year: 89-73 (.549), 2nd place (of 6)
Next year improvement: +.033

1925 Cardinals
Total: 77-76 (.503)
Next year: 89-65 (.568), 1st place (of 8), won WS
Next year improvement: +.065

1980 Twins
Total: 77-84 (.478)
Next year: 41-68 (.376), 7th place (of 7)
Next year improvement: -.102

2002 Rockies
Total: 73-89 (.451)
Next year: 74-88 (.457), 4th place (of 5)
Next year improvement: +.006

1969 Angels
Total: 71-89 (.444)
Next year: 86-76 (.531), 3rd place (of 6)
Next year improvement: +.087

Among this small sample size, there's an average improvement of about 0.027 to the winning percentage from one year to the next.

But I think what's more relevant in such a small sample size is that among those teams that improved (7 of the 10), 5 of the 7 improved between 0.065 and 0.087.

It wouldn't surprise me in the slightest to see the Orioles improve this much next season, from approximately 0.400 in 2010 (about 65 wins) to about 0.480 in 2011 (about 78 wins). Especially when you consider that most people were expecting the Oriole sto win about 75-77 games before this season, it seems reasonable for them to finally live up to that.

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By: eorns http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/archives/8416/comment-page-1#comment-53908 Tue, 28 Sep 2010 14:25:07 +0000 http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/?p=8416#comment-53908 @19 >>With tonight's win, Buck Showalter now has 30 wins in 51 games (30-21/.588). Two more wins, and his team will match the 32 win total over the previous 105 games.

Yes! Assuming they win those two, this must be the record for getting to the same win total. I'd also like to see what these managers did the following year (along with the list of worst records after a change).

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