I checked through the league leaders in rbat (adjusted batting runs) and rfield (total zone runs) and the only times I had to check baserunning was Bonds in 1990 and Pujols in 2007/2008.

The offensive and defensive seasons just don't seem to line up all that well. Especially for Mays. He led the NL in rfield 3 times and rbat 5 times, but never in the same season.

Also, at a quick glance at the league leaders in rfield, Pujols has to be either the only one or one of very few to lead their league as a firstbaseman. Most are outfielders, shortstops, and thirdbaseman. If any one else wants to see if they can find a full-time firstbaseman leading the league in rfield, the league leaders are here-->http://www.baseball-reference.com/leaders/tz_runs_total_tf_leagues.shtml

With runners on the corners and 1 out, an average of 1.243 runs score. Now that's for 1999-2002, and scoring levels are a little lower now. But this game was taking place in COL, where scoring is higher. So I don't know what the "true" run expectancy for that situation is, but it's probably somewhere around 1.2 to 1.3. And that's what WPA is based on. COL has an very good chance of scoring there, and ultimately winning the game. Like I said when I called WPA a "fan's stat," if you're a COL fan watching the game, you're probably already feeling pretty good before the Nelson steal, even though it's still tied. The B-R boxscore says the biggest play for COL was when Tulowitzki led off that inning with a HR, to tie it up. Once they get tied in the bottom of the inning as the home team, they're the favorites to win. Putting runners on adds to that.

Thanks for the nice words Neil.

You've explained how the 0.11 was calculated and why a steal of home appeared to be worth so little. Chris Nelson was probably going to score anyway, although we'll never know. He took matters into his own hands.

But how different the baserunning instincts of his action compared to a Molina coming home on a pass ball, even though both would get the same WPA!

It is based on the difference between the two. The Rockies already had a 75% chance of winning the game before the steal. After the steal, it was 86%. (Obviously these are just estimates, there is no way to know that for certain, but if you could somehow play the game out millions of times from those particular situations, the results would probably be near that.)

Intuitively, doesn't that undervalue the action that Chris Nelson took? A steal of home is totally voluntary, under the player's control and his decision-making. Surely, a steal of home is far more valued in WPA than a steal of second or third! Also it was a tie game in the bottom of the eighth. I'm still a little confused about why a daring strategy like stealing home only gets a WPA of 0.113 for the base runner.

It's all about the situation where it came. As the home team, with runners on the corners, 1 out, the Rockies already had a very good chance to win, prior to the SB. Think about it...if he doesn't run, they still have a couple chances to knock him in. There's probably at least a 25% chance of a hit by the next batter, which will score him. A medium flyball will score him.

If COL was down by a run, there were two outs, and Nelson was the only runner on, the WPA for the steal would probably be quite a bit higher. If they were winning by 10, they'd already have a ~99% chance of winning, so the WPA for a steal there would be miniscule.

Anyway, WPA doesn't judge daringness, only the impact on the game. If he scored on passed ball, it's the same impact. But as fans, we can appreciate the difference.

Here's the clip: http://mlb.mlb.com/video/play.jsp?content_id=11901015

Nelson told at least one reporter that the play may have been a busted squeeze, so he may not have *wanted* to take as much of a risk as it looked like he did. But give credit where it's due: he stole that bag like Rod Carew.

Rk Player RBI G Age PA AB R H 2B 3B HR BB IBB SO HBP BA OBP SLG OPS
1 Albert Pujols 1211 1536 21-30 6688 5662 1169 1878 420 15 403 894 232 635 70 .332 .425 .625 1.050
2 Alex Rodriguez 1211 1492 25-34 6593 5617 1115 1683 278 16 416 796 78 1201 121 .300 .394 .577 .971

Nearly identical games, at bats, runs, triples, homers. All of Pujols slash stats are significantly better. But check out Al's lead in doubles and especially intentional walks! Think A-Rod had some better lineups around him? Also, Bonds had 249 IBBs from '02-'04.

Ranks 3-7 on this leader board are between 1041 and 1009 RsBI (Ortiz, Manny, Vlad, Berkman, and Carlos Lee).

It's more of a knock on RBI than a knock on group #2. I agree with you there were some very good hitters in that mix.

It's just if it's supposed to be such an important stat, then why have so few of the greatest offensive players of all time actually led the league in RBI? But on the other hand Willie Mays led the league in ops+ 6 times. Here's a list to compare:

Mays: RBI Titles: 0
Ops+ Titles: 6

Barry Bonds: RBI Titles: 1
Ops+ Titles: 9

Mel Ott: RBI Titles: 1
Ops+ Titles: 5

Mickey Mantle: RBI Titles: 1
Ops+ Titles: 9

Stan Musial: RBI Titles: 2
Ops+ Titles: 6

Frank Robinson: RBI Titles: 1
Ops+ Titles: 4

Yaz: Rbi Titles: 1
Ops+ Titles: 4

George Brett: RBI Titles: 0
Ops+ Titles: 3

Albert Pujols: RBI Titles: 0
Ops+ Titles: 3