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	<title>Comments on: The large discrepancy in Jose Mesa&#8217;s HOF Monitor and HOF Standards</title>
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	<link>http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/archives/8127</link>
	<description>This and that about baseball stats.</description>
	<lastBuildDate>Fri, 11 Nov 2011 16:57:02 +0000</lastBuildDate>
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		<title>By: T</title>
		<link>http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/archives/8127/comment-page-1#comment-46993</link>
		<dc:creator>T</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 09 Sep 2010 09:15:52 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/?p=8127#comment-46993</guid>
		<description>Lee Smith has a 122 point discrepancy.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Lee Smith has a 122 point discrepancy.</p>
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		<title>By: jimmy vac</title>
		<link>http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/archives/8127/comment-page-1#comment-46917</link>
		<dc:creator>jimmy vac</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 09 Sep 2010 01:44:00 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/?p=8127#comment-46917</guid>
		<description>Pitching is backwards today.When you have get the most important out of a game, you know call in a guy who is not good enough to start or close.. Totally ridiculous... maybe the hold is the answer or a stat that gives the total amount of runners on base verus the amount that scores... the save rule is riciculous. As a Met fan , I hate to say it but RIvera is probably the best ever due to longevity and consistency .. but having said that he nver ptiched 90 games or 130 innings.. one year Mike Marshall pithced in 108 games and over 200 innings and was credited with only about 30 saves... Rivera like many of today&#039;s closers, are not as effective when pushed past one inning..</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Pitching is backwards today.When you have get the most important out of a game, you know call in a guy who is not good enough to start or close.. Totally ridiculous... maybe the hold is the answer or a stat that gives the total amount of runners on base verus the amount that scores... the save rule is riciculous. As a Met fan , I hate to say it but RIvera is probably the best ever due to longevity and consistency .. but having said that he nver ptiched 90 games or 130 innings.. one year Mike Marshall pithced in 108 games and over 200 innings and was credited with only about 30 saves... Rivera like many of today's closers, are not as effective when pushed past one inning..</p>
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		<title>By: Thomas</title>
		<link>http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/archives/8127/comment-page-1#comment-46695</link>
		<dc:creator>Thomas</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 08 Sep 2010 15:41:06 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/?p=8127#comment-46695</guid>
		<description>My apologies for not buying into the Strasburg hype and giving him a statue already.  I&#039;ll be sure to only post about the popular players from now on...</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>My apologies for not buying into the Strasburg hype and giving him a statue already.  I'll be sure to only post about the popular players from now on...</p>
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		<title>By: Jeff James</title>
		<link>http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/archives/8127/comment-page-1#comment-46615</link>
		<dc:creator>Jeff James</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 08 Sep 2010 10:51:42 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/?p=8127#comment-46615</guid>
		<description>@5 &quot;I vote Yes, he will make it and he deserves to.&quot;

It *is* kinda neat to have Jose Mesa&#039;s dad on board</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>@5 "I vote Yes, he will make it and he deserves to."</p>
<p>It *is* kinda neat to have Jose Mesa's dad on board</p>
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		<title>By: Jim</title>
		<link>http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/archives/8127/comment-page-1#comment-46611</link>
		<dc:creator>Jim</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 08 Sep 2010 10:22:44 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/?p=8127#comment-46611</guid>
		<description>I know this is quite off topic and I also know that the season isn´t over yet but I would like to give Andy a friendly jab and cite this link..... 

http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/archives/7967</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>I know this is quite off topic and I also know that the season isn´t over yet but I would like to give Andy a friendly jab and cite this link..... </p>
<p><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/archives/7967" rel="nofollow">http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/archives/7967</a></p>
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		<title>By: Andy</title>
		<link>http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/archives/8127/comment-page-1#comment-46610</link>
		<dc:creator>Andy</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 08 Sep 2010 10:19:12 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/?p=8127#comment-46610</guid>
		<description>Best comment ever</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Best comment ever</p>
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		<title>By: John Autin</title>
		<link>http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/archives/8127/comment-page-1#comment-46581</link>
		<dc:creator>John Autin</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 08 Sep 2010 06:04:53 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/?p=8127#comment-46581</guid>
		<description>@27
The more I think about it, the less impressive Mendez&#039;s game seems, because of the competition.  I mean, who *hasn&#039;t* blanked the Phils at some point this year?  Rookie Travis Wood threw a 1-hit shutout against them in just his 3rd career start, with no walks and 8 Ks.  Journeyman R.A. Dickey has faced them twice without allowing a run.  Tim Wakefield skunked them for 8 innings, then got shellacked by the Royals in his next start and soon lost his rotation spot.  Hisanori Takashi threw 6 scoreless against Philly, then got bombed by the Padres his next turn; he, too, is now out of the rotation.  Mike Pelfrey stoned them on 3 hits for 7 IP, but soon was going through a skid in which he allowed (gulp) 90 baserunners in 30 IP.  Tom (7-8) Gorzelanny?  Wade (8-12) LeBlanc?  Each had a scoreless start against the Phils.

Even Nate Robertson got in on the act with 6.1 scoreless frames back in April; a few months later, Robertson (5.47 ERA) was released by Florida, got signed by St. Louis, released by the Cards without ever throwing a pitch, and signed with ... the Phils, for whom he finished up the blowout loss to Adalberto Mendez.

But here&#039;s the crusher:  Ross Ohlendorf -- of the much-maligned Pirates -- has 11 losses in 12 starts this year.  His only win?  Could it be?  Yes! -- 7 goose eggs against the Phils in a 2-0 win, with 1 walk and 8 Ks.

So really, Mendez was just following in well-trodden footsteps.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>@27<br />
The more I think about it, the less impressive Mendez's game seems, because of the competition.  I mean, who *hasn't* blanked the Phils at some point this year?  Rookie Travis Wood threw a 1-hit shutout against them in just his 3rd career start, with no walks and 8 Ks.  Journeyman R.A. Dickey has faced them twice without allowing a run.  Tim Wakefield skunked them for 8 innings, then got shellacked by the Royals in his next start and soon lost his rotation spot.  Hisanori Takashi threw 6 scoreless against Philly, then got bombed by the Padres his next turn; he, too, is now out of the rotation.  Mike Pelfrey stoned them on 3 hits for 7 IP, but soon was going through a skid in which he allowed (gulp) 90 baserunners in 30 IP.  Tom (7-8) Gorzelanny?  Wade (8-12) LeBlanc?  Each had a scoreless start against the Phils.</p>
<p>Even Nate Robertson got in on the act with 6.1 scoreless frames back in April; a few months later, Robertson (5.47 ERA) was released by Florida, got signed by St. Louis, released by the Cards without ever throwing a pitch, and signed with ... the Phils, for whom he finished up the blowout loss to Adalberto Mendez.</p>
<p>But here's the crusher:  Ross Ohlendorf -- of the much-maligned Pirates -- has 11 losses in 12 starts this year.  His only win?  Could it be?  Yes! -- 7 goose eggs against the Phils in a 2-0 win, with 1 walk and 8 Ks.</p>
<p>So really, Mendez was just following in well-trodden footsteps.</p>
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		<title>By: John Autin</title>
		<link>http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/archives/8127/comment-page-1#comment-46577</link>
		<dc:creator>John Autin</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 08 Sep 2010 05:33:30 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/?p=8127#comment-46577</guid>
		<description>@27
If you really wanted to see how many pitchers had done what Mendez had done, then why didn&#039;t you enter ALL the possible search criteria?  You didn&#039;t include walks, HBP, pitches, wild pitches, etc., etc.  And what about throws to first?  Perhaps you&#039;d consider that to be creating a distinction without a difference -- kind of like the way I view a search that counted hits but not walks or any other kind of baserunners.  If Mendez had walked 10 batters and hit 5, he still would have met your search criteria; but it would be noteworthy only as a bizarre oddity, not an outstanding performance.

I think what you really wanted was a search that would make Mendez look impressive.

Thomas, I praised your guy, but I also tried to make a fair point, one that I think most serious stats fans would agree with -- i.e., that cherry-picking the search criteria doesn&#039;t advance the discussion.  You seem to have focused on one particular remark and taken me as a Strasburg sycophant, which I am not; in fact, I took every opportunity to argue against Strasburg being named an All-Star back when that issue was raging.  The only reason I cited Strasburg&#039;s debut is because I thought it would be widely recognized as one of the best in recent memory.

But it&#039;s hypocrisy for you to call Strasburg&#039;s debut &quot;a meaningless game ... in June,&quot; while puffing up the performance of Mendez -- a September callup for a non-contender, for crying out loud -- just because it came against a good team.  Sure, the Phillies are good -- and now they&#039;ve got the lead to prove it -- but their offense this year is nothing to crow about, as I&#039;m sure you know:  5th in NL scoring, which is actually poor considering that bandbox park; their team OPS+ is 93, a tick behind Florida&#039;s.  Mendez started the first game of a doubleheader, facing another first-time pitcher in Vance Worley, with Jimmy Rollins and Carlos Ruiz out of the starting lineup.  Do you honestly believe that the sum total of circumstances for Strasburg and Mendez was harder on Mendez?

Your likening my argument to saying that a 3-HR game is as good as a 4-HR game because &quot;what if one of those guys hit his 3rd in the 9th inning and didn&#039;t get another chance&quot; seems like mixing apples and oranges.  I was pointing out how using multiple, targeted criteria leads to a less meaningful comparison group, and you counter with a hypothetical one-category search.  But when we&#039;re talking about 4-HR games, we know exactly what we&#039;re talking about.  But when we&#039;re talking about a debut like Mendez had, exactly what are we talking about?  Are we talking about 6-IP, 1-hit, 0-run, 6-K games?  That&#039;s a pretty constricted discussion that I just don&#039;t find very interesting, except as a statistical oddity.  I freely admit to enjoying statistical oddities, but that didn&#039;t seem to be where you were coming from on Mendez.  If, on the other hand, we&#039;re talking about outstanding debut starts, then let&#039;s set some parameters and get on with it.  But don&#039;t try to set the discussion parameters at exactly what some guy did yesterday.

Finally, just because the Strasburg hype was incredibly annoying doesn&#039;t give you an excuse to pretend that he didn&#039;t pitch tremendously while he lasted, or that Mendez had a better debut.  Because no other pitcher in the searchable era has ever debuted with at least 11 Ks (see, I&#039;m not cherry-picking) and no walks; and only 42 pitchers have had a game of at least 14 Ks and no walks at *any* point in their career.  That combination is a sign of massive ability.  (Check out that list; there&#039;s not a single &quot;nobody&quot; on it.  Even Sterling Hitchcock won over 70 games.  http://www.baseball-reference.com/play-index/pgl_finder.cgi#n1=&amp;as=result_pitcher&amp;offset=0&amp;match=gmatchCar&amp;st=&amp;min_year_game=1920&amp;max_year_game=2010&amp;series=any&amp;series_game=any&amp;WL=any&amp;team_id=&amp;team_lg=&amp;opp_id=&amp;opp_lg=&amp;throws=any&amp;HV=any&amp;game_site=&amp;Role=anyGS&amp;DEC=any&amp;orderby=SO&amp;c1pgl=SO&amp;c1gtlt=gt&amp;c1val=14&amp;c2pgl=BB&amp;c2gtlt=lt&amp;c2val=0&amp;c3pgl=&amp;c3gtlt=eq&amp;c3val=0&amp;c4pgl=&amp;c4gtlt=eq&amp;c4val=0&amp;c5pgl=&amp;c5gtlt=eq&amp;c5val=1.0&amp;c5pgl_b=&amp;firstgames=&amp;firstteamgames=)</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>@27<br />
If you really wanted to see how many pitchers had done what Mendez had done, then why didn't you enter ALL the possible search criteria?  You didn't include walks, HBP, pitches, wild pitches, etc., etc.  And what about throws to first?  Perhaps you'd consider that to be creating a distinction without a difference -- kind of like the way I view a search that counted hits but not walks or any other kind of baserunners.  If Mendez had walked 10 batters and hit 5, he still would have met your search criteria; but it would be noteworthy only as a bizarre oddity, not an outstanding performance.</p>
<p>I think what you really wanted was a search that would make Mendez look impressive.</p>
<p>Thomas, I praised your guy, but I also tried to make a fair point, one that I think most serious stats fans would agree with -- i.e., that cherry-picking the search criteria doesn't advance the discussion.  You seem to have focused on one particular remark and taken me as a Strasburg sycophant, which I am not; in fact, I took every opportunity to argue against Strasburg being named an All-Star back when that issue was raging.  The only reason I cited Strasburg's debut is because I thought it would be widely recognized as one of the best in recent memory.</p>
<p>But it's hypocrisy for you to call Strasburg's debut "a meaningless game ... in June," while puffing up the performance of Mendez -- a September callup for a non-contender, for crying out loud -- just because it came against a good team.  Sure, the Phillies are good -- and now they've got the lead to prove it -- but their offense this year is nothing to crow about, as I'm sure you know:  5th in NL scoring, which is actually poor considering that bandbox park; their team OPS+ is 93, a tick behind Florida's.  Mendez started the first game of a doubleheader, facing another first-time pitcher in Vance Worley, with Jimmy Rollins and Carlos Ruiz out of the starting lineup.  Do you honestly believe that the sum total of circumstances for Strasburg and Mendez was harder on Mendez?</p>
<p>Your likening my argument to saying that a 3-HR game is as good as a 4-HR game because "what if one of those guys hit his 3rd in the 9th inning and didn't get another chance" seems like mixing apples and oranges.  I was pointing out how using multiple, targeted criteria leads to a less meaningful comparison group, and you counter with a hypothetical one-category search.  But when we're talking about 4-HR games, we know exactly what we're talking about.  But when we're talking about a debut like Mendez had, exactly what are we talking about?  Are we talking about 6-IP, 1-hit, 0-run, 6-K games?  That's a pretty constricted discussion that I just don't find very interesting, except as a statistical oddity.  I freely admit to enjoying statistical oddities, but that didn't seem to be where you were coming from on Mendez.  If, on the other hand, we're talking about outstanding debut starts, then let's set some parameters and get on with it.  But don't try to set the discussion parameters at exactly what some guy did yesterday.</p>
<p>Finally, just because the Strasburg hype was incredibly annoying doesn't give you an excuse to pretend that he didn't pitch tremendously while he lasted, or that Mendez had a better debut.  Because no other pitcher in the searchable era has ever debuted with at least 11 Ks (see, I'm not cherry-picking) and no walks; and only 42 pitchers have had a game of at least 14 Ks and no walks at *any* point in their career.  That combination is a sign of massive ability.  (Check out that list; there's not a single "nobody" on it.  Even Sterling Hitchcock won over 70 games.  <a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/play-index/pgl_finder.cgi#n1=&#038;as=result_pitcher&#038;offset=0&#038;match=gmatchCar&#038;st=&#038;min_year_game=1920&#038;max_year_game=2010&#038;series=any&#038;series_game=any&#038;WL=any&#038;team_id=&#038;team_lg=&#038;opp_id=&#038;opp_lg=&#038;throws=any&#038;HV=any&#038;game_site=&#038;Role=anyGS&#038;DEC=any&#038;orderby=SO&#038;c1pgl=SO&#038;c1gtlt=gt&#038;c1val=14&#038;c2pgl=BB&#038;c2gtlt=lt&#038;c2val=0&#038;c3pgl=&#038;c3gtlt=eq&#038;c3val=0&#038;c4pgl=&#038;c4gtlt=eq&#038;c4val=0&#038;c5pgl=&#038;c5gtlt=eq&#038;c5val=1.0&#038;c5pgl_b=&#038;firstgames=&#038;firstteamgames=" rel="nofollow">http://www.baseball-reference.com/play-index/pgl_finder.cgi#n1=&#038;as=result_pitcher&#038;offset=0&#038;match=gmatchCar&#038;st=&#038;min_year_game=1920&#038;max_year_game=2010&#038;series=any&#038;series_game=any&#038;WL=any&#038;team_id=&#038;team_lg=&#038;opp_id=&#038;opp_lg=&#038;throws=any&#038;HV=any&#038;game_site=&#038;Role=anyGS&#038;DEC=any&#038;orderby=SO&#038;c1pgl=SO&#038;c1gtlt=gt&#038;c1val=14&#038;c2pgl=BB&#038;c2gtlt=lt&#038;c2val=0&#038;c3pgl=&#038;c3gtlt=eq&#038;c3val=0&#038;c4pgl=&#038;c4gtlt=eq&#038;c4val=0&#038;c5pgl=&#038;c5gtlt=eq&#038;c5val=1.0&#038;c5pgl_b=&#038;firstgames=&#038;firstteamgames=</a>)</p>
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		<title>By: Thomas</title>
		<link>http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/archives/8127/comment-page-1#comment-46576</link>
		<dc:creator>Thomas</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 08 Sep 2010 05:32:26 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/?p=8127#comment-46576</guid>
		<description>Dillon Gee threw a gem today in his first major league start too!!  Although, I guess it wasn&#039;t as good as Strasburg&#039;s.....</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Dillon Gee threw a gem today in his first major league start too!!  Although, I guess it wasn't as good as Strasburg's.....</p>
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		<title>By: masternachos</title>
		<link>http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/archives/8127/comment-page-1#comment-46564</link>
		<dc:creator>masternachos</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 08 Sep 2010 04:32:01 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/?p=8127#comment-46564</guid>
		<description>@29- Really just a poor choice of words. I meant none are &#039;likely&#039;, and was thinking that players with those HOF Monitor numbers were usually &#039;lock-i-er&#039;, but looking again, there are a lot of borderliners with numbers in the 95-115 range; the only &#039;locks&#039; would be the likes of Willie McCovey (110), Roy Campanella (106, short career) and Wille Stargell (106).</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>@29- Really just a poor choice of words. I meant none are 'likely', and was thinking that players with those HOF Monitor numbers were usually 'lock-i-er', but looking again, there are a lot of borderliners with numbers in the 95-115 range; the only 'locks' would be the likes of Willie McCovey (110), Roy Campanella (106, short career) and Wille Stargell (106).</p>
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