Comments on: John Lackey’s home/road splits in 2010 http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/archives/8017 This and that about baseball stats. Tue, 16 Jul 2013 17:01:55 +0000 hourly 1 https://wordpress.org/?v=4.6 By: Neil http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/archives/8017/comment-page-1#comment-44644 Wed, 01 Sep 2010 23:18:06 +0000 http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/?p=8017#comment-44644 @12
It took a while to digest all you were saying, Robert. I'm don't really see enough Yankees or Red Sox games to offer an informed opinion on what their starting rotations might look next year.

From a distance, it seems like no one is expecting a bounce-back year from Lackey next year, perhaps his age and all. One should also remember that Burnett's consistency is....inconsistency. One good year, one bad year....

If the Yankees were not having a good year overall do think Burnett would still be in the rotation or is he being paid too much to ever go into relief?

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By: MikeD http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/archives/8017/comment-page-1#comment-44416 Wed, 01 Sep 2010 06:29:12 +0000 http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/?p=8017#comment-44416 @12, I'd say the Red Sox are just about as capable of absorbing bad contracts as the Yankees. If Lackey gets worse, I don't expect the Sox will keep parading him out on the mound every fifth day, although they'll probably get at least three years into the contract before they decide to hit flush.

I think your point though on having three pitchers in the starting rotation that all seem to have injuries is more key. That does put a lot of pressure on the bullpen and the farm system. Dice-K does seem the most logical to move, and they probably should consider it this offseason if they can replace him with a more durable option.

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By: Neil http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/archives/8017/comment-page-1#comment-44296 Tue, 31 Aug 2010 22:49:21 +0000 http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/?p=8017#comment-44296 Jason, a useful contribution to the discussion. No doubt, the AL East is a beast this year but I'm not sure if the imbalanced schedule is enough to account for the split. Would have to break down the individual gamelogs but then the sample size in terms of starts for Lackey this year might be small.

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By: Robert http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/archives/8017/comment-page-1#comment-44295 Tue, 31 Aug 2010 22:41:51 +0000 http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/?p=8017#comment-44295 Neil @7, I think we're basically in agreement here. The Yankees have the resources to more easily absorb, ummm, let's just call them "errors." My point was, on the starting rotation side, the Yankees only have one of their five slots blocked by a pitcher, Burnett, who may become an increasing liability, yet who still has three years left on his contract. He was solid in '09, he has been bad this year. My guess is they will give him one more year, and if he doesn't step it back up they will move him to another team his last two seasons, eating at least half the cost. That's always the advantage the Yankees have, but even if they keep him and he drifts toward being their #5, they have a lot of quality arms coming up, so one or two can either enter the rotation, or they can use them as trade bait to land another starter.

On the Red Sox side, the signing of Lackey locked down 3/5ths of the rotation with Dice-K, Beckett and Lackey. If they were all in top form that wouldn't be a problem, just like Burnett wouldn't be a problem for the Yankees. Yet there's a good reason to believe that the best is behind them for all three, and all three are not known for durability, which will create extra stress on the Sox. The Sox have some very good arms in their system, too. They're going to have to work a little harder than the Yankees to find them openings as starters. The easiest guy to move right now is Dice-K. He has two years and $20 million left on that $100 investment, but if they throw a good amount of money in someone will take him. Problem is he misses way too much time to be a member of a rotation trying to compete in the AL East. Add in Beckett's issues and now Lackey's history of missing games, and you can see the problem with this rotation.

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By: Jason Rennie http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/archives/8017/comment-page-1#comment-44287 Tue, 31 Aug 2010 22:23:17 +0000 http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/?p=8017#comment-44287 ERA+ only accounts for league and home ballpark. Another factor is the teams Lackey pitched against. This year, the division opponents (NYY, TOR, TBR, BAL) have a run/game average of 4.72. Had he stayed with LAA, his division opponents (TEX, SEA, OAK) would have had a run/game average of 4.05. Is it any surprise that his ERA jumped .73 with the more difficult opponents?

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By: Neil http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/archives/8017/comment-page-1#comment-44193 Tue, 31 Aug 2010 18:37:23 +0000 http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/?p=8017#comment-44193 Got it, Gerry... my bad. You were talking cause and effect, not reasons for the split. And so was Andy most likely.

Brett, maybe we all take ourselves too seriously in here.

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By: Brett http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/archives/8017/comment-page-1#comment-44069 Tue, 31 Aug 2010 13:28:00 +0000 http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/?p=8017#comment-44069 I love grammatical wars. Hilarity.

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By: Gerry http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/archives/8017/comment-page-1#comment-43906 Tue, 31 Aug 2010 06:39:09 +0000 http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/?p=8017#comment-43906 Neil, Andy wrote, "I don't think it's fair to blame Fenway Park on Lackey's disappointing season." What I'm saying is that Fenway Park existed long before John Lackey's disappointing season, indeed, long before John Lackey, so it's not just unfair to blame Fenway on Lackey, it is chronologically ludicrous. Lackey had nothing to do with Fenway coming into existence, right? Andy's post was really about whether you can blame Lackey's season on Fenway, that is, whether you can blame Fenway for Lackey's season (and the answer seems to be, no, you can't).

I'm making a syntactic, not a sabermetric, point.

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By: Neil http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/archives/8017/comment-page-1#comment-43826 Mon, 30 Aug 2010 23:36:13 +0000 http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/?p=8017#comment-43826 Gerry, not sure what you're saying? Lackey has the same ERA at home and on road but different W-L numbers.

Robert, your knowledge of Sox minor-league system is impressive. Not sure if I totally buy your analysis of Rays vs. Yankees vs. Sox future contract commitments. New York can buy their way out of any poor decisions or injury developments. Burnett is an enigma though! No wonder the Jays let him go. Ah, the allure of "good stuff".

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By: Gerry http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/archives/8017/comment-page-1#comment-43820 Mon, 30 Aug 2010 23:14:09 +0000 http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/?p=8017#comment-43820 It would be highly anachronistic to blame Fenway Park *on* John Lackey's disappointing season. I think the point of the essay is that it's not fair to blame Fenway Park *for* Lackey's disappointing season.

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