Comments on: Phillies fans beware http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/archives/7916 This and that about baseball stats. Fri, 11 Nov 2011 16:57:02 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.3.2 By: Stu Baron http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/archives/7916/comment-page-1#comment-42624 Stu Baron Fri, 27 Aug 2010 16:23:36 +0000 http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/?p=7916#comment-42624 @Johnny Twisto: I'm not saying that the last 3 years has any effect on their odds this year, just that few teams make it to the postseason that many years in a row...traditionally, the previous season's champion and playoff participants are overrated by the media, perhaps because of the difficulty of repeating...what the Yankees did in the late 1970s and late 1990s, the Reds in 1975-76, and the A's in 1972-73-74, etc. was truly exceptional... @Johnny Twisto: I'm not saying that the last 3 years has any effect on their odds this year, just that few teams make it to the postseason that many years in a row...traditionally, the previous season's champion and playoff participants are overrated by the media, perhaps because of the difficulty of repeating...what the Yankees did in the late 1970s and late 1990s, the Reds in 1975-76, and the A's in 1972-73-74, etc. was truly exceptional...

]]> By: CKS http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/archives/7916/comment-page-1#comment-41703 CKS Tue, 24 Aug 2010 21:45:20 +0000 http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/?p=7916#comment-41703 The Braves and Phillies play six times during the last two weeks of the season. Those games will most likely shape the the NL playoff picture, at least as far as the NL East and Wild Card winners. For the Braves to do any damage in the playoffs, it's imperative that they win the division and secure home field advantage--they're an absurd 44-17 at Turner Field (best home record in MLB) and 29-35 on the road. Oswalt certainly helps the Phillies and Medlen's injury is rough on ATL, although Mike Minor (after only 2 starts) is living up to the hype and can hopefully nail down the 5th starter spot. I still think ATL's pitching is deeper than Philadelphia's...and their bullpen is definitely superior to Philly's...but as noted above, Philly is finally at full strength for the first time and they do have that heavy hitting lineup... The Braves and Phillies play six times during the last two weeks of the season. Those games will most likely shape the the NL playoff picture, at least as far as the NL East and Wild Card winners. For the Braves to do any damage in the playoffs, it's imperative that they win the division and secure home field advantage--they're an absurd 44-17 at Turner Field (best home record in MLB) and 29-35 on the road.

Oswalt certainly helps the Phillies and Medlen's injury is rough on ATL, although Mike Minor (after only 2 starts) is living up to the hype and can hopefully nail down the 5th starter spot. I still think ATL's pitching is deeper than Philadelphia's...and their bullpen is definitely superior to Philly's...but as noted above, Philly is finally at full strength for the first time and they do have that heavy hitting lineup...

]]> By: Evan http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/archives/7916/comment-page-1#comment-41564 Evan Tue, 24 Aug 2010 13:19:12 +0000 http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/?p=7916#comment-41564 To add to what I just wrote, the St Louis is just one of two teams (Colorado being the other) in MLB to have a better record this season against above-.500 teams than against below-.500 teams. In both cases the numbers are very close to even and a St Louis win tonight would give it a slightly better record against sub-.500 teams. To add to what I just wrote, the St Louis is just one of two teams (Colorado being the other) in MLB to have a better record this season against above-.500 teams than against below-.500 teams. In both cases the numbers are very close to even and a St Louis win tonight would give it a slightly better record against sub-.500 teams.

]]> By: Evan http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/archives/7916/comment-page-1#comment-41555 Evan Tue, 24 Aug 2010 12:58:46 +0000 http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/?p=7916#comment-41555 The Reds have a quirky schedule down the stretch. After the fight-marred series against the Cardinals it had 16 games remaining against above-.500 teams, all on the road, this is down to 12 after the series in LA and the first game last night in San Francisco. I'm not sure what this means for its playoff chances, but we can expect the home/road records which early in the season had them much better at home than on the road but are now even to once again diverge. Of the 25 games remaining against under-.500 teams 19 are home games and 6 are road games. Coolstandings gives a weighted aggregate winning percentage for the Reds' remaining opponents of .470, the Cardinals face .465 and the Phillies .504. The Reds have a quirky schedule down the stretch. After the fight-marred series against the Cardinals it had 16 games remaining against above-.500 teams, all on the road, this is down to 12 after the series in LA and the first game last night in San Francisco. I'm not sure what this means for its playoff chances, but we can expect the home/road records which early in the season had them much better at home than on the road but are now even to once again diverge. Of the 25 games remaining against under-.500 teams 19 are home games and 6 are road games.

Coolstandings gives a weighted aggregate winning percentage for the Reds' remaining opponents of .470, the Cardinals face .465 and the Phillies .504.

]]> By: masternachos http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/archives/7916/comment-page-1#comment-41348 masternachos Tue, 24 Aug 2010 02:45:45 +0000 http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/?p=7916#comment-41348 Don't the Reds have THE easiest schedule this year after the All-Star Break? That's what I read in The Sporting News, anyway. Don't the Reds have THE easiest schedule this year after the All-Star Break? That's what I read in The Sporting News, anyway.

]]> By: Tommy http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/archives/7916/comment-page-1#comment-41342 Tommy Tue, 24 Aug 2010 02:38:15 +0000 http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/?p=7916#comment-41342 maybe i'm just a cynic, but i keep waiting for the other shoe to drop for the Braves. the rotation, outside of Hudson, is way too inconsistent, and the offense is even worse. as much as i like Derrek Lee, i really don't think he is the answer either. maybe i'm just a cynic, but i keep waiting for the other shoe to drop for the Braves. the rotation, outside of Hudson, is way too inconsistent, and the offense is even worse. as much as i like Derrek Lee, i really don't think he is the answer either.

]]> By: DoubleDiamond http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/archives/7916/comment-page-1#comment-41327 DoubleDiamond Tue, 24 Aug 2010 02:08:47 +0000 http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/?p=7916#comment-41327 The Phillies need a better bullpen if they hope to make the postseason. The Phillies need a better bullpen if they hope to make the postseason.

]]> By: Johnny Twisto http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/archives/7916/comment-page-1#comment-41303 Johnny Twisto Tue, 24 Aug 2010 01:23:59 +0000 http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/?p=7916#comment-41303 So you're saying the Phillies' success over the last three years makes them less likely to make the postseason this season? Indeed, that is an interesting perspective. So you're saying the Phillies' success over the last three years makes them less likely to make the postseason this season? Indeed, that is an interesting perspective.

]]> By: Stu Baron http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/archives/7916/comment-page-1#comment-41228 Stu Baron Mon, 23 Aug 2010 22:27:44 +0000 http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/?p=7916#comment-41228 Of course, another way to look at it is that the Phillies have been to the playoffs 3 straight years, but few teams ever make it 4 straight. It all depends on your perspective... Of course, another way to look at it is that the Phillies have been to the playoffs 3 straight years, but few teams ever make it 4 straight. It all depends on your perspective...

]]> By: mch http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/archives/7916/comment-page-1#comment-41220 mch Mon, 23 Aug 2010 22:12:39 +0000 http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/?p=7916#comment-41220 The Phils have been there the last 2 years. The team is getting healthy and have picked up important pieces for the run (Oswalt, Sweeney). Thanks to injuries a number of the key players are rested for the playoff run, including but not limited to Utley, Howard and Victorino. If you coolstandings.com considered the Phils record to other teams in August and September for the past three years versus their competitors, it might be more optimistic about their chances. Having said that, coolstandings has had a good trackrecord in recent years predicting winners. Nonetheless, I am bullish on the Phils chances of winning the NL East and even repeating as the National League champions. The Phils have been there the last 2 years. The team is getting healthy and have picked up important pieces for the run (Oswalt, Sweeney). Thanks to injuries a number of the key players are rested for the playoff run, including but not limited to Utley, Howard and Victorino. If you coolstandings.com considered the Phils record to other teams in August and September for the past three years versus their competitors, it might be more optimistic about their chances. Having said that, coolstandings has had a good trackrecord in recent years predicting winners. Nonetheless, I am bullish on the Phils chances of winning the NL East and even repeating as the National League champions.

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