Comments on: Cliff Lee has completed a third of his starts http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/archives/7851 This and that about baseball stats. Tue, 16 Jul 2013 17:01:55 +0000 hourly 1 https://wordpress.org/?v=4.6 By: KB http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/archives/7851/comment-page-1#comment-39688 Thu, 19 Aug 2010 19:29:16 +0000 http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/?p=7851#comment-39688 Where does the idea that Lee wants "big, big money" this offseason come from? Maybe I missed something, but as far as I can tell, he hasn't indicated it. He took a very low offer with Cleveland (and look how that deal has turn out). I'm not convinced.

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By: JeffW http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/archives/7851/comment-page-1#comment-39682 Thu, 19 Aug 2010 19:19:06 +0000 http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/?p=7851#comment-39682 Conversely, a pitcher like Lee doesn't mess around. He goes right after hitters and takes care of business.

Same with Halladay. Buehrle's another one. Quick pace, purposeful demeanor.

They put themselves in a position to be there at the end.

Felix's stuff is so dominant that he doesn't have to mess around. He has wicked movement on his pitches. Sometimes, it's too good.

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By: Andy http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/archives/7851/comment-page-1#comment-39673 Thu, 19 Aug 2010 18:44:58 +0000 http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/?p=7851#comment-39673 Jeff, yes I think psychological factors like this are huge. Or rather, the impact on the player psyche, focus, and approach brought about by tendencies and trends in the game. And unfortunately they are largely invisible to us from a stats perspective. We can see that CGs, historically way way down over a long period of time, are up this year--but WHY are they up? The why is tough to determine through stats alone.

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By: JeffW http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/archives/7851/comment-page-1#comment-39668 Thu, 19 Aug 2010 18:40:13 +0000 http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/?p=7851#comment-39668 Andy (#43),

I raised this point in another thread, but how much of that rise is in the way pitchers attack hitters, knowing the way the pen will come into play?

If a starter doesn't have to worry about pacing himself through nine, he'll be willing to play around more, and waste a few pitches, trying to get a hitter to go fishing.

The same with relievers, who largely know their work will be limited to no more than about 20-25 pitches.

What's the need to be conservative?

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By: Basmati http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/archives/7851/comment-page-1#comment-39659 Thu, 19 Aug 2010 18:22:03 +0000 http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/?p=7851#comment-39659 I assumed Lee would be cheaper than Halladay due to not performing at the same level for as long, and therefore potentially a better guy to sign given that his output in recent years has been of the same caliber and he has not had the wear and tear that may catch up with Halladay in the next few years. I was surprised the Phillies let Lee go then given what they had to outlay to get Halladay.

To reply to Michael Pat, who's helping their team win more, it depends how you measure it. Lee plays in a stronger offensive league, yet he has better WHIP, H/9, HR/9, BB/9, SO/BB than Halladay. He averages more IP per start. Yes Halladay has given up fewer runs but like I said he's pitching in the NL.

Halladays team are 16-9 in games he starts. Lee's are 12-9 (8-4 in Seattle but just 4-5 in Texas).

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By: Andy http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/archives/7851/comment-page-1#comment-39657 Thu, 19 Aug 2010 18:16:33 +0000 http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/?p=7851#comment-39657 I have the data going way back and it has been gradually and steadily increasing over time. In the last 20 years it has increased 4%. That's quite significant.

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By: Zachary http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/archives/7851/comment-page-1#comment-39649 Thu, 19 Aug 2010 18:01:46 +0000 http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/?p=7851#comment-39649 No offense, Andy, but a tenth of a pitch isn't exactly a lot, especially with only a decade of data. That's an extra three or four pitches a game, maybe, and it is "absolutely wrong" to conclude that the pitch/PA rate has been steadily rising for many years. With a percentage change that small, it could easily be a statistical quirk. So, yeah, I stand by my original statement.

And 37, I don't consider it a positive change in the game to have the best pitchers throw fewer and fewer innings. How does it make the game better to exchange 80 innings of Jon Lester for 80 of Ramon Ramirez and Scott Atchison?

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By: BSK http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/archives/7851/comment-page-1#comment-39559 Thu, 19 Aug 2010 12:47:03 +0000 http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/?p=7851#comment-39559 "It was pretty straight-forward. Halladay agreed to a very favorable extension. Supposedly, Lee was offered the same and made a counter offer. Lee wants big, big money this offseason. Trade had nothing to do with talent."

I don't know it's fair to make that conclusion. It is not like both were sitting there and they chose Halladay over Lee. They had Lee, traded him away, and then traded even more to get Halladay. Obviously, they perceived Halladay to be better than Lee. And maybe they were right. But they gave a huge extension to a 33-year-old pitcher with 2000 innings on his arm and jettisoned a 31-year-old pitcher with 1200 innings on his arm. Now, maybe it was a financial decision, but I have to assume that their perception of the relative talent level was somewhat of a factor. Maybe the money was that far apart, but seeing as how they gave Halladay $20 mil a year, I struggle to think that Lee asked for so much more that it was worth it to take the net loss in prospects that they did. The Phillies clearly didn't think that Lee plus the difference in prospects was worth what he was asking, but that Halladay minus the difference in prospects was worth $20 mil. There are a lot of factors there, obviously, and it is hard to ferret out exactly what impacted what, but my gut says Lee's track record gave the Phillies some pause (and maybe rightfully so... who knows).

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By: Andy http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/archives/7851/comment-page-1#comment-39549 Thu, 19 Aug 2010 11:15:52 +0000 http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/?p=7851#comment-39549 #36, that's absolutely wrong. Pitches per plate appearance has been steadily on the rise.

http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/archives/7482

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By: Gerry http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/archives/7851/comment-page-1#comment-39515 Thu, 19 Aug 2010 04:59:44 +0000 http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/?p=7851#comment-39515 So when was the last time a pitcher completed half his starts (minimum 10 CG)? I get Bobby Witt, 1988, 13 CG in 22 starts. In 1942, Ted Lyons completed all 20 of his starts. I don't think any other pitcher has done that since 1920.

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