Comments on: Winning in extra innings is more luck than skill http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/archives/7612 This and that about baseball stats. Tue, 16 Jul 2013 17:01:55 +0000 hourly 1 https://wordpress.org/?v=4.6 By: Andy http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/archives/7612/comment-page-1#comment-35418 Sun, 01 Aug 2010 13:16:04 +0000 http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/?p=7612#comment-35418 Good stuff, JT. Looks like if you took the extra-inning games out of the overall numbers, the correlation would get a little worse but still be real.

It goes along with what I was thinking--in the sense that there's enough randomness to make almost any outcome a strong possibility. Over the years I'm sure there are tons of example of teams that win only 40% of their games overall but won 60% of their extra-inning games, etc.

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By: Johnny Twisto http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/archives/7612/comment-page-1#comment-35394 Sun, 01 Aug 2010 05:10:42 +0000 http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/?p=7612#comment-35394 Alright, I ran some numbers. Some caveats: (1) Even with Evan's helpful hint, I still had to separate the extra innings records into 2 columns and could have mistranscribed a number; and (2) I'm a bit drunk.

I looked at the records since 2006, so 5.5+ seasons. First, the correlation between overall record and extra-inning record is .218. Not a great correlation, but certainly a positive one. I had thought it might be about 0.3. It would probably be better to compare records in 9-inning games, instead of overall records, to extra-inning games, but I'm too lazy for that right now.

The average winning % of teams over .550 is .584, and their extra-inning record is .556.

The average winning % of teams under .450 is .410, and their extra-inning record is .472.

The average winning % of teams between .450 and .550 is .506, and their extra-inning record is .489.

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By: Johnny Twisto http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/archives/7612/comment-page-1#comment-35328 Sat, 31 Jul 2010 15:38:55 +0000 http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/?p=7612#comment-35328 I was trying something along those lines but not exactly the way you described. This seems to work. Thanks. Will try to find time later to run the numbers and see what they say.

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By: Evan http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/archives/7612/comment-page-1#comment-35108 Sat, 31 Jul 2010 04:20:08 +0000 http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/?p=7612#comment-35108 JT,

Before copying into the excel sheet, click on the column header you want to put the EI records into. Then select format, cells (I forget the exact terminology) and format them as text. It should then treat whatever you enter as text instead of trying to interpret the numbers as dates. If this doesn't help or is confusing, post back here and I will repost from a computer that has Excel installed so I can give better instructions.

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By: Johnny Twisto http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/archives/7612/comment-page-1#comment-34844 Fri, 30 Jul 2010 19:47:08 +0000 http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/?p=7612#comment-34844 Was going to try comparing records to extra-inning records but it's too hard to pull the numbers into Excel. The extra-inning records are given in one column on the league pages (8-5), and Excel keeps turning that into a date (5-Aug) when I copy them in. I don't have the time or patience right now to enter them all manually. Anyone got any Excel tips to avoid that?

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By: Gerry http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/archives/7612/comment-page-1#comment-34746 Fri, 30 Jul 2010 04:07:49 +0000 http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/?p=7612#comment-34746 The only teams I found with perfect records in extra-inning games were the 1995 Indians (13-0), the 1928 Athletics (8-0), and the 1948 Reds (5-0). At least as impressive were the 1949 Indians (18-1) and the 1959 Pirates (19-2, the most extra-inning wins of any team since 1901).

At the other extreme, the 1969 Expos were 0-12, and the 1982 Twins were 1-13.

The 1943 Red Sox played 31 extra-inning ballgames; the 1936 Browns, only 3.

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By: Max http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/archives/7612/comment-page-1#comment-34706 Thu, 29 Jul 2010 22:03:42 +0000 http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/?p=7612#comment-34706 The Cardinals won because the Mets were stupid enough to pitch to Pujols. Check out http://www.thefantasybaseballguru.com leave comments ask qs and tell me what you think.

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By: Evan http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/archives/7612/comment-page-1#comment-34679 Thu, 29 Jul 2010 20:42:09 +0000 http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/?p=7612#comment-34679 Djibouti @16,

Remember that league-wide records for Last 10, 20 etc. don't necessarily have to produce a .500 record. Because of variations in off days Team A's victory over Team B might be included in one team's Last 10, but not the other's.

If you add up the combined records of all teams L10 (fairly easy if you sort by L10 record) you get 152-148 (as of the morning update for 7.29.2010). Which would make the average record 5.0666-4.9333. The code which produces the league averages must be truncating this number instead of rounding it.

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By: Djibouti http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/archives/7612/comment-page-1#comment-34672 Thu, 29 Jul 2010 20:14:43 +0000 http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/?p=7612#comment-34672 @Andy #2

I assumed it was rounding and just posted because I thought it was kind of funny looking, but the more I think about it, the less I understand how that happened. How are game record averages calculated? I would think you'd just add up the wins, add up the losses, and divide by total games, which when looking at league-wide standings would always give a perfect .500 record. Especially since in the last10 column, for example, every team has played exactly 10 games. Looking at the other columns, total W-L, pyth W-L came out to a perfect 50/50, which is surprising since I'd expect the rounding error there since not all teams have played the same amount of games. R vs. RA came out perfectly as did Home+Road splits, Inter, ExInn, 1Run, and vRHP+vLHP. The only other column(s) with a discrepancy is >=.500 and <.500 add up to a 49-50 record. So are the basic calculations for the averages for all of these columns the same and by some fluke rounding error some came out to 50/50 and others didn't? And if so, what's the calculation being used?

(I'm not trying to be critical or anything, you guys consistently do an amazing job on every facet of this site. It's just that as an engineer I have a compulsive need to know how mis-matched data came to be that way)

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By: Johnny Twisto http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/archives/7612/comment-page-1#comment-34663 Thu, 29 Jul 2010 19:33:23 +0000 http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/?p=7612#comment-34663 I would suspect that over the years, record in extra innings shows little-to-no correlation with record in regulation-length games.

I'm guessing there is a decent correlation. Not a strong one, but certainly more than "little-to-no." Certainly in any one season a good team could play badly in extra inning games, and vice versa. If you look at all records of all teams over several years, I bet good teams play above .500 in extra innings. Basically I agree with Kds #6. Anyone want to actually dig up the numbers?

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