Comments on: POLL: Vladimir Guerrero and the Hall of Fame http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/archives/7546 This and that about baseball stats. Tue, 16 Jul 2013 17:01:55 +0000 hourly 1 https://wordpress.org/?v=4.6 By: John Q http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/archives/7546/comment-page-2#comment-35558 Tue, 03 Aug 2010 03:34:51 +0000 http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/?p=7546#comment-35558 There is value to a batting average, but nowhere near the level of attention it receives/received that's why it's overrated. On base percentage is the key stat.

There is no clock in baseball so the 27 outs become the most valuable items in a game. The player with the ability to not make outs is the better player.

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By: John Q http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/archives/7546/comment-page-2#comment-35553 Tue, 03 Aug 2010 03:24:36 +0000 http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/?p=7546#comment-35553 I never said Vlad doesn't deserve to go into the HOF or that Evans was a better player. Actually I think I said somewhere that if you put Vlad's peak with his career WAR that it averages out to 50 which is past the median which is a no-doubt HOF for me.

I was just pointing out that you shouldn't just look at something like Batting Average to show the value of a player.

And 3b is the most underrated position in baseball. They just don't vote for 3b. The HOF only has 6 of the top 15 third basemen in major league history in the HOF. There's no other position like that.

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By: Matt Young http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/archives/7546/comment-page-2#comment-35552 Tue, 03 Aug 2010 03:24:36 +0000 http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/?p=7546#comment-35552 While OBP is better, I still don't subscribe to such nonsense of batting average is "very" overrated. Yes, a bit overrated fore sure, but I still value someone putting the ball in play.

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By: Matt Young http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/archives/7546/comment-page-2#comment-35551 Tue, 03 Aug 2010 02:45:07 +0000 http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/?p=7546#comment-35551 Gee, .361, and Damon's is .357 and Vlad's is "only" .385.

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By: John Q http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/archives/7546/comment-page-2#comment-35536 Mon, 02 Aug 2010 21:47:54 +0000 http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/?p=7546#comment-35536 Let's remember that Batting Average is very overrated and that Darrell Evans has a lifetime .361 on base percentage. That's higher than HOF Jim Rice, Andre Dawson, Roberto Clemente, Reggie Jackson, Dave Winfield, Robin Yount, Ryne Sandberg, Johnny Bench, Yogi Berra, Kirby Puckett, Willie Stargell, Eddie Murray, Tony Perez, Lou Brock, Cal Ripken and Ernie Banks by the way. And also remember that Evans spent his prime at Candlestick Park, one of the worst hitter's parks in the N.L. during the 70's-80's. Evans also was a very good defensive third basemen.

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By: Justin Jones http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/archives/7546/comment-page-2#comment-35510 Mon, 02 Aug 2010 18:03:41 +0000 http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/?p=7546#comment-35510 @Matt Young:

Very true. I don't dispute that Vlad is a better hitter, per 162, than the Evanses. Of course, I wasn't making the case that either of the Evanses should be in the Hall, simply pointing out that in career value, they are comparable players to Vlad, and are not getting in the Hall anytime soon. If we're choosing Right Fielders, it comes down to personal preference, I suppose: Would you rather have the better hitter who is essentially washed up as a defensive player at age 32, or would you rather have the very good hitter who was also a perennial Gold Glove fielder? You couldn't go wrong with either guy, really, but I think I'd take Dwight Evans.

A further note on the Vlad/Abreu comparison I made earlier. Vlad and Bobby have played in about the same # of career games (Vlad: 1949, Abreu: 2048). Abreu has 600 more career PAs, but that is because he is more durable and fit than Vlad, which should be registered as a modest advantage for Bobby. FanGraphs shows that, since 2002, Abreu has seen 26,010 pitches, while Vlad has seen about 17,000. This is a comparative advantage for Abreu, certainly in the current era of tightly-monitored pitch counts. Abreu is causing opposing pitchers to throw him 1,000 more pitches per season than Guerrero; to put it another way, Abreu is causing opposing teams to use the equivalent of 10 extra 100-pitch starts per season. I don't know exactly what the run value of that is, and I wouldn't want to overstate it, but still, it is there.

Again, I'm not making the case for Abreu for the HoF, just that he's of comparable value to Vlad. There are arguments to be made for and against both players; neither is a no-brainer, and I'd say that their value is probably too close to reasonably call.

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By: Matt Young http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/archives/7546/comment-page-2#comment-35423 Sun, 01 Aug 2010 13:44:09 +0000 http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/?p=7546#comment-35423 Pujols has about the same career Win Shares as Vlad, but with 1700 fewer plate appearances. He is dominating the game in a way that Vlad, the Evanses, etc have not, and that is why Pujols is a no-brainer, while reasonable arguments can be made for *and* against Guerrero's HoF candidacy".

And Vlad has gotten his 330 Win Shares in 3000+ less AB's than the Evanses.

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By: Justin Jones http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/archives/7546/comment-page-2#comment-35388 Sun, 01 Aug 2010 02:43:42 +0000 http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/?p=7546#comment-35388 I wasn't making the case that the Evanses should be in, just that they are of comparable (or superior) value to Vlad. Dwight Evans has 347 career Win Shares, Darrell Evans has 367: both higher totals than Vlad. The Hall is just fine without them, and, as with Vlad, it's not the end of the world if they get in, either.

It seems to me that what Guerrero has to sell is offense, specifically batting average and power. His offense is mitigated by the fact that a) he's played in the big-hitting 90s & 00s b) 1/3 of his career walks have been IBBs issued by stupid managers, c) he's grounded into a ridiculous number of double plays. His defense is just average. Both of the Evanses, while not the impact hitters per 162 that Vlad is, were a) still both very good hitters, and b) unlike Vlad, were very good glove men.

As to my "no-brainer" standard...I think it makes perfect sense. There are plenty of players in the Hall of Fame who are no-brainers, even though they do not rise to the Ruth-Wagner-Mays standard of excellence--the Robin Younts, Tony Gwynns, Paul Molitors, etc. They aren't no-brainers because of the inferior players already in the Hall; they are no-brainers when compared against all of the other players from their eras, and the other players in baseball history.

Most of the mediocre Hall of Fame selections were the result of a) publicity from "The Glory of Their Times" and the like b) Veteran's Committee members inducting their old teammates and cronies, or c) the culmination of long-term PR campaigns/agitation (Jim Rice, Phil Rizzuto, etc). Take those guys away, and that does nothing to the "no-brainer" standard. If all of the Maranvilles, Lazzeris, et al were removed from the Hall, would that cease to make Albert Pujols a no-brainer? Of course not. Why? Because Pujols has led the league in Runs four times, HR once, Batting Average once, OBP once, SLG four times, OPS three times, Total Bases four times, Runs Created three times...should I go on? His career OPS+ is 7th All Time. He has about the same career Win Shares as Vlad, but with 1700 fewer plate appearances. He is dominating the game in a way that Vlad, the Evanses, etc have not, and that is why Pujols is a no-brainer, while reasonable arguments can be made for *and* against Guerrero's HoF candidacy.

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By: Matt Young http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/archives/7546/comment-page-2#comment-35386 Sun, 01 Aug 2010 01:47:24 +0000 http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/?p=7546#comment-35386 I see Darrell Evans' somewhat consistently being brought up as underrated, and was he more valuable than a lifetime .248 hitter, yes he was underrated, but even with his 57.7 WAR, please, lets remember he still was a .248 hitter!!

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By: Matt Young http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/archives/7546/comment-page-2#comment-35384 Sun, 01 Aug 2010 01:41:29 +0000 http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/?p=7546#comment-35384 Vlad's also passed Darrell Evans in WAR in 6 less seasons and Dwight in 5 less seasons. I agree, Dick Allen should be in.

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