Comments on: October Game Changers http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/archives/7526 This and that about baseball stats. Fri, 11 Nov 2011 16:57:02 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.3.2 By: Tuesday Links (27 Jul 10) – Ducksnorts http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/archives/7526/comment-page-1#comment-33976 Tuesday Links (27 Jul 10) – Ducksnorts Tue, 27 Jul 2010 12:56:15 +0000 http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/?p=7526#comment-33976 [...] October Game Changers (Baseball-Reference). Steve Garvey had one of the biggest hits ever in a postseason game as a member of the Padres. On an unrelated note, I wonder if the Dodgers will ever retire his number. [...] [...] October Game Changers (Baseball-Reference). Steve Garvey had one of the biggest hits ever in a postseason game as a member of the Padres. On an unrelated note, I wonder if the Dodgers will ever retire his number. [...]

]]> By: Brendan Burke http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/archives/7526/comment-page-1#comment-33906 Brendan Burke Mon, 26 Jul 2010 20:56:32 +0000 http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/?p=7526#comment-33906 There should be a regular season list as well for this. There should be a regular season list as well for this.

]]> By: Ryan http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/archives/7526/comment-page-1#comment-33829 Ryan Mon, 26 Jul 2010 12:59:09 +0000 http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/?p=7526#comment-33829 Joe Carter's at-bats, for Game 6 of the 1993 World Series: 1st inning: sac fly, +2% 3rd inning: groundout, -1% 5th inning: groundout, -0% 8th inning: flyout, -8% (after the Phillies rallied to take the lead) 9th inning: home run, +66% Overall ~= 0.59 Carter probably just missed the cut for 30th. Players like Cabrera and Gibson have it much easier, because they had one at-bat with high implications. Joe Carter's at-bats, for Game 6 of the 1993 World Series:

1st inning: sac fly, +2%
3rd inning: groundout, -1%
5th inning: groundout, -0%
8th inning: flyout, -8% (after the Phillies rallied to take the lead)
9th inning: home run, +66%

Overall ~= 0.59

Carter probably just missed the cut for 30th. Players like Cabrera and Gibson have it much easier, because they had one at-bat with high implications.

]]> By: DonDraper http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/archives/7526/comment-page-1#comment-33648 DonDraper Sun, 25 Jul 2010 13:44:09 +0000 http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/?p=7526#comment-33648 Note that the WPA shown here is not always for a single at-bat... it sums up a batter's WPA for the game. Brian Jordan, for example, had to clutch hits in 1999 for total of about .800 WPA, but no single hit was worth more that .410. Note that the WPA shown here is not always for a single at-bat... it sums up a batter's WPA for the game. Brian Jordan, for example, had to clutch hits in 1999 for total of about .800 WPA, but no single hit was worth more that .410.

]]> By: John Q http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/archives/7526/comment-page-1#comment-33281 John Q Sat, 24 Jul 2010 16:34:06 +0000 http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/?p=7526#comment-33281 Richard, Good catch, my bad on that one. I thought the score was tied for some reason. The bigger question is why isn't Joe Carter on this list? Bottom of the ninth down by a run man on first and second with 1 out? His WPA on the boxscore is 66% which should put him around the Terry Pendleton/Hal Smith territory. Why isn't he on this list??? Is it a glitch? The Bernie Carbo 1975 HR is another underrated post-seasons HR. That comes out to a 44% by comparison, I think Fisk' HR is around a 36% WPA. Richard,

Good catch, my bad on that one. I thought the score was tied for some reason.

The bigger question is why isn't Joe Carter on this list? Bottom of the ninth down by a run man on first and second with 1 out? His WPA on the boxscore is 66% which should put him around the Terry Pendleton/Hal Smith territory. Why isn't he on this list??? Is it a glitch?

The Bernie Carbo 1975 HR is another underrated post-seasons HR. That comes out to a 44% by comparison, I think Fisk' HR is around a 36% WPA.

]]> By: Richard http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/archives/7526/comment-page-1#comment-32871 Richard Sat, 24 Jul 2010 04:15:45 +0000 http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/?p=7526#comment-32871 @ 20 John Q "The reason why Fisk, Chambiss, Carter, Mazerowski, or Boone don't appear on this list is that the score was tied when they hit the HR, their teams wasn't on the verge of losing the game." If by Carter, you mean Joe Carter, I can assure you as a Phillies fan that the score was most definitely NOT tied when he hit his walk-off HR. :( @ 20 John Q

"The reason why Fisk, Chambiss, Carter, Mazerowski, or Boone don't appear on this list is that the score was tied when they hit the HR, their teams wasn't on the verge of losing the game."

If by Carter, you mean Joe Carter, I can assure you as a Phillies fan that the score was most definitely NOT tied when he hit his walk-off HR. :(

]]> By: John Q http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/archives/7526/comment-page-1#comment-32850 John Q Sat, 24 Jul 2010 03:40:19 +0000 http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/?p=7526#comment-32850 I totally forgot about the Gary Carter double with two outs in the top of the ninth with two men on base down 1-2 in game #1 in the 1988 NLCS. I totally forgot about the Gary Carter double with two outs in the top of the ninth with two men on base down 1-2 in game #1 in the 1988 NLCS.

]]> By: DoubleDiamond http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/archives/7526/comment-page-1#comment-32759 DoubleDiamond Sat, 24 Jul 2010 01:06:03 +0000 http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/?p=7526#comment-32759 It's interesting to see how many of those that weren't game 7's (or game 5's in the Division Series or the pre-1985 League Championship Series) turned things around for that day's winning team, only for that team to eventually lose in that series. I counted 8 such games. I also noticed that there was one in which the team of the player who got the game-changing hit eventually lost that game. I had remembered that Boston beat St. Louis in the 2004 World Series, so I had incremented my count to 9 when I looked at the next-to-last entry showing a Cardinals player doing it against the Red Sox in that Series. But then I remembered that it was a sweep and noticed that St. Louis still lost that game. It's interesting to see how many of those that weren't game 7's (or game 5's in the Division Series or the pre-1985 League Championship Series) turned things around for that day's winning team, only for that team to eventually lose in that series. I counted 8 such games. I also noticed that there was one in which the team of the player who got the game-changing hit eventually lost that game. I had remembered that Boston beat St. Louis in the 2004 World Series, so I had incremented my count to 9 when I looked at the next-to-last entry showing a Cardinals player doing it against the Red Sox in that Series. But then I remembered that it was a sweep and noticed that St. Louis still lost that game.

]]> By: Frank http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/archives/7526/comment-page-1#comment-32712 Frank Fri, 23 Jul 2010 23:34:59 +0000 http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/?p=7526#comment-32712 I was surprised that none of Mr. Octobers {Reggie Jackson} heroics made this list I was surprised that none of Mr. Octobers {Reggie Jackson} heroics made this list

]]> By: John Q http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/archives/7526/comment-page-1#comment-32639 John Q Fri, 23 Jul 2010 20:48:12 +0000 http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/?p=7526#comment-32639 @Tmckelv #6, Well said, I was thinking the same thing. The Hal Smith HR in game 7 of the 1960 world series has to be the most under-appreciated big time post-season moment in baseball history. It's never talked about or he's never interviewed and it's never brought up when they talk about the 1960 world series. The Pirates were down 6-7 in the bottom of the 8th with 2 outs and Hal Smith hit a 3 run home run to give the Pirates the lead 9-7. What's also left out of the story of that game is that the Yankees came back and tied the game in the top of the ninth. But if they Pirates had held on to the lead in the top of the ninth Hal Smith would have been a household name and world series hero and Maz would have never gotten in the HOF. The reason why Fisk, Chambiss, Carter, Mazerowski, or Boone don't appear on this list is that the score was tied when they hit the HR, their teams wasn't on the verge of losing the game. The Keller double in the '41 series is another underrated play. I guess all the attention is on Mickey Owen dropping the third strike on Henrich but there was still 2 outs and the Yankees were behind when Keller hit the double in the top of the 9th to put the Yankees ahead. If Casey gets Keller out, Owen is a footnote is WS history. Stan Hack is a very underrated player and should be in the HOF. I've never read about his 12th inning double with a man on first to win the game 6 for the Cubs in the 1945 series. @Tmckelv #6,

Well said, I was thinking the same thing. The Hal Smith HR in game 7 of the 1960 world series has to be the most under-appreciated big time post-season moment in baseball history. It's never talked about or he's never interviewed and it's never brought up when they talk about the 1960 world series.

The Pirates were down 6-7 in the bottom of the 8th with 2 outs and Hal Smith hit a 3 run home run to give the Pirates the lead 9-7. What's also left out of the story of that game is that the Yankees came back and tied the game in the top of the ninth. But if they Pirates had held on to the lead in the top of the ninth Hal Smith would have been a household name and world series hero and Maz would have never gotten in the HOF.

The reason why Fisk, Chambiss, Carter, Mazerowski, or Boone don't appear on this list is that the score was tied when they hit the HR, their teams wasn't on the verge of losing the game.

The Keller double in the '41 series is another underrated play. I guess all the attention is on Mickey Owen dropping the third strike on Henrich but there was still 2 outs and the Yankees were behind when Keller hit the double in the top of the 9th to put the Yankees ahead. If Casey gets Keller out, Owen is a footnote is WS history.

Stan Hack is a very underrated player and should be in the HOF. I've never read about his 12th inning double with a man on first to win the game 6 for the Cubs in the 1945 series.

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