Comments on: Best Red Sox player during John Henry’s tenure as owner http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/archives/7415 This and that about baseball stats. Fri, 11 Nov 2011 16:57:02 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.3.2 By: Johnny Twisto http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/archives/7415/comment-page-1#comment-31665 Johnny Twisto Mon, 19 Jul 2010 17:32:58 +0000 http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/?p=7415#comment-31665 <i>average DH is better at his position than the average SS</i> This doesn't make any sense. Yes, WAR accounts for position. The whole point of it is that it accounts for position, and the quality of player who can be found to fill that position. It estimates the difference between SS and DH to be worth over 20 runs. If it were true that every team had a good hitting DH, then being a good hitting DH would not be that valuable. That's not a flaw of WAR, that's a feature. average DH is better at his position than the average SS

This doesn't make any sense.

Yes, WAR accounts for position. The whole point of it is that it accounts for position, and the quality of player who can be found to fill that position. It estimates the difference between SS and DH to be worth over 20 runs. If it were true that every team had a good hitting DH, then being a good hitting DH would not be that valuable. That's not a flaw of WAR, that's a feature.

]]> By: smh http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/archives/7415/comment-page-1#comment-31663 smh Mon, 19 Jul 2010 17:22:19 +0000 http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/?p=7415#comment-31663 <i>So if you have a DH with a WAR of 3.0 and a 2B with a WAR of 3.0, wouldn't the DH's season be more impressive?</i> Depends whether by 'impressive' you're talking about just hitting or about overall value. The DH's hitting line would be better in this case, but according to WAR, the 2B's defensive value was enough to make up the offensive gap. So if you have a DH with a WAR of 3.0 and a 2B with a WAR of 3.0, wouldn't the DH's season be more impressive?

Depends whether by 'impressive' you're talking about just hitting or about overall value. The DH's hitting line would be better in this case, but according to WAR, the 2B's defensive value was enough to make up the offensive gap.

]]> By: John Q http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/archives/7415/comment-page-1#comment-31658 John Q Mon, 19 Jul 2010 16:36:55 +0000 http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/?p=7415#comment-31658 It's interesting I was just looking at Nomar's career and it just hit me how similar it is to Dale Murphy's career. They both had 6 great seasons (5-7 WAR), one average season (2-2.9 WAR), and then 5-8 seasons when they were basically at replacement level. Murphy made 7 all star games, Nomar made 6 and they were both considered during their primes to be future HOF. Here's the comparison: Murphy: Best 6 WAR seasons-38.7 Best 7 WAR seasons-41.6 Career WAR-44.2 If you took the (7 seasons + Career)/2= 42.9 Nomar: Best 6 WAR seasons-40.4 Best 7 WAR seasons-42.5 Career WAR-42.6 If you took the (7 best seasons + Career)/2=42.55 It's interesting I was just looking at Nomar's career and it just hit me how similar it is to Dale Murphy's career. They both had 6 great seasons (5-7 WAR), one average season (2-2.9 WAR), and then 5-8 seasons when they were basically at replacement level. Murphy made 7 all star games, Nomar made 6 and they were both considered during their primes to be future HOF.

Here's the comparison:

Murphy:

Best 6 WAR seasons-38.7
Best 7 WAR seasons-41.6
Career WAR-44.2
If you took the (7 seasons + Career)/2= 42.9

Nomar:

Best 6 WAR seasons-40.4
Best 7 WAR seasons-42.5
Career WAR-42.6
If you took the (7 best seasons + Career)/2=42.55

]]> By: Djibouti http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/archives/7415/comment-page-1#comment-31656 Djibouti Mon, 19 Jul 2010 16:18:48 +0000 http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/?p=7415#comment-31656 Is there something in the WAR formula that accounts for the DH? If not, I imagine there's a natural bias against DHs in that it's hard to be a well above average DH using the metrics of every other position. Since there's no fielding involved, DHs only have batting to analyze. Given that most DHs are good hitters to begin with, the range of the data is probably more limited than with any other position, which would mean that you'd have to be an especially spectacular DH to record a high WAR value. So if you have a DH with a WAR of 3.0 and a 2B with a WAR of 3.0, wouldn't the DH's season be more impressive? Basically what I'm getting at is that Ortiz's 6.0 WAR in '07 while less valuable to the team than Nomar's 6.7 WAR years, was probably a bigger accomplishment given that the average DH is better at his position than the average SS. Is there something in the WAR formula that accounts for the DH? If not, I imagine there's a natural bias against DHs in that it's hard to be a well above average DH using the metrics of every other position. Since there's no fielding involved, DHs only have batting to analyze. Given that most DHs are good hitters to begin with, the range of the data is probably more limited than with any other position, which would mean that you'd have to be an especially spectacular DH to record a high WAR value. So if you have a DH with a WAR of 3.0 and a 2B with a WAR of 3.0, wouldn't the DH's season be more impressive?

Basically what I'm getting at is that Ortiz's 6.0 WAR in '07 while less valuable to the team than Nomar's 6.7 WAR years, was probably a bigger accomplishment given that the average DH is better at his position than the average SS.

]]> By: Michael E Sullivan http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/archives/7415/comment-page-1#comment-31655 Michael E Sullivan Mon, 19 Jul 2010 16:05:51 +0000 http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/?p=7415#comment-31655 I'm not that surprised to see Nomar. I was just looking at his stats the other day when you did the yankees and talking about Jeter, because they came in around the same time and were compared so often in their early years. Nomar is a classic example of injuries or something killing what looked like a HOF career. Before the trade, his bat was about as good as Jeter's, *and* he was a very good fielding SS. Look at his career stats from 1996 (rookie) to 2003. That's 8 seasons and he breaks 40 WAR (5.1 WAR/season, even though it includes 1996+2001 with <100 PAs each.). As of 2003, He's got an OPS+ of 134. He doesn't take many walks but when you bat .323 with a fair bit of power, you don't have to. Fielding, he's a top shortstop. 48 fielding runs above average. That's not on pace to crack Ozzie Smith, or even Ripken, but if had a normal career projectory from there, he'd be starting to 1B or DH within the last couple years, and could easily have made the top 10 list for defensive shortstops, in the 70-80 range. Before his injuries he looked like a surefire hall of famer, now, he's just another guy with a great peak that wasn't quite big enough to get serious consideration. I'm not that surprised to see Nomar. I was just looking at his stats the other day when you did the yankees and talking about Jeter, because they came in around the same time and were compared so often in their early years. Nomar is a classic example of injuries or something killing what looked like a HOF career. Before the trade, his bat was about as good as Jeter's, *and* he was a very good fielding SS. Look at his career stats from 1996 (rookie) to 2003. That's 8 seasons and he breaks 40 WAR (5.1 WAR/season, even though it includes 1996+2001 with <100 PAs each.). As of 2003, He's got an OPS+ of 134. He doesn't take many walks but when you bat .323 with a fair bit of power, you don't have to. Fielding, he's a top shortstop. 48 fielding runs above average. That's not on pace to crack Ozzie Smith, or even Ripken, but if had a normal career projectory from there, he'd be starting to 1B or DH within the last couple years, and could easily have made the top 10 list for defensive shortstops, in the 70-80 range.

Before his injuries he looked like a surefire hall of famer, now, he's just another guy with a great peak that wasn't quite big enough to get serious consideration.

]]> By: Andy http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/archives/7415/comment-page-1#comment-31647 Andy Mon, 19 Jul 2010 14:21:24 +0000 http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/?p=7415#comment-31647 Oh you mean acquired by trade? Yeah I suppose Varitek could go ahead of Beckett and Lowell...that's totally subjective Oh you mean acquired by trade? Yeah I suppose Varitek could go ahead of Beckett and Lowell...that's totally subjective

]]> By: Andy http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/archives/7415/comment-page-1#comment-31645 Andy Mon, 19 Jul 2010 14:20:49 +0000 http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/?p=7415#comment-31645 Varitek is #4 on the first list... Varitek is #4 on the first list...

]]> By: BSK http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/archives/7415/comment-page-1#comment-31644 BSK Mon, 19 Jul 2010 14:19:27 +0000 http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/?p=7415#comment-31644 I'm kinda, sorta surprised no Varitek on the list. Where would he rank? I'm kinda, sorta surprised no Varitek on the list. Where would he rank?

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