Comments on: Worse Than Joba http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/archives/7247 This and that about baseball stats. Tue, 16 Jul 2013 17:01:55 +0000 hourly 1 https://wordpress.org/?v=4.6 By: The Shockingly Sudden Fall of George Sherrill « Mike Scioscia's tragic illness http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/archives/7247/comment-page-1#comment-30718 Wed, 14 Jul 2010 22:38:51 +0000 http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/?p=7247#comment-30718 [...] it was even worse than that. Even the official baseball-reference blog posted a chart which showed his ERA+ to be the second worst in all of baseball among pitchers with [...]

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By: Will S. http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/archives/7247/comment-page-1#comment-30303 Tue, 13 Jul 2010 16:46:20 +0000 http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/?p=7247#comment-30303 My main point isn't that he's been as good as his past years as a reliever (it's pretty clear he hasn't), but that he hasn't been bad. He doesn't have to be 07-08 Joba to be valuable. Those rate statistics imply he's been pretty good, and his BABIP and LOB% imply he's been unlucky. I would expect him to be significantly better in the second half, result-wise. His FIP, xFIP, and tERA are all significantly lower than his ERA.

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By: Evan http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/archives/7247/comment-page-1#comment-30065 Mon, 12 Jul 2010 17:13:43 +0000 http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/?p=7247#comment-30065 Will S. @23,

Looking just at his reliever stats, Chamberlain's BB and SO rate stats are worse than his prior years. Looking at SO and BB rates (SO/BF and BB/BF) because SO/9 and BB/9 are going to be skewed by the high BABiP that he is experiencing.

In 2010 he is striking out 24.39% of batters he faces. As a reliever pre-2010 he struck out 33.33% of the batters he faced.
In 2010 he is walking 8.54% of the batters he faces. As a reliever pre-2010 we walked 8.46% of the batters he faced.

So, looking at relief appearances only, he is walking a nominally greater percentage of batters he faces, but is striking out a significantly lower percentage. His SO/9 numbers this year are being artificially inflated by his failure to get batters out when they put the ball in play.

Note: I didn't deal with his HR data, because he has given up only 4 HR to the 401 BF in relief appearances and I feel the signal-to-noise ratio is a problem here, though I would note that the 2 HR he has given up against 164 BF in relief this year would be higher than previous years.

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By: Will S. http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/archives/7247/comment-page-1#comment-30056 Mon, 12 Jul 2010 16:09:08 +0000 http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/?p=7247#comment-30056 If you mean they're a little low because his peripherals in '09 were less stellar, then yes. They're still not that far off from his marks as a reliever, or at least not far enough off that you would expect him to have a 5.79 ERA. I'd like to use the PI to see if anybody with those kind of peripherals has had as bad a season as he's having.

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By: Steve Lombardi http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/archives/7247/comment-page-1#comment-30049 Mon, 12 Jul 2010 15:45:34 +0000 http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/?p=7247#comment-30049 Will S - can those career marks be off a bit because of his short career and his crazy good stats in 2007 and 2008?

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By: Will S. http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/archives/7247/comment-page-1#comment-30048 Mon, 12 Jul 2010 15:38:04 +0000 http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/?p=7247#comment-30048 Joba is posting a K/9 higher than his career average, a BB/9 lower than his career average, and a HR/9 less than his career average. To say he's been "bad" is misleading, unless you're expecting hitters to keep their .380 BABIP against him, or for his left on base percentage to stay at 58.3%. He hasn't been bad; he's been very, very unlucky.

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By: nightfly http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/archives/7247/comment-page-1#comment-30045 Mon, 12 Jul 2010 15:22:58 +0000 http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/?p=7247#comment-30045 JT - the "Joba Rules" are null and void in any jurisdiction managed by Dusty Baker.

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By: jay destro http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/archives/7247/comment-page-1#comment-30023 Mon, 12 Jul 2010 13:18:45 +0000 http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/?p=7247#comment-30023 joba needs to be more "Street"

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By: Mr. Sparkle http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/archives/7247/comment-page-1#comment-29999 Mon, 12 Jul 2010 08:01:08 +0000 http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/?p=7247#comment-29999 I've seen way too much of Joba this season and I've been begging for them to remove him from the 8th inning slot. My theory is that he has TOO MANY pitches. I have a feeling he might be better off mixing up his two best pitches and concentrating on location, which has been his biggest problem. He doesn't strike me as a thinker so they should just make him a thrower. Basically, when he has dominated in the past, it's been the fastball and slider. He should try making that his full arsenal for a while and see how it pans out.

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By: Johnny Twisto http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/archives/7247/comment-page-1#comment-29975 Mon, 12 Jul 2010 03:24:25 +0000 http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/?p=7247#comment-29975 Moreover, EVERY young pitcher these days is handled with care. The respective "rules" don't get publicized and nobody seems to make such a big deal of it when it's not a Yankee. But I don't think you'll find too many 21-year-olds on any team making lots of 120-pitch starts or throwing 230 IP.

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