Comments on: Is the Home Run Derby bad for baseball? http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/archives/7188 This and that about baseball stats. Tue, 16 Jul 2013 17:01:55 +0000 hourly 1 https://wordpress.org/?v=4.6 By: Rich Baxter http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/archives/7188/comment-page-1#comment-30128 Tue, 13 Jul 2010 00:54:08 +0000 http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/?p=7188#comment-30128 Nice post, I am writing an article tonight as the All Star "Home Run Derby" 2010 is being played. The title is 'Does The Home Run Derby Need Fixing?' - the Derby is a long and drawn out affair, but a fan favorite.
I am going to credit and quote this article and link to it also. Ryan Howard, Albert Puljols, and David Wright, not in a Home Run Derby? Why?

Rich

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By: Johnny Twisto http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/archives/7188/comment-page-1#comment-29648 Fri, 09 Jul 2010 18:55:37 +0000 http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/?p=7188#comment-29648 I haven't read it but apparently Hardball Times tackled this question last year
http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/fantasy/article/do-hitters-decline-after-the-home-run-derby/

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By: Fireworks http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/archives/7188/comment-page-1#comment-29581 Fri, 09 Jul 2010 11:50:58 +0000 http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/?p=7188#comment-29581 Andy you are absolutely right in your conclusion that there is no real good or bad effect to be had by a player participating in the HR Derby, though obviously there can be exceptions. Like you said, the reason guys are asked to participate in the derby is because they have had excellent HR production in the first half, and for many of these guys, it's well above their normal production and likely to drop in the second half.

Personally I've never bought the "the HR Derby messes up guys swings" theory, and the best-cited example people pull out their butts--Abreu--was never a truly formidable HR hitter at any point during his career. He just had a pretty good first-half HR rate, got selected to the derby, went nuts, then had a little bit of a down year in HR production in the second half, which led to people saying "oh it messed up his swing." Nonsense.

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By: Andy http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/archives/7188/comment-page-1#comment-29580 Fri, 09 Jul 2010 11:33:00 +0000 http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/?p=7188#comment-29580 I remember that show. I've actually seen quite a few episodes. Some network--I want to say Nickelodeon but that might be wrong--aired repeats of the show in the 1990s that I watched.

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By: Spartan Bill http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/archives/7188/comment-page-1#comment-29579 Fri, 09 Jul 2010 11:21:05 +0000 http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/?p=7188#comment-29579 Andy

The original was a 30 minute show filmed in the off season at Wrigley Field in Los Angeles, Each show had 2 batters playing "innings". while one competitor hit, the other joined the commentator on the air.

Here is an 8 minute clip, you might find enlightening. Henry Aaron V Duke Snider. It appears to have been filmed after the 1959 season.

Winner got 2,000, loser took home a grand.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Iu7qsP4SW34

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By: Andy http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/archives/7188/comment-page-1#comment-29532 Thu, 08 Jul 2010 23:09:34 +0000 http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/?p=7188#comment-29532 Yeah apparently I got some bad info on Derby history and failed to check it. Weirdly I have no memory of the Derby from back then. It wasn't on TV back then was it?

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By: DJ Young http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/archives/7188/comment-page-1#comment-29530 Thu, 08 Jul 2010 22:50:40 +0000 http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/?p=7188#comment-29530 You say the Derby's inception came in 2000? Tisk tisk, it's been around since 1985

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By: Zeff http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/archives/7188/comment-page-1#comment-29529 Thu, 08 Jul 2010 22:44:50 +0000 http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/?p=7188#comment-29529 It's not bad for baseball. The way it's run is bad for baseball. Simply put, it's boring with a capital F!There's no reason to not simulate it like a baseball game like the old HR derbies. Strikes should count as outs; I can't stand batters taking 30 straight pitches in a row if they choose to do so. Plus the notion of All Stars having to participate in it is silly. Why can't guys like Russell Branyan, Adam Dunn, Mark Reynolds. etc. be in it every year? Guys like that who can just flat out mash should be selected. I'd much rather see someone like Branyan than Susuki.

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By: Joe http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/archives/7188/comment-page-1#comment-29516 Thu, 08 Jul 2010 20:02:54 +0000 http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/?p=7188#comment-29516 Yeah, guys selected for the Derby are more likely to have hit a lot of first half homers, so are more likely to naturally hit less in the second half. I think whatever effect there might be is in guys' heads. If you keep hitting homers in the second half, there's no effect. If you don't, it's easy to blame the Derby. It becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy - if you think there's an effect, then there is.

One note, Andy, the Home Run Derby didn't start in 2000, it started in 1985. Maybe it took its current form in 2000, but it's been around a lot longer than that.

Also, Duke, I-Rod was in the 2005 Derby because the game was in Detroit, and at the time, he was the Tigers big star.

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By: WilsonC http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/archives/7188/comment-page-1#comment-29507 Thu, 08 Jul 2010 19:09:33 +0000 http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/?p=7188#comment-29507 It's common sense that there should be some second half regression, since it's generally guys with big first halves that are chosen. I'm sure that if you were to build a control group of HR derby "snubs" - players who hit a lot of first half HR without participating in the derby - you'd see the same effect, where the true power hitters would usually maintain high power rates and the more ordinary power guys would usually regress.

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