Comments on: Winning With A Run http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/archives/712 This and that about baseball stats. Fri, 11 Nov 2011 16:57:02 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.3.2 By: spartanbill http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/archives/712/comment-page-1#comment-5024 spartanbill Tue, 08 Jul 2008 18:10:58 +0000 http://www.baseball-reference.com/sotd/?p=712#comment-5024 I gotta disagree with you Andy, but I am an Angels fan, and I hope this is coming head my gut and not my heart. I have watched pretty mcuh every inning this year, and this is not a team that is especially lucky. They put together big innings, but they dont blow leads either. A quick look at their roster shows that other than Santana, no one is having a career year. Sure Saunders has a gaudy W-L, but then he always has had that. He was 15-8 over two seasons of up and down the alt Lake shuttle before getting a reular role this year. Garland and Weaver are good enough that they woiuld be 2-3 starters in many rotations and should continue to eat innings. Arredondo is the only rookie in a key role, and in spite of K-Rod's super save total he really isn't pritvhing better than before, just in more situations. No one on the offense has a OPS= near their career best at thsi point, and other than Kotchman, everyone of them can be called a disappointment. Yet this team has shown they can score runs outside the OPS. i don't think there is any reason to believe their skill in forcing errors, hitting behind the runner, taking the extra base on a single or challenging a drawn in infield are flukes. I realize all the historical evidence backs up what you are saying, yet I believe this team has it in them to continue on pace to the 98 wins they currently project at. They don't have the personality of the 69 Mets, but when you compare thier strengths and weaknesses--- ie great pitching up and down the roster, good road W-L, great record in 1 run games, below average yet functional offense; et al these teams are quite similar. And according to the Pythaagorean theorem the Mets were +7 also. They should have finished behind the Cubs. I gotta disagree with you Andy, but I am an Angels fan, and I hope this is coming head my gut and not my heart.

I have watched pretty mcuh every inning this year, and this is not a team that is especially lucky. They put together big innings, but they dont blow leads either. A quick look at their roster shows that other than Santana, no one is having a career year.

Sure Saunders has a gaudy W-L, but then he always has had that. He was 15-8 over two seasons of up and down the alt Lake shuttle before getting a reular role this year. Garland and Weaver are good enough that they woiuld be 2-3 starters in many rotations and should continue to eat innings.

Arredondo is the only rookie in a key role, and in spite of K-Rod's super save total he really isn't pritvhing better than before, just in more situations.

No one on the offense has a OPS= near their career best at thsi point, and other than Kotchman, everyone of them can be called a disappointment. Yet this team has shown they can score runs outside the OPS. i don't think there is any reason to believe their skill in forcing errors, hitting behind the runner, taking the extra base on a single or challenging a drawn in infield are flukes.

I realize all the historical evidence backs up what you are saying, yet I believe this team has it in them to continue on pace to the 98 wins they currently project at.

They don't have the personality of the 69 Mets, but when you compare thier strengths and weaknesses--- ie great pitching up and down the roster, good road W-L, great record in 1 run games, below average yet functional offense; et al these teams are quite similar.

And according to the Pythaagorean theorem the Mets were +7 also. They should have finished behind the Cubs.

]]> By: Andy http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/archives/712/comment-page-1#comment-5023 Andy Tue, 08 Jul 2008 14:58:19 +0000 http://www.baseball-reference.com/sotd/?p=712#comment-5023 I suspect the Angels will be in for a fall in the second half. It's amazing how well James' Pythagorean theory holds. Rarely does a single team deviate from expected W-L record by more than 3-4 games in any given year. Such anomalies are very hard to maintain over 162 games. I think the best the Angels can hope for is that they return to just expected behavior but maintain the lead they built in the first half. My guess is that they are under .500 in the second half and finish 5 to 10 games over .500 for the year, out of the playoffs. I suspect the Angels will be in for a fall in the second half. It's amazing how well James' Pythagorean theory holds. Rarely does a single team deviate from expected W-L record by more than 3-4 games in any given year. Such anomalies are very hard to maintain over 162 games. I think the best the Angels can hope for is that they return to just expected behavior but maintain the lead they built in the first half. My guess is that they are under .500 in the second half and finish 5 to 10 games over .500 for the year, out of the playoffs.

]]> By: spartanbill http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/archives/712/comment-page-1#comment-5007 spartanbill Mon, 07 Jul 2008 20:39:24 +0000 http://www.baseball-reference.com/sotd/?p=712#comment-5007 The Angels have all sorts of anomalies this year. K-Rod's 34 Saves are largely due to the Angels winning more than their share of close games. Also they have turned the Pythagorean theory upside down. They have a 6 game lead in the real standings, but according to Pythagoras and Bill James; they should be 5 games BEHIND the A's. Thar's a swing of 11 games. They also are upside down on their home road splits being 27-15 on the road and only 26-20 at home. They are also 16-5 vs Lefties. Other anomalies: they are getting their best production from the Number 6 spot of the order, and much of their worst from spots 2 and 3. Figgins has only 9 RBI in 52 leadoff starts, and they havent thrown out anyone out on a SB attempt since June 18th. If Anderson, Hunter, and Vlad have 2nd halfs anywhere near what they did last season, this team will be unstoppable. The Angels have all sorts of anomalies this year. K-Rod's 34 Saves are largely due to the Angels winning more than their share of close games.

Also they have turned the Pythagorean theory upside down. They have a 6 game lead in the real standings, but according to Pythagoras and Bill James; they should be 5 games BEHIND the A's.

Thar's a swing of 11 games.

They also are upside down on their home road splits being 27-15 on the road and only 26-20 at home. They are also 16-5 vs Lefties.

Other anomalies: they are getting their best production from the Number 6 spot of the order, and much of their worst from spots 2 and 3. Figgins has only 9 RBI in 52 leadoff starts, and they havent thrown out anyone out on a SB attempt since June 18th.

If Anderson, Hunter, and Vlad have 2nd halfs anywhere near what they did last season, this team will be unstoppable.

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