Comments on: Both pitchers go the distance

By: Jim

Jim — Mon, 14 Jun 2010 16:05:26 +0000

I agree, a manager doesn't have to "manage" if he doesn't have to make a crucial decision to take is pitcher out for a batter in 6th inning of a 1-0 game

By: Johnny Twisto

Johnny Twisto — Sun, 13 Jun 2010 22:45:02 +0000

I'd say that's a detriment of the DH.

By: groundball

groundball — Sun, 13 Jun 2010 22:35:50 +0000

Indeed, that is a benefit to the DH, not having to juggle having to PH for a pitcher.

By: Frank Clingenpeel

Frank Clingenpeel — Sun, 13 Jun 2010 16:21:57 +0000

I believe that the DH variable is more significant. A manager would have more of a tendency to pull a pitcher in a close game if he comes top bat, especially with the game on the line.

By: Johnny Twisto

Johnny Twisto — Sun, 13 Jun 2010 16:16:08 +0000

John, do you have evidence that aces face aces more often? These days, teams hew pretty close to a set rotation, and once teams start having off-days, I think the way any two rotations match up is random. Occasionally a manager may juggle the rotation to have a SP face or avoid a particular team, but I don't think the opposing team's likely SP comes into play much.

By: Andy

Andy — Sun, 13 Jun 2010 14:40:41 +0000

Good detective work, folks. Thanks.

By: Raphy

Raphy — Sun, 13 Jun 2010 13:50:55 +0000

Here is a quick and dirty chart with games under 8 complete innings removed. Double complete games of 8 or more innings occur at a lower rate than would be expected simply by calculating the odds based on regular complete game rates. You can see this by comparing the last 2 columns in the table. I think we can conclude that the overall spike in double complete games is solely attributable to rain-shortened games.

	Total	CG	Double CG	CG/Total	(CG/Total)^2	DoubleCG/Total
Total Games 2006-2010	21304	613	21	0.028773939	0.00082794	0.00098573
Games with Team IP >=8	21242	587	15	0.027633933	0.000763634	0.000706148
Games with Team IP <8	62	26	6	0.419354839	0.175858481	0.096774194

By: Raphy

Raphy — Sun, 13 Jun 2010 13:34:40 +0000

My thoughts were the same as Brett's. Of those 21 double CG only 15 of them involved both pitchers throwing at least 8 innings ( http://bbref.com/pi/shareit/9CrPr ). My guess is that if you remove rain shortened games from the equation the frequency of double complete games will fall in line with the number you would expect.

By: John

John — Sun, 13 Jun 2010 13:21:11 +0000

Also, teams often work their rotations so that aces face aces. I'd be interested to see how often the #1 or 2 starter pitches a CG compared with the 4 or 5, and then look at those games again to see if they skew towards the front of the rotation.

By: Brett

Brett — Sun, 13 Jun 2010 13:18:07 +0000

....and some of these are rain-shortened games