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Which Daisuke will show up tonight?

Posted by Andy on June 2, 2010

Daisuke Matsuzaka pitches for the Red Sox tonight and everybody's wondering which guy will show up.

Will it be the guy who 1-hit the Phillies two starts ago or the guy who walked 8 in 4.2 innings the last time out?

Will it be the guy who had 9 K's, no walks, and 3 hits in 7 innings four starts ago or the guy who allowed 7 runs on 9 hits three starts ago?

Look at the game scores for all 79 of Matsuzaka's starts:

Rk Date Tm Opp Rslt App,Dec IP H R ER BB SO HR Pit Str GSc
1 2008-08-29 BOS CHW W 8-0 GS-8 ,W 8.0 2 0 0 2 7 0 104 65 83
2 2007-07-03 BOS TBD W 4-1 GS-8 ,W 8.0 4 0 0 1 9 0 122 84 82
3 2010-05-22 BOS PHI W 5-0 GS-8 ,W 8.0 1 0 0 4 5 0 112 73 81
4 2007-06-27 BOS SEA L 1-2 GS-8 8.0 3 1 1 1 8 0 113 77 79
5 2008-09-21 BOS TOR W 3-0 GS-7 ,W 7.0 2 0 0 2 6 0 109 69 77
6 2010-05-11 BOS TOR W 6-1 GS-7 ,W 7.0 3 1 1 0 9 0 106 71 76
7 2007-06-16 BOS SFG W 1-0 GS-7 ,W 7.0 3 0 0 3 8 0 112 66 76
8 2007-05-14 BOS DET W 7-1 CG 9 ,W 9.0 6 1 1 0 5 1 124 86 76
9 2008-04-30 BOS TOR W 2-1 GS-7 7.0 2 0 0 2 4 0 111 69 75
10 2008-04-01 BOS OAK W 2-1 GS-7 ,W 6.2 2 1 1 0 9 1 96 61 75
11 2008-08-09 BOS CHW W 6-2 GS-8 ,W 8.0 4 1 1 3 4 0 106 65 71
12 2007-07-24 BOS CLE W 1-0 GS-7 ,W 7.0 4 0 0 3 5 0 99 60 71
13 2007-04-05 BOS KCR W 4-1 GS-7 ,W 7.0 6 1 1 1 10 1 108 74 70
14 2008-04-08 BOS DET W 5-0 GS-7 ,W 6.2 4 0 0 4 7 0 108 62 69
15 2009-09-15 BOS LAA W 4-1 GS-6 ,W 6.0 3 0 0 3 5 0 93 52 68
16 2008-07-07 BOS MIN W 1-0 GS-8 7.1 6 0 0 3 5 0 108 71 68
17 2007-09-28 BOS MIN W 5-2 GS-8 ,W 8.0 6 2 2 2 8 1 119 77 68
18 2007-08-10 BOS BAL L 5-6 GS-7 7.0 4 1 1 4 7 0 113 71 68
19 2007-05-09 BOS TOR W 9-3 GS-7 ,W 7.0 5 1 1 3 8 1 108 70 68
20 2008-07-13 BOS BAL W 2-1 GS-6 ,W 6.0 4 0 0 5 7 0 115 68 66
21 2008-08-14 BOS TEX W 10-0 GS-7 ,W 7.0 6 0 0 5 5 0 115 66 65
22 2007-08-04 BOS SEA W 4-3 GS-7 ,W 7.0 6 2 2 2 10 2 113 76 65
23 2007-04-17 BOS TOR L 1-2 GS-6 ,L 6.0 3 2 2 3 10 0 105 68 65
24 2008-06-27 BOS HOU W 6-1 GS-5 ,W 5.0 2 0 0 3 4 0 87 54 64
25 2007-08-22 BOS TBD L 1-2 GS-6 ,L 6.0 2 2 2 4 8 1 111 67 64
Rk Date Tm Opp Rslt App,Dec IP H R ER BB SO HR Pit Str GSc
26 2008-07-22 BOS SEA W 4-2 GS-8 ,W 7.1 5 2 2 3 6 0 99 61 63
27 2008-09-15 BOS TBR W 13-5 GS-5 ,W 5.0 3 1 1 2 7 1 101 62 62
28 2008-08-03 BOS OAK W 5-2 GS-6 ,W 6.0 4 2 2 2 8 1 105 68 62
29 2007-06-22 BOS SDP W 2-1 GS-6 ,W 6.0 5 1 1 5 9 0 126 81 62
30 2008-05-10 BOS MIN W 5-2 GS-7 ,W 7.0 6 2 2 3 7 0 96 63 61
31 2007-06-10 BOS ARI L 1-5 GS-6 ,L 6.0 4 2 2 4 9 0 120 78 61
32 2007-06-05 BOS OAK L 0-2 GS-7 ,L 7.0 7 2 2 2 8 1 129 77 61
33 2008-05-17 (1) BOS MIL W 5-3 GS-7 ,W 6.2 7 2 0 2 6 1 103 66 60
34 2009-09-26 BOS NYY L 0-3 GS-7 ,L 7.0 6 1 1 5 3 1 115 65 59
35 2008-07-02 BOS TBR L 6-7 GS-5 5.0 2 1 1 5 5 0 101 55 59
36 2009-10-02 BOS CLE W 6-2 GS-6 ,W 6.0 5 2 2 3 7 0 104 66 58
37 2007-05-19 (1) BOS ATL W 13-3 GS-8 ,W 8.0 9 3 3 0 6 1 103 72 58
38 2008-03-25 BOS OAK W 6-5 GS-5 5.0 2 2 2 5 6 1 95 51 56
39 2007-09-14 BOS NYY L 7-8 GS-6 5.2 4 2 2 5 7 0 120 64 55
40 2009-06-02 BOS DET W 5-1 GS-5 ,W 5.0 6 1 1 3 6 0 96 61 54
41 2007-07-29 BOS TBD L 2-5 GS-7 ,L 6.1 8 2 2 1 6 1 113 70 54
42 2008-09-03 BOS BAL W 5-4 GS-6 6.0 4 4 3 4 7 0 112 73 53
43 2008-05-05 BOS DET W 6-3 GS-5 ,W 5.0 2 1 1 8 1 0 109 60 52
44 2007-04-11 BOS SEA L 0-3 GS-7 ,L 7.0 8 3 3 1 4 0 103 64 52
45 2007-07-19 BOS CHW L 2-4 GS-5 ,L 5.0 2 3 3 6 6 0 109 63 51
46 2007-04-27 BOS NYY W 11-4 GS-6 ,W 6.0 5 4 4 4 7 0 117 71 49
47 2008-08-19 BOS BAL W 7-2 GS-5 ,W 5.0 6 2 2 5 6 0 105 60 48
48 2008-04-18 BOS TEX W 11-3 GS-6 ,W 5.1 5 3 3 2 4 1 101 62 48
49 2008-05-27 BOS SEA L 3-4 GS-4 4.0 4 3 2 0 2 0 65 46 46
50 2008-05-22 BOS KCR W 11-8 GS-6 ,W 5.2 6 3 3 6 7 0 118 67 46
Rk Date Tm Opp Rslt App,Dec IP H R ER BB SO HR Pit Str GSc
51 2007-09-22 BOS TBD W 8-6 GS-7 6.2 6 5 5 3 7 1 115 73 46
52 2008-09-28 (1) BOS NYY L 2-6 GS-4 ,L 4.0 4 3 3 2 5 1 73 46 45
53 2009-09-20 BOS BAL W 9-3 GS-6 ,W 5.1 8 3 3 1 5 1 110 73 44
54 2009-05-22 BOS NYM L 3-5 GS-5 ,L 5.0 5 4 4 2 4 1 80 50 43
55 2008-08-24 BOS TOR W 6-5 GS-6 6.0 8 5 5 1 8 2 105 66 43
56 2007-04-22 BOS NYY W 7-6 GS-7 ,W 7.0 8 6 6 1 7 1 108 74 43
57 2010-05-27 BOS KCR L 3-4 GS-5 ,L 4.2 2 3 3 8 1 0 112 60 41
58 2009-05-27 BOS MIN L 2-4 GS-5 ,L 5.0 9 3 3 3 6 0 102 63 40
59 2008-09-09 BOS TBR L 4-5 GS-5 5.0 8 3 3 4 5 0 102 61 40
60 2007-08-28 BOS NYY L 3-5 GS-7 ,L 6.1 6 5 5 3 2 2 110 62 40
61 2010-05-06 BOS LAA W 11-6 GS-6 ,W 5.1 5 5 5 3 3 0 92 58 38
62 2007-07-14 BOS TOR W 9-4 GS-6 ,W 6.0 9 4 4 2 2 2 110 69 38
63 2009-06-07 BOS TEX L 3-6 GS-6 ,L 5.2 10 5 5 0 8 1 102 71 37
64 2008-04-13 BOS NYY W 8-5 GS-5 ,W 5.0 5 4 4 6 2 0 116 62 37
65 2009-04-09 BOS TBR L 3-4 GS-6 ,L 5.1 9 4 4 3 5 3 100 60 36
66 2007-05-25 BOS TEX W 10-6 GS-5 ,W 5.0 7 5 5 3 6 2 85 52 36
67 2009-06-13 BOS PHI W 11-6 GS-4 4.0 7 4 4 1 3 2 91 61 34
68 2007-08-15 BOS TBD L 5-6 GS-6 ,L 6.0 8 6 6 3 5 0 101 62 34
69 2008-07-28 BOS LAA L 5-7 GS-5 ,L 5.0 7 6 6 2 3 2 91 59 30
70 2007-07-08 BOS DET L 5-6 GS-5 ,L 5.0 10 6 6 1 4 3 90 58 26
71 2010-05-01 BOS BAL L 9-12 GS-5 ,L 4.2 7 7 6 3 4 2 95 57 25
72 2007-05-30 BOS CLE L 4-8 GS-6 ,L 5.2 12 6 6 0 4 1 106 73 25
73 2007-05-03 BOS SEA W 8-7 GS-5 5.0 5 7 7 5 1 0 96 56 25
74 2007-09-03 BOS TOR W 13-10 GS-6 ,W 5.1 10 7 7 1 3 1 98 69 22
75 2009-04-14 BOS OAK L 5-6 GS-1 1.0 5 5 5 2 0 0 43 22 21
Rk Date Tm Opp Rslt App,Dec IP H R ER BB SO HR Pit Str GSc
76 2009-06-19 BOS ATL L 2-8 GS-4 ,L 4.0 8 6 6 4 2 1 67 39 20
77 2010-05-17 BOS NYY L 9-11 GS-5 4.2 9 7 7 3 3 0 105 63 18
78 2007-09-08 BOS BAL L 5-11 GS-3 ,L 2.2 6 8 8 3 2 2 72 44 13
79 2008-06-21 BOS STL L 3-9 GS-1 ,L 1.0 6 7 7 3 1 1 48 24 11
Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 6/2/2010.

His most recent start wasn't all that bad, near the middle of the pack at #57 overall. The start before that was #3 all time. Before that it was his 3rd-worst at #77. Before that he tied for his 6th best. Before that he had two lousy starts at #71 and #61.

This guy is all over the place, and that's troublesome. I would think that Terry Francona would rather know for sure if Daisuke were going to pitch only 5 innings. that way he could have Tim Wakefield ready all the time. The fact that he can throw lots of stinkers with the occasional gem must be infuriating for Red Sox management and fans.

This entry was posted on Wednesday, June 2nd, 2010 at 9:01 am and is filed under Game Finders. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. Both comments and pings are currently closed.

5 Responses to “Which Daisuke will show up tonight?”

  1. My guess is he will lower his walks but give up a ton of hits to the free-swinging A's

  2. My guess is that the A's are just the kind of team that Dice-K does best against -- the type whose batters thinks that the terms "strike zone" and "accuracy" should never be used in the same breath.

  3. Johnny Twisto Says:

    I looked at two other pitchers with a similar number of career starts. Matsuzaka has an average game score of 52.3 with a standard deviation of 17.9. Jair Jurrjens has an avg GS of 53.5 with a standard deviation of 14.5. John Lannan has an avg GS of 49.1 with a standard deviation of 16.0. So if I'm interpreting that correctly, Matsuzaka does indeed have wider range of outcomes. (Statisticians, please inform me if I've misused standard deviation.) But perhaps some of that is because he is more of a strikeout pitcher than Jurrjens and Lannan, and Ks are an element of Game Score.

  4. And they all cost $100 million, right?

  5. [...] ranks Matsuzaka’s 79 major league starts by Game Score. His six 2010 starts are ranked: 71, 61, 6, [...]