Comments on: Roy Halladay’s perfect game http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/archives/6450 This and that about baseball stats. Tue, 16 Jul 2013 17:01:55 +0000 hourly 1 https://wordpress.org/?v=4.6 By: Crashburn Alley » Blog Archive » LOL: Lots of Links http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/archives/6450/comment-page-1#comment-22515 Mon, 31 May 2010 14:02:07 +0000 http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/?p=6450#comment-22515 [...] Baseball Reference (@baseball_ref) blog uses game score to rank Roy Halladay’s perfect [...]

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By: Andy http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/archives/6450/comment-page-1#comment-22493 Mon, 31 May 2010 10:20:26 +0000 http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/?p=6450#comment-22493 Charlie Hayes made a lot of errors at third base in the minors and his first seaon in the bigs with the Phillies after coming over from the Gianta in the Steve Bedrosian trade. Then by his second year with the Phillies he got a lot better at third. That year I had a chance to talk to him face to face and he said that in the Giants' minor-league system he was blocked at third by Matt Williams and didn't get a lot of reps there. He said he didn't play a lot of third until his trade to Philly. I haven't thought about this conversation in a long time--never thought to check the data on this.

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By: Roy Halladay perfect game links « Caught Looking http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/archives/6450/comment-page-1#comment-22479 Mon, 31 May 2010 04:13:15 +0000 http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/?p=6450#comment-22479 [...] put together a links post without the great insight from the Baseball-Reference Blog. Their post focuses on some of the overall game scores from Halladay’s career and the other perfect [...]

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By: Johnny Twisto http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/archives/6450/comment-page-1#comment-22478 Mon, 31 May 2010 04:13:08 +0000 http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/?p=6450#comment-22478 I think the first time I heard of Charlie Hayes was a blurb in the Sporting News about how he made 3 errors in one inning. Now my primary memory is his catching the foul ball to win the '96 Series. (And I didn't remember until looking at his page just now that he only came to the Yanks at the end of August. I knew Boggs was the primary 3B that season, but somehow I thought Hayes was always around somehow in the background.)

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By: DoubleDiamond http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/archives/6450/comment-page-1#comment-22466 Mon, 31 May 2010 03:04:26 +0000 http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/?p=6450#comment-22466 In fact, the Phillies had one of those games with just one baserunner - In Terry Mulholland's no-hitter in 1990, Rick Parker, who had been part of the trade in which the Phillies had acquired Mulholland, reached on an error by Charlie Hayes, who had also been part of that trade! Parker was then erased in a double play. So Mulholland only faced the minimum number of batters.

I remember listening to the Phillies game on the car radio the night that Randy Johnson pitched his perfect game against Atlanta. The Phillies announcer mentioned that Randy Johnson had taken a no-hitter into the ninth. A few minutes later, he said that the game was over, and the no-hitter was preserved. He then started reading the stats, including no runs, no hits, no walks. As soon as I heard "no walks", my immediate reaction was, "OK, who made the error?" I figured that if it were a perfect game, they would have said so already. But then the announcer (possibly Chris Wheeler, definitely not Harry Kalas) got the additional information that it was a perfect game.

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By: Heureusement, ici, c'est le Blog! » Blog Archive » Roy Halladay’s Perfect Game http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/archives/6450/comment-page-1#comment-22463 Mon, 31 May 2010 02:49:34 +0000 http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/?p=6450#comment-22463 [...] at Baseball-Reference.com has an interesting blog entry about Doc’s perfect game. Roy Halladay was 0-3 in the game with two strikeouts, threw 115 [...]

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By: Guy http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/archives/6450/comment-page-1#comment-22453 Mon, 31 May 2010 02:03:42 +0000 http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/?p=6450#comment-22453 It's basically a function of the K:BB ratio. It was notably higher in the 60s, 80s, 90s, and 00s than in the rest of baseball history. And that's when most of the perfect games occur.

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By: Martin Monkman http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/archives/6450/comment-page-1#comment-22422 Sun, 30 May 2010 22:02:19 +0000 http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/?p=6450#comment-22422 The probability of two perfect games in a single season is running around 3%. (This is a classic Poisson distribution problem.) To calculate this, I used "the expansion era" from 1961 to the present, when there were 14 perfect games in 50 seasons (if include the pre-expansion era, the rate was nearly half that, but something changed around then [Don Larsen's 1956 World Series game was the first perfect game since 1922]). The rest of the probability curve is 76% for a season free of perfect games, and 21% for one perfect game in the season. The odds of a 3 perfect game season is 0.3%, and so on with ever dwindling probabilities the higher we go.

Thus we could expect 2 perfect games between 1 and 2 seasons every 50 seasons, so this year's 2 perfect games isn't much of an anomaly at all.

As other posters have noted the number of games per season has changed as a function of both games per team and the number of teams. Thus it would be possible to be more precise by using the "game" as the unit of frequency -- but the probabilities wouldn't shift dramatically.

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By: Johnny Twisto http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/archives/6450/comment-page-1#comment-22416 Sun, 30 May 2010 21:09:07 +0000 http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/?p=6450#comment-22416 whoops, only the "think" was supposed to be emphasized there.

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By: Johnny Twisto http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/archives/6450/comment-page-1#comment-22407 Sun, 30 May 2010 20:14:43 +0000 http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/?p=6450#comment-22407 Bryan, I think you are generally correct. There are often extreme performances in expansion years (one reason I always laugh at the notion that Maris's 61 HR are more "real" than the recent 60-HR seasons). But those effects are mostly washed out (over time) by the increased population from which talent is being selected.

There are nearly twice as many teams as there were in 1940, but the U.S. population has more than doubled in that time, plus blacks are now allowed to play, plus there is a ton of talent from Latin America, plus more players coming from Canada, and now from East Asia, and slowly starting to increase in the rest of the world as well. (Of course, you also need to control for the fact that baseball may not be as high on the list of sports to play by young U.S. athletes as it was in 1940.)

Anyway, 12 years post-expansion, I don't think that is a cause of the recent run of perfect games.

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