Comments on: Playoff predictions at the quarter-pole

By: Sunday Links (30 May 10) – Ducksnorts

Sunday Links (30 May 10) – Ducksnorts — Sun, 30 May 2010 14:23:50 +0000

[...] Playoff predictions at the quarter-pole (Baseball-Reference). Andy has the Padres as the favorites to win the National League West. On another note, Sean has added photos to B-R, which is very cool. [...]

By: Baseball-Reference Blog » Blog Archive » The most important games all year?

Thu, 27 May 2010 17:36:45 +0000

[...] caught a lot of flak for my predictions in the AL [...]

By: BCC

BCC — Thu, 27 May 2010 15:40:01 +0000

JC- Thanks. I knew a bit about PECOTA, but wasn't aware of its use in this form. Thanks.

By: JohnnyChance

JohnnyChance — Thu, 27 May 2010 02:57:28 +0000

BCC: I think what you are looking for is PECOTA. And yes, it is a project. Luckily someone has done the work for us! There are 3 versions, with different adjustments for different things, calculated by people with more knowledge and time than me. You can see PECOTA's playoff predictions on baseballprospectus.com (http://www.baseballprospectus.com/statistics/ps_odds.php)

Here are the sox's chances of winning the division/wild card (as of the morning of May 26th, before tonights games).
PECOTA: 13.14%/20.5%
PECOTA-Adjusted: 6.61%/28.5%
PECOTA-Elo Adjusted: 12.61%/23.03%

A longshot, no, but the odds have the Yanks (and Rays) ahead of them. Sox do fare better in these predictions than the Bluejays though. Orioles? 0.0010 chance of winning the division.

By: Jacques Strappe

Jacques Strappe — Thu, 27 May 2010 01:48:53 +0000

Bad timing--Tampa Bay is in the process of getting swept at home by Boston as you say there's no chance they'll be challenged for the division. Makes me wonder if the Angels and the Brewers have a shot after all!

By: Rich

Rich — Wed, 26 May 2010 21:11:02 +0000

I think you overrate the Rays. They're due for a crash and burn in the second half. Maybe they'll have such a lead by then that it won't matter but consider this: They have a team ERA+ of 146! That's just not sustainable.

By: Evan

Evan — Wed, 26 May 2010 19:57:54 +0000

Regarding Strasburg's innings this year, I have seen it reported (I think by Jon Heyman) that there is an informal agreement between the team and Strasburg/Boras not to pitch him more than 100 innings in the majors this year.

By: Johnny Twisto

Johnny Twisto — Wed, 26 May 2010 18:59:17 +0000

Last season Strasburg threw 109 IP in college and another 19 in the AZ fall league, total of 128. Let's say DC might not want him to go over 160 this year (I don't know if they've publicized a limit). He's thrown 45 IP in the minors thus far, one more start puts him at ~51. If his first MLB start is 6/4, and he starts every 5 games, he gets about 21 starts. At 6 IP/start he's at 126 IP, or about 177 IP total, not including potential postseason. What do you do? I hate giving up on a potential playoff push because you're trying to preserve a future that may never come. And I think pitchers have been far too babied, with little evidence of any reduction in injuries. At the same time, there is compelling evidence that pitchers worked hard at a young age do burn out quick. Is 177 IP hard work? Maybe not, but it is a big jump over last year (and probably over any year of his life), and it makes sense that this could cause problems. Maybe you put him in the bullpen. Of course there's a lot of people who will say the "jarring" transition from starting to relieving will cause injury too.

By: Djibouti

Djibouti — Wed, 26 May 2010 17:27:08 +0000

The Nats are in a precarious situation. Ideally they'd like to bring Strasburg up in early June (next week?) and shut him down late August/early September. This would work great if this was your average Nats team that was 20 games out in August. But what do they do if they're still in the hunt in September and Strasburg is pitching lights out? Shut him down and say "sorry fans, we'll get 'em next year" or ride him all the way into October and risk blowing out his arm and still not making the playoffs?

By: Austyn

Austyn — Wed, 26 May 2010 16:23:34 +0000

I still think my Royals have a shot! Okay maybe a very very (very) slim shot lol