Comments on: Are the Red Sox toast? http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/archives/6127 This and that about baseball stats. Tue, 16 Jul 2013 17:01:55 +0000 hourly 1 https://wordpress.org/?v=4.6 By: Baseball-Reference Blog » Blog Archive » Run scoring per game (plus: Red Sox Valley) http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/archives/6127/comment-page-1#comment-21297 Mon, 24 May 2010 17:44:17 +0000 http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/?p=6127#comment-21297 [...] you recall, a little while ago I noted how the Red Sox tended to score a bunch of runs or very fun runs. This graph really shows that with the huge dip at 4 and 5 runs. They are outpacing the rest of the [...]

]]>
By: rico petrocelli http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/archives/6127/comment-page-1#comment-19501 Wed, 19 May 2010 01:03:34 +0000 http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/?p=6127#comment-19501 Tell me if I am wrong. They have to go 76-47 to get to 95 wins. 618 ball. Hard but doable. They have doen it 7/8 years

Digging yourself out of the hole....With two outfielders out and Ortiz until May flagging and the now-standard crappy April from Lester-Beckett, it'sunderstandable why they are at 500. That's the hole.

I was there last night. The comeback was all heart. They whomped 9-2 after the first. They doused redhotHughes. The Youkilis homer was a crusher. Wakefield was great. Papel superbombed but that is a relative rarity.

600 ball --

]]>
By: Arom http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/archives/6127/comment-page-1#comment-19482 Tue, 18 May 2010 22:17:22 +0000 http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/?p=6127#comment-19482 The pitching staff has woefully underperformed, so you have to believe that it'll come back to some sort of decency, even if it's worse than people expected at the beginning of the year. I think they'll finish with about 85-90 wins, pretty good but not enough in the AL East

]]>
By: JDV http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/archives/6127/comment-page-1#comment-19460 Tue, 18 May 2010 20:23:00 +0000 http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/?p=6127#comment-19460 I can't bring myself to concede yet that my Orioles won't make the playoffs, so that means everyone is still in it.

]]>
By: MikeD http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/archives/6127/comment-page-1#comment-19431 Tue, 18 May 2010 19:08:15 +0000 http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/?p=6127#comment-19431 Their pitching has not been consistent and their run-scoring depends pretty heavily on hitting HRs. That will lead to periods when they are just not going to score. That type of team will have a hard time overcoming both the Yankees and the Rays. Things should improve once their two OFers are back, and I've got to believe their pitching will improve, but even if that all happens, they will still have to out play all the teams in front of them, and that's going to be very difficult. For example, the Yankees seem to keep holding their own of late even with all their injuries, which means they might actually play better, not worse in the coming months.

]]>
By: Johnny Twisto http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/archives/6127/comment-page-1#comment-19429 Tue, 18 May 2010 18:47:09 +0000 http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/?p=6127#comment-19429 Actually, this might be it: The batting split for "balls not in play." That will miss inside-the-park HR (there's been one in the AL this year), but no big deal. So, unless this split is picking up something that's not occurring to me, there have been 861 runs scored on HR in the AL this year, 35.9% of all runs. Boston has scored 43.3% of its runs on HR. Not sure how that ranks but it's obviously near the top. So yes, it seems to me that their "boom-and-bust" offense may continue. But, it's better to be inconsistently scoring a lot of runs, as they are, than inconsistently scoring few runs.

]]>
By: Johnny Twisto http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/archives/6127/comment-page-1#comment-19427 Tue, 18 May 2010 18:42:22 +0000 http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/?p=6127#comment-19427 On telecasts you often see something like "The Red Sox have scored X% of their runs this season via the home run." I think the league average is usually somewhere around 40%. So it's not necessarily if you hit a lot of HR (obviously HR are always good), but if the % of total runs scored off of HR is very high, your team might not score as consistently.

However...I can't figure out if we can calculate that % from the stats on B-R. I assume it's possible but I'm not seeing it.

]]>
By: BCC http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/archives/6127/comment-page-1#comment-19412 Tue, 18 May 2010 17:42:07 +0000 http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/?p=6127#comment-19412 In the AL, they are 2nd in HR, 3rd in OPS+, 4th in OBP.

So, they are fairly dependent on the longball.

This was supposed to be a run prevention team; so much for that theory.

]]>
By: Johnny Twisto http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/archives/6127/comment-page-1#comment-19409 Tue, 18 May 2010 17:11:40 +0000 http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/?p=6127#comment-19409 "And there's no reason to expect their run distribution to remain so irregular that I can think of."

I think teams that are more reliant on HR tend to be less consistent in scoring. But I'm too lazy to check if the Sox fall under that category.

]]>
By: Andy http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/archives/6127/comment-page-1#comment-19408 Tue, 18 May 2010 17:10:16 +0000 http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/?p=6127#comment-19408 DavidRF, your criticism of too much NYY/BOS is a valid one. We (the bloggers) are in the process of rectifying that by bringing in some new content streams for other teams but it still may take a little while.

I myself have been dealing with some work issues and haven't had time to do as much research as usual.

]]>