Baseball Reference Blog

I mentioned this site last week. Here are some of the interesting things you can learn from there, all based on their own simulations:

• When the season started, they gave the Red Sox a 42.2 chance of making the playoffs. Before the beginning of the 4-game series vs. the Rays that just ended, they were at 31.8%. After the 4-game sweep they are all the way down to 14.7%
• Tampa Bay has the opposite story. At the start of the season they were at 20.8%. Before the 4-game Red Sox series, they had risen to 25.1%. Now they are at 44.4%. Basically the teams flip-flopped plus a little more.
• The Yankees, meanwhile, started at 56.9% and now stand at 72.2%.
• The Orioles started at a lowly 6.2% and have now sunk to 0.8%, meaning we'd have to play this season out 125 times for the Orioles to make the playoffs once, on average.
• The Astros have had a similar fall from 5.9% down to 1.5%
• The Pirates, despite getting off to a 7-5 start, still have only a 4% chance, not changed too much from their starting figure of 3%
• The Padres have seen a better increase from just 8.6% up to 14.2% thanks to their 7-6 start.
• Seven teams are projected for 90+ wins: Yankees, Cardinals, Phillies, Twins, Giants, Braves, and Rays. There's a good chance that there are at least 6 playoffs teams among that group of 7.

Related posts:

coolstandings.com

Phillies fans beware

Taking the plunge, Philly style

The most important games all year?

Bloops: Rays & Red Sox Would Make the Playoffs If Season Ended Today