Comments on: This Cain Is More Than Able http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/archives/5452 This and that about baseball stats. Fri, 11 Nov 2011 16:57:02 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.3.2 By: Alex http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/archives/5452/comment-page-1#comment-16192 Alex Fri, 16 Apr 2010 21:26:19 +0000 http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/?p=5452#comment-16192 I dunno, are you going solely by WHIP? Every other stat seems to be in Lincecum's favor.... I dunno, are you going solely by WHIP? Every other stat seems to be in Lincecum's favor....

]]> By: Johnny Twisto http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/archives/5452/comment-page-1#comment-16190 Johnny Twisto Fri, 16 Apr 2010 21:03:38 +0000 http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/?p=5452#comment-16190 Sorry, I didn't mean to imply that YOU had an agenda. Just that "one" can use different numbers to posit claims about clutchitude or lack thereof. I was mostly running off on a tangent in trying to figure out if it was significant that CC was undefeated in these starts. Sorry, I didn't mean to imply that YOU had an agenda. Just that "one" can use different numbers to posit claims about clutchitude or lack thereof. I was mostly running off on a tangent in trying to figure out if it was significant that CC was undefeated in these starts.

]]> By: BSK http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/archives/5452/comment-page-1#comment-16189 BSK Fri, 16 Apr 2010 20:47:42 +0000 http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/?p=5452#comment-16189 Twisto- No agenda here. I just think this chart alone isn't enough to determine if someone was the most "dominating". As another poster pointed out, looking at these starts as a percentage of total starts offers a different picture and looking at how the game scores broke down once over 60 provides more data. This is certainly interesting and helpful data and I think it points out that Cain has put together a pretty remarkable run at a very young age, but I don't know that it answers the question posited at the beginning of the post. Twisto-

No agenda here. I just think this chart alone isn't enough to determine if someone was the most "dominating". As another poster pointed out, looking at these starts as a percentage of total starts offers a different picture and looking at how the game scores broke down once over 60 provides more data. This is certainly interesting and helpful data and I think it points out that Cain has put together a pretty remarkable run at a very young age, but I don't know that it answers the question posited at the beginning of the post.

]]> By: Kahuna Tuna http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/archives/5452/comment-page-1#comment-16161 Kahuna Tuna Fri, 16 Apr 2010 16:41:31 +0000 http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/?p=5452#comment-16161 Dwight Gooden, through the end of his age-24 season (1989). Games Started: 175 # Matching: <b><i>112</i></b> Pct. w/GSc >=60: 64.0% W: 81 L: 10 W-L%: .890 ERA: 1.28 GS: 112 CG: 47 SHO: 18 SV: 1 IP: 922.2 H: 586 ER: 131 HR: 37 BB: 225 SO: 862 WHIP: 0.879 Gooden's highest game score during this period was 93 on 9/12/84 against the Pirates, a five-hit shutout in which he walked none and struck out 16. His lowest game score was 13 on 8/1/84 against the Cardinals, an 11-2 loss in which he allowed 10 hits and seven earned runs in three innings. Dwight Gooden, through the end of his age-24 season (1989).

Games Started: 175
# Matching: 112
Pct. w/GSc >=60: 64.0%
W: 81
L: 10
W-L%: .890
ERA: 1.28
GS: 112
CG: 47
SHO: 18
SV: 1
IP: 922.2
H: 586
ER: 131
HR: 37
BB: 225
SO: 862
WHIP: 0.879

Gooden's highest game score during this period was 93 on 9/12/84 against the Pirates, a five-hit shutout in which he walked none and struck out 16. His lowest game score was 13 on 8/1/84 against the Cardinals, an 11-2 loss in which he allowed 10 hits and seven earned runs in three innings.

]]> By: Johnny Twisto http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/archives/5452/comment-page-1#comment-16160 Johnny Twisto Fri, 16 Apr 2010 16:41:15 +0000 http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/?p=5452#comment-16160 BSK, you can see that Sabathia's ERA in his set is 1.20, which in the AL is more impressive than Cain's 1.27 in the NL. But there's probably diminishing returns once the ERA gets so low. Throwing them into Excel, it looks like both Cain's and Sabathia's avg Game Scores were 69.2. I was trying to think what Sabathia's incredible record in these games actually means. If you look at his Win Probability Stats, he's credited with 16.5 Pitching Wins (just based on his runs allowed and IP, I believe), but 19-20 wins in WPA, WPA/LI, and REW. I think this indicates he has probably done a good job of maximizing the run support he's gotten, pitching better in closer games -- been a clutch performer. But I don't know if the 35-0 above is evidence of that, or of anything. It means when he pitched really well in his early years, he would win the game. Maybe it means if his own team was being shut down, he _didn't_ have his best games, as he never pitched well and lost. I'm not sure. It could be spun in different ways, I suppose, depending on your agenda. BSK, you can see that Sabathia's ERA in his set is 1.20, which in the AL is more impressive than Cain's 1.27 in the NL. But there's probably diminishing returns once the ERA gets so low.

Throwing them into Excel, it looks like both Cain's and Sabathia's avg Game Scores were 69.2.

I was trying to think what Sabathia's incredible record in these games actually means. If you look at his Win Probability Stats, he's credited with 16.5 Pitching Wins (just based on his runs allowed and IP, I believe), but 19-20 wins in WPA, WPA/LI, and REW. I think this indicates he has probably done a good job of maximizing the run support he's gotten, pitching better in closer games -- been a clutch performer. But I don't know if the 35-0 above is evidence of that, or of anything. It means when he pitched really well in his early years, he would win the game. Maybe it means if his own team was being shut down, he _didn't_ have his best games, as he never pitched well and lost. I'm not sure. It could be spun in different ways, I suppose, depending on your agenda.

]]> By: JDV http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/archives/5452/comment-page-1#comment-16156 JDV Fri, 16 Apr 2010 15:37:44 +0000 http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/?p=5452#comment-16156 Another way to look at the same data is to calculate what percentage of their total starts during that period resulted in these 60+ GameScores. A different picture emerges. A quick check shows Tim Lincecum with 67.9% of his 24-and-under starts resulting in a 60+. That is far and away the highest mark. Others up there are Kerry Wood (59.7%), Barry Zito (57.1%), and Carlos Zambrano (56.6%). So it's also interesting to see some careers drastically change after 24 too. Another way to look at the same data is to calculate what percentage of their total starts during that period resulted in these 60+ GameScores. A different picture emerges. A quick check shows Tim Lincecum with 67.9% of his 24-and-under starts resulting in a 60+. That is far and away the highest mark. Others up there are Kerry Wood (59.7%), Barry Zito (57.1%), and Carlos Zambrano (56.6%). So it's also interesting to see some careers drastically change after 24 too.

]]> By: Kahuna Tuna http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/archives/5452/comment-page-1#comment-16155 Kahuna Tuna Fri, 16 Apr 2010 15:04:21 +0000 http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/?p=5452#comment-16155 A stat that stands out to me is Hamels' having given up more than half as many home runs in these starts as earned runs. It makes sense — Hamels is an aggressive pitcher playing in a small home park who is strongly committed to throwing first-pitch strikes. So he's going to give up some solo home runs. He just doesn't give up much else. A stat that stands out to me is Hamels' having given up more than half as many home runs in these starts as earned runs. It makes sense — Hamels is an aggressive pitcher playing in a small home park who is strongly committed to throwing first-pitch strikes. So he's going to give up some solo home runs. He just doesn't give up much else.

]]> By: Andy http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/archives/5452/comment-page-1#comment-16154 Andy Fri, 16 Apr 2010 14:26:59 +0000 http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/?p=5452#comment-16154 I've written about Cain before on this blog and Steve is onto something here. Cain has been very, very good. I've written about Cain before on this blog and Steve is onto something here. Cain has been very, very good.

]]> By: BSK http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/archives/5452/comment-page-1#comment-16153 BSK Fri, 16 Apr 2010 13:59:24 +0000 http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/?p=5452#comment-16153 What is the average game score for these games? Cain might have 65 all hovering right around 60, which could also contribute to his paltry W-L while Sabathia might have 45 all of which are much hire, contributing to his amazing 35-0 record. Obviously, anything over 60 is great, but even to that there are degrees, which would be interesting to see factored in. What is the average game score for these games? Cain might have 65 all hovering right around 60, which could also contribute to his paltry W-L while Sabathia might have 45 all of which are much hire, contributing to his amazing 35-0 record. Obviously, anything over 60 is great, but even to that there are degrees, which would be interesting to see factored in.

]]> By: Kevin http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/archives/5452/comment-page-1#comment-16152 Kevin Fri, 16 Apr 2010 13:58:25 +0000 http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/?p=5452#comment-16152 By showing Felix Hernandez right there at #3, I think you already answered your own question in the negative. Cain's been fantastic, but Hernandez has been better. By showing Felix Hernandez right there at #3, I think you already answered your own question in the negative. Cain's been fantastic, but Hernandez has been better.

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