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2010 Marcel Projected Standings: American League West & MLB Playoffs

Posted by Neil Paine on March 19, 2010

NOTE: This is my attempt to predict the standings for the 2010 MLB season using Tom Tango's Marcel projection system. For NL East projections and more background info on how these projections work, go here. Other division projections: NL Central, NL West, AL East, AL Central.

Rk Team Div W L Plyff wLDS wLCS wWS
1 TEX AL-W 82.3 79.7 38.0% 15.5% 6.6% 3.2%
2 ANA AL-W 80.7 81.3 26.9% 10.6% 4.4% 1.9%
3 SEA AL-W 80.3 81.7 24.0% 9.0% 3.7% 1.7%
4 OAK AL-W 78.9 83.1 16.7% 6.1% 2.3% 0.8%

1. Texas Rangers

Lineup BA OBP SLG wOBA
1 CF Julio Borbon 0.293 0.361 0.438 0.351
2 3B Michael Young 0.293 0.349 0.440 0.346
3 2B Ian Kinsler 0.276 0.349 0.476 0.361
4 LF Josh Hamilton 0.284 0.349 0.486 0.355
5 DH Vladimir Guerrero 0.291 0.353 0.484 0.346
6 RF Nelson Cruz 0.261 0.332 0.483 0.346
7 1B Chris Davis 0.267 0.320 0.486 0.341
8 C Jarrod Saltalamacchia 0.260 0.330 0.405 0.318
9 SS Elvis Andrus 0.280 0.346 0.410 0.336
Bench
C Taylor Teagarden 0.252 0.315 0.440 0.322
1B/3B Matt Brown 0.251 0.328 0.402 0.321
IF Joaquin Arias 0.268 0.332 0.407 0.323
OF David Murphy 0.273 0.335 0.458 0.337
Starting Rotation ERA K/9 BB/9 HR/9
1 RHP Scott Feldman 4.50 5.5 3.3 1.1
2 RHP Rich Harden 3.41 10.0 4.0 1.1
3 RHP Colby Lewis 4.85 6.9 3.5 1.4
4 RHP Tommy Hunter 4.54 6.2 2.8 1.2
5 RHP Brandon McCarthy 4.50 6.2 3.4 1.1
Bullpen
CL RHP Frank Francisco 4.02 8.8 3.5 1.1
SU LHP C.J. Wilson 3.95 8.5 4.0 0.8
SU RHP Neftali Feliz 3.51 8.3 2.9 0.9
MID LHP Darren Oliver 3.65 6.9 3.0 0.9
MID RHP Darren O'Day 3.51 7.3 3.1 0.8
MID RHP Chris Ray 5.17 7.5 3.8 1.3
LR RHP Dustin Nippert 4.73 7.0 3.8 1.0
Win Scan Prob
<=65 0.4%
66-70 2.4%
71-75 10.7%
76-80 25.2%
81-85 30.6%
86-90 21.0%
91-95 7.9%
96-100 1.6%
101-105 0.2%
>=106 0.0%

What a typical Texas World Championship season looks like:

Team Div W L Team Div W L Team Div W L
MIN AL-C 85 77 NYA AL-E 94 68 TEX AL-W 88 74
DET AL-C 81 81 BOS AL-E 91 71 ANA AL-W 79 83
CHA AL-C 79 83 TBA AL-E 87 75 SEA AL-W 79 83
CLE AL-C 77 85 BAL AL-E 76 86 OAK AL-W 78 84
KCA AL-C 71 91 TOR AL-E 73 89
Team Div W L Team Div W L Team Div W L
SLN NL-C 90 72 ATL NL-E 88 74 LAN NL-W 86 76
CHN NL-C 87 75 PHI NL-E 87 75 COL NL-W 83 79
MIL NL-C 83 79 NYN NL-E 81 81 ARI NL-W 82 80
CIN NL-C 75 87 FLO NL-E 80 82 SFN NL-W 82 80
HOU NL-C 73 89 WAS NL-E 73 89 SDN NL-W 76 86
PIT NL-C 70 92

2. Los Angeles Angels de Anaheim

Lineup BA OBP SLG wOBA
1 SS Erick Aybar 0.291 0.338 0.407 0.321
2 RF Bobby Abreu 0.279 0.365 0.434 0.352
3 1B Kendry Morales 0.294 0.350 0.527 0.360
4 CF Torii Hunter 0.277 0.340 0.473 0.347
5 DH Hideki Matsui 0.270 0.353 0.464 0.352
6 LF Juan Rivera 0.270 0.318 0.454 0.329
7 2B Howie Kendrick 0.298 0.339 0.443 0.338
8 C Mike Napoli 0.266 0.353 0.493 0.358
9 3B Brandon Wood 0.239 0.295 0.385 0.296
Bench
C Jeff Mathis 0.224 0.299 0.357 0.281
IF Maicer Izturis 0.281 0.344 0.408 0.329
IF/OF Robb Quinlan 0.253 0.314 0.360 0.296
OF Reggie Willits 0.259 0.346 0.341 0.307
Starting Rotation ERA K/9 BB/9 HR/9
1 RHP Jered Weaver 4.03 7.4 2.9 1.1
2 LHP Joe Saunders 4.21 5.4 3.0 1.2
3 LHP Scott Kazmir 4.17 8.6 3.7 1.1
4 RHP Ervin Santana 4.41 7.8 2.7 1.3
5 RHP Joel Pineiro 4.04 5.1 1.9 0.8
Bullpen
CL LHP Brian Fuentes 3.97 7.9 3.5 0.9
SU RHP Fernando Rodney 4.57 7.7 4.4 1.1
SU RHP Kevin Jepsen 4.58 7.5 3.2 0.8
MID RHP Jason Bulger 4.27 8.1 3.8 1.1
MID RHP Scot Shields 4.28 7.7 4.3 0.9
MID RHP Brian Stokes 4.36 6.3 3.9 1.0
LR RHP Matt Palmer 4.36 5.7 4.0 1.0
Win Scan Prob
<=65 0.6%
66-70 4.4%
71-75 15.6%
76-80 27.9%
81-85 29.1%
86-90 16.2%
91-95 5.2%
96-100 1.0%
101-105 0.0%
>=106 0.0%

What a typical Angels World Championship season looks like:

Team Div W L Team Div W L Team Div W L
MIN AL-C 85 77 NYA AL-E 94 68 ANA AL-W 87 75
DET AL-C 81 81 BOS AL-E 91 71 TEX AL-W 79 83
CHA AL-C 80 82 TBA AL-E 86 76 SEA AL-W 78 84
CLE AL-C 77 85 BAL AL-E 76 86 OAK AL-W 78 84
KCA AL-C 70 92 TOR AL-E 73 89
Team Div W L Team Div W L Team Div W L
SLN NL-C 90 72 ATL NL-E 88 74 LAN NL-W 85 77
CHN NL-C 87 75 PHI NL-E 88 74 COL NL-W 82 80
MIL NL-C 82 80 FLO NL-E 80 82 ARI NL-W 82 80
CIN NL-C 75 87 NYN NL-E 80 82 SFN NL-W 82 80
HOU NL-C 74 88 WAS NL-E 74 88 SDN NL-W 76 86
PIT NL-C 69 93

3. Seattle Mariners

Lineup BA OBP SLG wOBA
1 RF Ichiro Suzuki 0.319 0.365 0.418 0.340
2 3B Chone Figgins 0.290 0.376 0.382 0.343
3 LF Milton Bradley 0.281 0.389 0.465 0.366
4 CF Franklin Gutierrez 0.271 0.331 0.425 0.326
5 DH Ken Griffey, Jr 0.238 0.337 0.423 0.324
6 2B Jose Lopez 0.277 0.312 0.436 0.316
7 1B Casey Kotchman 0.277 0.345 0.421 0.331
8 SS Jack Wilson 0.266 0.315 0.387 0.299
9 C Adam Moore 0.270 0.341 0.429 0.336
Bench
C Rob Johnson 0.235 0.307 0.368 0.294
1B Ryan Garko 0.272 0.345 0.428 0.338
IF Jack Hannahan 0.233 0.316 0.364 0.300
OF Eric Byrnes 0.248 0.311 0.415 0.319
OF Ryan Langerhans 0.226 0.324 0.380 0.306
Starting Rotation ERA K/9 BB/9 HR/9
1 RHP Felix Hernandez 3.17 8.2 2.9 0.8
2 LHP Cliff Lee 3.34 7.1 2.1 0.7
3 RHP Ian Snell 4.83 6.6 4.3 1.0
4 LHP Ryan Rowland-Smith 3.87 6.1 3.2 1.0
5 LHP Erik Bedard 3.60 8.8 3.5 1.1
Bullpen
CL RHP David Aardsma 4.09 8.6 4.2 0.8
SU RHP Mark Lowe 4.18 7.6 3.7 1.0
SU RHP Brandon League 4.23 7.8 3.1 1.0
MID RHP Shawn Kelley 4.31 7.3 2.8 1.3
MID LHP Jason Vargas 4.74 6.1 2.8 1.4
LR LHP Garrett Olson 5.58 6.1 4.0 1.4
Win Scan Prob
<=65 0.9%
66-70 5.1%
71-75 16.1%
76-80 29.0%
81-85 28.3%
86-90 15.3%
91-95 4.6%
96-100 0.7%
101-105 0.0%
>=106 0.0%

What a typical Seattle World Championship season looks like:

Team Div W L Team Div W L Team Div W L
MIN AL-C 84 78 NYA AL-E 94 68 SEA AL-W 88 74
DET AL-C 81 81 BOS AL-E 90 72 ANA AL-W 80 82
CHA AL-C 79 83 TBA AL-E 85 77 TEX AL-W 79 83
CLE AL-C 76 86 BAL AL-E 76 86 OAK AL-W 78 84
KCA AL-C 71 91 TOR AL-E 73 89
Team Div W L Team Div W L Team Div W L
SLN NL-C 90 72 ATL NL-E 89 73 LAN NL-W 86 76
CHN NL-C 86 76 PHI NL-E 87 75 COL NL-W 83 79
MIL NL-C 82 80 NYN NL-E 81 81 ARI NL-W 83 79
CIN NL-C 75 87 FLO NL-E 80 82 SFN NL-W 81 81
HOU NL-C 74 88 WAS NL-E 73 89 SDN NL-W 76 86
PIT NL-C 70 92

4. Oakland Athletics

Lineup BA OBP SLG wOBA
1 LF Rajai Davis 0.277 0.335 0.403 0.332
2 CF Coco Crisp 0.262 0.335 0.397 0.323
3 RF Ryan Sweeney 0.289 0.350 0.411 0.333
4 DH Jack Cust 0.242 0.367 0.452 0.357
3 C Kurt Suzuki 0.273 0.332 0.404 0.323
6 3B Kevin Kouzmanoff 0.260 0.310 0.429 0.317
7 1B Daric Barton 0.259 0.354 0.418 0.333
8 2B Mark Ellis 0.254 0.318 0.405 0.316
9 SS Cliff Pennington 0.273 0.346 0.412 0.331
Bench
C Landon Powell 0.253 0.321 0.434 0.326
IF Adam Rosales 0.241 0.320 0.366 0.304
IF/OF Jake Fox 0.263 0.326 0.453 0.331
OF Gabe Gross 0.240 0.333 0.400 0.323
Starting Rotation ERA K/9 BB/9 HR/9
1 RHP Ben Sheets 3.49 7.1 2.7 0.9
2 LHP Brett Anderson 4.01 7.7 2.6 1.0
3 RHP Justin Duchscherer 3.66 6.5 2.8 1.0
4 LHP Dallas Braden 4.26 6.0 3.0 0.8
5 RHP Trevor Cahill 4.41 5.6 3.4 1.2
Bullpen
CL RHP Andrew Bailey 3.09 8.5 3.0 0.8
SU RHP Brad Ziegler 3.31 6.2 3.4 0.7
SU RHP Michael Wuertz 3.65 8.6 3.3 0.9
MID LHP Craig Breslow 3.60 7.1 3.6 1.0
MID RHP Joey Devine 3.30 7.8 3.3 0.9
MID LHP Jerry Blevins 4.28 7.7 3.2 0.9
LR LHP Brad Kilby 3.65 7.5 3.2 1.0
Win Scan Prob
<=65 1.7%
66-70 7.5%
71-75 20.4%
76-80 30.4%
81-85 25.0%
86-90 12.1%
91-95 2.7%
96-100 0.3%
101-105 0.0%
>=106 0.0%

What a typical Oakland World Championship season looks like:

Team Div W L Team Div W L Team Div W L
MIN AL-C 85 77 NYA AL-E 94 68 OAK AL-W 88 74
DET AL-C 80 82 BOS AL-E 89 73 TEX AL-W 80 82
CHA AL-C 79 83 TBA AL-E 86 76 ANA AL-W 79 83
CLE AL-C 76 86 BAL AL-E 76 86 SEA AL-W 79 83
KCA AL-C 71 91 TOR AL-E 74 88
Team Div W L Team Div W L Team Div W L
SLN NL-C 89 73 ATL NL-E 88 74 LAN NL-W 85 77
CHN NL-C 88 74 PHI NL-E 88 74 SFN NL-W 82 80
MIL NL-C 82 80 FLO NL-E 82 80 COL NL-W 81 81
CIN NL-C 75 87 NYN NL-E 80 82 ARI NL-W 81 81
HOU NL-C 74 88 WAS NL-E 73 89 SDN NL-W 75 87
PIT NL-C 70 92

2010 Playoff Projections
Standings:

Rk Team Div W L Rk Team Div W L Rk Team Div W L
1 MIN-x AL-C 85 77 1 NYA-x AL-E 94 68 1 TEX-x AL-W 82 80
2 DET AL-C 81 81 2 BOS-y AL-E 91 71 2 ANA AL-W 81 81
3 CHA AL-C 80 82 3 TBA AL-E 87 75 3 SEA AL-W 80 82
4 CLE AL-C 76 86 4 BAL AL-E 76 86 4 OAK AL-W 79 83
5 KCA AL-C 70 92 5 TOR AL-E 73 89
Rk Team Div W L Rk Team Div W L Rk Team Div W L
1 SLN-x NL-C 90 72 1 ATL-x NL-E 88 74 1 LAN-x NL-W 86 76
2 CHN NL-C 87 75 2 PHI-y NL-E 87 75 2 COL NL-W 83 79
3 MIL NL-C 82 80 3 NYN NL-E 81 81 3 SFN NL-W 82 80
4 CIN NL-C 75 87 4 FLO NL-E 80 82 4 ARI NL-W 82 80
5 HOU NL-C 74 88 5 WAS NL-E 74 88 5 SDN NL-W 76 86
6 PIT NL-C 70 92

ALDS:
Yankees over Rangers
Red Sox over Twins
NLDS:
Cardinals over Phillies
Braves over Dodgers
ALCS:
Yankees over Red Sox
NLCS:
Cardinals over Braves
World Series:
Yankees over Cardinals

This entry was posted on Friday, March 19th, 2010 at 5:00 am and is filed under Season Preview. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. Both comments and pings are currently closed.

6 Responses to “2010 Marcel Projected Standings: American League West & MLB Playoffs”

  1. If those playoff matchups held through the World Series, man the ratings would be huge.

  2. Quick. Tell Selig, and he'll fix it.

  3. The Phils and Cubs both finish 87-75. Why do the Phils get the wild card?

  4. They had fractionally more wins per season, on average, in the 10,000-season sim than Philly, even though both clubs rounded to 87 wins.

  5. [...] time to reveal our fearless predictions for the 2010 season. As for the standings, we consulted Neil Paine’s Marcel-projected standings, BaseballProjection’s Depth-chart standings and their starting-lineup standings and the [...]

  6. [...] time to reveal our fearless predictions for the 2010 season. As for the standings, we consulted Neil Paine’s Marcel-projected standings, BaseballProjection’s Depth-chart standings and their starting-lineup standings and the [...]