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2010 Marcel Projected Standings: American League Central

Posted by Neil Paine on March 18, 2010

NOTE: This is my attempt to predict the standings for the 2010 MLB season using Tom Tango's Marcel projection system. For NL East projections and more background info on how these projections work, go here. Other division projections: NL Central, NL West, AL East.

Rk Team Div W L Plyff wLDS wLCS wWS
1 MIN AL-C 84.9 77.1 53.4% 23.1% 10.0% 4.7%
2 DET AL-C 81.2 80.8 25.8% 10.2% 4.0% 1.5%
3 CHA AL-C 79.5 82.5 17.9% 6.3% 2.6% 1.0%
4 CLE AL-C 76.4 85.6 8.1% 2.8% 1.0% 0.3%
5 KCA AL-C 70.5 91.5 1.4% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0%

1. Minnesota Twins

Lineup BA OBP SLG wOBA
1 CF Denard Span 0.302 0.386 0.427 0.355
2 2B Orlando Hudson 0.283 0.357 0.426 0.339
3 C Joe Mauer 0.329 0.412 0.498 0.387
4 1B Justin Morneau 0.279 0.359 0.494 0.354
5 DH Jason Kubel 0.282 0.350 0.485 0.353
6 RF Michael Cuddyer 0.267 0.340 0.455 0.344
7 LF Delmon Young 0.288 0.328 0.423 0.323
8 SS J.J. Hardy 0.265 0.327 0.437 0.329
9 3B Nick Punto 0.241 0.324 0.324 0.293
Bench
C Jose Morales 0.291 0.361 0.418 0.340
1B/DH Jim Thome 0.244 0.358 0.476 0.355
IF Brendan Harris 0.266 0.324 0.396 0.313
IF/OF Alexi Casilla 0.252 0.315 0.348 0.297
Starting Rotation ERA K/9 BB/9 HR/9
1 RHP Scott Baker 4.17 7.2 2.4 1.2
2 RHP Nick Blackburn 4.18 5.0 2.1 1.1
3 RHP Carl Pavano 5.02 6.4 2.3 1.2
4 RHP Kevin Slowey 4.39 7.2 1.9 1.4
5 LHP Francisco Liriano 5.02 7.8 3.8 1.2
Bullpen
CL RHP Matt Guerrier 3.68 6.5 3.0 1.3
SU LHP Jose Mijares 3.47 7.4 3.2 0.9
SU RHP Jesse Crain 4.42 7.1 3.8 0.9
MID RHP Jon Rauch 4.16 7.0 2.8 1.1
MID RHP Pat Neshek 4.15 7.6 3.5 1.0
MID RHP Clay Condrey 3.74 5.8 3.2 0.8
LR LHP Brian Duensing 4.05 6.4 3.3 0.9
Win Scan Prob
<=65 0.1%
66-70 1.1%
71-75 5.2%
76-80 18.0%
81-85 29.2%
86-90 27.7%
91-95 14.2%
96-100 4.0%
101-105 0.5%
>=106 0.0%

What a typical Minnesota World Championship season looks like:

Team Div W L Team Div W L Team Div W L
MIN AL-C 89 73 NYA AL-E 94 68 TEX AL-W 82 80
DET AL-C 80 82 BOS AL-E 90 72 ANA AL-W 81 81
CHA AL-C 78 84 TBA AL-E 86 76 SEA AL-W 81 81
CLE AL-C 76 86 BAL AL-E 76 86 OAK AL-W 79 83
KCA AL-C 70 92 TOR AL-E 73 89
Team Div W L Team Div W L Team Div W L
SLN NL-C 90 72 ATL NL-E 88 74 LAN NL-W 86 76
CHN NL-C 86 76 PHI NL-E 87 75 COL NL-W 83 79
MIL NL-C 82 80 NYN NL-E 80 82 SFN NL-W 82 80
CIN NL-C 76 86 FLO NL-E 80 82 ARI NL-W 81 81
HOU NL-C 74 88 WAS NL-E 74 88 SDN NL-W 76 86
PIT NL-C 70 92

2. Detroit Tigers

Lineup BA OBP SLG wOBA
1 CF Austin Jackson 0.266 0.339 0.424 0.332
2 LF Johnny Damon 0.275 0.353 0.440 0.351
3 RF Magglio Ordoñez 0.310 0.376 0.475 0.367
4 1B Miguel Cabrera 0.309 0.380 0.537 0.381
5 DH Carlos Guillen 0.268 0.350 0.444 0.340
6 3B Brandon Inge 0.227 0.310 0.384 0.302
7 C Gerald Laird 0.241 0.306 0.361 0.292
8 2B Scott Sizemore 0.266 0.339 0.424 0.332
9 SS Adam Everett 0.236 0.293 0.345 0.276
Bench
C Alex Avila 0.282 0.362 0.481 0.362
IF Ramon Santiago 0.267 0.338 0.412 0.321
IF/OF Ryan Raburn 0.274 0.339 0.463 0.342
OF Clete Thomas 0.262 0.342 0.409 0.331
Starting Rotation ERA K/9 BB/9 HR/9
1 RHP Justin Verlander 3.96 8.8 3.0 0.9
2 RHP Max Scherzer 3.95 8.9 3.3 1.0
3 RHP Rick Porcello 3.97 5.6 2.9 1.1
4 RHP Jeremy Bonderman 4.71 6.7 3.6 1.3
5 LHP Nate Robertson 5.48 6.2 3.7 1.2
Bullpen
CL RHP Jose Valverde 3.36 8.8 3.5 1.1
SU RHP Joel Zumaya 4.40 7.5 4.6 1.3
SU LHP Bobby Seay 4.25 7.4 3.4 0.8
MID LHP Phil Coke 4.18 7.2 3.1 1.1
MID RHP Ryan Perry 4.02 7.9 4.2 1.0
MID LHP Fu-Te Ni 3.95 6.6 3.3 1.1
LR RHP Zach Miner 4.30 6.0 3.8 1.0
Win Scan Prob
<=65 0.6%
66-70 3.7%
71-75 13.5%
76-80 27.8%
81-85 29.2%
86-90 18.4%
91-95 5.7%
96-100 1.0%
101-105 0.1%
>=106 0.0%

What a typical Detroit World Championship season looks like:

Team Div W L Team Div W L Team Div W L
DET AL-C 89 73 NYA AL-E 93 69 TEX AL-W 82 80
MIN AL-C 81 81 BOS AL-E 90 72 ANA AL-W 81 81
CHA AL-C 78 84 TBA AL-E 86 76 SEA AL-W 80 82
CLE AL-C 76 86 BAL AL-E 76 86 OAK AL-W 79 83
KCA AL-C 70 92 TOR AL-E 73 89
Team Div W L Team Div W L Team Div W L
SLN NL-C 89 73 ATL NL-E 88 74 LAN NL-W 85 77
CHN NL-C 87 75 PHI NL-E 87 75 COL NL-W 83 79
MIL NL-C 82 80 NYN NL-E 80 82 ARI NL-W 82 80
CIN NL-C 76 86 FLO NL-E 80 82 SFN NL-W 82 80
HOU NL-C 75 87 WAS NL-E 74 88 SDN NL-W 76 86
PIT NL-C 70 92

3. Chicago White Sox

Lineup BA OBP SLG wOBA
1 LF Juan Pierre 0.285 0.336 0.361 0.310
2 2B Gordon Beckham 0.277 0.353 0.458 0.351
3 3B Mark Teahen 0.268 0.330 0.410 0.321
5 RF Carlos Quentin 0.258 0.349 0.481 0.358
6 1B Paul Konerko 0.255 0.342 0.457 0.342
4 CF Alex Rios 0.273 0.327 0.444 0.336
7 C A.J. Pierzynski 0.276 0.317 0.409 0.309
8 SS Alexei Ramirez 0.278 0.328 0.425 0.322
9 DH Andruw Jones 0.213 0.306 0.393 0.304
Bench
C Ramon Castro 0.247 0.317 0.435 0.321
1B/OF Mark Kotsay 0.259 0.318 0.386 0.302
IF Omar Vizquel 0.235 0.296 0.317 0.263
IF/OF Jayson Nix 0.235 0.317 0.397 0.311
Starting Rotation ERA K/9 BB/9 HR/9
1 LHP Mark Buehrle 3.95 5.3 2.3 1.1
2 RHP Jake Peavy 3.45 8.6 3.0 0.8
3 RHP Gavin Floyd 4.09 7.2 3.0 1.2
4 LHP John Danks 3.85 7.2 3.1 1.2
5 RHP Freddy Garcia 4.65 6.6 2.9 1.1
Bullpen
CL RHP Bobby Jenks 3.72 7.1 2.9 1.1
SU LHP Matt Thornton 3.71 9.0 3.0 0.8
SU RHP J.J. Putz 3.89 8.2 4.1 0.8
MID RHP Tony Peña 4.16 6.9 2.8 0.9
MID RHP Scott Linebrink 4.34 7.4 3.3 1.4
MID LHP Randy Williams 4.50 7.4 4.0 1.1
LR RHP Carlos Torres 4.87 6.9 3.8 1.2
Win Scan Prob
<=65 1.3%
66-70 6.6%
71-75 18.4%
76-80 29.6%
81-85 27.0%
86-90 12.9%
91-95 3.7%
96-100 0.5%
101-105 0.0%
>=106 0.0%

What a typical White Sox World Championship season looks like:

Team Div W L Team Div W L Team Div W L
CHA AL-C 89 73 NYA AL-E 94 69 TEX AL-W 82 80
MIN AL-C 82 80 BOS AL-E 90 72 ANA AL-W 81 81
DET AL-C 79 83 TBA AL-E 86 76 SEA AL-W 80 82
CLE AL-C 76 86 BAL AL-E 76 86 OAK AL-W 80 82
KCA AL-C 69 93 TOR AL-E 73 89
Team Div W L Team Div W L Team Div W L
SLN NL-C 88 74 ATL NL-E 89 73 LAN NL-W 85 77
CHN NL-C 86 76 PHI NL-E 88 74 COL NL-W 84 78
MIL NL-C 83 79 NYN NL-E 81 81 ARI NL-W 81 81
CIN NL-C 75 87 FLO NL-E 80 82 SFN NL-W 81 81
HOU NL-C 74 88 WAS NL-E 74 88 SDN NL-W 76 86
PIT NL-C 70 92

4. Cleveland Indians

Lineup BA OBP SLG wOBA
1 SS Asdrubal Cabrera 0.292 0.360 0.425 0.339
2 CF Grady Sizemore 0.264 0.366 0.469 0.361
3 RF Shin-Soo Choo 0.298 0.387 0.495 0.380
4 DH Travis Hafner 0.251 0.347 0.425 0.329
5 3B Jhonny Peralta 0.267 0.330 0.423 0.327
6 1B Matt LaPorta 0.270 0.336 0.453 0.340
7 1B Russell Branyan 0.243 0.336 0.480 0.344
8 2B Luis Valbuena 0.262 0.321 0.428 0.322
9 C Lou Marson 0.275 0.353 0.440 0.345
Bench
C Mike Redmond 0.261 0.318 0.349 0.296
1B/OF Austin Kearns 0.236 0.334 0.372 0.313
IF Brian Bixler 0.237 0.305 0.355 0.289
OF Trevor Crowe 0.257 0.316 0.387 0.308
Starting Rotation ERA K/9 BB/9 HR/9
1 RHP Jake Westbrook 4.29 6.1 3.1 1.1
2 RHP Justin Masterson 4.17 7.8 3.8 1.0
3 RHP Fausto Carmona 5.00 5.8 4.1 0.9
4 LHP David Huff 5.08 5.6 3.0 1.1
5 LHP Aaron Laffey 4.32 5.3 3.5 0.9
Bullpen
CL RHP Kerry Wood 4.12 8.8 3.7 0.9
SU RHP Chris Perez 4.19 8.5 3.7 1.1
SU LHP Tony Sipp 4.00 8.2 4.0 1.2
MID RHP Joe Smith 3.94 7.5 3.6 0.9
MID RHP Jensen Lewis 4.15 7.8 3.6 1.2
MID LHP Rafael Perez 4.58 7.7 3.3 0.9
LR RHP Hector Ambriz 4.68 6.7 3.4 1.1
Win Scan Prob
<=65 3.9%
66-70 13.7%
71-75 26.4%
76-80 30.3%
81-85 18.2%
86-90 6.2%
91-95 1.2%
96-100 0.1%
101-105 0.0%
>=106 0.0%

What a typical Cleveland World Championship season looks like:

Team Div W L Team Div W L Team Div W L
CLE AL-C 86 76 NYA AL-E 94 68 TEX AL-W 84 78
MIN AL-C 81 81 BOS AL-E 88 74 SEA AL-W 82 80
CHA AL-C 78 84 TBA AL-E 85 77 ANA AL-W 81 81
DET AL-C 77 85 BAL AL-E 74 88 OAK AL-W 79 83
KCA AL-C 72 90 TOR AL-E 72 90
Team Div W L Team Div W L Team Div W L
SLN NL-C 88 74 ATL NL-E 89 73 LAN NL-W 85 77
CHN NL-C 87 75 PHI NL-E 88 74 COL NL-W 82 80
MIL NL-C 82 80 FLO NL-E 82 80 ARI NL-W 82 80
CIN NL-C 76 86 NYN NL-E 81 81 SFN NL-W 81 81
HOU NL-C 75 87 WAS NL-E 72 90 SDN NL-W 76 86
PIT NL-C 71 91

5. Kansas City Royals

Lineup BA OBP SLG wOBA
1 LF Scott Podsednik 0.276 0.333 0.392 0.319
2 2B Chris Getz 0.267 0.332 0.373 0.319
3 RF David DeJesus 0.278 0.350 0.421 0.331
4 1B Billy Butler 0.296 0.356 0.466 0.354
5 CF Rick Ankiel 0.252 0.315 0.448 0.324
6 RF Jose Guillen 0.260 0.317 0.417 0.319
7 3B Alex Gordon 0.256 0.339 0.421 0.332
8 SS Yuniesky Betancourt 0.267 0.298 0.390 0.293
9 C Jason Kendall 0.239 0.315 0.321 0.283
Bench
C Brayan Peña 0.268 0.324 0.430 0.321
IF Alberto Callaspo 0.291 0.351 0.426 0.337
IF/OF Willie Bloomquist 0.266 0.325 0.349 0.303
IF/OF Josh Fields 0.240 0.313 0.413 0.313
Starting Rotation ERA K/9 BB/9 HR/9
1 RHP Zack Greinke 3.05 8.7 2.4 0.8
2 RHP Gil Meche 4.44 7.1 3.4 1.0
3 RHP Luke Hochevar 5.63 6.4 3.1 1.2
4 RHP Brian Bannister 4.88 5.8 3.0 1.1
5 RHP Kyle Davies 4.87 6.5 4.1 1.2
Bullpen
CL RHP Joakim Soria 3.10 9.2 2.9 0.9
SU RHP Juan Cruz 4.42 8.3 4.4 1.1
SU RHP Kyle Farnsworth 4.50 7.9 3.4 1.4
MID RHP Robinson Tejeda 4.38 8.5 4.7 1.0
MID RHP Roman Colon 4.68 6.3 3.6 1.3
MID LHP Edgar Osuna 4.68 6.7 3.4 1.1
LR RHP Brad Thompson 4.56 5.1 3.0 1.0
Win Scan Prob
<=65 20.8%
66-70 29.1%
71-75 29.3%
76-80 15.2%
81-85 4.8%
86-90 0.7%
91-95 0.1%
96-100 0.0%
101-105 0.0%
>=106 0.0%

What a typical Kansas City World Championship season looks like:

Team Div W L Team Div W L Team Div W L
KCA AL-C 84 78 NYA AL-E 95 67 TEX AL-W 88 74
MIN AL-C 79 83 BOS AL-E 88 74 SEA AL-W 82 80
CLE AL-C 78 84 TBA AL-E 83 79 OAK AL-W 79 83
DET AL-C 77 85 TOR AL-E 76 86 ANA AL-W 76 86
CHA AL-C 75 87 BAL AL-E 76 86
Team Div W L Team Div W L Team Div W L
SLN NL-C 93 69 PHI NL-E 92 70 SFN NL-W 85 77
CHN NL-C 85 77 ATL NL-E 91 71 LAN NL-W 85 77
MIL NL-C 83 79 NYN NL-E 79 83 COL NL-W 82 80
CIN NL-C 75 87 FLO NL-E 74 88 ARI NL-W 81 81
HOU NL-C 74 88 WAS NL-E 71 91 SDN NL-W 76 86
PIT NL-C 68 94

This entry was posted on Thursday, March 18th, 2010 at 2:31 am and is filed under Season Preview. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. Both comments and pings are currently closed.

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