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2010 Marcel Projected Standings: American League East

Posted by Neil Paine on March 17, 2010

NOTE: This is my attempt to predict the standings for the 2010 MLB season using Tom Tango's Marcel projection system. For NL East projections and more background info on how these projections work, go here. Other division projections: NL Central, NL West.

Rk Team Div W L Plyff wLDS wLCS wWS
1 NYA AL-E 94.2 67.8 84.1% 55.8% 34.2% 20.9%
2 BOS AL-E 90.6 71.4 66.0% 39.8% 21.5% 12.2%
3 TBA AL-E 86.5 75.5 34.5% 19.1% 9.1% 4.8%
4 BAL AL-E 75.7 86.3 2.5% 1.2% 0.5% 0.2%
5 TOR AL-E 73.0 89.0 0.7% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0%

1. New York Yankees

Lineup BA OBP SLG wOBA
1 SS Derek Jeter 0.305 0.374 0.429 0.355
2 DH Nick Johnson 0.274 0.399 0.411 0.357
3 1B Mark Teixeira 0.293 0.386 0.540 0.387
4 3B Alex Rodriguez 0.286 0.387 0.548 0.396
5 C Jorge Posada 0.281 0.363 0.477 0.359
6 CF Curtis Granderson 0.270 0.345 0.483 0.356
7 2B Robinson Cano 0.297 0.337 0.469 0.342
8 RF Nick Swisher 0.245 0.359 0.454 0.348
9 LF Brett Gardner 0.265 0.337 0.383 0.325
Bench
C Francisco Cervelli 0.284 0.340 0.427 0.325
1B/OF Marcus Thames 0.246 0.304 0.471 0.324
IF/OF Ramiro Peña 0.281 0.341 0.430 0.335
OF Randy Winn 0.276 0.334 0.396 0.323
Starting Rotation ERA K/9 BB/9 HR/9
1 LHP CC Sabathia 3.38 8.0 2.4 0.8
2 RHP A.J. Burnett 4.18 8.6 3.9 1.1
3 LHP Andy Pettitte 4.47 6.7 3.2 1.0
4 RHP Javier Vazquez 3.68 9.0 2.5 1.0
5 RHP Phillip Hughes 4.00 8.3 3.2 1.0
Bullpen
CL RHP Mariano Rivera 3.05 8.4 2.2 1.0
SU RHP Joba Chamberlain 4.03 8.5 3.8 1.0
SU LHP Damaso Marte 4.74 8.1 3.6 0.9
SU RHP Dave Robertson 4.14 9.4 3.8 0.9
MID RHP Chan Ho Park 4.22 7.3 3.6 0.9
MID RHP Alfredo Aceves 3.82 6.9 2.6 1.1
LR RHP Chad Gaudin 4.57 7.7 3.9 1.0
Win Scan Prob
<=65 0.0%
66-70 0.0%
71-75 0.1%
76-80 1.6%
81-85 6.7%
86-90 18.8%
91-95 30.5%
96-100 26.8%
101-105 12.5%
>=106 2.9%

What a typical Yankees World Championship season looks like:

Team Div W L Team Div W L Team Div W L
MIN AL-C 85 77 NYA AL-E 96 66 TEX AL-W 82 80
DET AL-C 81 81 BOS AL-E 90 72 ANA AL-W 81 81
CHA AL-C 79 83 TBA AL-E 86 76 SEA AL-W 80 82
CLE AL-C 76 86 BAL AL-E 76 86 OAK AL-W 79 83
KCA AL-C 70 92 TOR AL-E 73 89
Team Div W L Team Div W L Team Div W L
SLN NL-C 90 72 ATL NL-E 88 74 LAN NL-W 86 76
CHN NL-C 87 75 PHI NL-E 88 74 COL NL-W 83 79
MIL NL-C 82 80 NYN NL-E 80 82 SFN NL-W 82 80
CIN NL-C 75 87 FLO NL-E 80 82 ARI NL-W 82 80
HOU NL-C 74 88 WAS NL-E 74 88 SDN NL-W 76 86
PIT NL-C 70 92

2. Boston Red Sox

Lineup BA OBP SLG wOBA
1 LF Jacoby Ellsbury 0.295 0.352 0.419 0.349
2 2B Dustin Pedroia 0.308 0.374 0.465 0.365
3 C Victor Martinez 0.287 0.361 0.452 0.350
4 1B Kevin Youkilis 0.294 0.387 0.511 0.383
5 DH David Ortiz 0.264 0.363 0.493 0.360
6 RF J.D. Drew 0.269 0.377 0.472 0.362
7 CF Mike Cameron 0.241 0.328 0.435 0.332
8 3B Adrian Beltre 0.265 0.318 0.430 0.324
9 SS Marco Scutaro 0.266 0.348 0.378 0.324
Bench
C Jason Varitek 0.225 0.321 0.385 0.306
1B/3B Mike Lowell 0.282 0.339 0.456 0.340
IF/OF Bill Hall 0.229 0.293 0.387 0.293
OF Jeremy Hermida 0.269 0.350 0.434 0.340
Starting Rotation ERA K/9 BB/9 HR/9
1 RHP Josh Beckett 3.96 8.4 2.3 1.0
2 LHP Jon Lester 3.56 8.4 3.0 0.9
3 RHP John Lackey 3.82 7.1 2.5 1.1
4 RHP Daisuke Matsuzaka 4.25 8.2 4.2 1.1
5 RHP Clay Buchholz 4.74 7.4 3.7 1.2
Bullpen
CL RHP Jonathan Papelbon 3.00 9.1 2.7 0.8
SU LHP Hideki Okajima 3.63 7.5 3.2 1.2
SU RHP Daniel Bard 3.96 8.6 3.4 1.1
MID RHP Ramon S. Ramirez 3.63 7.4 3.8 0.8
MID RHP Manny Delcarmen 4.06 7.5 3.9 0.9
MID RHP Scott Atchison 4.32 7.2 3.6 1.1
LR RHP Tim Wakefield 4.66 5.5 3.4 1.1
Win Scan Prob
<=65 0.0%
66-70 0.1%
71-75 0.9%
76-80 4.8%
81-85 15.3%
86-90 28.1%
91-95 29.0%
96-100 16.3%
101-105 4.7%
>=106 0.7%

What a typical Boston World Championship season looks like:

Team Div W L Team Div W L Team Div W L
MIN AL-C 85 77 BOS AL-E 94 68 TEX AL-W 82 80
DET AL-C 81 81 NYA AL-E 93 69 SEA AL-W 80 82
CHA AL-C 80 82 TBA AL-E 85 77 ANA AL-W 80 82
CLE AL-C 77 85 BAL AL-E 76 86 OAK AL-W 79 83
KCA AL-C 71 91 TOR AL-E 73 89
Team Div W L Team Div W L Team Div W L
SLN NL-C 90 72 ATL NL-E 88 74 LAN NL-W 86 76
CHN NL-C 87 75 PHI NL-E 87 75 COL NL-W 83 79
MIL NL-C 82 80 NYN NL-E 81 81 SFN NL-W 82 80
CIN NL-C 75 87 FLO NL-E 80 82 ARI NL-W 81 81
HOU NL-C 74 88 WAS NL-E 74 88 SDN NL-W 76 86
PIT NL-C 69 93

3. Tampa Bay Rays

Lineup BA OBP SLG wOBA
1 SS Jason Bartlett 0.287 0.351 0.408 0.337
2 LF Carl Crawford 0.293 0.346 0.437 0.348
3 3B Evan Longoria 0.284 0.362 0.523 0.372
4 1B Carlos Peña 0.247 0.369 0.520 0.371
5 2B Ben Zobrist 0.272 0.365 0.487 0.366
6 DH Pat Burrell 0.239 0.349 0.442 0.343
7 CF B.J. Upton 0.269 0.357 0.425 0.346
8 RF Matt Joyce 0.259 0.339 0.477 0.346
9 C Kelly Shoppach 0.246 0.337 0.451 0.338
Bench
C Dioner Navarro 0.255 0.309 0.377 0.295
1B Hank Blalock 0.257 0.312 0.471 0.331
IF Willy Aybar 0.260 0.335 0.422 0.327
OF Gabe Kapler 0.264 0.330 0.450 0.336
Starting Rotation ERA K/9 BB/9 HR/9
1 RHP James Shields 4.01 7.0 2.2 1.2
2 LHP David Price 4.20 7.2 3.5 1.1
3 RHP Matt Garza 3.95 7.6 3.3 1.1
4 RHP Jeff Niemann 4.11 6.6 3.1 1.0
5 RHP Wade Davis 4.15 7.6 3.2 0.9
Bullpen
CL RHP Rafael Soriano 3.52 9.4 3.4 1.0
SU LHP J.P. Howell 3.71 9.0 3.8 0.9
SU RHP Dan Wheeler 4.05 7.4 2.7 1.4
MID RHP Grant Balfour 4.15 8.9 4.0 0.8
MID RHP Lance Cormier 4.25 5.6 3.5 1.0
MID LHP Randy Choate 4.19 6.9 3.3 1.0
LR RHP Andy Sonnanstine 5.21 6.2 2.5 1.3
Win Scan Prob
<=65 0.0%
66-70 0.6%
71-75 3.5%
76-80 12.6%
81-85 26.7%
86-90 29.9%
91-95 18.5%
96-100 6.9%
101-105 1.2%
>=106 0.1%

What a typical Tampa World Championship season looks like:

Team Div W L Team Div W L Team Div W L
MIN AL-C 85 77 TBA AL-E 93 69 TEX AL-W 82 80
DET AL-C 81 81 NYA AL-E 92 70 ANA AL-W 81 81
CHA AL-C 80 82 BOS AL-E 88 74 SEA AL-W 80 82
CLE AL-C 76 86 BAL AL-E 76 86 OAK AL-W 78 84
KCA AL-C 70 92 TOR AL-E 73 89
Team Div W L Team Div W L Team Div W L
SLN NL-C 90 72 ATL NL-E 88 74 LAN NL-W 86 76
CHN NL-C 87 75 PHI NL-E 88 74 COL NL-W 83 79
MIL NL-C 82 80 NYN NL-E 81 81 SFN NL-W 82 80
CIN NL-C 76 86 FLO NL-E 80 82 ARI NL-W 81 81
HOU NL-C 74 88 WAS NL-E 74 88 SDN NL-W 76 86
PIT NL-C 69 93

4. Baltimore Orioles

Lineup BA OBP SLG wOBA
1 2B Brian Roberts 0.281 0.360 0.437 0.353
2 CF Adam Jones 0.277 0.331 0.442 0.334
3 RF Nick Markakis 0.297 0.370 0.473 0.364
4 3B Miguel Tejada 0.287 0.327 0.426 0.322
5 C Matt Wieters 0.290 0.350 0.428 0.339
6 LF Nolan Reimold 0.278 0.358 0.461 0.356
7 DH Luke Scott 0.254 0.337 0.471 0.342
8 1B Garrett Atkins 0.267 0.330 0.425 0.329
9 SS Cesar Izturis 0.258 0.311 0.338 0.291
Bench
C Craig Tatum 0.246 0.322 0.384 0.307
IF Robert Andino 0.249 0.310 0.365 0.293
IF Ty Wigginton 0.271 0.328 0.442 0.330
OF Felix Pie 0.262 0.328 0.412 0.321
Starting Rotation ERA K/9 BB/9 HR/9
1 RHP Kevin Millwood 4.50 6.1 3.2 1.2
2 RHP Jeremy Guthrie 4.45 5.7 2.8 1.4
3 RHP Brad Bergesen 3.76 5.8 2.7 0.9
4 LHP Brian Matusz 4.39 7.5 3.1 1.1
5 RHP Chris Tillman 4.65 6.5 3.2 1.5
Bullpen
CL LHP Mike Gonzalez 3.41 9.0 3.8 1.0
SU RHP Jim Johnson 3.90 6.3 3.4 0.8
SU RHP Koji Uehara 4.35 6.6 2.7 1.1
MID LHP Alberto Castillo 4.24 6.9 3.4 1.1
MID RHP Kam Mickolio 4.09 7.4 3.5 0.8
MID RHP Cla Meredith 4.15 6.2 3.0 0.8
LR LHP Mark Hendrickson 4.94 5.8 3.1 1.2
Win Scan Prob
<=65 5.2%
66-70 15.2%
71-75 28.3%
76-80 28.9%
81-85 16.1%
86-90 5.5%
91-95 0.8%
96-100 0.0%
101-105 0.0%
>=106 0.0%

What a typical Baltimore World Championship season looks like:

Team Div W L Team Div W L Team Div W L
MIN AL-C 84 78 BAL AL-E 89 73 TEX AL-W 84 78
CHA AL-C 80 82 NYA AL-E 88 74 ANA AL-W 81 81
DET AL-C 79 83 BOS AL-E 85 77 OAK AL-W 80 82
CLE AL-C 78 84 TBA AL-E 85 77 SEA AL-W 80 82
KCA AL-C 70 92 TOR AL-E 74 88
Team Div W L Team Div W L Team Div W L
SLN NL-C 89 73 PHI NL-E 89 73 LAN NL-W 85 77
CHN NL-C 86 76 ATL NL-E 88 74 COL NL-W 84 78
MIL NL-C 84 78 FLO NL-E 79 83 ARI NL-W 81 81
HOU NL-C 76 86 NYN NL-E 78 84 SFN NL-W 80 82
CIN NL-C 75 87 WAS NL-E 71 91 SDN NL-W 77 85
PIT NL-C 69 93

5. Toronto Blue Jays

Lineup BA OBP SLG wOBA
1 RF Jose Bautista 0.243 0.333 0.413 0.323
2 2B Aaron Hill 0.281 0.332 0.463 0.341
3 LF Adam Lind 0.286 0.344 0.494 0.354
4 CF Vernon Wells 0.262 0.316 0.424 0.319
5 1B Lyle Overbay 0.259 0.350 0.428 0.337
6 3B Edwin Encarnacion 0.259 0.342 0.443 0.343
7 RF Travis Snider 0.270 0.346 0.447 0.341
8 C John Buck 0.236 0.310 0.413 0.311
9 SS Alex Gonzalez 0.251 0.304 0.403 0.300
Bench
C Jose Molina 0.235 0.291 0.339 0.275
1B Randy Ruiz 0.277 0.347 0.475 0.351
IF John McDonald 0.241 0.283 0.354 0.273
OF Jeremy Reed 0.259 0.318 0.366 0.298
Starting Rotation ERA K/9 BB/9 HR/9
1 LHP Ricky Romero 4.29 7.2 3.7 1.0
2 RHP Shaun Marcum 3.99 7.2 3.1 1.4
3 RHP Brandon Morrow 4.13 8.5 4.6 1.1
4 LHP Marc Rzepczynski 4.05 7.8 3.7 1.1
5 LHP Brian Tallet 4.69 6.9 3.9 1.0
Bullpen
CL RHP Jason Frasor 3.97 7.8 3.7 0.9
SU LHP Scott Downs 3.44 7.5 3.3 0.8
SU RHP Kevin Gregg 4.09 8.2 4.1 1.1
MID LHP Jesse Carlson 4.15 7.1 3.2 1.0
MID RHP Jeremy Accardo 3.92 6.7 3.7 0.9
MID RHP Josh Roenicke 4.61 7.7 3.7 0.9
LR RHP Shawn Camp 4.30 6.8 3.4 0.9
Win Scan Prob
<=65 11.7%
66-70 23.0%
71-75 30.8%
76-80 22.7%
81-85 9.7%
86-90 2.0%
91-95 0.2%
96-100 0.0%
101-105 0.0%
>=106 0.0%

What a typical Toronto World Championship season looks like:

Team Div W L Team Div W L Team Div W L
MIN AL-C 83 80 NYA AL-E 92 70 OAK AL-W 85 78
CLE AL-C 80 83 TOR AL-E 91 72 TEX AL-W 83 80
DET AL-C 78 84 BOS AL-E 86 77 SEA AL-W 82 80
KCA AL-C 72 90 TBA AL-E 78 84 ANA AL-W 78 85
CHA AL-C 71 92 BAL AL-E 76 86
Team Div W L Team Div W L Team Div W L
SLN NL-C 93 70 ATL NL-E 88 74 SFN NL-W 86 77
CHN NL-C 87 75 PHI NL-E 83 80 ARI NL-W 85 78
MIL NL-C 87 76 FLO NL-E 79 84 LAN NL-W 81 81
HOU NL-C 82 81 WAS NL-E 79 84 COL NL-W 79 83
PIT NL-C 77 86 NYN NL-E 75 87 SDN NL-W 78 85
CIN NL-C 65 97

This entry was posted on Wednesday, March 17th, 2010 at 1:29 am and is filed under Season Preview. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. Both comments and pings are currently closed.

5 Responses to “2010 Marcel Projected Standings: American League East”

  1. The general theme so far has been that the Pirates, Nats, and Padres stink. In every table except the one they win, and for some reason the one the Pirates win, the Padres are dead last. Up until now, in every table except the ones they win, the Nats and Pirates were dead last. Oddly enough, if the Blue Jays win it all, the odds say the Nats will take 4th place by 3.5 games and the Pirates will take 5th place by 11.5(!) games.
    Other weird features of the Blue Jays table:
    The AL Central is all mixed up compared to the other tables (the Indians 3 games out of first?)
    The A's win the AL West instead of finishing last like they do in almost every other table
    The Giants win the NL West instead of finishing third
    The Blue Jays win the World Series, but not their own division

    So apparently the Blue Jays winning the WS would make for a very, very odd year.

  2. Murphy O'Furphy O'Fluffy O'Flynn Says:

    Interestingly, in a season when the Blue Jays win the World Series, Marcel also projects that the Earth's magnetic poles will reverse and that Robert Mugabe will win the Nobel Peace Prize.

    I'm dying to know what percentage of the projected seasons show all four AL West teams finishing 81-81.

  3. In 10,000 seasons it never happened, but there were 11 seasons where they all finished with 80-82 wins. Here's the average of those simulations:

    Team Div W L Team Div W L Team Div W L
    MIN AL-C 85 77 NYA AL-E 95 67 ANA AL-W 81 81
    DET AL-C 81 81 BOS AL-E 94 68 SEA AL-W 81 81
    CHA AL-C 77 85 TBA AL-E 84 78 OAK AL-W 81 81
    CLE AL-C 76 86 BAL AL-E 76 86 TEX AL-W 81 81
    KCA AL-C 71 91 TOR AL-E 73 89
    Team Div W L Team Div W L Team Div W L
    SLN NL-C 92 70 PHI NL-E 88 74 LAN NL-W 87 75
    CHN NL-C 86 76 ATL NL-E 86 76 COL NL-W 86 76
    MIL NL-C 80 82 NYN NL-E 82 80 SFN NL-W 84 78
    CIN NL-C 77 85 FLO NL-E 78 84 ARI NL-W 81 81
    HOU NL-C 72 90 WAS NL-E 74 88 SDN NL-W 73 89
    PIT NL-C 67 95

    Texas made the playoffs 4 times in those seasons, even winning 1 World Series; Seattle got in once; Oakland got in once; Los Angaheim made the playoffs 5 times and lost a World Series to the Rockies.

  4. DoubleDiamond Says:

    More likely Rigoberta Menchú Tum and a shared prize between Nelson Mandela and Frederik Willem de Klerk. (OK, I know I'm being too serious right now. Jimmy Carter winning it in Joe Carter's year or as a consolation prize in a year that included a Braves World Series loss would have been more poetic.)

  5. [...] Neil Paine ran the numbers. [...]