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2010 Marcel Projected Standings: National League West

Posted by Neil Paine on March 16, 2010

NOTE: This is my attempt to predict the standings for the 2010 MLB season using Tom Tango's Marcel projection system. For NL East projections and more background info on how these projections work, go here. For NL Central projections, go here.

Rk Team Div W L Plyff wLDS wLCS wWS
1 LAN NL-W 85.7 76.3 47.6% 23.4% 12.1% 5.5%
2 COL NL-W 83.0 79.0 29.1% 12.9% 6.0% 2.6%
3 SFN NL-W 81.8 80.2 21.1% 9.7% 4.2% 1.8%
4 ARI NL-W 81.5 80.5 20.3% 9.2% 4.1% 1.6%
5 SDN NL-W 75.8 86.2 4.4% 1.7% 0.6% 0.2%

1. Los Angeles Dodgers

Lineup BA OBP SLG wOBA
1 SS Rafael Furcal 0.273 0.341 0.391 0.324
2 CF Matt Kemp 0.300 0.355 0.484 0.362
3 RF Andre Ethier 0.283 0.361 0.488 0.358
4 LF Manny Ramirez 0.289 0.389 0.509 0.368
5 1B James Loney 0.293 0.358 0.444 0.342
6 3B Casey Blake 0.266 0.340 0.441 0.331
7 C Russell Martin 0.273 0.369 0.400 0.340
8 2B Blake DeWitt 0.267 0.343 0.411 0.323
Bench
C Brad Ausmus 0.237 0.311 0.339 0.285
IF Ronnie Belliard 0.274 0.336 0.438 0.336
IF Jamey Carroll 0.259 0.337 0.346 0.305
OF Garret Anderson 0.271 0.312 0.415 0.310
OF Reed Johnson 0.265 0.331 0.395 0.316
Starting Rotation ERA K/9 BB/9 HR/9
1 LHP Clayton Kershaw 3.31 9.1 4.2 0.6
2 RHP Chad Billingsley 3.64 8.5 3.7 0.8
3 RHP Hiroki Kuroda 3.90 6.4 2.4 0.9
4 RHP Vicente Padilla 4.50 6.5 3.6 1.1
5 RHP James McDonald 3.90 7.4 3.9 0.9
Bullpen
CL RHP Jonathan Broxton 3.21 10.7 3.3 0.6
SU LHP George Sherrill 3.32 8.2 3.9 0.8
SU RHP Ronald Belisario 3.30 7.7 3.6 0.8
MID LHP Hong-Chih Kuo 3.60 8.6 3.2 0.7
MID RHP Ramon Troncoso 3.47 6.9 3.5 0.6
MID RHP Cory Wade 3.72 6.8 2.9 1.0
LR RHP Jeff Weaver 4.39 6.6 3.4 1.0
Win Scan Prob
<=65 0.1%
66-70 0.6%
71-75 4.6%
76-80 14.7%
81-85 28.8%
86-90 29.0%
91-95 16.7%
96-100 4.7%
101-105 0.9%
>=106 0.1%

What a typical Dodgers World Championship season looks like:

Team Div W L Team Div W L Team Div W L
MIN AL-C 85 77 NYA AL-E 94 68 TEX AL-W 82 80
DET AL-C 81 81 BOS AL-E 90 72 SEA AL-W 80 82
CHA AL-C 79 83 TBA AL-E 87 75 ANA AL-W 80 82
CLE AL-C 76 86 BAL AL-E 76 86 OAK AL-W 79 83
KCA AL-C 70 92 TOR AL-E 73 89
Team Div W L Team Div W L Team Div W L
SLN NL-C 89 73 ATL NL-E 88 74 LAN NL-W 91 71
CHN NL-C 86 76 PHI NL-E 87 75 COL NL-W 82 80
MIL NL-C 82 80 NYN NL-E 81 81 SFN NL-W 81 81
CIN NL-C 75 87 FLO NL-E 80 82 ARI NL-W 81 81
HOU NL-C 74 88 WAS NL-E 74 88 SDN NL-W 76 86
PIT NL-C 70 92

2. Colorado Rockies

Lineup BA OBP SLG wOBA
1 LF Carlos Gonzalez 0.273 0.332 0.455 0.335
2 CF Dexter Fowler 0.272 0.360 0.424 0.340
3 1B Todd Helton 0.293 0.394 0.448 0.363
4 SS Troy Tulowitzki 0.287 0.363 0.490 0.360
5 RF Brad Hawpe 0.279 0.375 0.501 0.369
6 3B Ian Stewart 0.251 0.339 0.466 0.342
7 C Chris Iannetta 0.249 0.357 0.458 0.352
8 2B Clint Barmes 0.259 0.306 0.435 0.314
Bench
C Miguel Olivo 0.247 0.287 0.441 0.309
1B Jason Giambi 0.227 0.344 0.430 0.337
IF Melvin Mora 0.262 0.323 0.407 0.315
OF Seth Smith 0.285 0.365 0.479 0.363
OF Ryan Spilborghs 0.267 0.341 0.430 0.336
Starting Rotation ERA K/9 BB/9 HR/9
1 RHP Ubaldo Jimenez 3.71 8.0 3.9 0.6
2 RHP Aaron Cook 4.05 4.7 2.6 0.8
3 LHP Jorge de la Rosa 4.56 8.5 4.0 1.0
4 RHP Jason Hammel 4.40 6.7 2.9 1.0
5 LHP Jeff Francis 4.38 6.8 3.2 1.1
Bullpen
CL RHP Huston Street 3.57 9.0 2.9 0.9
SU LHP Franklin Morales 4.33 7.3 4.0 0.8
SU RHP Matt Daley 4.24 8.1 3.4 1.1
MID RHP Rafael Betancourt 3.60 8.4 3.2 0.9
MID RHP Manny Corpas 4.14 6.7 2.9 0.9
MID LHP Randy Flores 4.50 7.1 3.7 0.8
LR RHP Matt Belisle 4.98 6.6 2.7 1.3
Win Scan Prob
<=65 0.3%
66-70 2.2%
71-75 9.1%
76-80 23.4%
81-85 30.1%
86-90 23.2%
91-95 9.3%
96-100 2.3%
101-105 0.2%
>=106 0.0%

What a typical Colorado World Championship season looks like:

Team Div W L Team Div W L Team Div W L
MIN AL-C 85 77 NYA AL-E 95 67 TEX AL-W 82 80
DET AL-C 81 81 BOS AL-E 91 71 ANA AL-W 81 81
CHA AL-C 79 83 TBA AL-E 87 75 SEA AL-W 81 81
CLE AL-C 76 86 BAL AL-E 77 85 OAK AL-W 78 84
KCA AL-C 70 92 TOR AL-E 73 89
Team Div W L Team Div W L Team Div W L
SLN NL-C 89 73 ATL NL-E 87 75 COL NL-W 90 72
CHN NL-C 86 76 PHI NL-E 86 76 LAN NL-W 84 78
MIL NL-C 82 80 NYN NL-E 81 81 SFN NL-W 81 81
CIN NL-C 76 86 FLO NL-E 80 82 ARI NL-W 80 82
HOU NL-C 74 88 WAS NL-E 73 89 SDN NL-W 76 86
PIT NL-C 69 93

3. San Francisco Giants

Lineup BA OBP SLG wOBA
1 CF Aaron Rowand 0.270 0.336 0.430 0.331
2 2B Freddy Sanchez 0.281 0.319 0.407 0.313
3 3B Pablo Sandoval 0.327 0.382 0.535 0.382
4 C Bengie Molina 0.269 0.300 0.429 0.308
5 1B Aubrey Huff 0.267 0.329 0.443 0.328
6 LF Mark DeRosa 0.264 0.341 0.435 0.338
7 RF Nate Schierholtz 0.281 0.327 0.426 0.323
8 SS Edgar Renteria 0.271 0.327 0.385 0.312
Bench
C Eli Whiteside 0.251 0.312 0.391 0.305
1B Travis Ishikawa 0.267 0.335 0.406 0.322
IF Juan Uribe 0.259 0.309 0.429 0.310
IF/OF Eugenio Velez 0.267 0.318 0.409 0.314
OF Andres Torres 0.264 0.336 0.465 0.344
Starting Rotation ERA K/9 BB/9 HR/9
1 RHP Tim Lincecum 2.86 10.1 3.1 0.5
2 RHP Matt Cain 3.35 7.5 3.3 0.8
3 LHP Jonathan Sanchez 4.44 9.1 4.4 1.0
4 LHP Barry Zito 4.40 6.7 4.1 0.9
5 LHP Madison Bumgarner 3.69 7.6 3.2 0.9
Bullpen
CL RHP Brian Wilson 3.63 8.9 3.5 0.8
SU LHP Jeremy Affeldt 3.23 7.9 3.8 0.8
SU RHP Sergio Romo 3.80 8.4 3.2 0.8
MID RHP Brandon Medders 3.84 7.1 4.0 1.0
MID LHP Dan Runzler 3.72 7.8 3.7 0.9
MID RHP Guillermo Mota 4.14 6.6 3.7 1.0
LR RHP Waldis Joaquin 4.20 7.8 3.6 0.9
Win Scan Prob
<=65 0.5%
66-70 3.2%
71-75 12.4%
76-80 26.0%
81-85 30.6%
86-90 19.4%
91-95 6.5%
96-100 1.4%
101-105 0.2%
>=106 0.0%

What a typical San Francisco World Championship season looks like:

Team Div W L Team Div W L Team Div W L
MIN AL-C 85 77 NYA AL-E 95 67 TEX AL-W 82 80
DET AL-C 82 80 BOS AL-E 90 72 ANA AL-W 81 81
CHA AL-C 80 82 TBA AL-E 87 75 SEA AL-W 81 81
CLE AL-C 76 86 BAL AL-E 75 87 OAK AL-W 79 83
KCA AL-C 70 92 TOR AL-E 73 89
Team Div W L Team Div W L Team Div W L
SLN NL-C 90 72 ATL NL-E 88 74 SFN NL-W 90 72
CHN NL-C 87 75 PHI NL-E 87 75 LAN NL-W 84 78
MIL NL-C 81 81 NYN NL-E 81 81 COL NL-W 81 81
CIN NL-C 75 87 FLO NL-E 80 82 ARI NL-W 79 83
HOU NL-C 74 88 WAS NL-E 75 87 SDN NL-W 75 87
PIT NL-C 69 93

4. Arizona Diamondbacks

Lineup BA OBP SLG wOBA
1 SS Stephen Drew 0.269 0.330 0.444 0.328
2 2B Kelly Johnson 0.266 0.345 0.432 0.334
3 RF Justin Upton 0.286 0.364 0.506 0.369
4 3B Mark Reynolds 0.260 0.342 0.503 0.360
5 C Miguel Montero 0.276 0.344 0.456 0.339
6 1B Adam LaRoche 0.269 0.344 0.473 0.343
7 CF Chris Young 0.239 0.315 0.440 0.326
8 1B Conor Jackson 0.277 0.356 0.435 0.347
Bench
C Chris Snyder 0.240 0.343 0.427 0.327
IF Tony Abreu 0.272 0.337 0.424 0.328
IF Augie Ojeda 0.248 0.334 0.350 0.302
IF/OF Ryan Roberts 0.271 0.353 0.419 0.337
OF Gerardo Parra 0.293 0.341 0.426 0.328
Starting Rotation ERA K/9 BB/9 HR/9
1 RHP Dan Haren 3.31 8.4 2.0 1.0
2 RHP Edwin Jackson 4.18 6.6 3.5 1.2
3 RHP Brandon Webb 3.49 7.3 3.0 0.6
4 RHP Ian Kennedy 4.97 6.8 4.0 1.1
5 RHP Billy Buckner 5.02 7.2 3.5 1.2
Bullpen
CL RHP Chad Qualls 3.57 7.9 2.6 0.9
SU RHP Juan Gutierrez 4.13 7.7 3.5 0.7
SU RHP Bobby Howry 4.22 7.0 3.0 1.0
MID RHP Aaron Heilman 4.17 7.8 4.0 1.0
MID RHP Esmerling Vasquez 4.24 7.4 4.1 0.9
MID LHP Clay Zavada 3.71 7.9 3.7 0.9
LR LHP Zach Kroenke 4.32 7.2 3.6 1.1
Win Scan Prob
<=65 0.5%
66-70 3.4%
71-75 13.0%
76-80 26.6%
81-85 30.2%
86-90 18.5%
91-95 6.6%
96-100 1.2%
101-105 0.1%
>=106 0.0%

What a typical Arizona World Championship season looks like:

Team Div W L Team Div W L Team Div W L
MIN AL-C 84 78 NYA AL-E 94 68 TEX AL-W 82 80
CHA AL-C 81 81 BOS AL-E 90 72 ANA AL-W 81 81
DET AL-C 81 81 TBA AL-E 87 75 SEA AL-W 80 82
CLE AL-C 77 85 BAL AL-E 76 86 OAK AL-W 80 82
KCA AL-C 71 91 TOR AL-E 72 90
Team Div W L Team Div W L Team Div W L
SLN NL-C 90 72 ATL NL-E 88 74 ARI NL-W 90 72
CHN NL-C 86 76 PHI NL-E 86 76 LAN NL-W 83 79
MIL NL-C 81 81 NYN NL-E 82 80 COL NL-W 81 81
CIN NL-C 76 86 FLO NL-E 80 82 SFN NL-W 79 83
HOU NL-C 75 87 WAS NL-E 73 89 SDN NL-W 76 86
PIT NL-C 68 94

5. San Diego Padres

Lineup BA OBP SLG wOBA
1 CF Tony Gwynn, Jr. 0.265 0.343 0.366 0.315
2 2B David Eckstein 0.267 0.330 0.351 0.301
3 1B Adrian Gonzalez 0.277 0.373 0.512 0.366
4 LF Kyle Blanks 0.268 0.354 0.480 0.356
5 3B Chase Headley 0.270 0.345 0.411 0.334
6 RF Will Venable 0.263 0.333 0.436 0.332
7 C Nick Hundley 0.251 0.315 0.407 0.315
8 SS Everth Cabrera 0.267 0.351 0.402 0.328
Bench
C Yorvit Torrealba 0.262 0.327 0.392 0.309
IF/OF Jerry Hairston, Jr 0.259 0.323 0.404 0.313
IF/OF Oscar Salazar 0.278 0.347 0.463 0.346
OF Scott Hairston 0.257 0.314 0.458 0.330
OF Matt Stairs 0.246 0.337 0.428 0.327
Starting Rotation ERA K/9 BB/9 HR/9
1 RHP Chris Young 4.17 7.4 4.2 1.0
2 RHP Kevin Correia 4.30 6.5 3.3 0.9
3 RHP Jon Garland 4.25 5.0 2.9 1.0
4 LHP Clayton Richard 4.36 6.9 3.8 1.0
5 RHP Mat Latos 4.24 7.3 3.6 1.1
Bullpen
CL RHP Heath Bell 3.31 8.5 3.3 0.7
SU RHP Mike Adams 3.06 8.6 3.1 0.9
SU RHP Luke Gregerson 3.71 9.0 3.6 0.7
MID LHP Joe Thatcher 4.14 8.1 3.6 0.9
MID RHP Sean Gallagher 4.64 7.6 4.2 1.0
MID RHP Ryan Webb 4.03 7.1 3.6 0.9
LR RHP Ed Mujica 4.44 7.2 2.6 1.2
Win Scan Prob
<=65 5.2%
66-70 14.7%
71-75 28.3%
76-80 29.5%
81-85 16.0%
86-90 5.5%
91-95 0.8%
96-100 0.1%
101-105 0.0%
>=106 0.0%

What a typical San Diego World Championship season looks like:

Team Div W L Team Div W L Team Div W L
MIN AL-C 88 74 NYA AL-E 95 67 SEA AL-W 82 80
DET AL-C 82 80 BOS AL-E 88 74 TEX AL-W 82 80
CLE AL-C 78 84 TBA AL-E 84 78 OAK AL-W 81 81
CHA AL-C 78 84 BAL AL-E 75 87 ANA AL-W 80 82
KCA AL-C 69 93 TOR AL-E 74 88
Team Div W L Team Div W L Team Div W L
SLN NL-C 89 73 ATL NL-E 87 75 SDN NL-W 88 74
CHN NL-C 84 78 PHI NL-E 87 75 LAN NL-W 84 78
MIL NL-C 81 81 NYN NL-E 81 81 ARI NL-W 81 81
HOU NL-C 76 86 FLO NL-E 80 82 COL NL-W 80 82
CIN NL-C 75 87 WAS NL-E 74 88 SFN NL-W 79 83
PIT NL-C 69 93

This entry was posted on Tuesday, March 16th, 2010 at 4:04 am and is filed under Season Preview. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. Both comments and pings are currently closed.

4 Responses to “2010 Marcel Projected Standings: National League West”

  1. Interesting. I have my own projection system (which beat Marcel, CHONE ZiPS and PECOTA last year), which is a blend of several things, and it has the exact same order for the teams. The only difference is that the first three are about 3 wins higher and the last two about 3 wins lower.

  2. Tangotiger Says:

    Whiz: Why don't you enter it into a competition. Email me:
    tom~tangotiger~net

  3. Tom,

    What competition? I will be entering it in the DugoutCentral.com Challenge, assuming they run it this year (which means assuming I run it this year, since I ran it last year :-)).

    Not that it can't be used in more than one place, I just want to know what I'm getting into...

  4. [...] 2010 Marcel Projected Standings: National League West (Baseball-Reference) Neil Paine has the Padres at 76-86, which seems just about right to me. [...]