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2010 Marcel Projected Standings: National League Central

Posted by Neil Paine on March 15, 2010

NOTE: This is my attempt to predict the standings for the 2010 MLB season using Tom Tango's Marcel projection system. For more background info on how these projections work, go here.

Rk Team Div W L Plyff wLDS wLCS wWS
1 SLN NL-C 90.1 71.9 70.8% 38.9% 21.5% 10.6%
2 CHN NL-C 86.7 75.3 46.2% 22.7% 11.1% 5.3%
3 MIL NL-C 82.0 80.0 18.0% 8.3% 3.6% 1.5%
4 CIN NL-C 75.3 86.7 2.6% 0.9% 0.2% 0.1%
5 HOU NL-C 74.0 88.0 1.6% 0.5% 0.2% 0.0%
6 PIT NL-C 69.5 92.5 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%

1. St. Louis Cardinals

Lineup BA OBP SLG wOBA
1 2B Skip Schumaker 0.297 0.356 0.405 0.336
2 CF Colby Rasmus 0.265 0.327 0.427 0.323
3 1B Albert Pujols 0.323 0.428 0.600 0.405
4 LF Matt Holliday 0.312 0.392 0.529 0.393
5 RF Ryan Ludwick 0.273 0.344 0.492 0.354
6 C Yadier Molina 0.288 0.353 0.389 0.325
7 3B David Freese 0.280 0.347 0.440 0.341
8 SS Brendan Ryan 0.277 0.336 0.392 0.319
Bench
C Jason LaRue 0.221 0.294 0.348 0.282
IF Felipe Lopez 0.279 0.349 0.396 0.326
IF Julio Lugo 0.253 0.324 0.364 0.308
IF/OF Joe Mather 0.262 0.332 0.450 0.336
OF Nick Stavinoha 0.248 0.299 0.391 0.296
Starting Rotation ERA K/9 BB/9 HR/9
1 RHP Chris Carpenter 2.92 6.6 2.4 0.5
2 RHP Adam Wainwright 3.13 7.4 2.8 0.7
3 RHP Kyle Lohse 4.24 5.9 2.8 1.0
4 RHP Brad Penny 4.53 6.0 3.3 0.9
5 RHP Kyle McClellan 3.82 7.2 3.7 0.8
Bullpen
CL RHP Ryan Franklin 3.43 6.3 3.4 0.9
SU LHP Trever Miller 3.88 8.1 3.5 0.9
SU RHP Jason Motte 4.17 8.0 3.5 1.2
MID LHP Dennys Reyes 3.60 7.2 4.0 0.7
MID RHP Josh Kinney 4.64 6.8 3.8 1.1
MID RHP Blake Hawksworth 3.40 6.4 3.4 0.8
LR RHP Mitchell Boggs 4.56 6.7 4.3 0.8
Win Scan Prob
<=65 0.0%
66-70 0.0%
71-75 1.0%
76-80 5.4%
81-85 16.5%
86-90 29.6%
91-95 28.0%
96-100 14.4%
101-105 4.4%
>=106 0.6%

What a typical St. Louis World Championship season looks like:

Team Div W L Team Div W L Team Div W L
MIN AL-C 85 77 NYA AL-E 94 68 TEX AL-W 82 80
DET AL-C 81 81 BOS AL-E 91 71 ANA AL-W 81 81
CHA AL-C 79 83 TBA AL-E 86 76 SEA AL-W 80 82
CLE AL-C 76 86 BAL AL-E 76 86 OAK AL-W 79 83
KCA AL-C 70 92 TOR AL-E 73 89
Team Div W L Team Div W L Team Div W L
SLN NL-C 93 69 ATL NL-E 88 74 LAN NL-W 85 77
CHN NL-C 86 76 PHI NL-E 87 75 COL NL-W 83 79
MIL NL-C 81 81 NYN NL-E 81 81 SFN NL-W 82 80
CIN NL-C 75 87 FLO NL-E 80 82 ARI NL-W 82 80
HOU NL-C 74 88 WAS NL-E 74 88 SDN NL-W 75 87
PIT NL-C 69 93

2. Chicago Cubs

Lineup BA OBP SLG wOBA
1 SS Ryan Theriot 0.281 0.348 0.363 0.317
2 CF Kosuke Fukudome 0.255 0.357 0.403 0.329
3 1B Derrek Lee 0.289 0.369 0.498 0.371
4 3B Aramis Ramirez 0.290 0.365 0.503 0.368
5 CF Marlon Byrd 0.283 0.343 0.454 0.343
6 LF Alfonso Soriano 0.263 0.321 0.478 0.337
7 2B Jeff Baker 0.268 0.329 0.433 0.327
8 C Geovany Soto 0.266 0.351 0.463 0.347
Bench
C Koyie Hill 0.235 0.305 0.355 0.284
1B/3B Chad Tracy 0.257 0.323 0.413 0.312
1B/OF Micah Hoffpauir 0.261 0.325 0.436 0.327
IF Mike Fontenot 0.263 0.335 0.418 0.325
OF Xavier Nady 0.283 0.338 0.470 0.347
Starting Rotation ERA K/9 BB/9 HR/9
1 RHP Carlos Zambrano 3.84 7.4 3.9 0.8
2 RHP Ryan Dempster 3.60 7.7 3.3 0.9
3 RHP Randy Wells 3.41 6.1 2.9 0.8
4 LHP Tom Gorzelanny 4.88 6.9 4.0 1.1
5 LHP Ted Lilly 3.67 7.7 2.6 1.2
Bullpen
CL RHP Carlos Marmol 3.30 10.1 5.1 0.8
SU LHP John Grabow 3.65 7.2 4.2 0.9
SU RHP Jeff Gray 4.38 6.7 2.8 1.2
MID RHP Justin Berg 3.77 7.0 3.2 0.9
MID LHP John Gaub 4.32 7.0 3.6 1.1
MID RHP Jeff Stevens 4.65 7.3 3.8 1.2
LR LHP Sean Marshall 4.06 7.2 3.4 1.1
Win Scan Prob
<=65 0.1%
66-70 0.4%
71-75 3.3%
76-80 12.5%
81-85 26.6%
86-90 30.1%
91-95 19.2%
96-100 6.4%
101-105 1.4%
>=106 0.1%

What a typical Cubs World Championship season looks like (no, not this):

Team Div W L Team Div W L Team Div W L
MIN AL-C 85 77 NYA AL-E 94 68 TEX AL-W 82 80
DET AL-C 81 81 BOS AL-E 90 72 ANA AL-W 81 81
CHA AL-C 79 83 TBA AL-E 86 76 SEA AL-W 80 82
CLE AL-C 77 85 BAL AL-E 76 86 OAK AL-W 79 83
KCA AL-C 71 91 TOR AL-E 73 89
Team Div W L Team Div W L Team Div W L
CHN NL-C 92 70 ATL NL-E 87 75 LAN NL-W 86 76
SLN NL-C 88 74 PHI NL-E 86 76 COL NL-W 83 79
MIL NL-C 81 81 NYN NL-E 81 81 SFN NL-W 81 81
CIN NL-C 75 87 FLO NL-E 80 82 ARI NL-W 81 81
HOU NL-C 74 88 WAS NL-E 74 88 SDN NL-W 76 86
PIT NL-C 69 93

3. Milwaukee Brewers

Lineup BA OBP SLG wOBA
1 2B Rickie Weeks 0.247 0.351 0.436 0.347
2 3B Casey McGehee 0.287 0.348 0.465 0.347
3 LF Ryan Braun 0.304 0.363 0.557 0.391
4 1B Prince Fielder 0.290 0.393 0.564 0.388
5 RF Corey Hart 0.272 0.329 0.464 0.338
6 C Gregg Zaun 0.244 0.333 0.390 0.316
7 CF Carlos Gomez 0.254 0.308 0.369 0.300
9 SS Alcides Escobar 0.290 0.347 0.427 0.337
Bench
C George Kottaras 0.259 0.332 0.424 0.328
1B/3B Mat Gamel 0.267 0.348 0.438 0.337
IF Craig Counsell 0.246 0.333 0.353 0.305
IF/OF Joe Inglett 0.280 0.345 0.405 0.328
OF Jody Gerut 0.259 0.315 0.430 0.322
Starting Rotation ERA K/9 BB/9 HR/9
1 RHP Yovani Gallardo 3.62 9.2 3.9 0.9
2 LHP Randy Wolf 3.82 7.1 3.0 1.0
3 LHP Doug Davis 4.24 6.7 4.3 1.0
4 RHP Jeff Suppan 4.87 5.0 3.7 1.2
5 RHP Dave Bush 4.90 6.4 2.8 1.3
Bullpen
CL RHP Trevor Hoffman 3.47 7.4 2.8 0.8
SU RHP LaTroy Hawkins 3.57 6.6 3.1 0.9
SU RHP Todd Coffey 3.78 6.9 3.0 1.0
MID LHP Mitch Stetter 3.96 8.1 4.5 0.9
MID RHP Carlos Villanueva 4.40 7.8 3.3 1.2
MID RHP Claudio Vargas 4.02 6.8 3.5 1.0
LR LHP Manny Parra 5.00 7.6 4.3 1.1
Win Scan Prob
<=65 0.5%
66-70 2.9%
71-75 12.1%
76-80 25.2%
81-85 30.1%
86-90 20.5%
91-95 7.4%
96-100 1.4%
101-105 0.1%
>=106 0.0%

What a typical Milwaukee World Championship season looks like:

Team Div W L Team Div W L Team Div W L
MIN AL-C 85 77 NYA AL-E 94 68 TEX AL-W 83 79
DET AL-C 82 80 BOS AL-E 90 72 ANA AL-W 80 82
CHA AL-C 80 82 TBA AL-E 86 76 SEA AL-W 80 82
CLE AL-C 77 85 BAL AL-E 76 86 OAK AL-W 79 83
KCA AL-C 70 92 TOR AL-E 73 89
Team Div W L Team Div W L Team Div W L
MIL NL-C 91 71 ATL NL-E 87 75 LAN NL-W 84 78
SLN NL-C 87 75 PHI NL-E 87 75 COL NL-W 84 78
CHN NL-C 85 77 FLO NL-E 80 82 SFN NL-W 82 80
CIN NL-C 75 87 NYN NL-E 80 82 ARI NL-W 81 81
HOU NL-C 73 89 WAS NL-E 74 88 SDN NL-W 76 86
PIT NL-C 70 92

4. Cincinnati Reds

Lineup BA OBP SLG wOBA
1 CF Drew Stubbs 0.272 0.338 0.440 0.337
2 SS Orlando Cabrera 0.276 0.323 0.381 0.310
3 1B Joey Votto 0.307 0.387 0.526 0.382
4 2B Brandon Phillips 0.271 0.323 0.447 0.330
5 3B Scott Rolen 0.272 0.342 0.419 0.332
6 RF Jay Bruce 0.254 0.326 0.471 0.338
7 LF Chris Dickerson 0.279 0.369 0.433 0.354
8 C Ramon Hernandez 0.253 0.321 0.385 0.308
Bench
C Ryan Hanigan 0.265 0.353 0.366 0.313
1B/OF Jonny Gomes 0.248 0.326 0.471 0.341
IF Paul Janish 0.233 0.313 0.351 0.294
IF Aaron Miles 0.268 0.314 0.358 0.293
OF Wladimir Balentien 0.240 0.306 0.395 0.302
Starting Rotation ERA K/9 BB/9 HR/9
1 RHP Aaron Harang 4.25 7.8 2.6 1.3
2 RHP Bronson Arroyo 4.17 6.3 3.0 1.2
3 RHP Johnny Cueto 4.31 7.6 3.3 1.2
4 RHP Homer Bailey 4.65 6.8 3.9 1.1
5 LHP Matt Maloney 4.39 7.0 2.9 1.2
Bullpen
CL RHP Francisco Cordero 3.32 8.3 4.0 0.7
SU RHP Nick Masset 3.60 7.3 3.5 0.9
SU LHP Arthur Rhodes 3.44 7.7 3.8 0.7
MID LHP Danny Herrera 3.79 6.9 3.5 0.9
MID RHP Jared Burton 3.84 7.4 3.7 0.9
MID RHP Mike Lincoln 4.91 6.5 4.1 1.2
LR RHP Micah Owings 4.90 6.4 4.0 1.2
Win Scan Prob
<=65 6.2%
66-70 16.1%
71-75 28.8%
76-80 27.8%
81-85 15.8%
86-90 4.4%
91-95 0.7%
96-100 0.1%
101-105 0.0%
>=106 0.0%

What a typical Cincinnati World Championship season looks like:

Team Div W L Team Div W L Team Div W L
MIN AL-C 84 78 NYA AL-E 97 65 ANA AL-W 85 77
CHA AL-C 83 79 BOS AL-E 91 72 SEA AL-W 80 82
DET AL-C 82 80 TBA AL-E 86 77 OAK AL-W 79 83
CLE AL-C 75 87 BAL AL-E 81 82 TEX AL-W 78 84
KCA AL-C 66 96 TOR AL-E 70 92
Team Div W L Team Div W L Team Div W L
CIN NL-C 90 72 ATL NL-E 87 76 LAN NL-W 84 78
SLN NL-C 86 77 PHI NL-E 84 79 COL NL-W 82 80
CHN NL-C 85 77 FLO NL-E 80 82 SFN NL-W 81 81
MIL NL-C 84 78 NYN NL-E 79 83 ARI NL-W 80 83
HOU NL-C 79 83 WAS NL-E 74 88 SDN NL-W 74 88
PIT NL-C 68 94

5. Houston Astros

Lineup BA OBP SLG wOBA
1 CF Michael Bourn 0.267 0.333 0.369 0.321
2 2B Kaz Matsui 0.264 0.323 0.383 0.312
3 1B Lance Berkman 0.278 0.387 0.507 0.373
4 LF Carlos Lee 0.292 0.344 0.497 0.353
5 RF Hunter Pence 0.284 0.340 0.480 0.350
6 3B Pedro Feliz 0.252 0.300 0.395 0.299
7 C J.R Towles 0.229 0.311 0.388 0.300
8 SS Tommy Manzella 0.267 0.338 0.433 0.334
Bench
C Humberto Quintero 0.244 0.301 0.364 0.288
IF Geoff Blum 0.243 0.306 0.382 0.297
IF Jeff Keppinger 0.270 0.329 0.392 0.311
OF Jason Michaels 0.245 0.314 0.394 0.305
OF Cory Sullivan 0.260 0.332 0.388 0.318
Starting Rotation ERA K/9 BB/9 HR/9
1 RHP Roy Oswalt 3.84 6.9 2.5 0.9
2 LHP Wandy Rodriguez 3.56 8.1 3.0 1.0
3 RHP Brett Myers 4.45 7.5 3.3 1.5
4 RHP Brian Moehler 4.91 5.5 3.0 1.2
5 RHP Bud Norris 4.24 7.8 3.6 1.2
Bullpen
CL RHP Brandon Lyon 3.86 6.4 3.2 0.9
SU RHP Matt Lindstrom 4.33 7.3 3.8 0.7
SU RHP Jeff Fulchino 4.16 7.5 3.4 0.9
MID LHP Tim Byrdak 3.84 7.7 4.6 1.2
MID RHP Chris Sampson 4.37 5.5 2.8 0.8
MID RHP Alberto Arias 3.88 7.2 3.7 0.7
LR LHP Wesley Wright 4.58 8.3 4.2 1.2
Win Scan Prob
<=65 8.8%
66-70 20.2%
71-75 31.2%
76-80 24.7%
81-85 11.9%
86-90 2.9%
91-95 0.4%
96-100 0.0%
101-105 0.0%
>=106 0.0%

What a typical Houston World Championship season looks like:

Team Div W L Team Div W L Team Div W L
CHA AL-C 82 80 BOS AL-E 93 69 ANA AL-W 85 77
MIN AL-C 79 83 NYA AL-E 92 70 SEA AL-W 85 77
DET AL-C 78 84 TBA AL-E 86 76 TEX AL-W 80 82
CLE AL-C 77 85 BAL AL-E 79 83 OAK AL-W 77 85
KCA AL-C 74 88 TOR AL-E 72 90
Team Div W L Team Div W L Team Div W L
HOU NL-C 90 72 PHI NL-E 92 70 ARI NL-W 91 71
CHN NL-C 87 75 ATL NL-E 86 76 LAN NL-W 84 78
SLN NL-C 85 77 NYN NL-E 79 83 SFN NL-W 82 80
MIL NL-C 81 81 FLO NL-E 77 85 COL NL-W 79 83
CIN NL-C 74 88 WAS NL-E 67 95 SDN NL-W 75 87
PIT NL-C 62 100

6. Pittsburgh Pirates

Lineup BA OBP SLG wOBA
1 CF Andrew McCutchen 0.289 0.366 0.471 0.365
2 2B Akinori Iwamura 0.274 0.348 0.395 0.328
3 RF Garrett Jones 0.275 0.349 0.499 0.355
4 C Ryan Doumit 0.277 0.332 0.456 0.334
5 LF Lastings Milledge 0.278 0.340 0.418 0.331
6 3B Andy LaRoche 0.245 0.326 0.380 0.310
7 1B Jeff Clement 0.258 0.330 0.409 0.322
8 SS Ronny Cedeno 0.239 0.297 0.371 0.286
Bench
C Jason Jaramillo 0.262 0.326 0.404 0.316
IF Bobby Crosby 0.235 0.299 0.363 0.292
IF/OF Delwyn Young 0.267 0.333 0.395 0.321
OF Ryan Church 0.268 0.339 0.418 0.325
OF John Raynor 0.266 0.339 0.424 0.332
Starting Rotation ERA K/9 BB/9 HR/9
1 LHP Zach Duke 4.28 4.9 2.4 1.0
2 LHP Paul Maholm 4.15 6.0 2.9 0.8
3 RHP Ross Ohlendorf 4.31 6.3 3.2 1.2
4 RHP Charlie Morton 4.70 6.3 3.8 0.9
5 RHP Kevin Hart 4.83 6.7 4.3 1.0
Bullpen
CL RHP Octavio Dotel 4.00 9.4 4.1 1.3
SU RHP Brendan Donnelly 4.15 7.2 3.7 0.9
SU RHP Evan Meek 3.96 7.4 4.3 0.9
MID RHP D.J. Carrasco 4.14 6.4 3.2 0.7
MID LHP Javier Lopez 4.14 6.1 3.9 1.0
MID RHP Brian Bass 4.73 5.9 3.8 1.2
LR RHP Chris Jakubauskas 5.01 5.7 3.1 1.3
Win Scan Prob
<=65 26.4%
66-70 30.0%
71-75 26.7%
76-80 12.9%
81-85 3.5%
86-90 0.4%
91-95 0.0%
96-100 0.0%
101-105 0.0%
>=106 0.0%

What a typical Pittsburgh World Championship season looks like:

Team Div W L Team Div W L Team Div W L
DET AL-C 82 80 NYA AL-E 98 64 SEA AL-W 89 73
KCA AL-C 80 82 BOS AL-E 92 70 ANA AL-W 79 83
MIN AL-C 79 83 TBA AL-E 90 72 TEX AL-W 79 83
CHA AL-C 77 85 BAL AL-E 77 85 OAK AL-W 73 89
CLE AL-C 72 90 TOR AL-E 72 90
Team Div W L Team Div W L Team Div W L
PIT NL-C 89 73 NYN NL-E 85 77 SFN NL-W 83 79
CHN NL-C 88 74 PHI NL-E 85 77 ARI NL-W 81 81
SLN NL-C 88 74 ATL NL-E 83 79 SDN NL-W 80 82
MIL NL-C 81 81 FLO NL-E 75 87 COL NL-W 78 84
CIN NL-C 77 85 WAS NL-E 70 92 LAN NL-W 77 85
HOU NL-C 71 91

This entry was posted on Monday, March 15th, 2010 at 11:14 am and is filed under Season Preview. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. Both comments and pings are currently closed.

2 Responses to “2010 Marcel Projected Standings: National League Central”

  1. [...] 2010 Marcel Projected Standings: BNational/B BLeague/B Central NOTE: This is my attempt to predict the standings for the 2010 BMLB/B season using Tom Tango’s Marcel projection system. [...]

  2. [...] NOTE: This is my attempt to predict the standings for the 2010 MLB season using Tom Tango's Marcel projection system. For NL East projections and more background info on how these projections work, go here. For NL Central projections, go here. [...]