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2010 Marcel Projected Standings: National League East

Posted by Neil Paine on March 14, 2010

Everyone loves projected standings at this time of the year, since it gives us another baseball-related topic to argue about before the games start to count for real in a few weeks. With that in mind, I thought I'd throw another batch of projections out there to join the great work by Sean Smith, Baseball Prospectus, and others. The projection system of choice? Marcel the Monkey, of course, since it's completely open-source, surprisingly accurate given its simplicity, and at the very least should provide a decent sanity check against other, more sophisticated methods.

The other component of any team-projection method is allocating playing time, and for that I used a great site that's only been around for a year or so, called MLB Depth Charts. They offer downloadable depth charts in spreadsheet form, updated every day, so you should definitely check them out (the set I used was from last Thursday, 3/11/2010). I allocated playing time based on how teams over the past 3 years had used their players: AL teams gave 90% of their outs to their 9 starting batters and top 4 bench players, NL teams gave 84% of their outs to their top 8 hitters and top 5 bench players, teams in both leagues gave 31% of their pitching outs to their top 7 relievers, etc. This method isn't perfect, but it's also fairly accurate without me having to introduce any biases into the process, which was important if this was going to be done in the spirit of the Marcels (motto: the "dumbest" possible projections).

All that was left was to use the resulting team strength estimates to simulate the 2010 schedule 10,000 times, Monte Carlo-style... Here's what the method saw in the cards for the NL East:

Rk Team Div W L Plyff wLDS wLCS wWS
1 ATL NL-E 88.2 73.8 59.5% 31.6% 17.0% 8.4%
2 PHI NL-E 87.4 74.6 51.9% 28.2% 14.4% 7.0%
3 NYN NL-E 80.6 81.4 13.2% 5.8% 2.7% 1.3%
4 FLO NL-E 80.1 81.9 11.9% 5.5% 2.3% 0.9%
5 WAS NL-E 73.7 88.3 1.7% 0.7% 0.2% 0.1%

1. Atlanta Braves

Lineup BA OBP SLG wOBA
1 CF Nate McLouth 0.264 0.352 0.461 0.352
2 2B Martin Prado 0.303 0.360 0.458 0.349
3 3B Chipper Jones 0.296 0.399 0.490 0.375
4 C Brian McCann 0.287 0.354 0.492 0.359
5 1B Troy Glaus 0.257 0.354 0.456 0.351
6 SS Yunel Escobar 0.294 0.369 0.428 0.345
7 LF Melky Cabrera 0.271 0.331 0.403 0.319
8 RF Matt Diaz 0.294 0.352 0.445 0.344
Bench
C David Ross 0.236 0.328 0.406 0.313
IF Omar Infante 0.283 0.338 0.398 0.321
IF/OF Eric Hinske 0.239 0.330 0.426 0.329
IF/OF Joe Thurston 0.239 0.322 0.365 0.298
OF Gregor Blanco 0.256 0.355 0.350 0.320
Starting Rotation ERA K/9 BB/9 HR/9
1 RHP Derek Lowe 4.10 6.0 2.8 0.8
2 RHP Jair Jurrjens 3.15 6.8 3.2 0.7
3 RHP Tim Hudson 3.60 6.0 2.8 0.8
4 RHP Tommy Hanson 3.34 8.0 3.3 0.8
5 RHP Kenshin Kawakami 4.05 6.3 3.4 0.9
Bullpen
CL LHP Billy Wagner 3.55 8.5 3.3 0.9
SU RHP Takashi Saito 3.41 8.1 3.4 0.9
SU LHP Eric O'Flaherty 4.17 6.8 3.3 0.7
MID RHP Peter Moylan 3.34 7.1 3.8 0.6
MID RHP Jesse Chavez 4.20 7.1 3.3 1.2
MID LHP Michael Dunn 4.33 7.3 3.7 1.0
LR RHP Kris Medlen 4.14 8.3 3.6 0.9
Win Scan Prob
<=65 0.0%
66-70 0.2%
71-75 1.8%
76-80 8.8%
81-85 22.9%
86-90 30.8%
91-95 23.1%
96-100 10.0%
101-105 2.2%
>=106 0.3%

What a typical Atlanta World Championship season looks like:

Team Div W L Team Div W L Team Div W L
MIN AL-C 84 78 NYA AL-E 94 68 TEX AL-W 83 79
DET AL-C 81 81 BOS AL-E 90 72 ANA AL-W 81 81
CHA AL-C 79 83 TBA AL-E 87 75 SEA AL-W 80 82
CLE AL-C 77 85 BAL AL-E 76 86 OAK AL-W 79 83
KCA AL-C 71 91 TOR AL-E 73 89
Team Div W L Team Div W L Team Div W L
SLN NL-C 90 72 ATL NL-E 92 70 LAN NL-W 85 77
CHN NL-C 86 76 PHI NL-E 86 76 COL NL-W 83 79
MIL NL-C 82 80 FLO NL-E 80 82 SFN NL-W 82 80
CIN NL-C 76 86 NYN NL-E 80 82 ARI NL-W 81 81
HOU NL-C 74 88 WAS NL-E 73 89 SDN NL-W 76 86
PIT NL-C 69 93

2. Philadelphia Phillies

Lineup BA OBP SLG wOBA
1 SS Jimmy Rollins 0.265 0.323 0.448 0.338
2 3B Placido Polanco 0.293 0.342 0.406 0.328
3 2B Chase Utley 0.288 0.382 0.514 0.386
4 1B Ryan Howard 0.264 0.355 0.543 0.365
5 RF Jayson Werth 0.269 0.366 0.486 0.370
6 LF Raul Ibañez 0.273 0.340 0.479 0.344
7 CF Shane Victorino 0.285 0.350 0.434 0.346
8 C Carlos Ruiz 0.246 0.336 0.378 0.306
Bench
C Brian Schneider 0.240 0.322 0.366 0.298
1B/OF Ross Gload 0.267 0.322 0.392 0.307
IF Juan Castro 0.234 0.287 0.333 0.271
IF/OF Greg Dobbs 0.267 0.321 0.431 0.323
OF Ben Francisco 0.264 0.334 0.442 0.334
Starting Rotation ERA K/9 BB/9 HR/9
1 RHP Roy Halladay 3.22 7.3 1.8 0.8
2 LHP Cole Hamels 3.70 8.0 2.3 1.1
3 RHP Joe Blanton 4.17 6.6 2.8 1.1
4 LHP J. A. Happ 3.43 6.8 3.2 1.1
5 LHP Jamie Moyer 4.61 5.6 3.0 1.3
Bullpen
CL RHP Brad Lidge 4.43 9.3 4.4 1.0
SU RHP Ryan Madson 3.50 7.8 3.0 0.9
SU LHP J. C. Romero 3.46 7.2 4.8 0.9
MID RHP Danys Baez 4.43 5.9 3.4 1.2
MID RHP Chad Durbin 3.99 6.8 4.4 1.0
MID LHP Sergio Escalona 4.22 7.0 3.4 0.8
LR RHP Jose Contreras 4.70 6.4 3.5 0.9
Win Scan Prob
<=65 0.0%
66-70 0.3%
71-75 2.5%
76-80 11.2%
81-85 24.6%
86-90 30.7%
91-95 20.8%
96-100 7.9%
101-105 1.7%
>=106 0.2%

What a typical Philadelphia World Championship season looks like:

Team Div W L Team Div W L Team Div W L
MIN AL-C 85 77 NYA AL-E 94 68 TEX AL-W 82 80
DET AL-C 81 81 BOS AL-E 91 71 ANA AL-W 81 81
CHA AL-C 80 82 TBA AL-E 87 75 SEA AL-W 80 82
CLE AL-C 76 86 BAL AL-E 76 86 OAK AL-W 79 83
KCA AL-C 70 92 TOR AL-E 73 89
Team Div W L Team Div W L Team Div W L
SLN NL-C 90 72 PHI NL-E 92 70 LAN NL-W 86 76
CHN NL-C 86 76 ATL NL-E 86 76 COL NL-W 83 79
MIL NL-C 82 80 NYN NL-E 80 82 SFN NL-W 82 80
CIN NL-C 75 87 FLO NL-E 80 82 ARI NL-W 81 81
HOU NL-C 74 88 WAS NL-E 73 89 SDN NL-W 76 86
PIT NL-C 70 92

3. New York Mets

Lineup BA OBP SLG wOBA
1 CF Carlos Beltran 0.283 0.368 0.486 0.364
2 2B Luis Castillo 0.277 0.360 0.348 0.318
3 SS Jose Reyes 0.288 0.359 0.450 0.353
4 LF Jason Bay 0.264 0.358 0.491 0.365
5 3B David Wright 0.304 0.392 0.494 0.383
6 1B Daniel Murphy 0.281 0.341 0.443 0.334
7 RF Jeff Francoeur 0.273 0.319 0.419 0.316
8 C Rod Barajas 0.236 0.288 0.404 0.295
Bench
C Henry Blanco 0.243 0.309 0.378 0.298
1B Mike Jacobs 0.246 0.308 0.452 0.321
IF Alex Cora 0.251 0.323 0.352 0.295
IF/OF Fernando Tatis 0.277 0.341 0.436 0.334
CF Angel Pagan 0.285 0.340 0.453 0.338
Starting Rotation ERA K/9 BB/9 HR/9
1 LHP Johan Santana 3.13 8.1 2.6 1.0
2 RHP Mike Pelfrey 4.34 5.7 3.2 0.8
3 RHP John Maine 4.07 7.4 4.0 0.9
4 LHP Oliver Perez 4.50 8.3 5.1 1.1
5 LHP Jon Niese 4.26 7.2 3.5 0.9
Bullpen
CL RHP Francisco Rodriguez 3.41 9.3 4.4 0.8
SU RHP Ryota Igarashi 4.32 7.0 3.6 1.1
SU RHP Kiko Calero 3.60 8.3 4.1 0.7
MID LHP Pedro Feliciano 3.75 8.0 3.6 1.1
MID RHP Sean Green 4.24 7.1 4.1 0.7
MID RHP Bobby Parnell 4.62 7.4 4.0 0.9
LR RHP Fernando Nieve 4.05 6.9 3.8 1.1
Win Scan Prob
<=65 0.8%
66-70 4.6%
71-75 15.9%
76-80 28.6%
81-85 28.2%
86-90 16.4%
91-95 4.7%
96-100 0.9%
101-105 0.0%
>=106 0.0%

What a typical Mets World Championship season looks like:

Team Div W L Team Div W L Team Div W L
MIN AL-C 86 76 NYA AL-E 93 69 TEX AL-W 82 80
DET AL-C 81 81 BOS AL-E 90 72 SEA AL-W 81 81
CHA AL-C 80 82 TBA AL-E 88 74 ANA AL-W 80 82
CLE AL-C 76 86 BAL AL-E 75 87 OAK AL-W 79 83
KCA AL-C 71 91 TOR AL-E 74 88
Team Div W L Team Div W L Team Div W L
SLN NL-C 89 73 NYN NL-E 90 72 LAN NL-W 85 77
CHN NL-C 86 76 ATL NL-E 86 76 COL NL-W 83 79
MIL NL-C 82 80 PHI NL-E 84 78 SFN NL-W 81 81
CIN NL-C 76 86 FLO NL-E 79 83 ARI NL-W 81 81
HOU NL-C 74 88 WAS NL-E 74 88 SDN NL-W 76 86
PIT NL-C 68 94

4. Florida Marlins

Lineup BA OBP SLG wOBA
1 LF Chris Coghlan 0.314 0.384 0.464 0.367
2 C John Baker 0.276 0.356 0.423 0.335
3 SS Hanley Ramirez 0.321 0.396 0.537 0.397
4 3B Jorge Cantu 0.281 0.339 0.455 0.340
5 2B Dan Uggla 0.249 0.345 0.476 0.350
6 RF Cody Ross 0.270 0.328 0.484 0.346
7 1B Gaby Sanchez 0.270 0.341 0.444 0.340
8 CF Cameron Maybin 0.276 0.344 0.433 0.333
Bench
C Ronny Paulino 0.259 0.322 0.399 0.313
1B/3B Wes Helms 0.252 0.308 0.361 0.295
1B/3B Mike Lamb 0.256 0.319 0.399 0.306
IF/OF Emilio Bonifacio 0.259 0.318 0.351 0.296
OF Brett Carroll 0.244 0.315 0.392 0.306
Starting Rotation ERA K/9 BB/9 HR/9
1 RHP Josh Johnson 3.54 8.1 2.8 0.7
2 RHP Ricky Nolasco 4.32 8.4 2.3 1.1
3 RHP Anibal Sanchez 4.17 7.5 4.3 1.0
4 LHP Sean West 4.34 6.8 3.5 1.0
5 LHP Andrew Miller 4.81 7.4 4.4 0.8
Bullpen
CL RHP Leo Nuñez 3.88 7.2 3.3 1.1
SU LHP Renyel Pinto 3.92 7.8 4.9 0.9
SU RHP Brian Sanches 3.83 7.5 4.0 1.0
MID LHP Dan Meyer 4.27 7.6 3.7 1.1
MID RHP Mike MacDougal 4.33 6.7 5.0 0.7
MID LHP Taylor Tankersley 4.33 7.3 3.7 1.0
LR RHP Burke Badenhop 4.25 7.1 3.4 0.9
Win Scan Prob
<=65 1.1%
66-70 5.4%
71-75 17.1%
76-80 29.4%
81-85 27.2%
86-90 14.9%
91-95 4.1%
96-100 0.7%
101-105 0.1%
>=106 0.0%

What a typical Florida World Championship season looks like:

Team Div W L Team Div W L Team Div W L
MIN AL-C 85 77 NYA AL-E 93 69 TEX AL-W 83 79
DET AL-C 81 81 BOS AL-E 90 72 ANA AL-W 80 82
CHA AL-C 78 84 TBA AL-E 87 75 SEA AL-W 80 82
CLE AL-C 77 85 BAL AL-E 76 86 OAK AL-W 79 83
KCA AL-C 70 92 TOR AL-E 73 89
Team Div W L Team Div W L Team Div W L
SLN NL-C 89 73 FLO NL-E 90 72 LAN NL-W 86 76
CHN NL-C 86 76 ATL NL-E 86 76 COL NL-W 83 79
MIL NL-C 82 80 PHI NL-E 85 77 SFN NL-W 82 80
CIN NL-C 75 87 NYN NL-E 80 82 ARI NL-W 81 81
HOU NL-C 74 88 WAS NL-E 73 89 SDN NL-W 75 87
PIT NL-C 69 93

5. Washington Nationals

Lineup BA OBP SLG wOBA
1 CF Nyjer Morgan 0.293 0.356 0.395 0.331
2 2B Adam Kennedy 0.268 0.324 0.382 0.309
3 3B Ryan Zimmerman 0.284 0.351 0.486 0.356
4 1B Adam Dunn 0.254 0.382 0.514 0.375
5 LF Josh Willingham 0.258 0.358 0.468 0.358
6 RF Elijah Dukes 0.255 0.355 0.430 0.339
7 C Ivan Rodriguez 0.258 0.295 0.393 0.297
8 SS Cristian Guzman 0.293 0.328 0.414 0.321
Bench
C Jesus Flores 0.268 0.331 0.432 0.330
1B/OF Mike Morse 0.273 0.342 0.444 0.340
IF Alberto Gonzalez 0.263 0.314 0.376 0.300
OF Willie Harris 0.249 0.346 0.403 0.331
OF Justin Maxwell 0.265 0.340 0.439 0.340
Starting Rotation ERA K/9 BB/9 HR/9
1 LHP John Lannan 3.88 5.2 3.3 1.0
2 RHP Jason Marquis 4.26 5.3 3.6 0.8
3 RHP Craig Stammen 4.62 5.6 2.6 1.1
4 LHP Scott Olsen 4.62 6.2 3.5 1.3
5 RHP Livan Hernandez 5.29 4.8 3.2 1.1
Bullpen
CL RHP Matt Capps 4.03 7.3 2.6 1.1
SU RHP Brian Bruney 3.94 7.7 4.3 1.1
SU RHP Tyler Clippard 3.66 8.2 4.1 1.2
MID LHP Sean Burnett 3.97 7.0 4.1 1.1
MID RHP Tyler Walker 3.94 7.1 3.4 0.9
MID LHP Ron Villone 4.50 6.8 4.8 1.0
LR RHP Jason Bergmann 4.50 6.9 3.6 1.3
Win Scan Prob
<=65 10.3%
66-70 20.7%
71-75 29.7%
76-80 25.3%
81-85 11.0%
86-90 2.7%
91-95 0.4%
96-100 0.0%
101-105 0.0%
>=106 0.0%

What a typical Washington World Championship season looks like:

Team Div W L Team Div W L Team Div W L
MIN AL-C 88 74 NYA AL-E 95 67 TEX AL-W 82 80
DET AL-C 86 76 BOS AL-E 90 72 SEA AL-W 81 81
CHA AL-C 82 80 TBA AL-E 87 75 ANA AL-W 80 82
CLE AL-C 72 90 BAL AL-E 75 87 OAK AL-W 78 84
KCA AL-C 67 95 TOR AL-E 71 91
Team Div W L Team Div W L Team Div W L
CHN NL-C 90 72 WAS NL-E 88 74 COL NL-W 86 76
SLN NL-C 87 75 ATL NL-E 84 78 LAN NL-W 85 77
MIL NL-C 81 81 PHI NL-E 83 79 ARI NL-W 83 79
HOU NL-C 78 84 NYN NL-E 79 83 SFN NL-W 77 85
CIN NL-C 74 88 FLO NL-E 77 85 SDN NL-W 73 89
PIT NL-C 72 90

This entry was posted on Sunday, March 14th, 2010 at 7:11 pm and is filed under Season Preview. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. Both comments and pings are currently closed.

9 Responses to “2010 Marcel Projected Standings: National League East”

  1. [...] NOTE: This is my attempt to predict the standings for the 2010 MLB season using Tom Tango's Marcel projection system. For more background info on how these projections work, go here. [...]

  2. I think a typical Washington World Championship season looks more like this: http://www.hyscience.com/PigsFly.jpg

  3. atlantaspike Says:

    Say - why are McClouth and Heyward not included in the Braves lineup? Perhaps I am just not seeing something.

  4. atlantaspike Says:

    Never mind on McClouth.

  5. [...] system. For NL East projections and more background info on how these projections work, go here. For NL Central projections, go [...]

  6. [...] system. For NL East projections and more background info on how these projections work, go here. Other division projections: NL Central, NL [...]

  7. [...] different projection systems now have the Braves winning the NL [...]

  8. [...] system. For NL East projections and more background info on how these projections work, go here. Other division projections: NL Central, NL West, AL [...]

  9. [...] system. For NL East projections and more background info on how these projections work, go here. Other division projections: NL Central, NL West, AL East, AL [...]