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Consecutive games with 5+ runs

Posted by Andy on January 28, 2010

A commenter on yesterday's post pointed out that the Nats had two long streaks of scoring at least 5 runs per game. That's correct and here are the longest such streaks in 2009:

Rk Strk Start End Games W L R Opp
1 WSN 2009-05-10 2009-05-19 10 1 9 62 ARI,SFG,PHI,PIT
2 WSN 2009-08-01 2009-08-09 9 8 1 63 PIT,FLA,ARI
3 LAA 2009-08-10 2009-08-18 8 7 1 65 TBR,BAL,CLE
4 FLA 2009-08-08 2009-08-16 8 7 1 66 PHI,HOU,COL
5 CHC 2009-07-22 2009-07-30 8 7 1 63 PHI,CIN,HOU
6 STL 2009-04-14 2009-04-23 8 5 3 60 ARI,CHC,NYM
Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 1/27/2010.

As was mentioned yesterday, the Nationals went an amazing 1-9 in their 10-game streak. That's really quite amazing. In the National League in 2009, run scoring averaged 4.43 per game and the Nationals were right at league average. To score more than half a run above the average for 10 straight games and lose 9 of them is pretty unlikely. One of you stats gurus out there should be able to calculate the odds--it must be less than 5%.

Here are the longest streaks with at least 5 runs per game in the 2000's:

Rk Strk Start End Games W L R Opp
1 OAK 2000-04-28 2000-05-12 14 10 4 116 MIN,KCR,TEX,ANA,SEA
2 TOR 2003-05-30 2003-06-13 13 9 4 102 BOS,STL,CIN,PIT,CHC
3 NYM 2007-08-11 2007-08-24 12 8 4 83 FLA,PIT,WSN,SDP,LAD
4 TEX 2005-08-02 2005-08-13 12 3 9 86 TBD,BAL,BOS,NYY
5 HOU 2004-08-27 2004-09-08 12 12 0 109 CHC,CIN,PIT
6 ATL 2004-08-22 2004-09-04 12 11 1 84 LAD,COL,SFG,PHI,MON
7 OAK 2002-08-17 2002-08-28 12 12 0 95 CHW,CLE,DET,KCR
8 CLE 2001-04-26 2001-05-09 12 11 1 101 ANA,TEX,KCR,TBD
9 CLE 2000-08-26 2000-09-06 12 9 3 88 ANA,TEX,BAL,TBD
10 NYY 2004-05-23 2004-06-04 11 10 1 93 TEX,BAL,TBD
11 TOR 2002-07-14 2002-07-26 11 8 3 76 BOS,NYY,BAL,TBD,MIN
12 SEA 2002-04-07 2002-04-17 11 10 1 82 OAK,ANA,TEX
13 TOR 2000-04-12 2000-04-23 11 6 5 92 ANA,SEA,NYY
14 WSN 2009-05-10 2009-05-19 10 1 9 62 ARI,SFG,PHI,PIT
15 COL 2008-07-17 2008-07-27 10 9 1 76 PIT,LAD,CIN
16 BOS 2008-05-02 2008-05-11 10 7 3 70 TBR,DET,MIN
17 BOS 2008-04-13 2008-04-22 10 9 1 72 NYY,CLE,TEX,LAA
18 NYY 2007-07-28 2007-08-07 10 8 2 93 BAL,CHW,KCR,TOR
19 SEA 2007-05-30 2007-06-09 10 7 3 68 LAA,TEX,BAL,SDP
20 KCR 2006-06-29 2006-07-08 10 6 4 69 CIN,STL,MIN,TOR
21 BOS 2006-06-17 2006-06-28 10 10 0 83 ATL,WSN,PHI,NYM
22 DET 2003-09-27 2004-04-14 10 8 2 69 MIN,TOR
23 BOS 2003-08-20 2003-08-30 10 7 3 79 OAK,SEA,TOR,NYY
24 CLE 2002-03-31 2002-04-11 10 9 1 68 ANA,DET,MIN
25 HOU 2001-06-18 2001-06-27 10 7 3 75 COL,CIN,ARI
Rk Strk Start End Games W L R Opp
26 STL 2001-05-05 2001-05-15 10 8 2 75 ATL,PIT,CHC
27 HOU 2000-08-13 2000-08-23 10 8 2 86 PHI,PIT,MIL,CHC
Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 1/27/2010.

So last year's Nationals streak was the worst of the decade in terms of W-L record. The only other team with a non-winning record was Texas with a 3-9 mark over a 12-game streak and they at least averaged more than 7 runs per game over that streak. (Their pitching must have just been awful.)

In case you're curious here are 2009 pitching streaks where at least 5 runs were surrendered per game:

Rk Strk Start End Games W L R ER Opp
1 HOU 2009-08-10 2009-08-18 8 2 6 60 59 FLA,MIL
2 OAK 2009-07-26 2009-08-02 8 3 5 55 54 NYY,BOS,TOR
3 PHI 2009-06-12 2009-06-20 8 1 7 58 55 BOS,TOR,BAL
4 SFG 2009-05-09 2009-05-16 8 3 5 57 53 LAD,WSN,NYM
5 ARI 2009-09-16 2009-09-23 7 2 5 44 40 SDP,COL,SFG
6 SDP 2009-08-09 2009-08-16 7 2 5 51 49 NYM,MIL,STL
7 MIL 2009-06-13 2009-06-20 7 3 4 56 56 CHW,CLE,DET
8 SDP 2009-04-13 2009-04-21 7 4 3 42 39 NYM,PHI,SFG
9 WSN 2009-04-06 2009-04-13 7 0 7 54 50 FLA,ATL,PHI
Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 1/27/2010.

As expected most of these teams had losing records.

Finally here are the longest such streaks of the 2000's:

Rk Strk Start End Games W L R ER Opp
1 COL 2001-06-18 2001-07-04 15 2 13 116 106 HOU,ARI,SDP
2 KCR 2005-07-27 2005-08-10 13 1 12 110 93 CHW,TBD,BOS,OAK,CLE
3 STL 2003-06-03 2003-06-16 13 7 6 98 97 TOR,BAL,BOS,NYY,MIL
4 PIT 2000-09-09 2000-09-21 13 3 10 110 100 CIN,STL,HOU,PHI,MIL
5 HOU 2007-06-18 2007-06-30 12 4 8 91 84 LAA,TEX,MIL,COL
6 MIL 2002-06-03 2002-06-16 12 3 9 80 72 CHC,PIT,OAK,MIN
7 COL 2000-04-22 2000-05-06 12 5 7 95 86 STL,MON,NYM,SFG
8 CLE 2008-09-23 2009-04-11 11 2 9 82 78 BOS,CHW,TEX,TOR
9 SEA 2008-08-08 2008-08-20 11 1 10 98 94 TBR,LAA,MIN,CHW
10 BAL 2007-08-22 2007-09-01 11 1 10 116 109 TEX,MIN,TBD,BOS
11 ATL 2005-09-28 2006-04-09 11 3 8 81 73 COL,FLA,LAD,SFG
12 TEX 2005-07-04 2005-07-18 11 5 6 80 74 BOS,TOR,OAK,NYY
13 CIN 2004-08-06 2004-08-17 11 3 8 88 79 COL,LAD,SDP,STL
14 DET 2003-09-13 2003-09-23 11 1 10 86 82 KCR,TOR,MIN
15 SDP 2003-05-12 2003-05-23 11 1 10 89 84 FLA,ATL,MIL,ARI
16 CHC 2000-08-31 2000-09-11 11 1 10 98 96 SDP,SFG,COL,HOU,CIN
Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 1/27/2010.

Ah, pre-humidor Coors Field.

Check out that 2005 Royals streak. They allowed 93 earned runs over 13 games, a horrible 7.15 earned runs per game, but for good measure they allowed another 17 unearned runs, bringing the final average to 8.46 runs per game. Impressive, then, that they won even one of those games.

This entry was posted on Thursday, January 28th, 2010 at 7:38 am and is filed under Streak Finders. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. Both comments and pings are currently closed.

12 Responses to “Consecutive games with 5+ runs”

  1. I was surprised the 03 Red Sox didn't appear higher on the >=5 R list for the 00s, since they had the most >=5 R games of any team:

    http://bbref.com/pi/shareit/tUpUs

    Only 59 times were they held under 5 runs.

  2. Is the Athletics 14-game streak the longest post-1954 streak? Also what's with this new format of having to leave your name and e-mail address instead of the usual username?

  3. JohnnyTwisto Says:

    I recalled the Yankees having a long run-scoring streak last season. I think it was for scoring at least 4 runs in a game, which they did 19 times in a row in June-July. The next longest streak was 12. Actually, I think a poster here made me aware of this last summer. The 19 was the longest since the Yanks themselves had 19 in '94.

  4. Speaking of the Nats and odd streaks, last year they had 3 losing streaks of 7+ games and 2 winning streaks of 7+ games. They started the year with 7 losses, they ended the year with 7 wins. Weird season for a weird team.

  5. I'm just happy to see the Nats leading in some positive category.

    On another note, what happened to the old login format?

  6. Here's the odds of the Nats streak (I think):

    P(NL team losing in 2009) = .505
    P(NL team scoring 5+ runs) = .425
    P(NL team losing, given they scored 5+ runs) = .217
    P(NL team losing and scoring 5+ runs) = (.425)*(.217) = .092
    P(NL team winning and scoring 5+ runs) = (.425)*(1-.217) = .333
    P(NL team losing and scoring 5+ runs 10 games in a row) = (.092)^10 = .00000000004
    P(NL team losing and scoring 5+ runs 9 out of 10 games, and winning the other game while also scoring 5+ runs) = (10!/9!)*((.092)^9)*((.333)^1) = .000000002
    P(NL team scoring 5+ runs 10 games in a row, and losing at least 9 out of those 10 games) = .00000000004 + .000000002 = .000000002

    In other words, it was ridiculously improbable.

  7. To Kelly: I already asked that.

  8. DoubleDiamond Says:

    When I heard about that 1-9 record by the Nationals in the streak of scoring at least 5 runs in a game, I just knew that the Phillies had to be in there somewhere, and they are. The two teams played some high-scoring games in 2009, with the Phillies winning most of them. That date range also includes that rain-shortened game in which Drew Carpenter got the win despite not going five innings. In fact, the Phillies are in the opponents list for three of the five 2009 National League entries (although not the other one for the Nationals). It's a wonder they didn't do it themselves, though.

    While only one AL team accomplished this type of streak in 2009, the list for the 2000s includes a lot more AL teams than NL teams. What's interesting is that four of the streaks by AL teams are made up partially or entirely by interleague games, further evidence of the advantage the AL has maintained in these games. There are no such streaks in favor of NL teams. With all of the offense by the Phillies in recent years, though, I would have expected them to be on such a list, but they're not.

    The Phillies have had a lot of interleague problems in recent years, especially in 2009, so it's no surprise that they are up there in the third list during that tough spell they hit against the AL East this past June. But it's also no surprise that they're in two of the other teams' opponents list.

    The fourth list contains two streaks of NL teams surrendering a lot of runs to AL opponents, again carrying out the interleague problems of the "senior circuit".

  9. #5, Sean decided to give a try to disabling the login feature for commenting. It might come back at some point but for now it lets anybody comment without having to create an account.

  10. In 1894, Boston had a string of 21 consecutive games in which they scored 5 or more runs. But that was only their 2nd longest such streak. Earlier in the season, they had a string of 23 consecutive games in which they scored not just 5 but 7 or more runs. They went 17-6. Ah, the good old days.

  11. That was the pre-steroids steroids era.

  12. Thanks Gerry. The 1894 NL doesn't get enough attention. :-) The league as a whole scored 7.36 R/G.

    I found a 5+ run streak by the Phillies that year that lasted 25 game. Not as impressive as the 7+ run streak above, but its still a longer 5+ run streak. They went 16-7-2. Oddly, both ties were 9-inning blowouts (1W/1L) that were declared no-decision for some reason and both were the first game of a double header.