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“Natural” grand slam

Posted by Andy on November 8, 2007

Faithful reader kingturtle asked about how often a cleanup hitter hits a "natural" grand slam with the 1-, 2-, and 3-spot hitters on base ahead of him.

Click through to see what I could find.

Well, the PI doesn't have the ability to search in enough detail to find all such instances. You'd need to be able to define baserunners by their spot in the batting order, which cannot be done by the PI. But one thing we can search for will reveal times it happened in the first inning: Team Batting Event Finder for home runs that occurred in the first inning, with the bases loaded, nobody out, by the 4th-position batter.

Here are the three times that happened in 2007:

   Yr#    G# Date          Batter            Tm   Opp Pitcher           Score       Inn RoB Out Cnt Pit RBI Play Desc.
+-------+---+-------------+-----------------+---+----+-----------------+-----------+---+---+---+---+---+---+-------------------------+
       1   1 2007-05-01    Vladimir Guerrero LAA @KCR Zack Greinke      tied   0-0  t 1 123   0 3-1   5   4 Home Run (Fly Ball to LF-CF); Matthews Scores; Willits Scores; Cabrera Scores
       2   1 2007-06-23    Raul Ibanez       SEA  CIN Kyle Lohse        tied   0-0  b 1 123   0 0-2   4   4 Home Run (Fly Ball to RF); Suzuki Scores; Lopez Scores; Vidro Scores
       3   1 2007-07-13    Brandon Phillips  CIN @NYM John Maine        tied   0-0  t 1 123   0 0-0   1   4 Home Run (Fly Ball to LF-CF); Freel Scores; Hopper Scores; Griffey Scores

Click on the game date above to see the box scores.

It happened twice in 2006:

   Yr#    G# Date          Batter            Tm   Opp Pitcher           Score       Inn RoB Out Cnt Pit RBI Play Desc.
+-------+---+-------------+-----------------+---+----+-----------------+-----------+---+---+---+---+---+---+-------------------------+
       1   1 2006-05-18    Jason Bay         PIT  CIN Dave Williams     tied   0-0  b 1 123   0 0-0   1   4 Home Run (LF); Bautista Scores; Wilson Scores; Sanchez Scores
       2   1 2006-07-29    Troy Glaus        TOR @OAK Barry Zito        tied   0-0  t 1 123   0 1-0   2   4 Home Run (CF); Johnson Scores; Hill Scores; Wells Scores

...and twice in 2005:

  Yr#    G# Date          Batter            Tm   Opp Pitcher           Score       Inn RoB Out Cnt Pit RBI Play Desc.
+-------+---+-------------+-----------------+---+----+-----------------+-----------+---+---+---+---+---+---+-------------------------+
       1   1 2005-06-03    Carlos Lee        MIL @LAD Jeff Weaver       tied   0-0  t 1 123   0 3-1   5   4 Home Run (Fly Ball to LF); Clark Scores; Cirillo Scores; Jenkins Scores
       2   1 2005-08-04    Bobby Abreu       PHI  CHC Mark Prior        tied   0-0  b 1 123   0 1-0   2   4 Home Run (Fly Ball to CF); Rollins Scores; Michaels Scores; Utley Scores

And a few random years.

Three times in 1993:

   Yr#    G# Date          Batter            Tm   Opp Pitcher           Score       Inn RoB Out Cnt Pit RBI Play Desc.
+-------+---+-------------+-----------------+---+----+-----------------+-----------+---+---+---+---+---+---+-------------------------+
       1   1 1993-07-28    Robin Ventura     CHW  CLE Albie Lopez       tied   0-0  b 1 123   0 0-0   1   4 Home Run (Fly Ball to Deep RF); Raines Scores; Cora Scores; Thomas Scores
       2   1 1993-07-28    Todd Zeile        STL @PHI Terry Mulholland  tied   0-0  t 1 123   0 0-1   2   4 Home Run (Fly Ball); Alicea Scores; Smith Scores; Gilkey Scores
       3   1 1993-08-21    Larry Walker      MON @CIN John Roper        tied   0-0  t 1 123   0 2-1   4   4 Home Run (Line Drive); Grissom Scores; Ready Scores; Vander Wal Scores

Five times in 1984, including once each by the Parrish twins:

  Yr#    G# Date          Batter            Tm   Opp Pitcher           Score       Inn RoB Out Cnt Pit RBI Play Desc.
+-------+---+-------------+-----------------+---+----+-----------------+-----------+---+---+---+---+---+---+-------------------------+
       1   1 1984-05-11    Larry Parrish     TEX @CHW Floyd Bannister   tied   0-0  t 1 123   0   -       4 Home Run (LF); Sample Scores; O'Brien Scores; Wright Scores
       2   1 1984-06-08    Greg Luzinski     CHW  MIN Frank Viola       tied   0-0  b 1 123   0   -       4 Home Run (LF); Stegman Scores; Fletcher Scores; Paciorek Scores
       3   1 1984-06-20    Dave Kingman      OAK  KCR Mark Gubicza      tied   0-0  b 1 123   0   -       4 Home Run; Henderson Scores; Murphy Scores; Lopes Scores
       4   1 1984-07-16    Dave Winfield     NYY  TEX Dickie Noles      down   0-2  b 1 123   0   -       4 Home Run; Randolph Scores; Wynegar Scores; Mattingly Scores
       5   1 1984-08-21    Lance Parrish     DET  OAK Lary Sorensen     down   0-2  b 1 123   0   -       4 Home Run; Johnson Scores; Trammell Scores; Gibson Scores

(No, they are not really twins...but if you think they are, then Winfield and Kingman are the "Dave twins.")

And once in 1976:

   Yr#    G# Date          Batter            Tm   Opp Pitcher           Score       Inn RoB Out Cnt Pit RBI Play Desc.
+-------+---+-------------+-----------------+---+----+-----------------+-----------+---+---+---+---+---+---+-------------------------+
       1   1 1976-06-07    Ron Cey           LAD  PHI Ron Reed          down   0-4  b 1 123   0   -       4 Home Run; Lopes Scores; Buckner Scores; Garvey Scores

There's another way to search for these events, which is by using the PI Batting Event Finder for individual players. For example, look at Mike Schmidt' s home run log. Limiting it to 1st inning, no outs, bases loaded as the 4th batter yields:

nothing.

So he never did it.

Doing the same for Dave Winfield, though, yields:

1978

  Car#  Yr#  G# Date          Tm   Opp Pitcher           Score       Inn RoB Out Cnt Pit RBI Play Desc.
+-----+----+---+-------------+---+----+-----------------+-----------+---+---+---+---+---+---+-------------------------+
     1    1   1 1978-07-04    SDP @SFG John Montefusco   tied   0-0  t 1 123   0   -       4 Home Run (LF); Richards Scores; Smith Scores/unER; Gonzalez Scores 

1984

  Car#  Yr#  G# Date          Tm   Opp Pitcher           Score       Inn RoB Out Cnt Pit RBI Play Desc.
+-----+----+---+-------------+---+----+-----------------+-----------+---+---+---+---+---+---+-------------------------+
     2    1   1 1984-07-16    NYY  TEX Dickie Noles      down   0-2  b 1 123   0   -       4 Home Run; Randolph Scores; Wynegar Scores; Mattingly Scores

This includes one time listed above already, as well as the other time he did it in 1978.

This entry was posted on Thursday, November 8th, 2007 at 9:24 am and is filed under Event Finders. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. Both comments and pings are currently closed.

11 Responses to ““Natural” grand slam”

  1. Next time show all the times the progress of a game went from solo HR - 2run HR - 3 - 4... where both teams are included.

  2. PI can't do that.

  3. Is it possible to find out what percentage of ML hitters hit a Grand Slam? Or how many players have been in a bases loaded situation and what the most likely outcome is?

  4. well we can talk about the outcomes. i'll post on that tomorrow.

  5. Wow! Thanks for indulging my curiosity. The data is very cool! It happens more often than I imagined. Seven times in the past three years - and that's not including innings after the first.

    I suppose once I get my subscription I can do the following: "Team Batting Event Finder for home runs that occurred in *any* inning, with the bases loaded, nobody out, by the 4th-position batter." And then I can go through the results by hand and make my list that way.

    Thanks again!

  6. My softball team once started a game with 4 straight HRs. Pretty amazing because we only averaged about 1 HR per game. Just wanted to throw that out there. :)

  7. the PI definitely knows nothing about your softball team. :)

  8. btw...Holy Salami! Ron Cey's perfect grand slam was a GAME-TYING grand slam. The Philles had scored 4 in the top of the 1st, and Ron Reed couldn't protect his 4 run lead against the Dodgers in the bottom of the 1st. Reed did win the game eventually though.

  9. Hahaha Todd Zeile batted cleanup.

    Yes, please post on the probability of outcomes. Is that something you can do with the PI, or do you need more sophisticated analysis?

  10. Tune in tomorrow. You can learn a lot with the PI.

  11. Its happened once in post-season history
    http://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/CLE/CLE192010100.shtml