Comments on: Length of extra inning games http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/archives/402 This and that about baseball stats. Tue, 16 Jul 2013 17:01:55 +0000 hourly 1 https://wordpress.org/?v=4.6 By: Andy http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/archives/402/comment-page-1#comment-2060 Tue, 06 Nov 2007 21:45:50 +0000 http://www.baseball-reference.com/sotd/archives/402#comment-2060 Nice. I would guess that the odds of one team in an extra inning scoring the exact same number of runs as the other team in that extra inning (including zero) is 71.8%. Squaring 0.718 yields 0.516, which are the odds that I calculated that any given extra inning would end still tied.

I love stuff like this--totally independent analysis yielding the same results. You might just be the man (or woman), birtelcom.

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By: birtelcom http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/archives/402/comment-page-1#comment-2056 Tue, 06 Nov 2007 20:04:51 +0000 http://www.baseball-reference.com/sotd/archives/402#comment-2056 Good points about those items that might affect the likelihood of teams being held scoreless in extra innings as opposed to ordinary innings. Based on PI's 2007 numbers, in extra innings the percentage of half innings a team was held scoreless went up a bit compared to the numbers for all innings combined. Teams were held scoreless in 74.6% of half-innings after inning 9, compared to 71% for all half-innings in general. Squaring 74.6% to get the chance of a full inning remaining scoreless results in a 55.5% likelihood of a full scoreless inning. Exactly one run was scored in 15.4% of half-innings overall in 2007 and 14.9% of half innings in extra innings. More than one run was scored in 13.5% of half-innings overall in 2007 and 10.5% of half innings in extra innings. So in 2007, essentially all of the small decline in half-innings with at least one run scored that occurred after the ninth inning was attributable to the decline in multi-run innings, while the portion of exactly one-run innings stayed the same after nine innings.

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By: Andy http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/archives/402/comment-page-1#comment-2055 Tue, 06 Nov 2007 18:43:44 +0000 http://www.baseball-reference.com/sotd/archives/402#comment-2055 Nice quickie analysis there, and it's consistent with my more detailed one. Of course, there are other factors in extra innings, including the fact that you're almost always going to play for one run, which can actually increase the chances of scoring 1 run (while decreasing the chances of scoring more than 1 run), plus the fact that you might not have any more pinch-hitters available in extra innings, etc.

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By: birtelcom http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/archives/402/comment-page-1#comment-2054 Tue, 06 Nov 2007 18:39:35 +0000 http://www.baseball-reference.com/sotd/archives/402#comment-2054 Also using PI's inning summary data and a few basic calcs we can see that on average a team coming to bat during 2007 was held scoreless in its half-inning at the plate 71% of the time. Generally speaking then, both teams will be held scoreless in an inning about 71% * 71% of the time, which comes out to 50.5% of the time. That presumably is the reason that in each inning of extra innings the chances are roughly 50-50 that the game will end. Of course there is the small possibility that the teams will both score and both score exactly the same number of runs, thus continuing the game, but that probability is pretty low (chances of both teams scoring exactly one run in an inning are about 2.5% and the chances of both teams scoring exactly the same number of runs at a number of runs above one is less than 1%) and will not have a major effect on the overall likelihood of games ending in each inning of extra innings.

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