Comments on: Scoring by Innings

By: ImAShark

ImAShark — Thu, 12 Jun 2008 21:51:26 +0000

Wow, you figured out these stats... you're cool.

By: Andy

Andy — Sat, 03 Nov 2007 23:41:54 +0000

vonhayes is totally right. Go to http://www.coolstandings.com/baseball_team.asp and click on New York (Mets.) You can see that right around Sept 12, they had essentially a 100% chance of making the playoffs. Three weeks later, they were home.

MikeC, I suspect that there is a difference. For example, I would guess that scoring in the 3rd inning is higher in the AL since pitchers don't hit. To know for sure would require a detailed study.

By: MikeC

MikeC — Sat, 03 Nov 2007 22:44:38 +0000

I was wondering if there was a difference in the scoring by inning between the leagues?

By: vonhayes

vonhayes — Sat, 03 Nov 2007 21:03:50 +0000

Sorry to get off topic of the run scoring.... ImAShark - If you don't take into account any other factors, and consider only winning the division, then I don't know if I would necessarily argue with you. But that's not quite what I was referring to. The Met collapse was worse first off because the wild card exists now, and it didn't exist in 1964, and despite having a 99.8% chance of at LEAST getting the wild card, The Mets failed to do so. Also, September 12th is not a random day - it was the day where their playoff chances were highest (based on games ahead, but also on games remaining, strength of remaining schedule, strength of the Phil's remaining schedule). So anyway, if they lost on September 13th, and the Phillies won, then their chances decreased. And that's what happened. That's why we can say was highest on the 12th, and when they continued to lose - combined with Phillies wins - it dramatically decreased until it was 0.0% on the last day of the year. By the way, I'm a huge Met fan.

By: Stat of the Day » Blowing 9th-inning leads

Stat of the Day » Blowing 9th-inning leads — Sat, 03 Nov 2007 09:18:27 +0000

[...] Yesterday, I wrote about the PI’s Team Inning Summary function, and here’s another thing you can do with it. [...]

By: Andy

Andy — Fri, 02 Nov 2007 22:14:46 +0000

I would assume the ratios are very similar for common events, such as scoring 1 or 2 runs in an inning. There's no fundamental reason why it should be any different, especially early in the game. Late in the game, when a manager might be compelled to use pinch-hitters in the 8th in some situations or the 9th in others, we might see differences.

By: cu8sfan

cu8sfan — Fri, 02 Nov 2007 21:48:37 +0000

I wonder if the ratios of scoring R runs in the nth inning are the same if you look at top and bottom of innings separately.

By: ImAShark

ImAShark — Fri, 02 Nov 2007 21:01:04 +0000

So what? Who had a higher percentage on... say... August 30th? Or September 20th? You just picked a random day. Bottom line: 7 games up with 17 to play or 6.5 games up with 12 to play. The 6.5 up with 12 to play is a worse collapse.

By: roscfb

roscfb — Fri, 02 Nov 2007 19:09:35 +0000

Agreed, also another argument I made.

By: vonhayes

vonhayes — Fri, 02 Nov 2007 18:21:25 +0000

The '07 Mets were worse because they also missed the Wild Card. On September 12th, they had a much higher percentage chance of getting in the playoffs than the '64 Phillies did at any point in the season.