You Are Here > Baseball-Reference.com > Blog >

SITE NEWS: We are moving all of our site and company news into a single blog for Sports-Reference.com. We'll tag all B-R content, so you can quickly and easily find the content you want.

Also, our existing B-R blog rss feed will be redirected to the new site's feed.

Baseball-Reference.com » Sports Reference

For more from Andy and the gang, check out their new site High Heat Stats.

Scoring by Innings

Posted by Andy on November 2, 2007

The PI has a neat feature about team scoring and records by inning. It can be reached from the main PI page.

Here are the runs score for all teams in 2007:

Runs Scored by inning.

 Inning   #    0  Any    1    2    3    4   ≥5  Most Total  Avg Avg/9inn
+------+----+----+----+----+----+----+----+----+----+----+-----+----+
    1   4862 3276 1586  845  394  191  100   56   11 2921  0.60 5.41
    2   4862 3507 1355  782  337  133   54   49    8 2357  0.48 4.36
    3   4862 3445 1417  736  360  174   78   69    8 2670  0.55 4.94
    4   4862 3434 1428  757  362  182   63   64   10 2631  0.54 4.87
    5   4862 3427 1435  717  379  187   82   70   11 2777  0.57 5.14
    6   4858 3363 1495  764  367  205   90   69   11 2869  0.59 5.32
    7   4856 3500 1356  723  331  169   71   62    8 2519  0.52 4.67
    8   4854 3525 1329  695  334  151   77   72   11 2534  0.52 4.70
    9   3754 2819  935  524  237  100   42   32    7 1640  0.44 4.00
   10    440  323  117   79   20   12    3    3    8  185  0.46 4.13
   11    246  180   66   49   11    3    2    1    5   93  0.41 3.72
   12    128   89   39   25    6    2    4    2    6   70  0.58 5.24
   13     62   44   18   10    5    3    0    0    3   29  0.51 4.61
   14     30   21    9    6    1    2    0    0    3   14  0.50 4.50
   15     12    8    4    2    1    0    0    1    5    9  0.75 6.75
   16      6    5    1    1    0    0    0    0    1    1  0.18 1.59
   17      4    2    2    1    1    0    0    0    2    3  0.75 6.75
+------+----+----+----+----+----+----+----+----+----+----+-----+----+
        43560 30968 12592 6716 3146 1514  666  550   11 23322  0.54 4.83

So, for example, let's say you want to know how many times a team scored 1 run in the 7th inning of a game. Well, you go down the list to Inning # 7, then read across to the column for "1" and you see it happened 723 times in 2007.

There are so many interesting things we can glean from the data above:

  • Firstly, it provides a nice summary of the total length of games this year. We can see that there were 4862 team games (meaning 2431 actual games since each game has 2 teams.) Then there were 4 games that went just 5 innings, since only 4858 games went at least 6 innings. Did you realize that 4 team games (2 actual games) went 17 innings this year?
  • Check out scoring of 1 run in an inning (the "1" column.) From innings 2 through 7, it's pretty constant at about 757 runs, meaning any given team has roughly a 1 in 6.5 chance of scoring 1 run in each inning, 2 through 7, based on this year's actual numbers. But inning #1 saw a lot more 1-run innings at 845, about 1 in 5.8 chance. One run in the 9th happened 524 times, but in many fewer games (remember that winning home teams don't bat in the 9th), about 1 in 7.2.

So let me give you all that data:

             1               2               3               4               5+

1          5.8            12.3            25.5            48.6            86.8
2          6.2            14.4            36.6            90.0            99.2
3          6.6            13.5            27.9            62.3            70.5
4          6.4            13.4            26.7            77.2            76.0
5          6.8            12.8            26.0            59.3            69.5
6          6.4            13.2            23.7            54.0            70.4
7          6.7            14.7            28.7            68.4            78.3
8          7.0            14.5            32.1            63.0            67.4
9          7.2            15.8            37.5            89.4            117.3

So this are the odds of a team scoring a given number of runs (1, 2, 3, 4 or 5 or more) in any given inning (just 1 through 9 shown.) The lower the odds, the more frequently it happened in 2007.

You can see that for 2 runs in an inning, the first inning was still the best (1 in 12.3) but the fifth inning was close (1 in 12.8), and generally the first inning has a smaller overall advantage than for scoring 1 run in an inning.

Now look at 3 runs. It's actually most likely to score 3 runs in the 6th inning (1 in 23.7), followed by the first inning (1 in 25.5.)

For 4 runs, the first inning becomes most common again, but then for 5 runs, the first inning is actually one of the least likely times.

We can't read too much into the data for 3, 4, and 5+ run innings because they are fairly rare events compared to 1 and 2-run innings. I just found it interesting.

Notice too that scoring a lot of runs in the 9th is really difficult, especially 3 or more.

Anyway, this page has a lot of cool info. This column just scratches the surface of what's there.

This entry was posted on Friday, November 2nd, 2007 at 8:08 am and is filed under Innings Summary. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. Both comments and pings are currently closed.

11 Responses to “Scoring by Innings”

  1. Interesting lookup. The surge in the 6th is interesting, guess those SP's are getting tired and the relievers didn't bail them out.

    I often hear announcers say they led "wire to wire". I am interested in most "days in first" leaders ranked by how far they went in the playoffs, where a perfect season would be 162/154 days in first and the world series champs. If needed that could be ranked by their post season records if needed.

    Also, could I say the best collapses in history could be the team with the most "days in first" not to make the playoffs?

    Recently i used this toward an argument that the 2007 mets collapse was worse than the 1964 phillies.

    Other related lists would be the most games up to not make the playoffs, 1964 Phillies up 7.5, 2007 Mets up 7 games...

    The quickest turnaround for a playoff team (or consequently the worst for a previously playoff bound team, ex. '64 Phillies matched a 7 game losing streak with STL 7 game win streak to loose out, while the '07 Mets took 14 days or so to blow a similar lead to the Phils).

    Can you tell this is the first time I found the "stat of the day" page on BR and am excited. (I tried finding any of this in the search field without luck)

  2. The '07 Mets were worse because they also missed the Wild Card. On September 12th, they had a much higher percentage chance of getting in the playoffs than the '64 Phillies did at any point in the season.

  3. Agreed, also another argument I made.

  4. So what? Who had a higher percentage on... say... August 30th? Or September 20th? You just picked a random day. Bottom line: 7 games up with 17 to play or 6.5 games up with 12 to play. The 6.5 up with 12 to play is a worse collapse.

  5. I wonder if the ratios of scoring R runs in the nth inning are the same if you look at top and bottom of innings separately.

  6. I would assume the ratios are very similar for common events, such as scoring 1 or 2 runs in an inning. There's no fundamental reason why it should be any different, especially early in the game. Late in the game, when a manager might be compelled to use pinch-hitters in the 8th in some situations or the 9th in others, we might see differences.

  7. [...] Yesterday, I wrote about the PI’s Team Inning Summary function, and here’s another thing you can do with it. [...]

  8. Sorry to get off topic of the run scoring....

    ImAShark - If you don't take into account any other factors, and consider only winning the division, then I don't know if I would necessarily argue with you. But that's not quite what I was referring to. The Met collapse was worse first off because the wild card exists now, and it didn't exist in 1964, and despite having a 99.8% chance of at LEAST getting the wild card, The Mets failed to do so.

    Also, September 12th is not a random day - it was the day where their playoff chances were highest (based on games ahead, but also on games remaining, strength of remaining schedule, strength of the Phil's remaining schedule).

    So anyway, if they lost on September 13th, and the Phillies won, then their chances decreased. And that's what happened. That's why we can say was highest on the 12th, and when they continued to lose - combined with Phillies wins - it dramatically decreased until it was 0.0% on the last day of the year.

    By the way, I'm a huge Met fan.

  9. I was wondering if there was a difference in the scoring by inning between the leagues?

  10. vonhayes is totally right. Go to http://www.coolstandings.com/baseball_team.asp and click on New York (Mets.) You can see that right around Sept 12, they had essentially a 100% chance of making the playoffs. Three weeks later, they were home.

    MikeC, I suspect that there is a difference. For example, I would guess that scoring in the 3rd inning is higher in the AL since pitchers don't hit. To know for sure would require a detailed study.

  11. Wow, you figured out these stats... you're cool.