Comments on: Kevin Millwood to the Orioles

By: JohnnyTwisto

JohnnyTwisto — Tue, 15 Dec 2009 14:24:15 +0000

I think Millwood was helped a lot by the Rangers defense last season. Looking at pitchers with similar numbers from ages 32-34 would probably serve as a better baseline for how Millwood might project going forward. Still, I think it was a good pickup for the Orioles, as they will have a rather young rotation and could use a reliable veteran. If he can give them over 180 IP and an ERA under 5.00, he's doing his job. Low expectations, I suppose, but it's a tough division.

Charles, it's no surprise to see that group of pitchers regress so much in their age 35 seasons. Almost any group of players who performed above average in a particular season will be worse as a group the next year. Though I suppose the amount of decline there seems concerning.

By: Raphy

Raphy — Tue, 15 Dec 2009 01:28:21 +0000

...Except that Millwood is probably not your typical 127+ ERA guy. His ERA+ over the last three years combined is only 99.

By: Andy

Andy — Tue, 15 Dec 2009 01:10:09 +0000

good way to look at it, Chuck.

By: Charles Saeger

Charles Saeger — Tue, 15 Dec 2009 00:47:30 +0000

Well, this Os fan wanted to see how well these guys performed at age 35. This is the average of the ten guys listed under Millwood in the second table (Nomo to Rooker), and their average age 34 season was 15-9 in 219.2 innings and a 3.36 ERA, ERA+ 126 (duh). Their average 35 season? They went 11-10 in 184.2 innings with a 4.24 ERA, ERA+ 98. Nine of those ten -- all but Fergie Jenkins -- were worse at age 35, though Forsch pitched more since 1981 was a strike year. So we're probably looking at about 170 innings of average next year.

By: JDV

JDV — Mon, 14 Dec 2009 19:53:59 +0000

As a life-long Oriole fan in the midst of a 12-year run of sub-.500 ball, I'll take him. Actually, I'm very enthused about it.

By: Andy

Andy — Mon, 14 Dec 2009 16:30:47 +0000

Here are the last 20 guys to qualify for the ERA title with an ERA+ between 122 and 132 in their Age 34 seasons:

Rk	Player	Year	ERA+	Age	Tm	GS	CG	SHO	GF	W	L	W-L%
1	Kevin Millwood	2009	127	34	TEX	31	3	0	0	13	10	.565
2	Hideo Nomo	2003	130	34	LAD	33	2	2	0	16	13	.552
3	Mike Mussina	2003	129	34	NYY	31	2	1	0	17	8	.680
4	Jeff Fassero	1997	124	34	SEA	35	2	1	0	16	9	.640
5	Tim Belcher	1996	127	34	KCR	35	4	1	0	15	11	.577
6	Doyle Alexander	1985	124	34	TOR	36	6	1	0	17	10	.630
7	Ron Guidry	1985	123	34	NYY	33	11	2	0	22	6	.786
8	Jerry Reuss	1983	122	34	LAD	31	7	0	0	12	11	.522
9	Ken Forsch	1981	126	34	CAL	20	10	4	0	11	7	.611
10	Fergie Jenkins	1977	124	34	BOS	28	11	1	0	10	10	.500
11	Jim Rooker	1977	128	34	PIT	30	7	2	0	14	9	.609
12	Sonny Siebert	1971	129	34	BOS	32	12	4	0	16	10	.615
13	Jim Perry	1970	125	34	MIN	40	13	4	0	24	12	.667
14	Bob Gibson	1970	132	34	STL	34	23	3	0	23	7	.767
15	Ken Johnson	1967	122	34	ATL	29	6	0	0	13	9	.591
16	Whitey Ford	1963	128	34	NYY	37	13	3	1	24	7	.774
17	Joe Nuxhall	1963	129	34	CIN	29	14	2	5	15	8	.652
18	Allie Reynolds	1951	125	34	NYY	26	16	7	11	17	8	.680
19	Harry Brecheen	1949	124	34	STL	31	14	2	1	14	11	.560
20	Ellis Kinder	1949	130	34	BOS	30	19	6	10	23	6	.793

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 12/14/2009.

By: Andy

Andy — Mon, 14 Dec 2009 16:26:25 +0000

Agreed on that, Imsdal. I should post both lists, really.

By: Imsdal

Imsdal — Mon, 14 Dec 2009 16:25:14 +0000

A general note on lists like these: look at players where the reference person is in the middle of the pack, not in the bottom. In this case, have the criteria be ERA+ of 122 to 132 (or wider or smaller, depending on how many hits you get and how many you want to get). Comparing Millwood to guys with ERA+ of 180 is of course a lesson in futility. Comparing him to guys with an ERA+ of 126 may make some sense, but we don't even know who that may be.