Comments on: Projecting Roy Halladay http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/archives/3296 This and that about baseball stats. Tue, 16 Jul 2013 17:01:55 +0000 hourly 1 https://wordpress.org/?v=4.6 By: jksesq1 http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/archives/3296/comment-page-1#comment-9752 Tue, 10 Nov 2009 17:40:19 +0000 http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/?p=3296#comment-9752 Sorry, that's 238, not 258, if he averages 15 wins through age 38. Still a HOF probable but maybe not a slam dunk.

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By: jksesq1 http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/archives/3296/comment-page-1#comment-9751 Tue, 10 Nov 2009 17:37:07 +0000 http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/?p=3296#comment-9751 I'm with you, Andy, I was surprised that Halladay's comparables were of the Hudson-Mussina-Saberhagen variety and not a higher tier of hurler. I chalk some of that up to a slow start (career record of 18-17 on his 25th birthday). Regardless I think he's got an excellent shot at the HOF as long as he attains some reasonable numerical milestones. If he can win 52 games over his next three seasons, he will have 200 for his career, and an 11-year stint as a top tier starter / all-star / perennial CYA contender, which should be more than good enough to get him in. If he can avoid major injuries and average 15 wins until age 38, then he'll be 258 and a shoo-in for first ballot.

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By: JohnnyTwisto http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/archives/3296/comment-page-1#comment-9749 Tue, 10 Nov 2009 17:20:54 +0000 http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/?p=3296#comment-9749 Halladay has not been hurt as much as you say. He was just called up at the end of '98. He went back down to the minors for much of '00 and '01 to figure things out again after getting shelled in the majors. He spent some of '99 in the bullpen. He was hit by line drive and broke his leg in '05. So 2004 is the only season he's missed a lot of time with arm injuries. He is much more durable than Saberhagen.

I've never thought the most-similar list is that useful for making projections. It's probably even less so for pitchers. Since starters are throwing fewer IP now than they have in the past, current pitchers get compared to old pitchers who were not really of the same quality.

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