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	<title>Comments on: All time batting average</title>
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	<description>This and that about baseball stats.</description>
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		<title>By: Andy</title>
		<link>http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/archives/311/comment-page-1#comment-975</link>
		<dc:creator>Andy</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 25 Sep 2007 16:16:57 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.baseball-reference.com/sotd/archives/311#comment-975</guid>
		<description>I do agree, as I stated above in this same post, that batting averages have tended to regress toward the mean more and more over the last 100 years. Bill James has written a lot about this, although it&#039;s been a while since I read his work on it, so don&#039;t assume that he would agree with what I&#039;m writing here.

In general, though, it goes like this. Back in, say, 1910, there were a bunch of players who were simply better players than league average and could routinely hit .350 or better. The reasons why varied--perhaps they were better athletes, perhaps they had better vision, perhaps they remember specific pitchers and their tendencies better, perhaps they were better contact hitters, or perhaps a million other things. Over the last 100 years, though, many of those differences among players have been ameliorated, and some have completely disappeared. For example, there are probably zero baseball players today with worse than 20-20 vision, but that might not have been the case in 1910. Also, all teams and players have access to volumes and volumes (or hard drives and hard drives) full of data on pitchers&#039; past performance, whereas back in 1910 a lot of it probably relied in good memory, written records, and largely on word-of-mouth. It was probably routine in those days for a batter to face a pitcher he had heard a lot about but had never seen. These days, no batter (even a fresh minor leaguer) ever faces a pitcher he hasn&#039;t at least seen on video.

Overall, today I think we see a much more even field of players, for both the hitters and the pitchers, and the difference between the best major leaguer and the worst major leaguer is much smaller than it used to be.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>I do agree, as I stated above in this same post, that batting averages have tended to regress toward the mean more and more over the last 100 years. Bill James has written a lot about this, although it's been a while since I read his work on it, so don't assume that he would agree with what I'm writing here.</p>
<p>In general, though, it goes like this. Back in, say, 1910, there were a bunch of players who were simply better players than league average and could routinely hit .350 or better. The reasons why varied--perhaps they were better athletes, perhaps they had better vision, perhaps they remember specific pitchers and their tendencies better, perhaps they were better contact hitters, or perhaps a million other things. Over the last 100 years, though, many of those differences among players have been ameliorated, and some have completely disappeared. For example, there are probably zero baseball players today with worse than 20-20 vision, but that might not have been the case in 1910. Also, all teams and players have access to volumes and volumes (or hard drives and hard drives) full of data on pitchers' past performance, whereas back in 1910 a lot of it probably relied in good memory, written records, and largely on word-of-mouth. It was probably routine in those days for a batter to face a pitcher he had heard a lot about but had never seen. These days, no batter (even a fresh minor leaguer) ever faces a pitcher he hasn't at least seen on video.</p>
<p>Overall, today I think we see a much more even field of players, for both the hitters and the pitchers, and the difference between the best major leaguer and the worst major leaguer is much smaller than it used to be.</p>
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		<title>By: vonhayes</title>
		<link>http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/archives/311/comment-page-1#comment-973</link>
		<dc:creator>vonhayes</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 25 Sep 2007 16:08:08 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.baseball-reference.com/sotd/archives/311#comment-973</guid>
		<description>I don&#039;t ever recall anyone specific doing that chopper deal but I&#039;ve seen it. Who else might have done that in the &#039;80s?</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>I don't ever recall anyone specific doing that chopper deal but I've seen it. Who else might have done that in the '80s?</p>
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		<title>By: vonhayes</title>
		<link>http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/archives/311/comment-page-1#comment-971</link>
		<dc:creator>vonhayes</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 25 Sep 2007 16:00:54 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.baseball-reference.com/sotd/archives/311#comment-971</guid>
		<description>I see all of your points. They&#039;re totally sound. I don&#039;t necessarily think that today&#039;s hitters are better just because they hit the ball harder and longer. I&#039;m just trying to figure out better things to say to my old school friends and family.

My dad&#039;ll say something like, &quot;Well no one hits .385 anymore!&quot; and I try to tell him that the league is just very normalized nowadays - for an array of reasons, there is less difference between the best and worst players in the league, and statistically there will be very rare instances of an extreme type season (.390 BA, .500 OBP, .800 SLG - though that has always been rare because it&#039;s nearly impossible), because the competition is so stiff across the board. Does that make sense?</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>I see all of your points. They're totally sound. I don't necessarily think that today's hitters are better just because they hit the ball harder and longer. I'm just trying to figure out better things to say to my old school friends and family.</p>
<p>My dad'll say something like, "Well no one hits .385 anymore!" and I try to tell him that the league is just very normalized nowadays - for an array of reasons, there is less difference between the best and worst players in the league, and statistically there will be very rare instances of an extreme type season (.390 BA, .500 OBP, .800 SLG - though that has always been rare because it's nearly impossible), because the competition is so stiff across the board. Does that make sense?</p>
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		<title>By: Andy</title>
		<link>http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/archives/311/comment-page-1#comment-967</link>
		<dc:creator>Andy</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 25 Sep 2007 14:32:03 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.baseball-reference.com/sotd/archives/311#comment-967</guid>
		<description>Why do you think hitters are better today? I am not really sure. Hitters &amp; pitchers are clearly more athletic today, and clearly also stronger (even without the aid of PEDs.) But I also think that a larger fraction of hitters today are less disciplined and less focused on using any given at-bat to the greatest advantage of his own team, whether it means getting only a single if that&#039;s what&#039;s needed, or advancing a runner, etc. In part, that&#039;s because single runs mean less today, in an era of higher scoring, such that going for 1 run rather than hoping for a bigger inning might not be a winning strategy. This lessened focus on playing for one run makes batters less well-rounded, such as with bunting etc. It used to be common for players to beat balls into the ground, intentionally getting a very high bounce and making it easy for an infield single. Now, the last time I recall a player doing that was Alvaro Espinoza in 1990 or 1991 for the Yankees.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Why do you think hitters are better today? I am not really sure. Hitters &amp; pitchers are clearly more athletic today, and clearly also stronger (even without the aid of PEDs.) But I also think that a larger fraction of hitters today are less disciplined and less focused on using any given at-bat to the greatest advantage of his own team, whether it means getting only a single if that's what's needed, or advancing a runner, etc. In part, that's because single runs mean less today, in an era of higher scoring, such that going for 1 run rather than hoping for a bigger inning might not be a winning strategy. This lessened focus on playing for one run makes batters less well-rounded, such as with bunting etc. It used to be common for players to beat balls into the ground, intentionally getting a very high bounce and making it easy for an infield single. Now, the last time I recall a player doing that was Alvaro Espinoza in 1990 or 1991 for the Yankees.</p>
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		<title>By: AMusingFool</title>
		<link>http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/archives/311/comment-page-1#comment-966</link>
		<dc:creator>AMusingFool</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 25 Sep 2007 14:29:22 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.baseball-reference.com/sotd/archives/311#comment-966</guid>
		<description>So we blame it all on the almighty home run, and the players swinging for the fences.  I actually was thinking that was probably the case, but couldn&#039;t figure out the exact causality.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>So we blame it all on the almighty home run, and the players swinging for the fences.  I actually was thinking that was probably the case, but couldn't figure out the exact causality.</p>
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		<title>By: vonhayes</title>
		<link>http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/archives/311/comment-page-1#comment-965</link>
		<dc:creator>vonhayes</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 25 Sep 2007 14:20:59 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.baseball-reference.com/sotd/archives/311#comment-965</guid>
		<description>I think I like that answer. But it won&#039;t help convince my dad that hitters today are better even though their batting averages aren&#039;t as high.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>I think I like that answer. But it won't help convince my dad that hitters today are better even though their batting averages aren't as high.</p>
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		<title>By: wellspr</title>
		<link>http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/archives/311/comment-page-1#comment-960</link>
		<dc:creator>wellspr</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 25 Sep 2007 12:06:06 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.baseball-reference.com/sotd/archives/311#comment-960</guid>
		<description>I think the number of hits is realted to number of times the ball is put in play. If stike outs go up then hits will go down. The average Ks before 1960 were 3-4 per game. After 1960 it is over 5 per game, and after 1994 it is over 6 per game.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>I think the number of hits is realted to number of times the ball is put in play. If stike outs go up then hits will go down. The average Ks before 1960 were 3-4 per game. After 1960 it is over 5 per game, and after 1994 it is over 6 per game.</p>
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		<title>By: Johnny Twisto</title>
		<link>http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/archives/311/comment-page-1#comment-959</link>
		<dc:creator>Johnny Twisto</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 25 Sep 2007 03:49:26 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.baseball-reference.com/sotd/archives/311#comment-959</guid>
		<description>In 1911 (I think) a live ball was introduced, which increased offense for a few years, and probably accounts for the 1912 season.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>In 1911 (I think) a live ball was introduced, which increased offense for a few years, and probably accounts for the 1912 season.</p>
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		<title>By: sfduke76</title>
		<link>http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/archives/311/comment-page-1#comment-957</link>
		<dc:creator>sfduke76</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 25 Sep 2007 02:35:58 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.baseball-reference.com/sotd/archives/311#comment-957</guid>
		<description>Speaking of battings stats from the &quot;154 era&quot;...why the totally oddball drop in HRs in the NL in 1902? Doesn&#039;t seem to be league-raiding from the AL, because the names on the leader boards were pretty similar from 1901 to 1902 to 1903 in the NL. Any clues?</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Speaking of battings stats from the "154 era"...why the totally oddball drop in HRs in the NL in 1902? Doesn't seem to be league-raiding from the AL, because the names on the leader boards were pretty similar from 1901 to 1902 to 1903 in the NL. Any clues?</p>
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		<title>By: Andy</title>
		<link>http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/archives/311/comment-page-1#comment-952</link>
		<dc:creator>Andy</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 24 Sep 2007 22:04:52 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.baseball-reference.com/sotd/archives/311#comment-952</guid>
		<description>Alright, I went back and calculated the total number of team-years since 1901. What I mean is this: I figured out how many teams were in each league in each year, and then I summed all of those up.
NL 1901-1960: 480 team-years
AL 1901-1960: 480 team-years
total for the 154-era: 960 team years
NL 1961-2007: 596 team-years
AL 1961-2007: 610 team-years (since the AL went to 14 teams earlier)
total for the 162-era: 1206 team years
So, if there were the same number of players per team (but rosters are a little bigger these days), and everything else were equal, we should expect 200+ hit seasons in the 162-era to outnumber such seasons in the 154-era by a ratio of about 4-to-3. But in actuality, 200+ hit seasons from the 154-era outnumber their counterparts by almost exactly the same ratio of 4-to-3 (266 to 197, or 4.05-to-3), meaning it was really quite more prevalent in the earlier era.
</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Alright, I went back and calculated the total number of team-years since 1901. What I mean is this: I figured out how many teams were in each league in each year, and then I summed all of those up.<br />
NL 1901-1960: 480 team-years<br />
AL 1901-1960: 480 team-years<br />
total for the 154-era: 960 team years<br />
NL 1961-2007: 596 team-years<br />
AL 1961-2007: 610 team-years (since the AL went to 14 teams earlier)<br />
total for the 162-era: 1206 team years<br />
So, if there were the same number of players per team (but rosters are a little bigger these days), and everything else were equal, we should expect 200+ hit seasons in the 162-era to outnumber such seasons in the 154-era by a ratio of about 4-to-3. But in actuality, 200+ hit seasons from the 154-era outnumber their counterparts by almost exactly the same ratio of 4-to-3 (266 to 197, or 4.05-to-3), meaning it was really quite more prevalent in the earlier era.</p>
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