Comments on: Fewest stolen bases with at least 10 times caught stealing http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/archives/3074 This and that about baseball stats. Fri, 11 Nov 2011 16:57:02 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.3.2 By: DoubleDiamond http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/archives/3074/comment-page-1#comment-9592 DoubleDiamond Mon, 26 Oct 2009 23:10:49 +0000 http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/?p=3074#comment-9592 Maybe it's a Washington thing! Two of the top three in the first list, plus Dukes, played there. Nyjer Morgan, a part-year National in 2009, joins Dukes in the 2nd list. Besides the Senators, other teams that aren't in the same place seem to be overrepresented in that first list, too, although the various BSNs (Boston Braves, Beaneaters, or whatever name they were going by that year), SLBs (St. Louis Browns), etc., appear after Dukes in the list. Maybe it's a Washington thing! Two of the top three in the first list, plus Dukes, played there. Nyjer Morgan, a part-year National in 2009, joins Dukes in the 2nd list.

Besides the Senators, other teams that aren't in the same place seem to be overrepresented in that first list, too, although the various BSNs (Boston Braves, Beaneaters, or whatever name they were going by that year), SLBs (St. Louis Browns), etc., appear after Dukes in the list.

]]> By: gerry http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/archives/3074/comment-page-1#comment-9591 gerry Mon, 26 Oct 2009 22:32:25 +0000 http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/?p=3074#comment-9591 "Now, all the guys on this list below B.J. Upton shouldn't have been trying to steal bases this season. A guy's success rate should be at least 75% or the outcomes aren't worth it for the team." I think JT is right, above, about 75% being too much to ask, but even at 75% Rajai Davis, who is several guys below Upton, is innocent of the charges. Which is worse, Pete Runnels at 0-and-10, or Larry Gardner at 3-and-20? Some other contenders: Tommy Griffith, 1915, 6-and-24; Pat Duncan, 1922, 12-and-28. Somewhere I saw "net steals" given as SB minus twice CS; this puts Runnels at minus 20; Gardner, minus 37; Griffith, minus 41; Duncan, minus 44. "Now, all the guys on this list below B.J. Upton shouldn't have been trying to steal bases this season. A guy's success rate should be at least 75% or the outcomes aren't worth it for the team."

I think JT is right, above, about 75% being too much to ask, but even at 75% Rajai Davis, who is several guys below Upton, is innocent of the charges.

Which is worse, Pete Runnels at 0-and-10, or Larry Gardner at 3-and-20? Some other contenders: Tommy Griffith, 1915, 6-and-24; Pat Duncan, 1922, 12-and-28. Somewhere I saw "net steals" given as SB minus twice CS; this puts Runnels at minus 20; Gardner, minus 37; Griffith, minus 41; Duncan, minus 44.

]]> By: JDV http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/archives/3074/comment-page-1#comment-9590 JDV Mon, 26 Oct 2009 18:48:58 +0000 http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/?p=3074#comment-9590 I tortured myself by looking up the circumstances for Dukes. It was too ugly to get beyond six. - Leading by one with 2 outs in the 5th, he is CS 2nd with Zimmerman batting; (Zimmerman led off the 6th with a 2B); - Trailing by three with 0 outs in the 2nd, he is CS 3rd with Kearns batting; (1st out at 3rd!!!) (Kearns walked, followed by a Flores 2b); - Trailing by one with 1 out in the 2nd, he is PO 1st with Willingham batting; - Tied with 1 out in the 4th, he is PO 1st with Kearns batting; - Tied with 1 out in the 4th, he is CS 3rd with Belliard batting (excusable); - Leading by for in the 9th (same game as above), he is PO 1st with Kearns batting. Not only should he not have been stealing, he should not have been leading off. I tortured myself by looking up the circumstances for Dukes. It was too ugly to get beyond six.

- Leading by one with 2 outs in the 5th, he is CS 2nd with Zimmerman batting; (Zimmerman led off the 6th with a 2B);

- Trailing by three with 0 outs in the 2nd, he is CS 3rd with Kearns batting; (1st out at 3rd!!!) (Kearns walked, followed by a Flores 2b);

- Trailing by one with 1 out in the 2nd, he is PO 1st with Willingham batting;

- Tied with 1 out in the 4th, he is PO 1st with Kearns batting;

- Tied with 1 out in the 4th, he is CS 3rd with Belliard batting (excusable);

- Leading by for in the 9th (same game as above), he is PO 1st with Kearns batting.

Not only should he not have been stealing, he should not have been leading off.

]]> By: JohnnyTwisto http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/archives/3074/comment-page-1#comment-9588 JohnnyTwisto Mon, 26 Oct 2009 15:29:48 +0000 http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/?p=3074#comment-9588 I think a lot of those high CS totals, especially in the 1920s, are off busted hit-and-runs. Demanding a success rate of 75% isn't quite right. Based on when most SB attempts are actually made, the actual break-even point (which can never be known for sure) is usually lower. Of course, I haven't checked the play-by-play accounts to see when all these guys got caught, and you're right that some of them did cost their teams, overall. I think a lot of those high CS totals, especially in the 1920s, are off busted hit-and-runs.

Demanding a success rate of 75% isn't quite right. Based on when most SB attempts are actually made, the actual break-even point (which can never be known for sure) is usually lower. Of course, I haven't checked the play-by-play accounts to see when all these guys got caught, and you're right that some of them did cost their teams, overall.

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