Comments on: Starters Who Starred In Post-Season Debut (Since ’95) http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/archives/2856 This and that about baseball stats. Fri, 11 Nov 2011 16:57:02 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.3.2 By: JohnnyTwisto http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/archives/2856/comment-page-1#comment-9431 JohnnyTwisto Sat, 10 Oct 2009 05:09:36 +0000 http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/?p=2856#comment-9431 Well I mainly wanted to provide some context to the numbers. I wasn't really sure until I looked further whether 10% of starts at that threshold was poor, typical, or what. A .300 BA in the postseason isn't the same as a .300 BA against the Royals either, but at least we have an idea what it means. Anyway, a nice average Greinke start of 63 for Burnett tonight (if I remember how to calculate GS correctly...) Well I mainly wanted to provide some context to the numbers. I wasn't really sure until I looked further whether 10% of starts at that threshold was poor, typical, or what. A .300 BA in the postseason isn't the same as a .300 BA against the Royals either, but at least we have an idea what it means.

Anyway, a nice average Greinke start of 63 for Burnett tonight (if I remember how to calculate GS correctly...)

]]> By: Steve Lombardi http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/archives/2856/comment-page-1#comment-9428 Steve Lombardi Fri, 09 Oct 2009 19:30:33 +0000 http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/?p=2856#comment-9428 <blockquote>11.1% of all regular season starts since 1995 are at least a 70 Game Score, compared to the 10.4% you found above.</blockquote> Johnny - True, but, it could be suggested that there's more pressure in making your first ever career start in the post-season than making career start # 67 in a game against the Royals, in July, when your team is 15 games out of first... So, does it make sense to use "all regular season starts GS 70+ ratio" as the yardstick for first ever career start in the post-season? Just a thought...

11.1% of all regular season starts since 1995 are at least a 70 Game Score, compared to the 10.4% you found above.

Johnny - True, but, it could be suggested that there's more pressure in making your first ever career start in the post-season than making career start # 67 in a game against the Royals, in July, when your team is 15 games out of first...

So, does it make sense to use "all regular season starts GS 70+ ratio" as the yardstick for first ever career start in the post-season? Just a thought...

]]> By: JohnnyTwisto http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/archives/2856/comment-page-1#comment-9427 JohnnyTwisto Fri, 09 Oct 2009 19:17:37 +0000 http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/?p=2856#comment-9427 11.1% of all regular season starts since 1995 are at least a 70 Game Score, compared to the 10.4% you found above. Of course, the postseason pitchers should be a better group overall, but they are also facing better offenses. 14.1% of all postseason starts since 1995 have been at least a 70. So the average pitcher making his first postseason start appears to perform slightly worse than those who have started before. First-timers are probably lesser pitchers overall, and it is possible that nerves have some effect as well. Anyway, one can have a very good start while coming up short of 70. Lincecum's average Game Score this season was 64; I'd certainly take an average Lincecum start. 11.1% of all regular season starts since 1995 are at least a 70 Game Score, compared to the 10.4% you found above. Of course, the postseason pitchers should be a better group overall, but they are also facing better offenses. 14.1% of all postseason starts since 1995 have been at least a 70. So the average pitcher making his first postseason start appears to perform slightly worse than those who have started before. First-timers are probably lesser pitchers overall, and it is possible that nerves have some effect as well.

Anyway, one can have a very good start while coming up short of 70. Lincecum's average Game Score this season was 64; I'd certainly take an average Lincecum start.

]]> By: Looking For A Big Game From A.J. Burnett Tonight? http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/archives/2856/comment-page-1#comment-9420 Looking For A Big Game From A.J. Burnett Tonight? Fri, 09 Oct 2009 18:28:39 +0000 http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/?p=2856#comment-9420 [...] The odds are really against it happening. [...] [...] The odds are really against it happening. [...]

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