Comments on: A-Rod, The Chicken, The Egg & The Fence http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/archives/2717 This and that about baseball stats. Tue, 16 Jul 2013 17:01:55 +0000 hourly 1 https://wordpress.org/?v=4.6 By: Rich http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/archives/2717/comment-page-1#comment-9241 Wed, 30 Sep 2009 16:35:59 +0000 http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/?p=2717#comment-9241 A-Rod is a top three player in MLB. Nothing changes that.

]]>
By: tomepp http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/archives/2717/comment-page-1#comment-9237 Wed, 30 Sep 2009 03:19:54 +0000 http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/?p=2717#comment-9237 As DavidRF validly points out, we need context. Is .290 a good BA? Is 4.15 a good ERA? Is .790 a good OPS? Is 1.20 a good WHIP? Is 5.86 a good LooPA? Is .844 a good WPwARhaBD (Win Percentage when A-Rod has a Big Day)? From experience, most fans know what a good BA and a good ERA are. The "stat heads" among us (most readers of this blog) also know a good OPS and WHIP when we see one. But without league-wide (and perhaps era-wide) means and standard deviations, we have no framework to determine a good LooPA or if 84% wins when your cleanup hitter has "a big day" is impressive or mediocre.

ANY team should be able to compile a winning record - and probably a high percentage at that - when their cleanup hitter has at least 2 RS and 2 RBI. Heck, by definition, they've scored at least two runs, and barring two solo homers, likely scored more than that. Throw in the fact that he also had 3 hits, and you're probably looking at a lot of games where the opposing pitcher(s) didn't bring their 'A' game to the park. While it is possible that the cleanup guy was the exception, and the rest of his team was shut down offensively, I suspect that more often the cleanup hitter was indicative of the opposing pitchers’ performance, and that the opposing pitcher gave up more hits than average, even discounting the cleanup hitter’s hits.

So until we have a significantly larger sample size (and I’m talking number of players, not number of games by A-Rod), I must agree with DavidRF, we can’t conclude anything by this.

But Steve, I like your work, and would be curious to see what other players – particularly other 3- and 4-hole hitters – numbers look loike.

]]>
By: TylerMaher http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/archives/2717/comment-page-1#comment-9234 Tue, 29 Sep 2009 22:49:21 +0000 http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/?p=2717#comment-9234 A-Rod definitely hasn't done too much "stat padding" this year. Over half (48 to be exact) of his 93 RBI have either tied the game or given the Yankees the lead, and he's already notched 25 go-ahead hits. His slash stats in Late and Close situations are phenomenal, as Rodriguez is raking at a .310/.474/.741 clip.
Interesting study, by the way.

]]>
By: JohnnyTwisto http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/archives/2717/comment-page-1#comment-9231 Tue, 29 Sep 2009 02:58:27 +0000 http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/?p=2717#comment-9231 Helpful nitpick: David, I think you mean "imply" everywhere you've been writing "infer." You are inferring things, but Steve was (or maybe wasn't) implying them.

]]>
By: JDV http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/archives/2717/comment-page-1#comment-9227 Mon, 28 Sep 2009 18:46:33 +0000 http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/?p=2717#comment-9227 I like the study, and I think it was done fairly. FWIW, I also think that A-Rod is a huge talent and a big-time performer, but I'm not a big fan. Maybe the comparison with other players over time reveals the most. I looked at the Pujols numbers that were added later and those were eye-popping, with Rodriguez' seeming modest by comparison. It would be interesting to see a few others included, but only a handful have been in their prime from 04-09. If it were narrowed to 06-09, players like Howard and Fielder could be included.

]]>
By: DavidRF http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/archives/2717/comment-page-1#comment-9226 Mon, 28 Sep 2009 18:02:13 +0000 http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/?p=2717#comment-9226 Sorry if I came across as too harsh. There's no "edit post" feature to allow me to tone things down. I'm just happier letting things go with a simple disagreement if things are stated rather than inferred, that's all.

It is very cool that the PI can be used to find these types of things, but I suspect that a lot of players with excellent-hitting teammates in hitters parks or eras will also have a lot of games they had good games and their team ran up the score (and would have won without their great games anyways). Guys like Mickey Mantle, Ted Williams and Lou Gehrig.

]]>
By: Steve Lombardi http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/archives/2717/comment-page-1#comment-9225 Mon, 28 Sep 2009 14:08:37 +0000 http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/?p=2717#comment-9225 Andy - thanks. No worries. I've been writing about baseball on the internet since 1997. And, if I've learned anything in the process, it's that you should never allow someone else's comments on your work get under your skin - especially if they resort to name calling, etc. DavidRF's comments don't bother me, in the least bit. In fact, I'm happy that he's reading this blog, what I wrote, and that he's commenting on it. I hope that he continues to do so in the future as well.

]]>
By: Andy http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/archives/2717/comment-page-1#comment-9224 Mon, 28 Sep 2009 12:48:34 +0000 http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/?p=2717#comment-9224 Take it easy on Steve. He's put in some real effort here to research something and provide some data. You can express your opinion without attacking him personally.

]]>
By: DavidRF http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/archives/2717/comment-page-1#comment-9223 Mon, 28 Sep 2009 03:22:14 +0000 http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/?p=2717#comment-9223 Thanks for stopping short of making any conclusions because you can't make any.

I'm sorry to be snippy here, but when you post a lot of data and talk about "stat padding", we all know what you are inferring and then I found it disingenuous when you kept changing the subject in your responses and also claiming you never concluded anything. I think the phrase wikipedia uses for that is "weasel words". I'm a reasonable guy and I realize this is just a fun fact-dump blog, but you can't complain if someone takes your bait.

"Random Data" are facts, too. And random data it shall remain until context is provided. Until then, I'll be rooting against the Yankees in the playoffs, too. 🙂

]]>
By: Steve Lombardi http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/archives/2717/comment-page-1#comment-9222 Mon, 28 Sep 2009 01:56:20 +0000 http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/?p=2717#comment-9222 @DavidRF -

Here are my points in this one – just to be clear:

1. If someone want to say that A-Rod only has big days in games that the Yankees lose, well, we now know that’s not true.

2. In 63% of these games where the Yankees won and Alex Rodriguez had a big day with the stick, the Yankees won the game by 6 runs or more. And, in 43% of these games where the Yankees won and Alex Rodriguez had a big day with the stick, the Yankees won the game by 8 runs or more. These are stats and facts. If you prefer to call them "random data," then, that's your right, of course.

]]>