Comments on: Labor Day part 2 http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/archives/254 This and that about baseball stats. Fri, 11 Nov 2011 16:57:02 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.3.2 By: Andy http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/archives/254/comment-page-1#comment-517 Andy Wed, 05 Sep 2007 13:36:20 +0000 http://www.baseball-reference.com/sotd/archives/254#comment-517 OK, I went back and gathered some numbers. I used the PI Event Finder for Rivera to find all games since 1997 where he has registered at least one batter faced in the 8th inning. Here are the data: Year G Saves BS non-save 2007 13 10 1 2 2006 12 7 0 5 2005 8 7 0 1 2004 6 4 1 1 2003 11 10 1 0 2002 11 4 3 4 2001 18 13 5 0 2000 16 13 3 0 1999 10 8 2 0 1998 13 9 4 0 1997 11 9 1 1 So for each year, that's the total number of games entering in the 8th inning, followed by number of saves, then number of blown saves, and finally the number of times it was a non-save situation. (Incidentally, since 1997 Rivera has entered in the 7th inning 5 times and these are not considered above.) The thing that jumps right out at me is that from 1997 to 2001, Rivera was used in the 8th inning in a non-save situation just once. From 2002 to present, he's been used that way 13 times. That alone doesn't mean much--if Torre feels his team has a better chance of winning by using Rivera that way, then fine. (There is certainly much to be said for using your closer at the most important time rather than waiting for a lead by default.) I also notice that since 2003, Rivera has blown only 3 out of 38 save opportunities (8%) whereas in 1997-2002 he blew 18 out of 56 (32%) OK, I went back and gathered some numbers. I used the PI Event Finder for Rivera to find all games since 1997 where he has registered at least one batter faced in the 8th inning.
Here are the data:
Year G Saves BS non-save
2007 13 10 1 2
2006 12 7 0 5
2005 8 7 0 1
2004 6 4 1 1
2003 11 10 1 0
2002 11 4 3 4
2001 18 13 5 0
2000 16 13 3 0
1999 10 8 2 0
1998 13 9 4 0
1997 11 9 1 1
So for each year, that's the total number of games entering in the 8th inning, followed by number of saves, then number of blown saves, and finally the number of times it was a non-save situation.
(Incidentally, since 1997 Rivera has entered in the 7th inning 5 times and these are not considered above.)
The thing that jumps right out at me is that from 1997 to 2001, Rivera was used in the 8th inning in a non-save situation just once. From 2002 to present, he's been used that way 13 times. That alone doesn't mean much--if Torre feels his team has a better chance of winning by using Rivera that way, then fine. (There is certainly much to be said for using your closer at the most important time rather than waiting for a lead by default.)
I also notice that since 2003, Rivera has blown only 3 out of 38 save opportunities (8%) whereas in 1997-2002 he blew 18 out of 56 (32%)

]]> By: Andy http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/archives/254/comment-page-1#comment-516 Andy Wed, 05 Sep 2007 12:25:05 +0000 http://www.baseball-reference.com/sotd/archives/254#comment-516 Johnny, you make a great point. My thinking was this...Rivera's career as a closer can be broken down into two halves, in my opinion: pre-2001 and post-2001. In 2001 itself, Rivera pitched the most innings he has as a closer (80.2) and had 13 saves of more than one inning. That post-season, some said he was worn down, and while he generally pitched pretty effectively, he did blow Game 7 of the World Series, as Torre attempted to have him pitch the last 2 innings of the game. (Granted, it's not as if Arizona mashed against him...the hits in the ninth inning were pretty weakly hit.) But post-2001, Torre adopted a new philosophy that he would not wear down Rivera by using him for more than 1 inning. Hence, he dropped from 13 >1 inning saves in 2001 to just 4 in 2002, as you pointed out. Since 2003, Rivera has had minor arm troubles toward the end of each season, and has on occasion been used sparingly for a few weeks or in some seasons has actually been shut down at times. He blew two saves early in August and was used sparingly for a while, for example. Nevertheless, Torre has gone ahead and started using him consistently again for >1 IP saves, and Rivera's now topped 10 such saves twice in the last few seasons, even though he has been wearing down. To do this analysis right would require more data. I'd like to know how many times Rivera has pitched in the 8th inning, and how many of those saves he has blown (since actual Saves only tells half the story and doesn't indicate his total number of such appearances.) Johnny, you make a great point. My thinking was this...Rivera's career as a closer can be broken down into two halves, in my opinion: pre-2001 and post-2001. In 2001 itself, Rivera pitched the most innings he has as a closer (80.2) and had 13 saves of more than one inning. That post-season, some said he was worn down, and while he generally pitched pretty effectively, he did blow Game 7 of the World Series, as Torre attempted to have him pitch the last 2 innings of the game. (Granted, it's not as if Arizona mashed against him...the hits in the ninth inning were pretty weakly hit.)
But post-2001, Torre adopted a new philosophy that he would not wear down Rivera by using him for more than 1 inning. Hence, he dropped from 13 >1 inning saves in 2001 to just 4 in 2002, as you pointed out. Since 2003, Rivera has had minor arm troubles toward the end of each season, and has on occasion been used sparingly for a few weeks or in some seasons has actually been shut down at times. He blew two saves early in August and was used sparingly for a while, for example. Nevertheless, Torre has gone ahead and started using him consistently again for >1 IP saves, and Rivera's now topped 10 such saves twice in the last few seasons, even though he has been wearing down.
To do this analysis right would require more data. I'd like to know how many times Rivera has pitched in the 8th inning, and how many of those saves he has blown (since actual Saves only tells half the story and doesn't indicate his total number of such appearances.)

]]> By: Johnny Twisto http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/archives/254/comment-page-1#comment-513 Johnny Twisto Wed, 05 Sep 2007 05:11:04 +0000 http://www.baseball-reference.com/sotd/archives/254#comment-513 "Rivera being so high on the list is a testament, I think, to the comparative weakness of the Yankees bullpen in recent seasons with that from their most recent hayday of 1996-2000" I don't think it shows this at all. From '97 to '02, Rivera had 56 such saves, also leading the majors. Since he became closer, his # of >1 IP saves each year are: 9, 9, 8, 13, 13, 4, 10, 4, 7, 7, 10. I don't see much trend, though perhaps you could argue his numbers should have dropped more to be in line with general pitcher usage (there were twice as many such saves in all of baseball in '98 as there will be this season). "Rivera being so high on the list is a testament, I think, to the comparative weakness of the Yankees bullpen in recent seasons with that from their most recent hayday of 1996-2000"

I don't think it shows this at all. From '97 to '02, Rivera had 56 such saves, also leading the majors. Since he became closer, his # of >1 IP saves each year are: 9, 9, 8, 13, 13, 4, 10, 4, 7, 7, 10. I don't see much trend, though perhaps you could argue his numbers should have dropped more to be in line with general pitcher usage (there were twice as many such saves in all of baseball in '98 as there will be this season).

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