Comments on: Homers leading off the game: more or less likely? http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/archives/1671 This and that about baseball stats. Tue, 16 Jul 2013 17:01:55 +0000 hourly 1 https://wordpress.org/?v=4.6 By: Andy http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/archives/1671/comment-page-1#comment-6830 Wed, 27 May 2009 17:29:10 +0000 http://www.baseball-reference.com/sotd/?p=1671#comment-6830 Good point, Tomepp, and that data is easy to find right on the 2008 MLB summary page (linked in my post above.)

So in 2008, the #1 slot in the batting order hit 466 HR in 22946 PAs, which is 2.03%. That, of course, includes the first PA of the game, which came in at 2.14% itself. I'm guessing, then, that there's no particular difference. Keeping in mind that through double-switches pitchers occasionally bat in the #1 hole later in game, it looks like homers are not more or less likely at the start of the game than otherwise.

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By: tomepp http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/archives/1671/comment-page-1#comment-6827 Wed, 27 May 2009 15:08:28 +0000 http://www.baseball-reference.com/sotd/?p=1671#comment-6827 What might be more interesting is to compare the rate of game-lead-off home runs to the overall rate of home runs hit by the #1 spot in the order; or even better, to the overall rate of homers hit by the players who started the game in the #1 spot in the order (thus eliminating pinch hitters, defensive replacements, etc.) This way you'd be eliminating the bias of counting cleanup hitters (and #9 hitters), etc. and only looking at whether leading off the game has an effect.

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By: Jeff Akston http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/archives/1671/comment-page-1#comment-6825 Wed, 27 May 2009 14:47:42 +0000 http://www.baseball-reference.com/sotd/?p=1671#comment-6825 So then which hitter had the highest percentage of their homers being of the lead-off kind?

Soriano's 27.18% ratio (53 out of 195 in the leadoff spot) is lower than Ricky Henderson's 27.64% (81 of 293) and Biggio's 29.28% (53 out of 181).

Secondarily, why would their rate of homers in their 1st AB be so much higher than the percentage overall? Soriano (23.1%), Biggio (24.7), and Henderson (26.6%) of their AB came out of the leadoff spot, so why would their power be so frontloaded? Those ratios all approach 20-22% if you look at it from a per plate appearance level.

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