Comments on: See you in 2013: John Lackey to have Tommy John surgery http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/archives/16045 This and that about baseball stats. Tue, 16 Jul 2013 17:01:55 +0000 hourly 1 https://wordpress.org/?v=4.6 By: Mike L http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/archives/16045/comment-page-1#comment-177291 Wed, 26 Oct 2011 21:48:02 +0000 http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/?p=16045#comment-177291 @25, Lawrence. Could be. His walk rate during the post season is 3.3/9, regular season 3.1/9, not too much variation there. Might just be a coincidence.

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By: Lawrence Azrin http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/archives/16045/comment-page-1#comment-177276 Wed, 26 Oct 2011 21:14:02 +0000 http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/?p=16045#comment-177276 @24/ Mike L -
"... Here's a peculiar stat about Lackey. In 78 post season innings he's hit exactly one batter. Regular season, more than 4 times that rate. You wonder a little about this guy's head."

Mike, I don't think it has to do with his head, but more with "small sample size"; you could probably go through his regular season starts game-by-game, and find several stretches where he had only one HBP in 78 innings (regular season: about one HBP every 19 innings).

That, plus in the postseason, _every_ batter is important, so you're less likely to deliberately put a batter on base.

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By: Mike L http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/archives/16045/comment-page-1#comment-177258 Wed, 26 Oct 2011 20:16:56 +0000 http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/?p=16045#comment-177258 Teams like the Red Sox and Yankees make signings like Lackey and Burnett because they can-they can outbid people for someone who isn't fantastic, figuring that with their powerful line-ups, you could be getting an 18 game winner. Here's a peculiar stat about Lackey. In 78 post season innings he's hit exactly one batter. Regular season, more than 4 times that rate. You wonder a little about this guy's head.

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By: Kirk http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/archives/16045/comment-page-1#comment-177207 Wed, 26 Oct 2011 18:16:23 +0000 http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/?p=16045#comment-177207 @20 - Isn't this the type of projection Theo's numbers should have caught? Go Cubs Go!!

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By: Lawrence Azrin http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/archives/16045/comment-page-1#comment-177174 Wed, 26 Oct 2011 16:56:57 +0000 http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/?p=16045#comment-177174 @2 1 - when I wrote "highest ERA+", I actually meant "worst ERA+".

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By: Lawrence Azrin http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/archives/16045/comment-page-1#comment-177157 Wed, 26 Oct 2011 16:21:21 +0000 http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/?p=16045#comment-177157 Looking at the top of that list of highest ERA+ by Red Sox starters, I see several ERA's in the high three's (Dineen, Jones, Siebert, Young). Normally we'd think of an ERA in that range as good, even very good, so this a great remainder that context can make a huge difference.

Siebert's mediocre ERA+ in 1972 may surprise some people - 1971 and especially 1972 were such down offensive years that the DH was introduced the next year.

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By: John Autin http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/archives/16045/comment-page-1#comment-177135 Wed, 26 Oct 2011 15:22:34 +0000 http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/?p=16045#comment-177135 Caveat emptor: Boston signed Lackey to that 5-year deal at age 31, coming off a 2-year average of 26 starts, 176 IP and 117 ERA+ (compared to his previous 3-year average of 33 starts, 217 IP and 133 ERA+). He pitched the full season in 2010, but wasn't good, with a 99 ERA+ and career lows in SO/9 and SO/BB.

The depth of his fall this year may have been shocking, but that he fell should not have been a surprise.

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By: Jason http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/archives/16045/comment-page-1#comment-177123 Wed, 26 Oct 2011 15:01:54 +0000 http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/?p=16045#comment-177123 @16-I agree.

Lackey was in a no win situation this season.

Being injured, there is no way he could have a
productive season.

If he were to shut it down early, he is then perceived
as a quitter making 82 million dollars.

If he shuts his mouth and pitches in pain, the performance
suffers and he is perceived as a bust who makes 82
million dollars.

Or it could just be that he stinks like AJ Burnett.

Those two are forever linked.

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By: nightfly http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/archives/16045/comment-page-1#comment-177096 Wed, 26 Oct 2011 14:22:33 +0000 http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/?p=16045#comment-177096 Hey Beantowners, welcome to being a New York Mets fan! How many pitchers did the Mets have that decided to not tell anyone their arms were messed up, and wound up pitching like beer-league softballers? Oh, but at the end of the season, by the way, I need surgery and I'm missing NEXT year, too.

We could call them the Braden Looper All-Stars.

No, I'm not still bitter. Because shut up, that's why.

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By: Mike http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/archives/16045/comment-page-1#comment-177088 Wed, 26 Oct 2011 14:02:22 +0000 http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/?p=16045#comment-177088 First Dice-K had TJ surgery, now Lackey. I knew the Red Sox pitching staff would be better in 2012!

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