Comments on: Sudden Death Post-Season Games At Home http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/archives/15677 This and that about baseball stats. Tue, 16 Jul 2013 17:01:55 +0000 hourly 1 https://wordpress.org/?v=4.6 By: Bryan http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/archives/15677/comment-page-1#comment-164557 Fri, 07 Oct 2011 13:42:56 +0000 http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/?p=15677#comment-164557 Topper009 - There is absolutely no way that a pitcher turns a team singlehandedly from a .300 team to a .700 team. It just doesn't work that way. Carlton's year in 72 was a complete fluke. The Phillies weren't really that good when he pitched, they (and he) just had things work out well for them. Things sure evened out for Carlton the next year, didn't they?

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By: Seapig http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/archives/15677/comment-page-1#comment-164359 Fri, 07 Oct 2011 08:49:45 +0000 http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/?p=15677#comment-164359 BSK: Something else to note is that the team with the better record has only gotten HFA since 1998. I'm guessing that the number of sudden death games where the better team had HFA *because* they were the better team is too small a sample to have a real meaningful impact on the overall numbers.

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By: birtelcom http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/archives/15677/comment-page-1#comment-164260 Fri, 07 Oct 2011 05:31:25 +0000 http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/?p=15677#comment-164260 BSK: The quality difference among post-season teams is usually going to be relatively small, so the extra probability of the home team winning in a sudden-death game because it is the better team is going to be quite small. Small enough that it is likely to show up in a meaningful way only over a very large sample of games, and there are never really going to be enough sudden death games to provide a big enough sample. Unless of course Selig arranges to have a twenty-eight team post-season playoff system that runs from June to December.

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By: Jose Rodriguez http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/archives/15677/comment-page-1#comment-164229 Fri, 07 Oct 2011 04:52:27 +0000 http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/?p=15677#comment-164229 So home advantage is not real. It's an anybody's game

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By: BSK http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/archives/15677/comment-page-1#comment-164205 Fri, 07 Oct 2011 03:41:34 +0000 http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/?p=15677#comment-164205 Topper-

True. My point was more about HFA in general, not specifically game 7's.

If teams typically win 54.2% of home games and home teams typically win 53.9% of Game 7s when (presumably) they are the better team, what does that tell us? Evenly matched opponents would expected to see a 54.2% winning percentage in favor of the home team. Surely a situation where more often than not the home team is also the better team should be above that, no?

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By: Shping http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/archives/15677/comment-page-1#comment-164169 Fri, 07 Oct 2011 02:22:54 +0000 http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/?p=15677#comment-164169 RE: Batting last and HFA, including extra innings. Several in-depth studies have shown that, for the most part, any advantage the home team gains by batting last and possibly employing a one-run strategy (for example) is essentially nullified by fact that defense can employ a one-run preventive strategy as well.

As for all the other questions about expected win probabilities, who's pitching, has the roster changed, etc -- it's fun to speculate, but hard to generalize, ain't it? (who woulda thunk that guys like Francisco and Goldschmidt would be heroes?)

That's why we watch the games: the best "reality tv" ever!

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By: kds http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/archives/15677/comment-page-1#comment-164042 Thu, 06 Oct 2011 21:37:39 +0000 http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/?p=15677#comment-164042 @12 The math underlying log5 works with more than 2 inputs. You can start with the teams w/l% adjust for the starting pitchers, and adjust for HFA.

@17 This has been studied. Iirc, the HFA is less in extra innings. It is clear that batting last has little to do with HFA.

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By: doff123 http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/archives/15677/comment-page-1#comment-164039 Thu, 06 Oct 2011 21:27:05 +0000 http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/?p=15677#comment-164039 i've always thought there is a built-in advantage to batting last, to being able to end the game by taking the lead in the bottom of half of an inning. just a thought. anyone know how often does the home team wins extra inning games?

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By: topper009 http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/archives/15677/comment-page-1#comment-164023 Thu, 06 Oct 2011 20:57:16 +0000 http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/?p=15677#comment-164023 @15, this post is about a single game, and a 5 game series is nothing like the full season. You don't use the 5th starter, you might use your ace in relief of the last game, you can start your regular catcher every game etc.

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By: BSK http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/archives/15677/comment-page-1#comment-163995 Thu, 06 Oct 2011 20:21:19 +0000 http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/?p=15677#comment-163995 Topper009-

For a single game, yes. But over the course of a series...

Of course, that presumes a series that replicates the conditions of the regular season. Which, barring massive rain delays, we won't have. In fact, we'll probably eventually end up with a series in which teams just pitch their ace every game, since they're given 14 days off inbetween.

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