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Sudden Death Post-Season Games At Home

Posted by Steve Lombardi on October 6, 2011

Let's look at the winners and losers in sudden death post-season games at home.


Here are the teams to win these prior to this evening -

Rk Date Series Gm# Tm Opp Rslt IP H R ER BB SO HR WP Pit Str IR IS BF AB 2B 3B IBB HBP SH SF GDP SB CS PO WPA RE24 aLI # ERA
1 2008-10-19 ALCS 7 TBR BOS W 3-1 9.0 3 1 1 5 12 1 0 163 102 8 0 36 30 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 1 0 0.510 3.852 1.575 5 1.00
2 2007-10-21 ALCS 7 BOS CLE W 11-2 9.0 10 2 2 0 4 0 1 129 94 2 0 36 35 2 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 0 0.344 3.253 1.113 3 2.00
3 2005-10-10 ALDS 5 LAA NYY W 5-3 9.0 11 3 3 4 4 1 0 148 92 2 0 41 35 1 0 0 1 0 1 1 1 1 0 0.238 1.662 1.224 4 3.00
4 2004-10-21 NLCS 7 STL HOU W 5-2 9.0 3 2 1 2 7 1 0 129 79 0 0 34 30 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 1 0 0 0.282 2.671 .967 4 1.00
5 2003-10-16 ALCS 7 NYY BOS W 6-5 11.0 11 5 4 1 9 3 0 170 118 2 0 45 44 2 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0.249 0.871 .986 6 3.27
6 2002-10-27 WS 7 ANA SFG W 4-1 9.0 6 1 1 4 10 0 0 152 101 0 0 37 32 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0.339 3.894 .936 4 1.00
7 2001-11-04 WS 7 ARI NYY W 3-2 9.0 6 2 2 0 10 1 0 121 88 2 0 32 32 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.162 3.113 1.215 3 2.00
8 2001-10-15 ALDS 5 NYY OAK W 5-3 9.0 7 3 3 1 8 0 1 144 90 2 1 36 34 2 0 0 1 0 0 1 1 0 0 0.314 2.033 1.253 4 3.00
9 2001-10-15 ALDS 5 SEA CLE W 3-1 9.0 4 1 1 1 11 0 0 133 83 1 0 31 30 1 0 0 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 0.520 3.632 1.133 4 1.00
10 2001-10-14 NLDS 5 ARI STL W 2-1 9.0 6 1 1 1 9 1 0 121 86     35 33 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0.517 4.113 1.410 1 1.00
11 1997-10-26 WS 7 FLA CLE W 3-2 11.0 6 2 2 6 13 0 0 180 107 3 0 43 36 0 0 1 0 1 0 2 2 0 0 0.419 3.365 1.179 6 1.64
12 1997-10-06 ALDS 5 CLE NYY W 4-3 9.0 12 3 2 3 7 0 0 160 103 2 0 40 37 2 0 0 0 0 0 2 2 0 0 0.507 2.143 1.490 4 2.00
13 1996-10-17 NLCS 7 ATL STL W 15-0 9.0 4 0 0 0 6 0 0 93 62 0 0 28 28 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 0 1 0 0.119 4.994 .197 3 0.00
14 1995-10-08 ALDS 5 SEA NYY W 6-5 11.0 6 5 5 10 12 1 0 187 101 3 0 48 37 3 0 2 0 1 0 1 0 0 0 -0.054 1.322 1.486 3 4.09
15 1992-10-14 NLCS 7 ATL PIT W 3-2 9.0 7 2 2 5 5 0 1 127 72 5 0 38 31 4 0 2 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 0.107 2.148 .850 5 2.00
16 1991-10-27 WS 7 MIN ATL W 1-0 10.0 7 0 0 2 8 0 0 126 79     38 35 2 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 0 0 0.845 5.235 1.558 1 0.00
17 1988-10-12 NLCS 7 LAD NYM W 6-0 9.0 5 0 0 2 5 0 1         35 31 1 0 0 2 0 0 1 1 0 0 0.152 3.788 .367 1 0.00
18 1987-10-25 WS 7 MIN STL W 4-2 9.0 6 2 2 0 7 0 0 111 80 0 0 32 32 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 0.461 3.103 1.222 2 2.00
19 1987-10-14 NLCS 7 STL SFG W 6-0 9.0 8 0 0 0 5 0 0 112 70     32 32 0 0 0 0 0 0 3 0 0 0 0.258 4.631 .525 1 0.00
20 1986-10-27 WS 7 NYM BOS W 8-5 9.0 9 5 5 2 7 2 0 131 93 2 0 38 33 1 0 0 1 2 0 0 0 0 0 -0.077 -0.914 .904 4 5.00
21 1986-10-15 ALCS 7 BOS CAL W 8-1 9.0 6 1 1 1 8 0 0 121 83 1 1 36 33 0 0 0 2 0 0 1 0 0 0 0.219 3.702 .405 2 1.00
22 1985-10-27 WS 7 KCR STL W 11-0 9.0 5 0 0 0 2 0 0 92 64     32 32 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.203 4.601 .338 1 0.00
23 1984-10-07 NLCS 5 SDP CHC W 6-3 9.0 5 3 3 3 6 2 0 146 95 1 0 34 30 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 2 2 0 -0.012 1.077 .596 5 3.00
24 1982-10-20 WS 7 STL MIL W 6-3 9.0 7 3 2 0 3 1 0 98 72 0 0 33 32 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0.095 1.117 1.022 2 2.00
25 1982-10-10 ALCS 5 MIL CAL W 4-3 9.0 11 3 3 3 4 0 0 127 75 2 0 38 32 2 0 0 0 3 0 2 0 1 0 0.269 1.228 1.513 3 3.00
26 1981-10-11 NLDS 5 LAD HOU W 4-0 9.0 5 0 0 3 4 0 0         36 33 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 0.396 3.768 1.091 1 0.00
27 1981-10-11 ALDS 5 NYY MIL W 7-3 9.0 8 3 3 4 7 1 0     0 0 39 34 0 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0.100 1.005 .960 3 3.00
28 1976-10-14 ALCS 5 NYY KCR W 7-6 9.0 11 6 6 1 4 2 0     1 1 38 37 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 -0.168 -2.013 1.175 3 6.00
29 1973-10-21 WS 7 OAK NYM W 5-2 9.0 8 2 1 2 6 0 0     3 0 37 35 2 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0.264 2.087 .646 3 1.00
30 1973-10-11 ALCS 5 OAK BAL W 3-0 9.0 5 0 0 2 1 0 0         34 31 3 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 0.403 4.087 .803 1 0.00
31 1973-10-10 NLCS 5 NYM CIN W 7-2 9.0 7 2 1 5 4 0 1     3 0 39 33 3 0 2 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0.071 2.066 .925 2 1.00
32 1972-10-11 NLCS 5 CIN PIT W 4-3 9.0 8 3 3 1 7 0 1     2 1 35 33 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 0 0 -0.015 0.660 .859 4 3.00
33 1964-10-15 WS 7 STL NYY W 7-5 9.0 9 5 5 3 9 3 0         38 35 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0.279 -0.601 .797 1 5.00
34 1960-10-13 WS 7 PIT NYY W 10-9 9.0 13 9 9 2 0 2 0 144 93 4 4 42 40 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -0.752 -4.711 1.233 4 9.00
35 1947-10-06 WS 7 NYY BRO W 5-2 9.0 7 2 2 2 3 0 0     2 1 33 31 1 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 2 0 0.244 2.147 .925 3 2.00
36 1946-10-15 WS 7 STL BOS W 4-3 9.0 8 3 3 1 4 0 0     2 2 36 35 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.164 1.147 1.824 2 3.00
37 1940-10-08 WS 7 CIN DET W 2-1 9.0 7 1 0 3 1 0 0         36 32 1 0 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0.528 3.490 1.384 1 0.00
38 1931-10-10 WS 7 STL PHA W 4-2 9.0 7 2 2 5 6 0 0     2 0 37 32 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0.332 2.783 .802 2 2.00
39 1925-10-15 WS 7 PIT WSH W 9-7 9.0 7 7 7 3 5 1 2     3 2 39 35 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -0.306 -1.550 .987 4 7.00
40 1924-10-10 WS 7 WSH NYG W 4-3 12.0 8 3 1 6 12 0 0     3 2 53 45 1 1 2 0 1 1 1 1 0 0 0.575 3.605 1.858 4 0.75
41 1912-10-16 WS 8 BOS NYG W 3-2 10.0 9 2 2 4 4 0 0     0 0 43 38 3 0 0 0 1 0 0 1 3 0 0.213 3.179 1.260 2 1.80
Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 10/6/2011.

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And, here are the teams to lose these prior to this evening -

Rk Date Series Gm# Tm Opp Rslt IP H R ER BB SO HR WP Pit Str IR IS BF AB 2B 3B IBB HBP SH SF GDP SB CS PO WPA RE24 aLI # ERA
1 2010-10-12 ALDS 5 TBR TEX L 1-5 9.0 11 5 5 0 8 1 0 139 96 0 0 37 37 2 0 0 0 0 0 2 3 0 0 -0.083 -0.752 .757 4 5.00
2 2006-10-19 NLCS 7 NYM STL L 1-3 9.0 6 3 3 3 7 1 0 139 95 0 0 36 30 1 0 2 1 2 0 1 0 0 0 0.059 1.762 1.361 3 3.00
3 2004-10-20 ALCS 7 NYY BOS L 3-10 9.0 13 10 10 7 5 4 0 184 108 8 3 46 38 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 0 0 -0.388 -5.047 .328 6 10.00
4 2004-10-11 NLDS 5 ATL HOU L 3-12 9.0 17 12 12 2 2 3 0 158 100 3 0 43 39 4 0 0 0 1 1 2 0 0 0 -0.363 -7.279 .522 6 12.00
5 2003-10-15 NLCS 7 CHC FLA L 6-9 9.0 12 9 9 4 9 1 0 178 121 4 3 42 38 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 -0.584 -4.288 .916 5 9.00
6 2003-10-06 ALDS 5 OAK BOS L 3-4 9.0 6 4 4 2 8 2 0 137 87 2 0 35 32 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 -0.081 0.852 .967 4 4.00
7 2003-10-05 NLDS 5 ATL CHC L 1-5 9.0 9 5 4 1 9 2 1 140 84 3 0 36 35 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 -0.084 -0.288 .623 5 4.00
8 2002-10-07 NLDS 5 ATL SFG L 1-3 9.0 6 3 3 5 13 1 1 161 99 3 1 37 31 2 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 1 0 0.006 1.551 .850 5 3.00
9 2002-10-06 ALDS 5 OAK MIN L 4-5 9.0 12 5 5 3 11 1 1 157 97 0 0 41 38 5 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0.069 -0.207 .980 3 5.00
10 2000-10-08 ALDS 5 OAK NYY L 5-7 9.0 12 7 7 3 8 1 0 163 102 2 2 42 37 3 0 0 0 0 2 0 1 0 0 -0.199 -1.838 .659 5 7.00
11 1999-10-11 ALDS 5 CLE BOS L 8-12 9.0 10 12 11 6 7 3 0     1 1 43 36 4 0 3 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 -0.714 -6.482 .957 4 11.00
12 1991-10-17 NLCS 7 PIT ATL L 0-4 9.0 6 4 4 7 6 1 0 168 99 1 0 39 30 1 0 1 0 1 1 0 1 0 0 -0.188 0.077 .466 4 4.00
13 1985-10-16 ALCS 7 TOR KCR L 2-6 9.0 8 6 6 2 7 1 0 136 92 1 1 38 35 0 1 0 1 0 0 1 0 0 0 -0.248 -1.217 .668 2 6.00
14 1981-10-19 NLCS 5 MON LAD L 1-2 9.0 6 2 2 1 2 1 1 119 80 0 0 34 33 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 0.046 1.926 1.509 2 2.00
15 1981-10-11 NLDS 5 PHI MON L 0-3 9.0 8 3 3 3 8 0 0     0 0 35 32 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 1 -0.057 1.047 .862 2 3.00
16 1980-10-12 NLCS 5 HOU PHI L 7-8 10.0 13 8 8 3 10 0 0 148 99 5 3 43 39 2 1 1 0 1 0 2 0 1 0 -0.923 -3.879 1.925 4 7.20
17 1979-10-17 WS 7 BAL PIT L 1-4 9.0 10 4 4 2 2 1 0 113 83 7 2 41 36 3 0 2 2 1 0 1 0 0 0 0.008 0.582 1.039 6 4.00
18 1977-10-09 ALCS 5 KCR NYY L 3-5 9.0 10 5 4 3 3 0 0 145 97 7 4 41 37 2 0 0 0 0 1 0 1 0 0 -0.423 -0.348 1.649 6 4.00
19 1975-10-22 WS 7 BOS CIN L 3-4 9.0 9 4 4 6 2 1 0 135 72 6 1 40 33 0 0 0 0 1 0 2 2 0 0 -0.149 0.742 1.727 5 4.00
20 1972-10-22 WS 7 CIN OAK L 2-3 9.0 6 3 2 4 9 0 0     2 0 38 32 2 0 2 0 2 0 0 0 0 0 -0.113 0.660 .892 5 2.00
21 1972-10-12 ALCS 5 DET OAK L 1-2 9.0 4 2 1 2 3 0 0     0 0 35 29 1 0 0 2 2 0 1 3 0 0 0.111 1.580 1.104 2 1.00
22 1971-10-17 WS 7 BAL PIT L 1-2 9.0 6 2 2 0 7 1 0     2 0 33 33 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.129 1.847 .719 3 2.00
23 1968-10-10 WS 7 STL DET L 1-4 9.0 8 4 4 1 8 0 0         36 35 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -0.102 -0.610 .726 1 4.00
24 1967-10-12 WS 7 BOS STL L 2-7 9.0 10 7 6 4 5 2 1     6 0 41 36 2 1 0 0 0 1 0 3 1 0 -0.282 -2.985 .486 5 6.00
25 1965-10-14 WS 7 MIN LAD L 0-2 9.0 7 2 2 4 6 1 0 98 61 3 0 38 32 2 1 1 1 1 0 0 0 1 0 0.081 2.148 .885 5 2.00
26 1962-10-16 WS 7 SFG NYY L 0-1 9.0 7 1 1 4 4 0 0     3 0 36 32 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 0 0 1 0.322 3.470 1.070 2 1.00
27 1958-10-09 WS 7 MLN NYY L 2-6 9.0 8 6 4 3 5 1 0     0 0 40 34 2 0 1 0 2 1 0 1 0 0 -0.322 -1.934 1.116 2 4.00
28 1957-10-10 WS 7 NYY MLN L 0-5 9.0 9 5 3 3 4 1 0     1 1 40 34 1 0 0 0 3 0 1 0 1 0 -0.214 -0.833 .583 5 3.00
29 1956-10-10 WS 7 BRO NYY L 0-9 9.0 10 9 9 4 8 4 1     1 0 42 37 2 0 2 0 1 0 0 1 0 0 -0.270 -4.318 .364 5 9.00
30 1955-10-04 WS 7 NYY BRO L 0-2 9.0 5 2 1 5 4 0 1     3 1 37 29 1 0 1 0 2 1 0 0 1 0 0.123 2.440 .886 3 1.00
31 1952-10-07 WS 7 BRO NYY L 2-4 9.0 10 4 4 2 2 2 0     1 0 39 36 1 0 0 0 1 0 1 0 0 0 -0.190 0.289 .945 3 4.00
32 1945-10-10 WS 7 CHC DET L 3-9 9.0 9 9 9 8 5 0 0     5 2 44 35 3 0 1 0 1 0 0 2 0 0 -0.373 -4.591 .522 6 9.00
33 1934-10-09 WS 7 DET STL L 0-11 9.0 17 11 9 4 4 0 0     5 2 47 43 5 2 0 0 0 0 1 2 1 0 -0.339 -5.799 .457 6 9.00
34 1926-10-10 WS 7 NYY STL L 2-3 9.0 8 3 0 0 2 0 0     0 0 37 34 0 0 0 0 2 1 0 0 1 0 0.087 1.752 1.102 2 0.00
35 1909-10-16 WS 7 DET PIT L 0-8 9.0 7 8 6 10 1 0 0     0 0 46 30 3 1 0 1 4 1 0 4 1 0 -0.291 -4.420 .752 2 6.00
Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 10/6/2011.

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Who do you think will make which list after tonight?

This entry was posted on Thursday, October 6th, 2011 at 11:41 am and is filed under Game Finders. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. Both comments and pings are currently closed.

24 Responses to “Sudden Death Post-Season Games At Home”

  1. Frank Clingenpeel Says:

    A 53% to 47% difference is scarcely something to base a prediction on. If I was having heart surgery based on those odds, I think I would find myself another doctor.

  2. Here's the breakdown by series.

    LDS: 9-8 for visiting team
    LCS: 15-9 for home team
    WS: 18-17 for home team

  3. Home team only 14-20 before 1981.
    2-2 during 1981.
    25-13 after 1981.

  4. In addition to the fact that the World Series has not gone to 7 games since MLB started the "All-Star Game winner gets WS home field advantage", this 18-17 home team record would indicate the home field advantage is not that big a deal in the World Series.

  5. 41 wins and 35 losses is a .539 winning percentage that is effectively identical to the prevailing home field advantage for MLB teams in regular season games. According to b-ref's "Situational Reports" tool (which even predates the PI), the winning percentage of home teams in the 151,000+ regular season games that took place from 1901 through 1999 was .542, and the winning percentage of home teams in the 29,000+ regular season games that took place from 2000 through 2011 was .542. There just seems to be an irresistable set of forces in the nature of MLB that eventually brings home field advantage around to that 54% number.

  6. Home teams over all the World Series games that have been played have a win-loss record of 339-275, a 55% winning percentage. Not a meaningful variation from the 54% winning percentage that prevails for regular season games.

  7. The 6 division winners were 314-172 at home this year. A .646 winning percentage.

    They do have the benefit of playing much weaker teams during the regular season.

  8. The question is, does the home team win because it is home? Or because, based on regular season record at least, it is generally* the better team?

    Philly was 102-60. The Cardinals were 90-72. What is the expected winning percentage, on a neutral field, of a 102-win team facing a 90-win team?

    *I say generally because A) a wild card team can have a better record than a division winner and still play on the road, B) the WS does not use regular season record to determine HFA, C) sometimes the differences in record is neglible or non-existant, and D) the unbalanced schedule can lead to a better team having a worse record.

    Still, I wonder if home teams win more or less expected when we factor in that they are GENERALLY the better team.

  9. You are all forgetting the biggest factor in baseball, the starting pitcher matchups. The Cardinals are a completely different team when Carpenter is pitching compared to Jake Westbrook. Some teams may dominate the regular season with the best overall staff, but if you had to face the 59-97 1972 Phillies in a 5 game series you should calculate the chances that they could win 1 of 3 games because Carlton will win you 2 games.

    The odds for the '72 Phillies to win the games would be ~ 80%, 30%, 30%, 30% 80%.

  10. @8

    E) mid-season roster changes via trade, injury or call-up may mean that the regular season record is not a true reflection of the team's strength

  11. @8: The "log5" formula developed by Bill James decades ago predicts that a .630 winning percentage team playing a .556 wining percentage team willl win at a .576 rate. The log5 formula has been shown to be historically accurate over a large sample of games. A simplified version of the formula (the higher percentage team is expected to win at a rate equal to .500 plus the difference between the two teams' winning percentages) works almost as well and predicts a .630 team playing a .556 team will win at a .574 rate. Of course the reliability of the prediction in the real world assumes that the .630 and .556 numbers are accurate expressions of the respective teams' real relative strength, which for reasons including those that Evan points to may not be an entirely correct assumption in any particular specific application.

  12. @11: Does "log5" formula apply to Home/Road records also?

  13. Birtelcom-

    Thanks. That is very helpful. I'm curious to see what the response to Scott-53's question is.

    I guess the real question is: what is the value of HFA? Does it really exist? If so, what can we attribute it to? I know that "Scorecasting" attempted to tackle this question and found that HFA is almost entirely a result of crowd's influencing ref/umpire decisions. If two completely evenly matched teams faced off, but played all the home games in one team's ballpark, what will the overall record be?

  14. There is no such thing as a .500 team, there is a .700 team with its ace, a .600 team with its #2 starter, a .500 team with its #3 etc. (numbers are just examples)

  15. Topper009-

    For a single game, yes. But over the course of a series...

    Of course, that presumes a series that replicates the conditions of the regular season. Which, barring massive rain delays, we won't have. In fact, we'll probably eventually end up with a series in which teams just pitch their ace every game, since they're given 14 days off inbetween.

  16. @15, this post is about a single game, and a 5 game series is nothing like the full season. You don't use the 5th starter, you might use your ace in relief of the last game, you can start your regular catcher every game etc.

  17. i've always thought there is a built-in advantage to batting last, to being able to end the game by taking the lead in the bottom of half of an inning. just a thought. anyone know how often does the home team wins extra inning games?

  18. @12 The math underlying log5 works with more than 2 inputs. You can start with the teams w/l% adjust for the starting pitchers, and adjust for HFA.

    @17 This has been studied. Iirc, the HFA is less in extra innings. It is clear that batting last has little to do with HFA.

  19. RE: Batting last and HFA, including extra innings. Several in-depth studies have shown that, for the most part, any advantage the home team gains by batting last and possibly employing a one-run strategy (for example) is essentially nullified by fact that defense can employ a one-run preventive strategy as well.

    As for all the other questions about expected win probabilities, who's pitching, has the roster changed, etc -- it's fun to speculate, but hard to generalize, ain't it? (who woulda thunk that guys like Francisco and Goldschmidt would be heroes?)

    That's why we watch the games: the best "reality tv" ever!

  20. Topper-

    True. My point was more about HFA in general, not specifically game 7's.

    If teams typically win 54.2% of home games and home teams typically win 53.9% of Game 7s when (presumably) they are the better team, what does that tell us? Evenly matched opponents would expected to see a 54.2% winning percentage in favor of the home team. Surely a situation where more often than not the home team is also the better team should be above that, no?

  21. Jose Rodriguez Says:

    So home advantage is not real. It's an anybody's game

  22. BSK: The quality difference among post-season teams is usually going to be relatively small, so the extra probability of the home team winning in a sudden-death game because it is the better team is going to be quite small. Small enough that it is likely to show up in a meaningful way only over a very large sample of games, and there are never really going to be enough sudden death games to provide a big enough sample. Unless of course Selig arranges to have a twenty-eight team post-season playoff system that runs from June to December.

  23. BSK: Something else to note is that the team with the better record has only gotten HFA since 1998. I'm guessing that the number of sudden death games where the better team had HFA *because* they were the better team is too small a sample to have a real meaningful impact on the overall numbers.

  24. Topper009 - There is absolutely no way that a pitcher turns a team singlehandedly from a .300 team to a .700 team. It just doesn't work that way. Carlton's year in 72 was a complete fluke. The Phillies weren't really that good when he pitched, they (and he) just had things work out well for them. Things sure evened out for Carlton the next year, didn't they?